The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

On 10/5/2023 at 9:55 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-8) - 535189/795210 11312999.21 4766 shows

Saturday - 462513/1608651 9999352.57 9403 shows

 

Still no sign of acceleration.

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-7) - 537111/796257 11354215.79 4776 shows

Saturday - 465611/1609760 10067049.79 9408 shows

 

 

hmm. Still nothing. 

[Porthos]

On 10/6/2023 at 1:04 AM, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-56 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	10217	10719	502	4.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

25

 

Comp against TET's D1 total:

0.09576x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

---

Daily Pace Check:

0.14368x the amount of tickets TET sold on D4 [174 vs 25]

 

Regal:     178/4145  [4.29% sold]

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-55 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10312	10816	504	4.66%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	97
Total Seats Sold Today	2

 

 

Comp against TET's D1 total:

0.09615x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

 

====

 

WELP!

 

Time to switch to twice a week (and possible once a week) updates!

 

Next update, Sunday night.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 10/6/2023 at 1:06 AM, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	101	13826	15048	1222	8.12%

 

Total Showings Added Today	15
Total Seats Added Today	2809
Total Seats Sold Today	61

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Wick4	186.00		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	22.43%		16.55m
AtSV	83.70		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	12.54%		14.52m
GOTG3	39.33		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		10750	11.37%		6.88m
Flash	147.41		71	829		0/174	23899/24728	3.35%		5327	22.94%		14.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     330/3078  [10.72% sold]
Matinee:    118/926  [12.74% | 9.66% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The GOTG3 comp wasn't nearly as bad as I thought it might be after the switch, so left it in.  Black Adam was waaaay too loltastic, unsurprisingly since it was its first day of sales, so it's being left off for a while.

 

Aside from that gonna be a few days for comps to stabilize so probs for the best to just ignore them for the most part (yeah yeah, "rush to reddit" already made that joke earlier today 😉 ).  Am curious, I must admit, to see just where they stabilize at during the U portion of the pre-sale curve.

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	101	13693	15048	1355	9.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

133

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Wick4	186.90		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	24.87%		16.63m
AtSV	86.91		99	1559		0/123	18343/19902	7.83%		9744	13.91%		15.08m
GOTG3	42.57		76	3183		0/206	26483/29666	10.73%		10750	12.60%		7.45m
Flash	146.49		96	925		0/178	24217/25142	3.68%		5327	25.44%		14.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:     354/3078  [11.50% sold]
Matinee:    126/926  [13.61% | 9.30% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

T-20:  A For Shits and Giggles Comp DO NOT TAKE SERIOUSLY

%

Sold T-20

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Barbie

100.89

80

1343

0/96

11284/12627

10.64%

12077

11.22%

22.50m

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	152	11236	19813	8577	43.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

79

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	47.05		390	18229		0/325	20891/39120	46.60%		28183	30.43%		23.53m	34.11m
MoM	70.94		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	40.62%		25.54m	37.03m
Thor 4	108.10		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	50.57%		31.35m	45.46m
BP2	102.30		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	51.05%		28.64m	41.53m
AM3	148.31		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	81.88%		25.95m	37.63m
GOTG3	194.53		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	79.79%		34.04m	49.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-8 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	172.37		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	72.95%
JWD	240.18		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	78.21%
Ava 2	218.69		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	95.45%
AtSV	310.09		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		9744	88.02%
Barbie	234.22		432	3662		0/179	17666/21378	17.13%		12077	71.02%
Oppy	490.68		116	1748		0/72	8305/10053	17.39%		4621	185.61%
Barben	158.54		548	5410		0/251	25971/31431	17.21%		16698	51.37%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2395/6150  [38.94% sold]

 

===

 

A little under 30 of the tickets sold tonight went to a sole showing that was added recently in the 7pm corridor.  Which is... interesting. Might have been a group sale, might not have been.  Tough to tell, looking at the seat map.

