The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 9/25/2023 at 5:23 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-4), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 302

New sales: 36

Growth from yesterday: 14%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 3.02

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

0.984x of Equalizer 3 for $3.7M

 1.373x of Gran Turismo for $1.9M

0.611x of Blue Beetle for $2.0M

0.591x of Saw X for???

0.904x of Paw Patrol for???

 

Morning pull that's only getting posted now.

 

Modest growth, but not unexpected for Sunday overnight. Still probably around $2.0M based on my numbers.

 

It's worth noting that it's now behind Paw Patrol and Saw X for Thursday previews sales.

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-2), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 466

New sales: 164

Growth from yesterday: 54%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 4.66

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

0.818x of Equalizer 3 for $3.1M

 1.043x of Gran Turismo for $1.5M

0.797x of Blue Beetle for $2.6M

1.086x of Nun 2 for 3.4

 

I was hoping for a bit stronger with the reviews. Average of $2.6M.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

This weeks releases. 

 

MTC1 Previews

The Creator - 17827/210190 342879.77 1092 shows

Saw X - 11868/174684 186085.36 1051 shows

 

Paw Patrol does not even have previews. Releases are small and not that much of a pace. I expect Saw X to have better walkups on Thursday as well. Both of them are tracking in 2-3m range previews.  

I think Creator also has early shows 

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

I think Creator also has early shows 

 

7pm Wed.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, across the Jat verse said:

I think Creator also has early shows 

 

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

7pm Wed.

Only two of the 20 theaters I track are having them, same as Haunting in Venice or Haunted Mansion (unlike things like Barbie, TMNT, or MI7, which were much more expansive). I believe the former two both had around $100k in previews, I’m not expecting much more than that for the creator 

[abracadabra1998]

1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Edited September 27, 2023 by abracadabra1998
Ignore this, I’m tired and should go to bed

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Only two of the 20 theaters I track are having them, same as Haunting in Venice or Haunted Mansion (unlike things like Barbie, TMNT, or MI7, which were much more expansive). I believe the former two both had around $100k in previews, I’m not expecting much more than that for the creator 

Barbie should have done 1m+ earlier shows. Just at MTC1 it did closet to 420K. 

 

[eman92]

On 9/26/2023 at 12:37 AM, eman92 said:

Saw X T-3 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Another solid update for Saw X. It sold overall 5 more tickets than The Nun II did at T-3 across the whole weekend. Saw X is now outselling The Nun II by 6 tickets. Interestingly The Nun II is selling extremely strong on Friday, having double its Saturday sales. Where as with Saw X it has a lower amount sold on Friday than The Nun II, but its Saturday numbers are more consistent. I'm not sure if that really means anything, but just found that interesting since The Nun II and Saw X are so close on Thursday's and Sunday's sales, but Friday and Saturday they are different. 

 

As well Saw X is now only 3 ticket sales away from The Nun II's Thursday total. Saw X did lose 1 sale on Sunday as it had 13 tickets sold at T-4. 

 

T-3	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	66	63
Friday	71	61
Saturday	35	53
Sunday	11	12
Total	183	189

 

My AMC finally added more showtimes. It must have happened very late today cause I checked around 6 PM and there were no additional showtimes, but as of midnight they were there, but absolutely 0 tickets sold across all of them, and they added very good times. So I'm guessing they were either added at midnight or close to it. Either way Thursday got an additional 2 times, Friday got 5 times, Saturday got 3 times and Sunday got 4 times. I'm assuming even more showtimes may be added because its quite odd Saturday got fewer showtimes added than Sunday. 

 

0.95x of The Nun II for $2.96M Thursday Preview

1.03x of The Nun II for $33.67M Weekend incl Preview

 

Saw X T-2 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Coming down to the home stretch! Saw X had a very good day of sales at my theater. It outsold The Nun II in ticket sales on T-2 on every day of the weekend. Saw X sold 43 additional tickets vs The Nun II selling 28 tickets. As well Saw X now is ahead of The Nun II on Thursday sales, since Saw X sold an additional 10 Thursday night tickets vs The Nun II only selling an additional 4 on this day. 

