The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	306	30092	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.605x) of KoTFM $1.57M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

(0.279x) of Mi7 $1.96M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	319	30092	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.280x) of Mi7 $1.96M

(0.488x) of TMNT $1.88M

Comps AVG: $1.92M

 

(0.606x) of KoTFM $1.57M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

 

Ok-ish growth, nothing noteworthy. Added TMNT mainly because of discount Tuesday  

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/9/2023 at 6:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	693	32461	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(1.361x) of Elemental $3.27M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

210 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	710	32461	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(1.350x) of Elemental $3.24M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

215 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/9/2023 at 6:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	123	6654	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.326x) of Exorcist $930k Previews

Comps AVG: $930k

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

332 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	126	6654	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(0.327x) of Exorcist $933k Previews

Comps AVG: $933k

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

338 seats sold over 20 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/9/2023 at 6:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	376	31572	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.598x) of Elemental $1.43M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.43M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	377	31572	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.550x) of Elemental $1.32M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.32M

[MovieMan89]

Seeing those THG reviews now… seriously, let’s please stop putting any stock in social reactions. Yep, back to flopsville like I suspected all along for it. 100 DOM will be a big struggle imo. Up to Wish and Wish alone for November. 

[Relevation]

Might be reading it wrong, but Wish is looking really good no? Almost every comp is comfortably above $3M (minus Hilts) and some are getting up into the high $3M range with not terribly slow pace. Seems good for like $3M flat TUE minus EA which off my averaged Encanto+Strange World 25x IM would take it to a frankly phenomenal $50M FSS and $75M 5-day total.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 210

New sales: 17

Growth: 8.8%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.481x of Marvels for ??

 

Single theatre comps

0.300x T:ROTB for $2.6M

0.857x IJ:DoD for $6.2M

Avg: $4.4M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 10.0

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 2.8

Early Evening: 17.7

Late Evening: 5.0

 

By format:

Regular: 4.3

Dolby: 11.9

VIP: 11.8

IMAX: 9.8

4DX: 8.0

 

Not a tremendous day again. I wonder if it's going to settle into this 5-10% range until early next week, which won't leave it a lot of time to catch up.

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-6, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 228

New sales: 18

Growth: 8.6%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.499x of Marvels for $3.2M

 

Single theatre comps

0.300x T:ROTB for $2.6M

0.857x IJ:DoD for $6.2M

Avg: $4.4M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 10.9

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 2.8

Early Evening: 19.4

Late Evening: 5.3

 

By format:

Regular: 4.3

Dolby: 13.4

VIP: 13.2

IMAX: 9.8

4DX: 8.0

 

Growth is really settling into the 8-9% range.

 

Using the way it's tracking against Marvels, I'm seeing $4.0-4.5M right now if I had to guess. With reviews out, there's not much else to trigger things. But, maybe promo tours by the cast can help, but only so much.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Might be reading it wrong, but Wish is looking really good no? Almost every comp is comfortably above $3M (minus Hilts) and some are getting up into the high $3M range with not terribly slow pace. Seems good for like $3M flat TUE minus EA which off my averaged Encanto+Strange World 25x IM would take it to a frankly phenomenal $50M FSS and $75M 5-day total.

I dont think the comp with Elemental is valid as it does not account for ATP different. That is substantial for discount tuesday. 

[emoviefan]

9 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Might be reading it wrong, but Wish is looking really good no? Almost every comp is comfortably above $3M (minus Hilts) and some are getting up into the high $3M range with not terribly slow pace. Seems good for like $3M flat TUE minus EA which off my averaged Encanto+Strange World 25x IM would take it to a frankly phenomenal $50M FSS and $75M 5-day total.

Assuming the reviews back up the social reactions,  not a guarantee lately cough cough BOSAS,  it should do well.  It better to save this month.  

[YM!]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think the comp with Elemental is valid as it does not account for ATP different. That is substantial for discount tuesday. 

Couldn’t we use Ninja Turtles as a comparison? There should be some comparisons right around this time as both would have more or less the same amount of PLFs and a similar ATP.

 

And even then so long as it’s outpacing Elemental to a fair degree, that should indicate 2M should be in the cards for previews even with EA. Out of curiosity couldn’t we compare Elemental’s opening Friday to Wish’s opening Wednesday (not like including previews but just the days themselves), feel like that’s still outpacing Elemental?

Edited November 11, 2023 by YM!