 

Either way, as I said, "interesting." (in multiple directions, really)

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	154	11347	20003	8656	43.27%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	2
Total Net Seats Added Today	190
Total Seats Sold Today	79

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	46.35		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		28183	30.71%		23.18m	33.61m
MoM	68.93		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	40.99%		24.82m	35.98m
Thor 4	104.62		340	8274		0/240	24544/32818	25.21%		16962	51.03%		30.34m	43.99m
BP2	99.39		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	51.52%		27.83m	40.35m
AM3	144.65		201	5984		0/237	26674/32658	18.32%		10475	82.63%		25.31m	36.71m
GOTG3	186.91		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	80.52%		32.71m	47.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-7 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	167.04		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	73.62%
JWD	222.81		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	78.93%
Ava 2	208.38		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	96.33%
AtSV	285.77		263	3029		0/140	19113/22142	13.68%		9744	88.83%
Barbie	211.02		440	4102		0/180	17310/21412	19.16%		12077	71.67%
Oppy	451.30		170	1918		0/73	8229/10147	18.90%		4621	187.32%
Barben	143.79		610	6020		0/253	25539/31559	19.08%		16698	51.84%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2420/6150  [39.35% sold]

[Austin]

I dont track or anything I just lurk, but just checking out my two local Marcus theaters right now and FNAF doesn't even have tickets or showtimes up yet.

 

I don't know of this is a thing for multiple theater chains or what's going on. I was just wondering if something like this might mess up comps if it's more of a widespread issue.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-7) - 537111/796257 11354215.79 4776 shows

Saturday - 465611/1609760 10067049.79 9408 shows

 

 

hmm. Still nothing. 

Something like 30 35 28 perhaps.

[tdangie]

31 minutes ago, Austin said:

I dont track or anything I just lurk, but just checking out my two local Marcus theaters right now and FNAF doesn't even have tickets or showtimes up yet.

 

I don't know of this is a thing for multiple theater chains or what's going on. I was just wondering if something like this might mess up comps if it's more of a widespread issue.

https://x.com/FillyFoxTM/status/1710468671427006669?s=20

Welp at least the chain is aware that it's coming out.

[M37]

On 9/30/2023 at 10:16 AM, M37 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour T-14 Update

Not much has changed, but here's the chart [See important notes/caveats in above post]

 

If you look closely, can see a slight bump around T-17 & 16 when Taylor tweeted about the international release, but that's about it. The average of all updated data points went from $27.69M at T-21 to $27.83M as of T-14 ... just not a whole lot of growth

 

Time to get a bit nerdy

  Reveal hidden contents

One of the main reasons that I focus so much on growth rate is because I have found that metric to be generally predicable - in the same way that one can reasonably project a total gross from an opening weekend, within a margin of error, where exceptions and outliers exist

 

... and ERAS is an extreme low end outlier in that regard. Here are the grown rates from T-21 to T-14 for Alpha/MTC1 for the MCU, the only potentially comparable franchise (as most GA friendly films manage at least +20% over that time period)

• BPWF = +14.1%
• Strange MoM = +12.9%
• GOTG3 = +12.8%
• AMWQ = +12.7%
• Swift ERAS = +1.9% (!!!)

While the outlier status reduces confidence level in the math, will go ahead and pencil an expected T-7 MTC1 update of ~540-542K sold, and a final number that should top 600K, though probably not by much (600-620K) [though I wouldn't be surprised if capacity limitations reduced growth potential even further, kept it slightly under in the 590K range.]

 

Similarly, I expect Sacto to be at ~8.8-9.0K at T-7, and a final total in the 15.5-17K range. Drafthouse is on a trajectory to remain a low end outlier through the sales period, but that sample is often more volatile in market share (remember Barbie running alongside DrS-MoM?)

 

Those two expected final totals do suggest ~$40M for Friday OD, perhaps lower $40s most likely. Cant really see any path to $50M from here

 

With all that data & analysis - and a similar process for sales for Sat & Sun - the weekend projection comes more into focus, and can roll out the Forecast Matrix

