The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

Expend4bles, counted today for Friday, September 22. 9 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 3 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 8 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 92 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 103.

Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday = 5 days left for Expend4bles; counted in the same 6 theaters): Angel Has Fallen had 136 sold tickets,
Rambo V had 116,
Plane had 65

and The Protégé had 32 sold tickets.
Beast had after ca. 1 day 27 sold tickets,
M3gan had 45 sold tickets

and The Black Phone had 34 sold tickets.
The Equalizer 3 had with 11 days left 94 in the same 6 theaters.
and The Meg 2 had with 8 days left 73 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters.

 

The numbers overall are ok but it's annoying that it has so far no shows in the most important theater, the AMC in NY. That theater is the best indicator. Let's see how its presales look tomorrow.

Edited September 13, 2023 by el sid

[Hilts]

On 9/12/2023 at 8:51 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-19	3	3	0	5	5	1,224	0.41%
T-18	3	3	0	1	6	1,224	0.49%
T-17	3	3	0	3	9	1,224	0.74%
T-16	3	3	0	0	9	1,224	0.74%
T-15	3	3	0	0	9	1,224	0.74%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-20	17	44	0	45	45	9,049	0.50%
T-19	17	43	0	4	49	8,947	0.55%
T-18	17	43	0	8	57	8,947	0.64%
T-17	17	43	0	2	59	8,947	0.66%
T-16	17	43	0	7	66	8,947	0.74%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.119x	=	$1.23m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.137x	=	$1.21m
Barbie					0.052x	=	$1.16m
Oppenheimer					0.091x	=	$0.96m
Haunted Mansion					0.694x	=	$2.15m
Strays					1.744x	=	$1.92m

 

Comp average = $1.44m

 

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-18	3	3	0	1	6	1,224	0.49%
T-17	3	3	0	3	9	1,224	0.74%
T-16	3	3	0	0	9	1,224	0.74%
T-15	3	3	0	0	9	1,224	0.74%
T-14	3	3	0	-1	8	1,224	0.65%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-19	17	43	0	4	49	8,947	0.55%
T-18	17	43	0	8	57	8,947	0.64%
T-17	17	43	0	2	59	8,947	0.66%
T-16	17	43	0	7	66	8,947	0.74%
T-15	17	43	0	5	71	8,947	0.79%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.113x	=	$1.22m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.138x	=	$1.22m
Barbie					0.051x	=	$1.14m
Oppenheimer					0.092x	=	$0.97m
Haunted Mansion					0.637x	=	$1.97m
Strays					1.795x	=	$1.97m

 

Comp average = $1.42m

[Hilts]

On 9/12/2023 at 8:52 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-27	19	74	0	1	27	15,892	0.17%
T-26	19	74	0	9	36	15,892	0.23%
T-25	19	74	0	-1	35	15,892	0.22%
T-24	19	74	0	1	36	15,892	0.23%
T-23	19	72	0	9	45	15,436	0.29%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.714x	=	$2.21m
Barbie					0.097x	=	$2.05m
Asteroid City					1.406x	=	$1.55m

 

Comp average = $1.94m

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-26	19	74	0	9	36	15,892	0.23%
T-25	19	74	0	-1	35	15,892	0.22%
T-24	19	74	0	1	36	15,892	0.23%
T-23	19	72	0	9	45	15,436	0.29%
T-22	19	72	0	0	45	15,436	0.29%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.563x	=	$1.74m
Barbie					0.087x	=	$1.84m
Asteroid City					1.125x	=	$1.24m

 

Comp average = $1.61m

[Hilts]

On 9/12/2023 at 8:55 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-35	19	154	0	98	10,500	28,259	37.16%
T-34	19	154	0	94	10,594	28,259	37.49%
T-33	19	154	0	94	10,688	28,259	37.82%
T-32	19	154	0	46	10,734	28,259	37.98%
T-31	19	154	0	53	10,787	28,259	38.17%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.091x	=	$23.02m
Oppenheimer					2.215x	=	$23.26m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.577x	=	$25.75m

 

Bonus comp: Barbie (EA only) after 13 days of sales - 19.401x = $21.34m

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-34	19	154	0	94	10,594	28,259	37.49%
T-33	19	154	0	94	10,688	28,259	37.82%
T-32	19	154	0	46	10,734	28,259	37.98%
T-31	19	154	0	53	10,787	28,259	38.17%
T-30	19	154	0	33	10,820	28,259	38.29%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.094x	=	$23.09m
Oppenheimer					2.222x	=	$23.33m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.588x	=	$25.83m

 

Bonus comp: Barbie (EA only) after 14 days of sales - 19.049x = $20.95m

 

[Hilts]

On 9/12/2023 at 8:50 PM, Hilts said:

 