 

T-2	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	70	73
Friday	85	78
Saturday	42	63
Sunday	14	18
Total	211	232

 

 

Saw X was 6 tickets ahead of The Nun II on T-3 and now it is 21 tickets ahead. Now, The Nun II did have a very very strong T-1, so I'll be curious to see how Saw X does tomorrow. But if Saw X again increases its lead on The Nun II then I would say we're in for a veryyyyyy interesting weekend. And the fact that Saw X is selling really well on Friday-Sunday I feel like speaks to the fact that its preview numbers on Thursday shouldn't be too over-inflated. 

 

Tomorrow will be very telling for Saw X, I believe the review embargo gets lifted so RottenTomatoes scores will be out. In general there have been social media reactions for the film and they have all been solid so far (But they usually are for most films). So we'll see! Saw X feels like the little engine that could. I just really hope it can pull off a solid weekend

 

1.04x of The Nun II for $3.23M Thursday Preview

1.10x of The Nun II for $35.85M Weekend incl Preview

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

This weeks releases. 

 

MTC1 Previews

The Creator - 17827/210190 342879.77 1092 shows

Saw X - 11868/174684 186085.36 1051 shows

 

Paw Patrol does not even have previews. Releases are small and not that much of a pace. I expect Saw X to have better walkups on Thursday as well. Both of them are tracking in 2-3m range previews.  

The Creator MTC1

Wednesday - 7161/26820 149563.51 102 shows

Previews - 20168/230944 386033.10 1227 shows

 

MTC1 Previews Saw X - 13821/197690 216834.75 1228 shows

MTC1 Paw Patrol the Mighty Movie - 28284/448782 355961.94 3016 shows

 

Paw Patrol friday sales look good to me. it could still win the weekend while Creator should win Previews with early shows for sure. 

[ThomasNicole]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Creator MTC1

Wednesday - 7161/26820 149563.51 102 shows

Previews - 20168/230944 386033.10 1227 shows

 

MTC1 Previews Saw X - 13821/197690 216834.75 1228 shows

MTC1 Paw Patrol the Mighty Movie - 28284/448782 355961.94 3016 shows

 

Paw Patrol friday sales look good to me. it could still win the weekend while Creator should win Previews with early shows for sure. 

Do you think +20M is reasonable for Creator?

 

Sales seems good to me but i always have difficult to read smaller numbers

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	140	10947	18797	7850	41.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	43

NOTE: The sole showing added today was from the local drive-in theater, which is non-reserved seating.

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	81.47		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	37.17%		29.33m	42.53m
Thor 4	133.59		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	46.28%		38.74m	56.18m
BP2	122.12		114	6428		1/294	30596/37024	17.36%		16800	46.73%		34.19m	49.58m
AM3	182.94		119	4291		0/235	28265/32556	13.18%		10475	74.94%		32.01m	46.42m
GOTG3	233.63		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		10750	73.02%		40.89m	59.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-18 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	223.14		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	66.77%
JWD	362.42		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		10966	71.58%
Ava 2	325.46		142	2412		0/142	18926/21338	11.30%		8986	87.36%
AtSV	466.71		81	1682		0/123	18234/19916	8.45%		9744	80.56%
Barbie	535.11		42	1467		0/96	11160/12627	11.62%		12077	65.00%
Oppy	845.91		22	928		0/53	7322/8250	11.25%		4621	169.88%
Barben	327.77		64	2395		0/149	18482/20877	11.47%		16698	47.01%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2264/6150  [36.81% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	144	11135	19107	7972	41.72%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	310
Total Seats Sold Today	122