Swift ERAS Forecast Matrix (T-14)		Friday Opening Day Gross Range
		$35.0	$36.5	$38.0	$39.5	$41.0	$42.5	$44.0	$45.5	$47.0
Fri / Wknd Ratio (IM)	2.50	$87.5	$91.3	$95.0	$98.8	$102.5	$106.3	$110.0	$113.8	$117.5
	2.70	$94.5	$98.6	$102.6	$106.7	$110.7	$114.8	$118.8	$122.9	$126.9
	2.90	$101.5	$105.9	$110.2	$114.6	$118.9	$123.3	$127.6	$132.0	$136.3
	3.10	$108.5	$113.2	$117.8	$122.5	$127.1	$131.8	$136.4	$141.1	$145.7
	3.30	$115.5	$120.5	$125.4	$130.4	$135.3	$140.3	$145.2	$150.2	$155.1
	3.50	$122.5	$127.8	$133.0	$138.3	$143.5	$148.8	$154.0	$159.3	$164.5
	3.70	$129.5	$135.1	$140.6	$146.2	$151.7	$157.3	$162.8	$168.4	$173.9
	3.90	$136.5	$142.4	$148.2	$154.1	$159.9	$165.8	$171.6	$177.5	$183.3
	4.10	$143.5	$149.7	$155.8	$162.0	$168.1	$174.3	$180.4	$186.6	$192.7

 

October OW record (Joker, $96.2M) seems a foregone conclusion, and probably the 3rd highest OW of the year (and at worst 5th), despite a day less of shows, but with higher ATP to make up for it
 

  Reveal hidden contents

Oh, and just a friendly reminder that there's still time to vote in this club

 

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour T-7 Update

Chart here

As a reminder, these values are compared to final totals for each film, and so can only go up, not down, and have a ballpark ATP Adjustment of +50% for all markets, except Alpha at +40%

Also, while leaving those data points on the chart, I've removed the Drafthouse values from the average, as it appears to be a significant under-index for this title

 

Over the last week there has been nearly zero indication of any acceleration in pace of sales. Not a single sample grew more than 9% in total sales from T-14 to T-7, with many seeing a nearly flat growth rate as compared to the T-21 to T-14 period. That lack of upward trajectory this late is very unusual, and doesn't portend well for much of a shift in the final week (though perhaps the "No refunds" policy is pushing some of the typical mid-range buyers later in the cycle?).

 

At this point, I think its more likely than not that MTC1 stays under 600K at final for Friday (+10% final week = 590K), and barring some major shift in pace, its unlikely these market values come even close to a convergence, which makes determining a precise estimate more difficult.

 

Also concerning: the lack of growth nor acceleration in Saturday sales, where again capacity is far less of limiting factor. That should be a more walk-up friendly sales day by far, so it should at least match Friday (despite nearly double the show volume), but perhaps not by much more, which lowers the IM value off wherever Friday lands. Overall, the forecast has been lowered to reflect the apparent reality that there is limited demand beyond tickets already purchased

 

Swift ERAS Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Friday Opening Day Gross Range
		$33.0	$34.3	$35.5	$36.8	$38.0	$39.3	$40.5	$41.8	$43.0
Fri / Wknd Ratio (IM)	2.30	$75.9	$78.8	$81.7	$84.5	$87.4	$90.3	$93.2	$96.0	$98.9
	2.45	$80.9	$83.9	$87.0	$90.0	$93.1	$96.2	$99.2	$102.3	$105.4
	2.60	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.8	$102.1	$105.3	$108.6	$111.8
	2.75	$90.8	$94.2	$97.6	$101.1	$104.5	$107.9	$111.4	$114.8	$118.3
	2.90	$95.7	$99.3	$103.0	$106.6	$110.2	$113.8	$117.5	$121.1	$124.7
	3.05	$100.7	$104.5	$108.3	$112.1	$115.9	$119.7	$123.5	$127.3	$131.2
	3.20	$105.6	$109.6	$113.6	$117.6	$121.6	$125.6	$129.6	$133.6	$137.6
	3.35	$110.6	$114.7	$118.9	$123.1	$127.3	$131.5	$135.7	$139.9	$144.1
	3.50	$115.5	$119.9	$124.3	$128.6	$133.0	$137.4	$141.8	$146.1	$150.5

 

We're probably still getting the first ever $100M October OW ever, but my confidence in that prospect has definitely lowered

[vafrow]

Some Cineplex updates and Canada in general.

 

Still nothing for sale on FNAF. This applies for Landmark Cinemas as well.

 

It's been almost a full week of it being on sale in the states. I'd also say that the weekend before Halloween is one where you'd want to offer people the opportunity to lock in their plans. I'm finding the approach here surprising. I'm hoping by waiting though, that they'll be upping the capacity.