[TheFlatLannister]

34 minutes ago, YM! said:

Couldn’t we use Ninja Turtles as a comparison? There should be some comparisons right around this time as both would have more or less the same amount of PLFs and a similar ATP.

 

And even then so long as it’s outpacing Elemental to a fair degree, that should indicate 2M should be in the cards for previews even with EA. Out of curiosity couldn’t we compare Elemental’s opening Friday to Wish’s opening Wednesday (not like including previews but just the days themselves), feel like that’s still outpacing Elemental?

I can't but other surely could. Wish is already overindex a lot here, so I can only really compare it to another Disney title 

 

TMNT comp is at $4.21M

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, YM! said:

Couldn’t we use Ninja Turtles as a comparison? There should be some comparisons right around this time as both would have more or less the same amount of PLFs and a similar ATP.

 

And even then so long as it’s outpacing Elemental to a fair degree, that should indicate 2M should be in the cards for previews even with EA. Out of curiosity couldn’t we compare Elemental’s opening Friday to Wish’s opening Wednesday (not like including previews but just the days themselves), feel like that’s still outpacing Elemental?

 

We can, but, and I don't know if I stressed this enough earlier, the combined Sneaks/EA showings for TMNT:MM burnt off a lot of demand/had a tremendous fan rush that Wish isn't seeing yet.

 

By that I mean early sales for TMNT:MM were disproportionately tilted toward Sneaks/EA showings and thus the pre-sale curves of the two films for Tuesday showings might be... misleading.

 

Since it was a Q&D I didn't keep detailed records, but here is what I was able to piece together just now:

 

TMNT:MM	Tuesday	Sneaks/EA	EA Perct
T-12	236	279	54.17%
T-7	428	422	49.65%
T-3	696	1002	59.01%
T-2	899	1080	54.57%
T-1	1431	1311	47.81%
T-0	2920	1311	30.99%

 

Meanwhile, as of last night locally [also T-12]:

 

Wish	Tuesday	EA	EA Perct
T-12	299	86	22.34%

 

So even though Mutant Mayhem had sold far more tickets as of T-12, because a disproportionate number of them had been in the Sneaks (Sat) and EA (Mon) period they weren't waiting to see it on Tuesday.

 

Thus a current Wish Tue-ONLY comps spits out something like 4.81m locally.

 

Which... I'll take the under. 😛  Especially as I note the TUE-ONLY number out of Orlando: ---\/

 

18 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I can't but other surely could. Wish is already overindex a lot here, so I can only really compare it to another Disney title 

 

TMNT comp is at $4.21M

 

Now Wish's own EA number/percentage will go up as we get closer to next Saturday.  But Wish has a fraction of the showtimes that TMNT:MM had for the combined Sneaks/EA so there is only so much ground it can recover before it starts to fall again as the Tuesday showtimes start selling more again.

 

Still, the overall point you're making, YM, is a good one.  Everything we are seeing from all markets is that Wish is selling more tickets faster than Elemental did at this stage of pre-sales. And even with Discount Tuesday it is likely that it is ahead of Elemental at this stage of pre-sales.  I'd say very likely to be well ahead of Elemental, frankly.

 

Does that mean it'll sell as many tickets as Elemental did in its last few days?  I.e. will be as backloaded as Elemental was?  Probably not.  But it should still do better than Elemental when all is said and done, especially if it gets good to great reviews.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, YM! said:

Couldn’t we use Ninja Turtles. There should be some comparisons right around this time.

 

And even then so long as it’s outpacing Elemental, that should indicate 2M should be in the cards for previews even with EA.

Turtles is definitely better comp as it also opened on tuesday. but as @Porthos posted it did burn off more demand due to sneaks/early shows and so previews amped up late. 

 

On 11/2/2023 at 4:26 PM, keysersoze123 said:

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 1254/22152 14477.12 188 shows

Previews (11/21) - 4801/212209 73574.29 1307 shows

 

Slow progress for now. 

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 3469/22364 39544.05 190 shows

Previews (11/21)  - 8191/302596 1909 shows // I cannot get actual $ value here

Friday - 5473/477271 74277.25 2847 shows

 

I am posting Friday as well as that should  be the biggest day. For now its skewing discount tuesday. Nothing about this data is showing as big a number as that is being thrown so far. Let us wait closer to release.  

[Porthos]

Alright, I've been fooling around with some numbers here, and I think even TMNT:MM isn't gonna be good enough of a comp on a pure Tuesday basis as I don't think that sold nearly enough kids tickets to make it a viable comp.  Either that, or Elemental radically under-performed locally.