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	60.03		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		28183	28.29%		30.02m	43.53m
MoM	80.84		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	37.75%		29.10m	42.20m
Thor 4	132.12		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	47.00%		38.31m	55.56m
BP2	121.27		146	6574		1/294	30450/37024	17.76%		16800	47.45%		33.95m	49.23m
AM3	181.59		99	4390		0/235	28166/32556	13.48%		10475	76.11%		31.78m	46.08m
GOTG3	232.22		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		10750	74.16%		40.64m	58.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-17 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	216.98		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		11757	67.81%
JWD	360.07		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	72.70%
Ava 2	317.86		96	2508		0/142	18830/21338	11.75%		8986	88.72%
AtSV	457.63		60	1742		0/123	18177/19919	8.75%		9744	81.81%
Barbie	511.68		91	1558		0/96	11069/12627	12.34%		12077	66.01%
Oppy	819.32		45	973		0/53	7277/8248	11.80%		4621	172.52%
Barben	314.97		136	2531		0/149	18346/20875	12.12%		16698	47.74%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2306/6150  [37.50% sold]

 

====

Came oh so so sooooo close to posting the Denzel Washington "BOOOM" gif as a preview as I was compiling the run, but juuuuuust came up short of my "boom" marker I had set (around 140-150+ or so).

 

As it is though today was more a "statement not a manifesto"* as to the possible power of Taylor Swift's reach on her social channels when it comes to marketing TET. 

*IYKYK

 

...

 

Okay, possibly an overstatement, but still a v good day.  At least compared to the sales of the last few weeks.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Dumb Money T-2: 27.77% Awareness

Five Nights at Freddy's T-30: 37.44%

The Marvels T-44: 47.12%

Trolls Band Together T-51: 40.22%

The Iron Claw T-86: 13.54%

 

The Creator T-2: 31.75% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 43% chance of 10M

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-2: 39.49% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Saw X T-2: 46.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

 

Freelance T-30: 28.66% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

 

Priscilla T-37: 23.97% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

[Hilts]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you do MTC breakdown as well. I am optimistic it will do great in all red belt states and wont be as much coast driven. That is why @Porthos numbers are not as good as yours. 

 

Yeah I was expected a good 2nd day but it exceeded my expectations. Don't have time now unfortunately but for sure will include a breakdown in my next update.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Yeah I was expected a good 2nd day but it exceeded my expectations. Don't have time now unfortunately but for sure will include a breakdown in my next update.

 

FWIW, KotFM sold pretty decently here for a Day 2(.25).

 

Now stands at  157/7153 (2.19% sold) [+32 tickets]

 

Too bad I don't have, like, any remotely decent comps for it.

 

But as I implied last night, I'm monitoring it and seeing how it goes.

[vafrow]

On 9/25/2023 at 5:43 PM, vafrow said:

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, T-4, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 511

New Sales: 115

Growth: 29%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 7.1

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

2.704x of The Nun 2 for $8.4M 

1.664x of Equalizer 3 for $6.3M

1.034x of Blue Beetle for $3.4M

1.250x of T-3 of Haunting in Venice for $1.5M

 

It keeps going up against comps, but I have to think it's over indexing here

 So, I took my last big over index. The problem is that I only have starting from T-3, and I probably won't get a t-3 update in. 

 

It at least gives something closer to norm. 

 

Nun 2 should be the good comp

 I can't think of why it would be such an outlier.

 

Even though they're not comparable on the surface, I'm tempted to say Blue Beetle might be the best comp on the group. There's clearly a fan driven angle here, that might be comic book film comparable for a lesser property.

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, T-2, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 807

New Sales: 296

Growth from Monday: 58%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 11.2

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

1.881x of The Nun 2 for $5.8M 

1.416x of Equalizer 3 for $5.4M

1.072x of Blue Beetle for $3.5M

1.693x of T-3 of Haunting in Venice for $1.7M

 

Average of $4.1M

 

The Blue Beetle comp is the one that's been the most stsble surprisingly. It's still over indexing here, but, I feel this is likely to win the weekend.