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-5	1	1	0	1	16	563	2.84%
T-4	1	1	0	1	17	563	3.02%
T-3	1	1	0	2	19	563	3.37%
T-2	1	1	0	0	19	563	3.37%
T-1	1	1	0	1	20	563	3.55%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-6	19	50	0	15	67	9,987	0.67%
T-5	19	50	0	20	87	9,987	0.87%
T-4	19	50	0	17	104	9,987	1.04%
T-3	19	50	0	16	120	9,987	1.20%
T-2	23	65	0	45	165	12,292	1.34%
Comps
No Hard Feelings					0.984x	=	$2.12m
Asteroid City					1.121x	=	$1.23m
Haunted Mansion					0.317x	=	$0.98m
Talk To Me					2.055x	=	$2.56m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.527x	=	$1.69m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.569x	=	$1.93m
Strays					0.984x	=	$1.08m
Blue Beetle					0.523x	=	$1.72m
Gran Turismo					1.069x	=	$1.50m
The Equalizer 3					0.500x	=	$1.90m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					2.176x	=	$1.20m
The Nun II					0.869x	=	$2.69m

 

Comp average = $1.72m. 

 

Ok day, held pretty steady overall.

 

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	1	1	0	1	17	563	3.02%
T-3	1	1	0	2	19	563	3.37%
T-2	1	1	0	0	19	563	3.37%
T-1	1	1	0	1	20	563	3.55%
T-0	1	1	0	24	44	563	7.82%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-5	19	50	0	20	87	9,987	0.87%
T-4	19	50	0	17	104	9,987	1.04%
T-3	19	50	0	16	120	9,987	1.20%
T-2	23	65	0	45	165	12,292	1.34%
T-1	23	65	0	36	201	12,292	1.64%
Comps
No Hard Feelings					0.936x	=	$2.01m
Asteroid City					1.063x	=	$1.17m
Haunted Mansion					0.312x	=	$0.99m
Talk To Me					1.740x	=	$2.17m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.472x	=	$1.51m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.167x	=	$1.62m
Strays					0.801x	=	$0.88m
Blue Beetle					0.491x	=	$1.62m
Gran Turismo					1.028x	=	$1.44m
The Equalizer 3					0.432x	=	$1.64m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					2.046x	=	$1.13m
The Nun II					0.695x	=	$2.15m

 

Comp average = $1.53m. Still closely following GT so thinking $1.3m-$1.4m unless there is a big change tomorrow.

 

Not sure how much EA will play into it but with only 1 showing/theatre in my region I would guess minimal impact, maybe $100k max.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
152	422	30348	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.702x) of Talk to Me ~$2.12M THUR Previews

 

(1.291x) of Boogeyman ~$1.42M THUR Previews

 

(0.633x) of Nun II~$1.96M THUR Previews

 

(0.155x) of Haunted Mansion~$481k THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.50M THUR Previews

 

1 seat sold this close to T-0 is odd for sure...Ran the scraper twice still the same results 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
152	477	30348	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.407x) of Talk to Me ~$1.75M THUR Previews

(1.184x) of Boogeyman ~$1.30M THUR Previews

(0.580x) of Nun II~$1.80M THUR Previews

(1.923x) of The Blackening~$1.44M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.57M THUR Previews

 

Early prediction would be $1.5M for now

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	344	25529	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.347x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.08M THUR Previews

 

Finally have a horror comp 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	358	25529	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.356x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.10M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	329	28131	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.266x) of Haunted Mansion ~$825k THUR Previews

 

(0.276x) of RoTB ~$2.43M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.63M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	327	28131	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.640x) of Blue Beetle ~$2.05M THUR Previews

(0.265x) of RoTB ~$2.33M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $2.19M

 

2 refunded tickets

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
139	88	27453	0.32%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.220x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$836k THUR Previews

 

Very very slow start 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-31

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10780	43473	24.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

77

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.803x) of Barbie ~$16.94M FRIDAY for TET

(0.997x) of GOTG3~$17.45M FRIDAY for TET

(0.965x) of ATSV~$16.74M FRIDAY for TET

(1.609x) of TLM~$16.58M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.93M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.70M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10679	43473	24.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.803x) of Barbie ~$16.94M FRIDAY for TET

(0.997x) of GOTG3~$17.45M FRIDAY for TET

(0.965x) of ATSV~$16.74M FRIDAY for TET

(1.609x) of TLM~$16.58M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.93M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.70M

 

Not going to update comps today because the scraper issue is back

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

As for seat availability, it's the one element that I find my region is a little different. Premium showtimes went early here like everywhere else. But because evening IMAX shows were scheduled for Exorcist originally, they only went online a few days later. As a result, they're only at 30-40 capacity. These are the biggest theatres, in the best available format (note, not a universal sentiment I'm sure, as many may prefer the smaller VIP auditoriums perhaps).

