The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Giorno]

1 minute ago, Dreamss said:

What about $40 million? It’s insane that it’s going to do way less than Eras. I was expecting it to do at least half of Eras. A streaming service release would have been more dignified 

Any money it makes is a plus, it's not a real movie that spent tens of millions In production and marketing 

[abracadabra1998]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, "be careful what you wish for", and all that.

 

posted this at T-7:

 

 

and it didn't meaningfully change last night.  

 

KOTFM T-6:

446/7469 (5.97% sold) [+21 tickets]

 

.65492x Nope at T-6               [4.19m]

.21535x Oppenheimer at T-6 [2.26m]

 

Unsurprisingly the Nope comp fell to 4.19m while the Oppenheimer comp (as unsuitable as it is — more on this below) more or less stayed flat at 2.26m.

 

While Oppenheimer should be a natural, and indeed perhaps ideal, comp, the situation surrounding it makes it... suspect.  Nationally you had the meme-tastic factor.  Locally, one of the biggest screen crunches I have seen for a film that wasn't a blockbuster, sellout, or other type of weird monster.  Hell, we just saw how Oppenheimer + ATP adj was the sole movie I had which even came close to correctly forecasting TET Friday (curious to see the Fri Actuals, in fact).  

 

KOTFM is many things, but something along those lines it isn't.  Locally at least.

 

Now the tale of this particular tape very likely isn't gonna get written until MTW, or T-3 or so, but gun to my head probs looking somewhere in the mid-3s right now.  But I have so few of these types of films recently (that I kept data on), it's hard to say.   Could break out, could just sit there.

 

Might dig into older thread to find my Creed 3 info that I posted on BOT, as unsuitable as that might be.  Could be a couple of other films as well.

 

...

 

Will say I am leaning to posting Q&D data here, yes.  But as I implied, probs starting on Monday Night (T-3).
 

 

I definitely missed this update with all the T-Swift stuff, thanks!

 

On a related note, this coming Thursday is off schools for every child in Minnesota, which means many school staff is out and parents sometimes take off work (not uncommon for people to do a long weekend), so I’ve been thinking about how that’s a wrinkle and might affect my numbers. Don’t know if I’ll trust them as much as I usually do  

[Wandavisionlover0924]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-38

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	250	26289	0.95%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

95

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

nothing lol

 

Much better day 2

Do animation cartoon movie  usually have amazing pre-sales. Specifically non-IP ones?

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Wandavisionlover0924 said:

Do animation cartoon movie  usually have amazing pre-sales. Specifically non-IP ones?

Nope. But here in Orlando there is an AMC theater inside Disney World resort where these movies sell well even early on for obvious reasons. Otherwise its not going to sell much until final 2 weeks and neither will it have significant previews. So far Wish is even worse than Elemental which itself had terrible presales. But its better than Ruby Gillman :-)

[Bobzaruni]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nope. But here in Orlando there is an AMC theater inside Disney World resort where these movies sell well even early on for obvious reasons. Otherwise its not going to sell much until final 2 weeks and neither will it have significant previews. So far Wish is even worse than Elemental which itself had terrible presales. But its better than Ruby Gillman 🙂

did Ruby Gilman or Elemental have shorter windows?

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

did Ruby Gilman or Elemental have shorter windows?

I believe both did have shorter windows

[Grebacio]

2 hours ago, Bobzaruni said:

did Ruby Gilman or Elemental have shorter windows?

Ruby had 17 days.
Elemental 29 days

[BOfficeStats]

5 hours ago, Dreamss said:

What about $40 million? It’s insane that it’s going to do way less than Eras. I was expecting it to do at least half of Eras. A streaming service release would have been more dignified 

Was there any reason to believe that Renaissance would open even remotely close to The Eras Tour?  The first day of Renaissance presales were around 1/6th of The Eras Tour, indicating far lower demand.  