 

[vafrow]

On 9/25/2023 at 5:31 PM, vafrow said:

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-4, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 334

New Sales: 73

Growth: 28%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime: 2.96 

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

2.036x Haunted Mansion for $6.3M

0.676x Blue Beetle for $2.2M

0.653x of Saw X for???

1.106x of The Creator for???

 

As the only Thursday preview region, there's not much to really predict here, as I'm not sure if there will be any reporting of this.

 

Still, it's strong for a Thursday preview. 

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-2, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 522

New Sales: 188

Growth from T-4: 56%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime:  4.62

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

1.760x Haunted Mansion for $5.5M

0.693x Blue Beetle for $2.3M

0.647x of Saw X for???

1.120x of The Creator for???

 

As the only area of Thursday previews for this domestically, it's not going to lead to an actual forecast, but it's still performing fantastically well for a Thursday.

[abracadabra1998]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Barbie should have done 1m+ earlier shows. Just at MTC1 it did closet to 420K. 

 

I worded it poorly, I meant Venice and Mansion did $100k in early shows and creator should be closer to that than to movies like Barbie ($1.1 million), TMNT (about $1.5 million), or MI7 (about $2 million)

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Do you think +20M is reasonable for Creator?

 

Sales seems good to me but i always have difficult to read smaller numbers

I think it should. That said I am not too impressed by its pace on T-2. Should have sold few more. 

[keysersoze123]

On 9/25/2023 at 10:03 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1 Previews(T-24) - 10443/276077 204667.17 1661 shows

 

Solid start considering its a 3.5 hr drama. I am feeling good about this having 5m+ previews. How much higher let us see how the pace goes. This also wont be front loaded and so should be good for 40m+ OW. 

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1 Previews(T-23) - 12062/283197 234447.10 1710 shows

 

 

[vafrow]

On 9/25/2023 at 1:28 PM, vafrow said:

Ill try and do a proper post tonight, but Killers of the Flower Moon for Thursday previews has sold 148 tickets across the region, about 48 theatres.

 

97 of those tickets are in the flagship location downtown Toronto. When I checked earlier, it was in the 20s, so it's not likely big groups.

 

Ths people who want to see this want to see it in the best format and location possible.

 

This is about hour 4 or so of being on sale.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon, T-23 (about 48 hours after being on sale)

 

Total sales: 315

New sales: 167

Growth since hour 4: 113%

Theatre Count: 43

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per showtime:  2.53

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Nothing that can really serve as a comp, other than KOTFM being 17.5x Exorcist Believer at T-23 (which was D1 for E:B).

 

Sales are extremely concentrated to IMAX screens, and particularly the big flagship locations. Scotiabank Theatre in downtown Toronto makes up almost 60% of sales with only one screen allocated. Another west end IMAX screen makes up another 10%.

 

 

[jeffthehat]

On 9/26/2023 at 8:41 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-17

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105

Seats sold - 5829

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 33.1%

New sales - 168 (!!) (+3%)

4-day average of new sales - 69.8 tickets/day

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-16

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105

Seats sold - 5983

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 34%

New sales - 152 (+2.6%)

5-day average of new sales - 86.2 tickets/day

 

Should capture the rest of the Tweet bump. For reference these are the two biggest days of sales in my sample since I started tracking at T-37. Apart from the random Deadline/Variety article, there have only been three big promo pushes since this went on sale (two posts from Taylor and the VMA's). Remains to be seen how much more it will get, but I suspect the growth its seeing vs. Marvel movies is more a function of lack of awareness than demand. I think it still has good growth potential in the final week as promo and word-of-mouth should pick up. 

 

Also realized I have a T-2 hour Barbie comp at... one theater lol. It's worthless but for fun

 

1.15x Barbie T-2 hours - $25.6m / $37.2m ATP adjusted (+45%)