The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[YM!]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Since this is buzz and tracking...

 

The reason I'm high on Garfield and Inside Out 2 next year (and have declared 2024 the animated year) is that my youngest boy (tween) and my youngest girl (older teen) both came to me and asked if I'd seen all the new movie trailer releases in the last 2 weeks.  I asked which ones they meant, and both responded (in a highly favorable way) to Garfield and Inside Out 2, and wanted me to watch both.

 

So, since my kids are on the pulse of the internet, I think the buzz in that 25 and under crowd is hitting hard for those 2 products.  And since I already expect both to benefit in the 25+ crowd from nostalgia, both could do very, very well.

 

YMMV, but this is the news from my kid movie whisperers...

 

PS - No movie got huge sets at my Cinemarks for this weekend, so nothing should be much higher than The Marvels OW total last weekend.  See, I can bring this back to current presales, too:)...

Interestingly enough, my theater went ham on Trolls with it having Marvel level screens (3+).

[Krissykins]

Thanksgiving being the most fresh film of the week with 85% and the other 3 films likely to end up rotten lol

[TheFlatLannister]

12 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Will Napoleon and Wish become a meme like Barbenheimer or did that never start?

Napoleon presales are nowhere near Oppenheimer (which was evident by day-1 that it was breaking out). It’s actually been pretty meh so far 

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Thanksgiving being the most fresh film of the week with 85% and the other 3 films likely to end up rotten lol

It's going to be an expensive week for me.

 

3 movies for me to see that week, THG, Wish, and Thanksgiving.

[Grand Cine]

https://deadline.com/2023/11/hunger-games-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-box-office-opening-1235612652/

 

50M for Hunger Games , 100M Worldwide

High 20's-Low 30's for Trolls 3

12M-15M for Thanksgiving

[Bob Train]

Thanksgiving previews are starting at 7PM so it should be able to pull >10x IM

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Since this is buzz and tracking...

 

The reason I'm high on Garfield and Inside Out 2 next year (and have declared 2024 the animated year) is that my youngest boy (tween) and my youngest girl (older teen) both came to me and asked if I'd seen all the new movie trailer releases in the last 2 weeks.  I asked which ones they meant, and both responded (in a highly favorable way) to Garfield and Inside Out 2, and wanted me to watch both.

 

So, since my kids are on the pulse of the internet, I think the buzz in that 25 and under crowd is hitting hard for those 2 products.  And since I already expect both to benefit in the 25+ crowd from nostalgia, both could do very, very well.

 

YMMV, but this is the news from my kid movie whisperers...

 

PS - No movie got huge sets at my Cinemarks for this weekend, so nothing should be much higher than The Marvels OW total last weekend (and I expect all the openers to actually probably end up lower, although Hunger Games has the best chance at barely getting over).  See, I can bring this back to current presales, too:)...

Inside out 2 is a billion dollar film. Garfield I’m a bit skeptical about. Thinking it will perform more like PiB the last wish WW 

Edited November 15, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, M37 said:

How does MTC2 look? I know that’s usually more family friendly in general, but this film in particular might skew more than usual 

I dont have the data. its a pain getting MTC2 data as it takes 6-8 hrs to pull it for a movie. These movies we should be able to project with regional plus MTC1 anyway. I am expect ratios similar to Elemental in that it has very few PLF shows available. So ATP will be lower. I am thinking 1.5m previews for thursday and 25-30m OW.  

[Tinalera]

20 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

On a per theatre and per showtime basis, it's doing better than my sample by about 30-40%, which would put it in line with what we're seeing in other markets.

 

Maybe the issue is regional. My sample is also from last night, so I'll see tonight if there's been much of a surge.

Ill see if I can drop a quick Toronto one later.

[vafrow]

Wonka tickets are out. 

 

They're up on Cineplex. I'll likely be tracking this one, especially as Hunger Games drops off.

 

At a full month out, I'm not going to have great comps.

 

No sales yet, but it just went up. It's also not showing up for one of the largest theatres in the area. I'm sure it will, but odd for that one to lag.

 

So far, it's not getting a lot of showtimes. It's on big screens (IMAX and Dolby), but only one theatre so far has it on more than one screen.

[M37]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont have the data. it’s a pain getting MTC2 data as it takes 6-8 hrs to pull it for a movie. These movies we should be able to project with regional plus MTC1 anyway. I am expect ratios similar to Elemental in that it has very few PLF shows available. So ATP will be lower. I am thinking 1.5m previews for thursday and 25-30m OW.  