Edited October 15, 2023 by BOfficeStats

[misterpepp]

Freelance tix on sale Oct 18

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26779	27515	736	2.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	202
Total Seats Sold Today	45

 

Day 4 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.05		116	1337		0/96	14206/15543	8.60%		6409	11.48%		5.91m
GOTG3	29.88		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	6.85%		5.23m
TLM	109.69		59	671		0/154	21323/21994	3.05%		6561	11.22%		11.30m
AtSV	50.41		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	7.55%		8.75m
Flash	79.57		96	925		0/178	24217/25142	3.68%		5327	13.82%		7.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        86/8661  [0.99% sold]
Matinee:    25/2547  [0.98% | 3.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:            54/4989  [1.08% | 7.34% of all tickets sold]

===

 

Switching to T-x comps and, GULP, bringing in the Indy 5 comp starting tomorrow...

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting'

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26754	27515	761	2.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

25

 

T-26 Comps:

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GOTG3	28.77		88	2645		0/206	27026/29671	8.91%		10750	7.08%		5.03m
TLM	113.41		59	671		0/154	21323/21994	3.05%		6561	11.60%		11.68m
Indy 5	97.56		27	780		0/124	18747/19527	3.99%		4767	15.96%		7.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     98/8661  [1.13% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.68% of all tickets sold]
3D:            56/4989  [1.12% | 7.36% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Given the lead time Indy 5 had on The Marvels, could have been worse, I suppose (GOTG3's difference is "just" a day's worth of pre-sales, though at this level of sales, even that matters somewhat).  Now to see how it weathers the U-curve (Eternals and The Flash had not yet started their pre-sale runs).

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13286	15271	1985	13.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

107

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	203.59		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	44.17%		15.27m
Scrm6	281.96		48	704		0/78	9156/9860	7.14%		3134	63.34%		16.07m
Wick4	161.25		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	36.44%		14.35m
AtSV	95.94		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	20.37%		16.65m
GOTG3	53.98		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		10750	18.47%		9.45m
Flash	154.96		54	1281		0/178	23867/25148	5.09%		5327	37.26%		15.03m
Barbie	92.93		147	2136		0/99	10577/12713	16.80%		12077	16.44%		20.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     460/3078  [14.94% sold]
Matinee:    167/926  [18.03% | 8.41% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Just imagine how many tickets this would be selling if Universal actually had a standard promotion schedule behind it!

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13203	15271	2068	13.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	200.78		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	46.02%		15.06m
Scrm6	282.13		29	733		0/78	9127/9860	7.43%		3134	65.99%		16.08m
Wick4	161.06		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	37.96%		14.33m
AtSV	96.01		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	21.22%		16.66m
GOTG3	54.83		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	19.24%		9.59m
Flash	157.86		29	1310		0/178	23838/25148	5.21%		5327	38.82%		15.31m
Barbie	89.91		164	2300		0/99	10413/12713	18.09%		12077	17.12%		20.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:     469/3078  [15.24% sold]
Matinee:    172/926  [18.57% | 8.32% of all tickets sold]

[Jake4]

11 hours ago, Dreamss said:

What about $40 million? It’s insane that it’s going to do way less than Eras. I was expecting it to do at least half of Eras. A streaming service release would have been more dignified 

The eras tour is not the norm for concert films...renaissance will be on part with every other concert film. It just means taylor is having a unique moment that is singular to her and her alone. As someone said, renaissance film will make money but most importantly her fans who are already going will enjoy it

[vafrow]

I was going back and looking at various TET estimates in this thread, and while focus was always on the Friday opening number, attempts at guessing the IM multiplier was less than great. I was estimating 3.25x Friday, and was on the lower end, and even excluding the Thursday previews , the final results are going to be much lower, between 2.5-2.6x.

 

Not having traditional Thursday previews, and assumptions that longer length and limited capacity would push more Saturday sales were the flawed assumptions.