 

If I understand the PSM math right that @M37 discussed [and it's very likely I don't!!!]:

 

Just from Sacramento:

 

Elemental Final:                1910 tickets sold | 2.4m in previews | 1257k PSM locally

TMNT:MM Tue-Only:       2920 tickets sold | 3.85m in previews | 1318k PSM locally

 

That's presuming the 3.85m number we got for TMNT:MM was in fact Tuesday Only, as I believe it was reported.

 

Now, again presuming I understand the PSM mechanics right, and it looks right as I look over the percentage difference between Sonic 2 (1582k) and TMNT:MM (1318k) should be right in the range of DT pricing from what we reverse-engineered in the aftermath of MI7.

 

Hmmm...

 

There was huge controversy surrounding Lightyear's preview number.  But locally that spits out 1271k PSM which is... kinda close to Elemental.

 

*does some more back of the envelope math, this time with MI7's reported numbers*

 

What do we think about maybe something like taking 18 to 20 percent off of Elemental's numbers as an ad-hoc adjustment for the Tuesday portion?  I don't have T-12 Elemental data, but if I do that for the Tuesday portion of the T-14 sample of a couple of days ago, then I get 2.89m for Tue-ONLY (20 percent taken off) and .94m for EA (0 percent taken off)  for a combined 3.83m.

 

Locally a no-DT factored in comp would have been 4.56m as of T-14 so.... Maybe?  That's about a 16% dropoff, but with some Saturday EA sales, maybe about right?

 

Kinda doing a high-wire act here without much of a net below me, but does the above logic look sound?  Again noting that the pace isn't necessarily (or even likely to) be the same as Elemental due to so many more tickets already being sold?

 

Really, I'm looking at the logic of the DT discount more than anything else here, as I don't expect Wish to follow a similar sales trajectory that Elemental did, if only because it has sold relatively so many more tickets already.

 

EDIT:::
 

Actually, as I think about it, while the logic regarding the EA comp should still be sound when we have the final number for the EA showings, not sure comping the EA portion now makes sense as there's no EA equivalent to comp it against.  Maybe a running total?  Or just ignore comp portion of the EA shows until we get much closer to release?

 

Bah.  Told y'all I was working on a high wire act here and now I'm doubting the EA portion of it as I'm not entirely sure how much the EA might actually end up getting, even if it is at full pricing (which it will be).

 

Gonna keep stewing over that portion of my logic, as well as seeing how the EA portion of the comp shifts over the coming days.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Porthos
Fixed the TMNTMM number as I was going off of the headline — THANKS DEADLINE!!!!!

[abracadabra1998]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Alright, I've been fooling around with some numbers here, and I think even TMNT:MM isn't gonna be good enough of a comp on a pure Tuesday basis as I don't think that sold nearly enough kids tickets to make it a viable comp.  Either that, or Elemental radically under-performed locally.

 

If I understand the PSM math right that @M37 discussed [and it's very likely I don't!!!]:

 

Just from Sacramento:

 

Elemental Final:                1910 tickets sold | 2.4m in previews | 1257k PSM locally

TMNT:MM Tue-Only:       2920 tickets sold | 3.8m in previews | 1301k PSM locally

 

That's presuming the 3.8m number we got for TMNT:MM was in fact Tuesday Only, as I believe it was reported.

 

Now, again presuming I understand the PSM mechanics right, and it looks right as I look over the percentage difference between Sonic 2 (1582k) and TMNT:MM (1301k) should be right in the range of DT pricing from what we reverse-engineered in the aftermath of MI7.

 

Hmmm...

 

There was huge controversy surrounding Lightyear's preview number.  But locally that spits out 1271k PSM which is... kinda close to Elemental.

 

*does some more back of the envelope math, this time with MI7's reported numbers*

 

What do we think about maybe something like taking 18 to 20 percent off of Elemental's numbers as an ad-hoc adjustment for the Tuesday portion?  I don't have T-12 Elemental data, but if I do that for the Tuesday portion of the T-14 sample of a couple of days ago, then I get 2.89m for Tue-ONLY (20 percent taken off) and .94m for EA (0 percent taken off)  for a combined 3.83m.

 

Locally a no-DT factored in comp would have been 4.56m as of T-14 so.... Maybe?  That's about a 16% dropoff, but with some Saturday EA sales, maybe about right?