 

On the Swift sales, no movement on the matinee decision. They're still unavailable. And, the two theatres that did open them up again seemed to have shut it down.

 

We're 3 days away from the point when full schedules go up for next weekend. I imagine clarity will be received prior to then.

 

Eyeballing Swift sales, I'm finding similar results to what others are seeing. There's some sales here and there, but not the type of growth you'd expect at this stage. 

 

I'm very curious what they do with their screen allocation strategy here. More screens will get added on Tuesday, but I don't expect they'll see any real activity until day of walk ups. 

[Relevation]

On 9/21/2023 at 9:47 PM, Relevation said:

Gonna explore the question of where TS:Eras comps could end at in this post.

 

It’s been on a slow decline in comps every day for the last few weeks and the current T-# comps (with a 1.45x adjustment to calculate for ATP) have it at $45-54M FRI at @Porthos’s market and $60M FRI at @TheFlatLannister’s market. The bleeding appears to have been stopped in Orlando with comps stabilizing while Sacramento continues to slowly slide. Looking at these, I think heading into T-7 we can expect a roughly 3% rate of daily decline every day assuming Taylor doesn’t start some massive promo push. That’s 16 days of straight daily declines of 3% which would result in erosion of 40% by the time we get to T-7. So I predict we’ll be sitting around like $27-37M at T-7. From there it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens with that final week. Are there huge walkups as more casual fans buy their tickets? Does Taylor begin promoting it leading to higher awareness? Do comps just collapse? 
 

I do not think comps will collapse since there are still a huge contingent of casual Taylor fans who aren’t gonna buy the tickets at jump but still want to go, but it really depends as to how strong the late game sales are. I think there are 4 potential scenarios.

 

SCENARIO #1 - COMPS CONTINUE SLIDING FURTHER

For curiosity’s sake, let’s say comps just continue sliding further at their slow descent. In this scenario, comps continue sliding at the 3% rate of decline which would probably end comps at $22-30M for FRI. That off a 4.5-5x IM for Friday would probably yield a $110-135M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #2 - COMPS HOLD STEADY

In this outcome, let’s say that the walkups for The Eras Tour are just as straightforward as a normal MCU blockbuster and ergo, comps remain steady. If comps hold up around $27-37M for FRI then a 4.5-5x IM from Friday would result in an opening weekend for The Eras Tour of about $135-167M.

 

SCENARIO #3 - COMPS SEE SOME GROWTH

Now let’s explore the scenario in which the walkups for the Eras Tour do come in moderately strong force. The more casual fans decide to start buying their tickets late, the hype for the concert movie hits more of a pitch, and it can manage some moderate 5% daily growth heading into T-0. This would result in a strong 40% gain over that last week and bring comps back up to $38-52M for FRI. A 4.5-5x IM off that would get this to a massive $190-234M opening weekend.

 

SCENARIO #4 - COMPS SURGE WITH INSANE WALKUPS

And finally, let’s explore the optimistic scenario where Taylor Swift decides to put her full marketing force towards this concert movie. The casual fans come out in full force to buy tickets in the final week, the anticipation spikes, and the comps surge with 7.5% daily growth in the final week. That would send comps soaring 67% in the last week to a $45-62M FRI. And that gargantuan total off a 4.5x to 5x IM would send this to a $225-280M opening weekend.

 

In conclusion, I don’t think we can definitively rule out any of those scenarios from occurring when this movie reaches its final week because it depends on a myriad of X factors that we simply don’t know yet. However, I think I’ve explored the 4 potential paths this could take in that last week to hopefully get a sense of what this could do as that Oct 13 release looms.

Revisiting this post, turns out I was actually a tad bearish on how high comps would be hitting T-7. Pulling the T-7 comps from @Hilts, @Porthos, and @TheFlatLannister, TS:ERAS is coasting around $30-40M FRI as of right now. I’m gonna pull up that lower end to $35M since most T-0 comps have it getting pretty close there, and since comps can’t go down with T-0 I find it very unlikely it’ll fall that low.
 