 

Each day, the IMAX screens are generally grabbing the most sales due to most available good seats. But it's slow. If there were fans looking for good tickets, it wouldn't be hard to find them in these showings.

 

No, this is a good point and I'm seeing something similar.  There's a theater locally that while recently has been a bit more hit and miss than it used to be still is one of the better selling in the region.  But it also didn't have showtimes up on the first couple of days of sales and thus missed the initial wave/surge.

 

Right now its 6:30pm showing is only at 31/255 and I fully expect it to do much much much better when all is said and done.  This is happening at a couple of other theaters as well.  Seeing this is one of the reasons I do agree that Swifties attention being elsewhere is one of the factors here.  Whether that or lack of availability is truly a bigger factor than another is probs approaching an angels dancing on the head of a pin situation and thus unknowable.  For now.

 

Do have some other thoughts about current daily pace, but I want to see tonight's VMA + 24 hours total before really committing to it. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/12/2023 at 6:06 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

A Haunting in Venice (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	54	38	203	9211	2.2
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	6	23	508	4.53
TOTALS:	56	44	226	9719	2.33

 

Comps:

1.25x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.56 Million

2.19x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.64 Million

1.93x No Hard Feelings: $4.15 Million

1.08x The Equalizer 3: $4.09 Million

0.54x Haunted Mansion: $1.66 Million

1.84x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.01 Million

 

Dropped against all comps except for Haunted Mansion. Final numbers, growth rates, and prediction tomorrow.

 

A Haunting in Venice (T-1):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	57	37	240	9470	2.53
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	32	72	508	14.17
TOTALS:	59	69	312	9978	3.13

 

Growth Rate (%): (Just Thursday)
1-Day:	18.23
3-Day:	90.48

 

Comps (Switching to Thursday only, with the exception of Talk To Me and Haunted Mansion; 1-day and3-day growth rates in parentheses):

 

1.02x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.27 Million (38%, 145%)

1.74x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.3 Million (34%, 130%)

2.07x No Hard Feelings: $4.45 Million (15%, 110%)

0.73x The Equalizer 3: $2.76 Million (57%, 192%)

0.52x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.61 Million (47%, 115%)

1.62x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $890k (20%, 85%)

 

Pacing closest to its least flattering comp, Big Fat Greek Wedding 3. Very unimpressive final week, and I tend to trust M37's wisdom, so if we see Haunted Mansion and Big Fat Greek Wedding as the best comps I have, let's be more pessimistic than others on here: $1.25 Million, +/- $0.2M

[vafrow]

On 9/12/2023 at 6:26 PM, vafrow said:

 

Haunting in Venice, T-2 Thursday preview update, Southern Ontario

 

Tickets sold: 572

New sales: 162

Growth: 40%

Showtimes: 90

Theatres: 48

Tickets per showtime 4.56

 

Comps

1.003x of Equalizer for $3.8M

1.333x of Nun 2 for $4.1M

 

40% jump. Not bad for something that's already performing well locally. I'm doing the update fairly early in the evening as well.

 

 

Haunting in Venice, T-1 (early evening update)Thursday preview update, Southern Ontario

 

Tickets sold: 793

New sales: 221

Growth: 39%

Showtimes: 90

Theatres: 48

Tickets per showtime 8.8

 

Comps

0.893x of Equalizer for $3.4M

0.980x of Nun 2 for $3.0M

1.125x of Gran Turismo for $1.6M

0.683x of Blue Beetle for $2.3M

 

Added other comps because it's been so much higher than others. I think Equalizer and Nun are the better comps, but they did both decline. However, I'm pulling the T-1 early evening, rather than early morning like I usually do. It'll probably be higher by that point. 

 

I'm still at a loss at why this market would overindex for this film.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Haunting in Venice, T-1 (early evening update)Thursday preview update, Southern Ontario 

 

I'm still at a loss at why this market would overindex for this film.

 

Canada being more Anglophile than the States, culturally speaking, works well enough I would think.  Might be superficial to say that the Kenneth Branagh connection (or for that matter Agatha Christie) is stronger in Canada than the US, but as reasons go, I can think of worse/more shallow ones. 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Porthos

[Flip]

we might not have a movie doing 5m+ until the Marvels, yikes. 

[keysersoze123]

56 minutes ago, Flip said:

we might not have a movie doing 5m+ until the Marvels, yikes. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Technically not previews.

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

we might not have a movie doing 5m+ until the Marvels, yikes. 

Even if you don’t count Taylor Swift previews, then you forgot 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Relevation

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Technically not previews.

Come on shows are starting at 6PM. That is later than most previews. Just because its not a thursday does not make it like a normal friday. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Come on shows are starting at 6PM. That is later than most previews. Just because its not a thursday does not make it like a normal friday. 

 

 

===

 

I mean, take it up with Hollywood, not me.  

 

(mind it did take me a few seconds, but — c'mon, it was obvious what Flip was referring to here)