No worries on MTC2. Don’t really disagree with your conclusion, but I do think comping Disney to non-Disney may not necessarily be a 1:1 in terms of chain/market performance. We just don’t have much else in the way of Thursday animated previews to use

[Grand Cine]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

No worries on MTC2. Don’t really disagree with your conclusion, but I do think comping Disney to non-Disney may not necessarily be a 1:1 in terms of chain/market performance. We just don’t have much else in the way of Thursday animated previews to use

Yes normally i'm agree i think comp with other animated movies from this studio is the better thing . Just for Trolls , the problem is the other universal animated movies are so high ( Minions 2 or Mario) or they gave Tuesday previews so we don't have many options

[YM!]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont have the data. its a pain getting MTC2 data as it takes 6-8 hrs to pull it for a movie. These movies we should be able to project with regional plus MTC1 anyway. I am expect ratios similar to Elemental in that it has very few PLF shows available. So ATP will be lower. I am thinking 1.5m previews for thursday and 25-30m OW.  

Is the 1.5M including or excluding EA?

 

Also do think if it has another good day like yesterday and keeps in tangent with Elemental, should be able to do a 10M OD.

Edited November 15, 2023 by YM!

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, YM! said:

Is the 1.5M including or excluding EA?

 

Also do think if it has another good day like yesterday and keeps in tangent with Elemental, should be able to do a 10M OD.

Excluding. Last 2-3 movies they added EA to opening day and not to previews. if they add that as well add another 800K-1m.

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Inside out 2 is a billion dollar film. Garfield I’m a bit skeptical about. Thinking it will perform more like PiB the last wish WW 

I'm agree with IO2 if Disney make a good marketing , for Garfield i see more 300-400 WW but with a low budget ( maybe less than Universal Movies) it's really good ( see Paw Patrol 188WW with a 30M budget)

[Grand Cine]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Excluding. Last 2-3 movies they added EA to opening day and not to previews. if they add that as well add another 800K-1m.

So a 2,5M previews in total , it's not too bad for the movie

 

30 minutes ago, YM! said:

Is the 1.5M including or excluding EA?

 

Also do think if it has another good day like yesterday and keeps in tangent with Elemental, should be able to do a 10M OD.

You predict 10 OD true friday or Friday + previews because if it's the second option i think it's really possible , i'm agree. For sure , the movie will have a very good ratio previews Fri/Sat

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

So a 2,5M previews in total , it's not too bad for the movie

 

You predict 10 OD true friday or Friday + previews because if it's the second option i think it's really possible , i'm agree. For sure , the movie will have a very good ratio previews Fri/Sat

Friday and previews

[Bob Train]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-hunger-games-the-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-next-goal-wins-trolls-band-together-and-thanksgiving/

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 19	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	Lionsgate	$47,100,000	$47,100,000	3,700	NEW
Trolls Band Together	Universal Pictures	$28,200,000	$28,200,000	3,800	NEW
The Marvels	Disney & Marvel Studios	$16,000,000	$71,300,000	~4,030	-65%
Thanksgiving	Sony Pictures & TriStar	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	3,200	NEW
Next Goal Wins	Disney & Searchlight Pictures	$4,200,000	$4,200,000	~2,300	NEW
Five Nights at Freddy’s	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$4,000,000	$133,400,000	~3,000	-55%
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour	AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films	$3,100,000	$176,100,000	~1,900	-49%
Priscilla	A24	$2,800,000	$18,000,000	~2,000	-42%
The Holdovers	Focus Features	$2,700,000	$8,400,000	~1,600	-16%
Killers of the Flower Moon	Paramount Pictures & Apple	$2,600,000	$64,500,000	~2,000	-43%

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Inside out 2 is a billion dollar film. Garfield I’m a bit skeptical about. Thinking it will perform more like PiB the last wish WW 

Garfield could get super big IMO. If it hits a SLOP style zeitgeist and audience reception clicks, watch out for something like $75M OW / $280M DOM / $700M WW

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

So a 2,5M previews in total , it's not too bad for the movie

 

You predict 10 OD true friday or Friday + previews because if it's the second option i think it's really possible , i'm agree. For sure , the movie will have a very good ratio previews Fri/Sat

10m True friday from where it is now is highly unlikely. Elemental did around 9.3m true friday this has weaker presales compared to that. Plus School is also on at this time. I think 10m with everything including early shows is possible.