T-8 to T-7 pace wasn’t very good and unless some serious pace reversal takes place, scenario 4 is very unlikely. TE stabilized against the GOTG3 Orlando comp and the OK Barbie(EA) comps today which is good, but Sacto is still falling and MTC-1 pace is anemic. Saturday sales are also just not great compared to FRI and that could be attributed to lack of demand rather than any other factors since capacity is no longer a problem. I still think the casual Tay walkups later in the week will start coming at some point and the initial volume was sooooooooo high that under $100M feels very unlikely to me. However, $200M+ is totally not happening and Barbie seems like a tough ask.
 

The stabilization in Orlando and OK combined with the general small pickup in sales over the last week is putting me closer to saying Scenario 2 is the likely outcome here, where comps just hold up at $35-40M FRI. However, Saturday being so anemic means it won’t get close to those really high IM estimates I threw out for it. Wagering a 3.25-3.5x range here off $35-40M for FRI, I’ll wager a guess as of now for $120-135M for the weekend. 

[Porthos]

On 9/30/2023 at 10:23 AM, Porthos said:

 

8 days later (I wanted to re-harmonize to week-before release increments) at T-14, let's see if that social media post/NFL flurry moved the needle much for Sat/Sun....

 

(all sampling taken last night)

Fri:    8185/19642 (41.67% sold) [+498]

Sat:   7482/41308 (18.11% sold) [+512] (91.41% of the sales of Friday) [+0.74%]

Sun:  5134/40157 (12.78% sold) [+345] (62.72% of the sales of Friday) [+0.42%] (68.62% of the sales of Saturday) [-0.9%]

 

.... annnnnd, not especially.  Still seeing a very slight Sat gain (though not as fast as it was) with Sun barely gaining on the Fri percentage but starting to slip against the Sat one.

 

But in the end, the pacing wasn't changed all the much.  Or rather, Sat/Sun sales more or less mirrored the same bump that Fri sales saw without any meaningful difference one way or the other.

 

If I do another of these, and that's very much an open question with The Marvels added to the mix, I'll do a last one at T-1 as I don't want to mix final tracking Fri sales numbers with late night Sat/Sun numbers.  With that preamble out of the way, here is another insane pull taken last night:

 

(all sampling taken last night)

Fri:    8656/20003 (43.27% sold) [+471]

Sat:   8001/41736 (19.17% sold)   [+519] (92.43% of the sales of Friday) [+1.02%]

Sun:  5570/40813 (13.65% sold)  [+436] (64.35% of the sales of Friday) [+1.63%] (69.62% of the sales of Saturday) [+1.00%])

 

Slight pick up of pace on Fri (67.3 tickets per day versus 62.3 tickets per day).  A bit better pickup on pace for Sat (74.1 tickets per day versus 64.0 tickets per day).   Is looking like some real Sunday growth, finally, as it's starting to catch up with Fri sales pace (62.3 tickets per day versus 30.6 tickets per day).

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-11	20	164	118	11,911	29,080	40.96%	1.00%
T-10	20	166	87	11,998	29,294	40.96%	0.73%
T-9	24	185	355	12,353	31,189	39.61%	2.96%
T-8	24	185	54	12,407	31,189	39.78%	0.44%
T-7	24	185	104	12,511	31,189	40.11%	0.84%
MTC1	7	67	+44	7,041	11,518	61.13%
MTC2	4	41	+12	1,955	6,420	30.45%
MTC3	3	34	+31	2,252	6,396	35.21%
Other	10	43	+17	1,263	6,855	18.42%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.265x	=	$26.70m	$40.05m
Oppenheimer				2.570x	=	$26.98m	$40.47m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.148x	=	$29.87m	$44.80m
T-7 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.238x	=	$20.06m	$30.09m

 

*+50%

 

Alright picked back up again a little today.