 

Kinda doing a high-wire act here without much of a net below me, but does the above logic look sound?  Again noting that the pace isn't necessarily (or even likely to) be the same as Elemental due to so many more tickets already being sold?

 

Really, I'm looking at the logic of the DT discount more than anything else here, as I don't expect Wish to follow a similar sales trajectory that Elemental did, if only because it has sold relatively so many more tickets already.

A tiny correction, that I don’t think will alter any math significantly, but I believe the reported TMNT Tuesday number was 3.85, just wanted to give you that heads up!

 

Anyways, I can’t speak at all to Elemental, because I wasn’t tracking at the time, but that sounds like it makes sense. Thinking pace-wise, if Trolls is anything to go by, Saturday EA will begin to syphon off a bunch of sales until it happens (already has in my latest update, same number of new tickets sold, except EA represents a way bigger %). Any thoughts on any kind of comps (other than TMNT obviously) where that has happened in the near past, where pace slows down and then picks up significantly at T-3? Honestly, the reason TMNT seems like the best comp here is less Tuesday discount and more the fact that sales over next week will be dominated by EA. You can adjust for ATP, not for pace.

 

(or I might be totally wrong, I’m definitely inexperienced here!)

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

A tiny correction, that I don’t think will alter any math significantly, but I believe the reported TMNT Tuesday number was 3.85, just wanted to give you that heads up!

 

That's what I get for going off of headlines and not reading the article!  

 

(thanks bunches, Deadline)

 

Think I'll go ahead and make the edit regardless.

[M37]

40 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Alright, I've been fooling around with some numbers here, and I think even TMNT:MM isn't gonna be good enough of a comp on a pure Tuesday basis as I don't think that sold nearly enough kids tickets to make it a viable comp.  Either that, or Elemental radically under-performed locally.

 

If I understand the PSM math right that @M37 discussed [and it's very likely I don't!!!]:

 

Just from Sacramento:

 

Elemental Final:                1910 tickets sold | 2.4m in previews | 1257k PSM locally

TMNT:MM Tue-Only:       2920 tickets sold | 3.85m in previews | 1318k PSM locally

 

That's presuming the 3.85m number we got for TMNT:MM was in fact Tuesday Only, as I believe it was reported.

 

Now, again presuming I understand the PSM mechanics right, and it looks right as I look over the percentage difference between Sonic 2 (1582k) and TMNT:MM (1318k) should be right in the range of DT pricing from what we reverse-engineered in the aftermath of MI7.

 

Hmmm...

 

There was huge controversy surrounding Lightyear's preview number.  But locally that spits out 1271k PSM which is... kinda close to Elemental.

 

*does some more back of the envelope math, this time with MI7's reported numbers*

 

What do we think about maybe something like taking 18 to 20 percent off of Elemental's numbers as an ad-hoc adjustment for the Tuesday portion?  I don't have T-12 Elemental data, but if I do that for the Tuesday portion of the T-14 sample of a couple of days ago, then I get 2.89m for Tue-ONLY (20 percent taken off) and .94m for EA (0 percent taken off)  for a combined 3.83m.

 

Locally a no-DT factored in comp would have been 4.56m as of T-14 so.... Maybe?  That's about a 16% dropoff, but with some Saturday EA sales, maybe about right?

 

Kinda doing a high-wire act here without much of a net below me, but does the above logic look sound?  Again noting that the pace isn't necessarily (or even likely to) be the same as Elemental due to so many more tickets already being sold?

 

Really, I'm looking at the logic of the DT discount more than anything else here, as I don't expect Wish to follow a similar sales trajectory that Elemental did, if only because it has sold relatively so many more tickets already.

 

EDIT:::
 

Actually, as I think about it, while the logic regarding the EA comp should still be sound when we have the final number for the EA showings, not sure comping the EA portion now makes sense as there's no EA equivalent to comp it against.  Maybe a running total?  Or just ignore comp portion of the EA shows until we get much closer to release?

 

Bah.  Told y'all I was working on a high wire act here and now I'm doubting the EA portion of it as I'm not entirely sure how much the EA might actually end up getting, even if it is at full pricing (which it will be).

 

Gonna keep stewing over that portion of my logic, as well as seeing how the EA portion of the comp shifts over the coming days.