[Dreamss]

You guys are literal geniuses 

https://x.com/discussingfilm/status/1713573485824352649?s=46&t=N_YThayLyU484h0C-h8soQ

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

While Oppenheimer should be a natural, and indeed perhaps ideal, comp, the situation surrounding it makes it... suspect.  Nationally you had the meme-tastic factor.  Locally, one of the biggest screen crunches I have seen for a film that wasn't a blockbuster, sellout, or other type of weird monster.  Hell, we just saw how Oppenheimer + ATP adj was the sole movie I had which even came close to correctly forecasting TET Friday (curious to see the Fri Actuals, in fact).  

Oppenheimer was capacity constrained in several markets. That impacted in really bad final day walkups. Even Barbie had mediocre final day bump for the same reasons. But overall presales were off the charts for number of shows these 2 movies had. As I posted back then combined number of shows for B+O was less than what Thor 4 had an year ago. 

[Boxofficerules]

I feel like I'm the only person hyped for Thanksgiving.

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-25):

 

533 tickets sold (10 locations)/+24 YD

 

Comp:

0.736 x (D-25) Oppenheimer = $7.73m

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13203	15271	2068	13.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	200.78		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	46.02%		15.06m
Scrm6	282.13		29	733		0/78	9127/9860	7.43%		3134	65.99%		16.08m
Wick4	161.06		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	37.96%		14.33m
AtSV	96.01		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	21.22%		16.66m
GOTG3	54.83		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	19.24%		9.59m
Flash	157.86		29	1310		0/178	23838/25148	5.21%		5327	38.82%		15.31m
Barbie	89.91		164	2300		0/99	10413/12713	18.09%		12077	17.12%		20.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:     469/3078  [15.24% sold]
Matinee:    172/926  [18.57% | 8.32% of all tickets sold]

You need to start adjusting for ATP. This has the lowest ATP for any movie I have tracked that is looking big. Its not even close. 

 

Also charlie/your predictions will get criticized when the previews dont hit the highs predicted here. 

 

Edited October 15, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

I feel like I'm the only person hyped for Thanksgiving.

I am! 
 

My most anticipated film for the rest of the year. 
 

(All of us Strangers is a 2024 release here unfortunately). 

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	25	94	183	1,994	16,611	12.00%	10.10%
T-8	25	99	129	2,123	17,347	12.24%	6.47%
T-7	25	100	183	2,306	17,929	12.86%	8.62%
T-6	25	100	162	2,468	17,929	13.77%	7.03%
T-5	25	100	118	2,586	17,929	14.42%	4.78%
MTC1	8	32	+31	1,004	5,897	17.03%	3.19%
MTC2	4	18	+23	478	3,132	15.26%	5.05%
MTC3	3	26	+34	685	5,060	13.54%	5.22%
Other	10	24	+30	419	3,840	10.91%	7.71%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.303x	=	$13.69m
Barbie					0.620x	=	$13.77m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.920x	=	$13.82m
Sound of Freedom					1.239x	=	$6.44m

 

Despite the locale it would still be a feat if this were to outperform Oppenheimer here.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	25	99	129	2,123	17,347	12.24%	6.47%
T-7	25	100	183	2,306	17,929	12.86%	8.62%
T-6	25	100	162	2,468	17,929	13.77%	7.03%
T-5	25	100	118	2,586	17,929	14.42%	4.78%
T-4	25	100	283	2,869	17,929	16.00%	10.94%
MTC1	8	32	+87	1,091	5,897	18.50%	8.67%
MTC2	4	18	+60	538	3,132	17.18%	12.55%
MTC3	3	26	+74	759	5,060	15.00%	10.80%
Other	10	24	+62	481	3,840	12.53%	14.80%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.306x	=	$13.72m
Barbie					0.622x	=	$13.81m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.990x	=	$14.33m
Sound of Freedom					1.209x	=	$6.28m

 

Very good day locally. Picking up the slack from the slower sales elsewhere 🙂