 

On 10/1/2023 at 9:13 PM, Hilts said:

Saturday (+7 days of sales)

332 showings (+4)

6,921 total sold (+302)

58.7% of Friday (previously 58.4%)

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-10	20	166	87	11,998	29,294	40.96%	0.73%
T-9	24	185	355	12,353	31,189	39.61%	2.96%
T-8	24	185	54	12,407	31,189	39.78%	0.44%
T-7	24	185	104	12,511	31,189	40.11%	0.84%
T-6	24	185	69	12,580	31,228	40.28%	0.55%
MTC1	7	67	+26	7,067	11,518	61.36%	0.37%
MTC2	4	41	+5	1,960	6,420	30.53%	0.26%
MTC3	3	34	+16	2,268	6,396	35.46%	0.71%
Other	10	43	+22	1,285	6,894	18.64%	1.74%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.272x	=	$26.85m	$40.27m
Oppenheimer				2.584x	=	$27.13m	$40.69m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.171x	=	$30.03m	$45.05m
T-6 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.023x	=	$19.83m	$29.74m

 

Saturday (+6 days of sales)

370 showings

7,586 total sold (+665)

60.3% of Friday (previously 58.7%)

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-17	21	82	70	1,118	15,266	7.32%	6.68%
T-16	21	82	162	1,280	15,266	8.38%	14.49%
T-15	21	82	70	1,350	15,266	8.84%	5.47%
T-14	21	82	81	1,431	15,266	9.37%	6.00%
T-13	21	82	114	1,545	15,266	10.12%	7.97%
MTC1	8	32	+67	667	5,897	11.31%
MTC2	4	18	+5	298	3,132	9.51%
MTC3	3	18	+31	418	3,798	11.01%
Other	6	14	+11	162	2,439	6.64%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.601x	=	$16.81m
Barbie					0.858x	=	$19.05m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.348x	=	$20.66m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.660x	=	$11.95m
Sound of Freedom					1.402x	=	$7.29m

 

And back to beating all comps again. Reminder for newcomers - major overindex here.

 

Reason I am keeping SoF is that also overperformed here (mostly due to the pay-it-forward I assume) so may be a reasonable indicator, maybe not. That was a Tuesday (or Monday?) opening so bear that in mind. Starts to pick up tomorrow and then a bigger ramp up from T-7 onward so that may be an interesting comparison.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-16	21	82	162	1,280	15,266	8.38%	14.49%
T-15	21	82	70	1,350	15,266	8.84%	5.47%
T-14	21	82	81	1,431	15,266	9.37%	6.00%
T-13	21	82	114	1,545	15,266	10.12%	7.97%
T-12	21	82	69	1,614	15,266	10.57%	4.47%
MTC1	8	32	+42	709	5,897	12.02%	6.30%
MTC2	4	18	+6	304	3,132	9.71%	2.01%
MTC3	3	18	+15	433	3,798	11.40%	3.59%
Other	6	14	+6	168	2,439	6.89%	3.70%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.543x	=	$16.20m
Barbie					0.856x	=	$19.00m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.388x	=	$21.01m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.671x	=	$12.03m
Sound of Freedom					1.341x	=	$6.97m

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-24	16	64	156	351	10,818	3.24%	80.00%
T-23	16	64	123	474	10,818	4.38%	35.04%
T-22	16	67	103	577	11,157	5.17%	21.73%
T-21	16	67	73	650	11,157	5.83%	12.65%
T-20	16	72	50	700	11,880	5.89%	7.69%
MTC1	7	21	+19	312	2,213	14.10%
MTC2	4	26	+6	139	4,227	3.29%
MTC3	3	20	+22	196	4,277	4.58%
Other	2	5	+3	53	1,163	4.56%
Comps
Asteroid City					14.000x	=	$15.40m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.966x	=	$17.30m
Barbie					0.607x	=	$13.47m
Haunted Mansion					7.292x	=	$22.60m
Oppenheimer					1.014x	=	$10.65m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.975x	=	$7.02m
Killers of the Flower Moon					0.831x

 

Similar story to yesterday. MTC2 added a few shows. Removed Exorcist comp as now we know the number it is spitting out a ridiculous figure. May add it back later once it has more activity as the longer presale window had quite a lull around this time for about a week.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-23	16	64	123	474	10,818	4.38%	35.04%
T-22	16	67	103	577	11,157	5.17%	21.73%
T-21	16	67	73	650	11,157	5.83%	12.65%
T-20	16	72	50	700	11,880	5.89%	7.69%
T-19	19	83	67	767	13,196	5.81%	9.57%
MTC1	7	21	+35	347	2,213	15.68%	11.22%
MTC2	4	29	+16	155	4,653	3.33%	11.51%
MTC3	3	20	+10	206	4,277	4.82%	5.10%
Other	5	13	+6	59	2,053	2.87%	11.32%
Comps
Asteroid City					14.204x	=	$15.62m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.813x	=	$15.96m
Barbie					0.617x	=	$13.70m
Haunted Mansion					7.747x	=	$24.02m
Oppenheimer					1.061x	=	$11.14m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.030x	=	$7.41m
Killers of the Flower Moon					0.803x

 

Pretty even sales numbers from each pull today.