First, I’ll say your PSM math looks correct, and Sacto usually overindexes (lower PSM) for family films, especially Disney ones. As for the rest of it …

 

… honestly you lost me somewhere in there 🤷‍♂️ (maybe a few times).  So let me just repeat something I’ve said before which may - or may not - help make the math a bit easier: it is my belief that Saturday shows, even one 4 days before a true Tue preview, are a wholly different beast (and audience) and should be excluded entirely from sales and comps

 

It just seemed to me (and again I got lost in there) to be an awful lot of work to approximate what $ value will Disney report for all previews, rather than what we really want to know, which is: how is Wish’s Tue preview selling & pacing compared to like films, and what that means for the 3/5 day opening projections

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

First, I’ll say your PSM math looks correct, and Sacto usually overindexes (lower PSM) for family films, especially Disney ones. As for the rest of it …

 

… honestly you lost me somewhere in there 🤷‍♂️ (maybe a few times).  So let me just repeat something I’ve said before which may - or may not - help make the math a bit easier: it is my belief that Saturday shows, even one 4 days before a true Tue preview, are a wholly different beast (and audience) and should be excluded entirely from sales and comps

 

It just seemed to me (and again I got lost in there) to be an awful lot of work to approximate what $ value will Disney report for all previews, rather than what we really want to know, which is: how is Wish’s Tue preview selling & pacing compared to like films, and what that means for the 3/5 day opening projections

 

Fair enough, on the "lost me somewhere in there" stuff. I might have lost myself, frankly 😛 

 

As for your contention about excluding Sat shows from sales and comps, I'm well aware.  But if Disney is gonna include it in its reported preview number, I personally am gonna want to figure out that portion of it ahead of time, even if it isn't useful at all for Wish's Tues numbers. 

 

We all have our hobby horses, and that's one of mine. 😉 

[keysersoze123]

On 11/9/2023 at 8:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews Final - 132941/788754 2450558.49 4295 shows +40041 

Friday - 103929/1276061 1835583.75 6971 shows +22725

 

Really meh walkups after meh presales yesterday. I guess meh reviews just made it a damp squib. This has been the strongest TC looking at how bad other big TC's have been. I am thinking ~6.6m previews based on how overall things are looking. 

The Marvels MTC1

Friday Final - 228235/1276979 3845046.67 6994 shows

Sat - 98214/1330903 1633138.36 7286 shows

 

Walkups today was better than what we saw yesterday. Obviously Veterans day played a big role in that. Seems very close to Flash Friday. I am thinking similar number here. Thinking 20.5-21m Friday including Previews. 

 

Saturday PS is down 10% in $ value from yesterday. I think its bcos of even more morning/afternoon tickets sold compared to today. I am thinking flattish saturday from true friday and 33% drop or so on Sunday. 

[Grand Cine]

I read the conversation about Wish so now i will make my analysis which that may not be the best but i will try .

 

Before to begin , the figures may be small but it is just to give a trend compared to others

 

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 3469/22364 39544.05 190 shows

Previews (11/21)  - 8191/302596 1909 shows // I cannot get actual $ value here

Friday - 5473/477271 74277.25 2847 shows

 

These are the figures @keysersoze123 gave last evening/night

 

For the early show , we could compare with Trolls 3 :

 

Early Shows(11/4) - 5249/47862 52417.79 272 shows

 

It's at T-5 so i think for Wish it will be around 46K so around 87%-88% of Trolls 3 , but i think the comp with Trolls 3 will fall because for the early show the trend was good so maybe at this point 700-750K for Wish

 

For Previews :

 

Elemental : - 5055/298801 80434.73 2125 shows +1679

At T-6 - 7830/301099 124747.08 2145 shows +2775

TMNT at T-3 :  - 22218/528323 363997.92 3345 shows

 

I think the actual dollars for Previews is around 125K if i estimate so yes Wish has a much better pace than Elemental and like @Porthos has in Sacremento , Wish has around 1 week in advance than Elemental , the comp is around 3,7M-3,8M even with the discount tuesday so it's really good . For TMNT , i think if Wish work with the same advance wth Elemental , i think Wish will be around 330-335K so around 3,5-3,6M . The only issue like @Porthos said , the presales accelerated later due to early access so I think it will go down so for now , i'm agree with 3-3,5M for true tuesday and more than 4M with early access.

 

I think at this point than Wish could make 60M long OW ( 5 days) because the with the end of strike Ariana DeBose and Julia Micheals begin to promote the movie and if the critics are good ( if the social reaction are correct) and for the general public it could have good legs