[Hilts]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:22 PM, Hilts said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-60	17	57	0	225	225	12,529	1.80%
T-59	17	56	0	78	303	12,333	2.46%
T-58	17	57	0	36	339	12,432	2.73%

 

MTC1	7	18	0		245	3,812	6.43%
MTC2	4	21	0		24	3,975	0.60%
MTC3	3	14	0		40	3,518	1.14%
Other	3	4	0		30	1,127	2.66%

 

Day 1 Comp
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour					0.055x

 

Similar story to FNAF, early signs of MTC1 overindex and lower than usual show count. Plenty of time to change that though.

 

On 10/2/2023 at 10:54 PM, Hilts said:

Friday

122 showings

167 total sold

74.2% of Thursday

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-59	17	56	78	303	12,333	2.46%	34.67%
T-58	17	57	36	339	12,432	2.73%	11.88%
T-57	17	57	22	361	12,432	2.90%	6.49%
T-56	17	57	10	371	12,432	2.98%	2.77%
T-55	17	58	9	380	12,530	3.03%	2.43%
MTC1	7	19	+8	270	3,910	6.91%	3.05%
MTC2	4	21	0	31	3,975	0.78%	0.00%
MTC3	3	14	+1	44	3,518	1.25%	2.33%
Other	3	4	0	35	1,127	3.11%	0.00%
Day 1 Comp
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour					0.062x

 

Friday (+5 days of sales)

131 showings (+9)

295 total sold (+128)

77.6% of Thursday (previously 74.2%)

Edited October 7, 2023 by Hilts

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	1973	30059	6.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

117

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(1.128x) of Flash~$10.94M THUR Previews

(0.754x) of ATSV ~$13.08M THUR Previews

(1.494x) of Fast X~$11.20M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.74M

 

Super strong day 6

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	2022	30059	6.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(1.068x) of Flash~$10.36M THUR Previews

(0.747x) of ATSV ~$12.96M THUR Previews

(1.496x) of Fast X~$11.22M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.51M

 

First real "slow" day

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	488	24356	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.347x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.64M THUR Previews

(0.924x) of Blue Beetle ~$3.05M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.35M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	506	24356	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.348x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.65M THUR Previews

(0.930x) of Blue Beetle ~$3.07M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.36M 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/6/2023 at 6:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11849	43831	27.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

109

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.806x) of GOTG3~$31.61M FRIDAY for TET

(2.774x) of ATSV ~$48.12M FRIDAY for TET 

(3.713x) of TLM~$38.25M FRIDAY for TET 

(2.276x) of Barbie~$48.02M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $41.5M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $58.10M

 

First real sign of some acceleration. Added Barbie comp 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11942	43831	27.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

93

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.716x) of GOTG3~$30.02M FRIDAY for TET

(2.580x) of ATSV~$44.76M FRIDAY for TET

(3.533x) of TLM~$36.39M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.669x) of Barbie with EA~$37.23M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $37.1M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $51.94M

 

Fell drastically against all comps today. Changed Barbie and added its EA. 

Edited October 7, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews(T-20) - 33681/181395 469247.61 1278 shows +2037

Friday - 37556/334420 531243.62 2191 shows +3487

 

This is still excellent. 

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews(T-19) - 35214/191232 491049.4 1337 shows +1533

Friday - 40068/341600 569990.78 2225 shows +2512

 

At last its slowing down. I will slow down my updates until closer to release. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-7) - 537111/796257 11354215.79 4776 shows

Saturday - 465611/1609760 10067049.79 9408 shows

 

 

hmm. Still nothing. 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-6) - 538839/797150 11390510.71 4782 shows

Saturday - 468861/1609758 10137613.29 9408 shows