The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Hilts]

On 11/14/2023 at 11:05 PM, Hilts said:

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$13.78**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-11	18	54	9	127	8,872	1.43%	7.63%
T-10	19	56	14	141	9,976	1.41%	11.02%
T-9	19	56	25	166	9,976	1.66%	17.73%
T-8	19	56	41	207	9,976	2.07%	24.70%
T-7	19	56	23	230	9,976	2.31%	11.11%
MTC1	8	21	+5	88	3,677	2.39%	6.02%
MTC2	3	9	0	16	1,187	1.35%	0.00%
MTC3	3	14	+15	86	3,744	2.30%	21.13%
Other	5	12	+3	40	1,368	2.92%	8.11%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.510x	=	$3.57m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.144x	=	$4.41m
Oppenheimer					0.144x	=	$1.52m
The Creator					2.000x	=	$2.70m

 

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 17.39%

PLF: 36.09%

 

More increases.

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$13.90*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-10	19	56	14	141	9,976	1.41%	11.02%
T-9	19	56	25	166	9,976	1.66%	17.73%
T-8	19	56	41	207	9,976	2.07%	24.70%
T-7	19	56	23	230	9,976	2.31%	11.11%
T-6	19	59	29	259	10,828	2.39%	12.61%
MTC1	8	24	+2	90	4,529	1.99%	2.27%
MTC2	3	9	+8	24	1,187	2.02%	50.00%
MTC3	3	14	+14	100	3,744	2.67%	16.28%
Other	5	12	+5	45	1,368	3.29%	12.50%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.518x	=	$3.63m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.151x	=	$4.43m
Oppenheimer					0.151x	=	$1.58m
The Creator					2.123x	=	$2.87m

 

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 16.22%

PLF: 35.52%

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$12.23
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	24	106	10	145	14,269	1.02%	7.41%
T-4	24	106	12	157	14,269	1.10%	8.28%
T-3	24	106	40	197	14,269	1.38%	25.48%
T-2	24	124	36	233	15,659	1.49%	18.27%
T-1	24	147	76	309	18,502	1.67%	32.62%
MTC1	7	45	+20	78	4,882	1.60%	34.48%
MTC2	4	29	+17	65	4,904	1.33%	35.42%
MTC3	3	19	+13	69	3,329	2.07%	23.21%
Other	10	54	+28	97	5,387	1.80%	36.62%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.575x	=	$1.78m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.532x	=	$2.05m

 

Matinee: 12.94%

3D: 10.68%

@M37 regional data like this makes me think Trolls will index at MTC1 relative to Disney animation. Just look at MTC split for this vs Wish !!!

[Hilts]

I will look at Wonka fully tomorrow as tickets have only been on sale a few hours.

 

But initial sets appear on a similar level to Hunger Games, however MTC2 is very light on showtimes and does not seem to have any PLF (IMAX, XD or D-Box) showings, in contrast to the other MTCs which are rolling out IMAX, Dolby, 4DX etc. It's still early but quite curious.

[Grand Cine]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@M37 regional data like this makes me think Trolls will index at MTC1 relative to Disney animation. Just look at MTC split for this vs Wish !!!

You said that you can really compare Wish to Trolls 3 and it's better to have a split at MTC or not ?

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	93	204	1448	15422	9.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		900	113	62.15
MTC1:		823	104	56.84
Marcus:		238	36	16.44
Alamo:		108	6	7.46
Other chains:		279	58	19.27

 

Comps:

0.8x The Marvels: $5.3 Million

0.63x FNAF: $6.53 Million

0.23x Barbie (just Thursday): $4.96 Million

 

Average: $5.6 Million

 

Despite me posting these later than usual, I ironically did my counts today a tad earlier than usual, so it might self-correct a bit tomorrow. It held against FNAF and Marvels and dropped against Barbie, but I'm hoping it'll rise against the former two tomorrow

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	102	318	1766	16808	10.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1053	153	59.63
MTC1:		920	97	52.1
Marcus:		291	53	16.48
Alamo:		121	13	6.85
Other chains:		434	155	24.58

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	21.96
3-Day:	67.71

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.81x The Marvels: $5.37 Million (20%; 56%)

0.66x FNAF: $6.8 Million (17%; 62%)

0.23x Barbie (just Thursday): $4.81 Million (25%, 94%)

 

Average: $5.66 Million

 

Decent final day and week, as expected better than FNAF and Marvels but worse than Barbie. PLF numbers ended up pretty similarly to the Marvels as well. No final numbers from me tomorrow sadly. I see no reason to go away from the average, let's go with a final prediction of $5.7 Million, +/- 0.2

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	97	43	198	11638	1.7

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		19	6	9.6
MTC1:		49	9	24.75
Marcus:		48	12	24.24
Alamo:		10	2	5.05
Other chains:		91	20	45.96

 

Comps:

0.7x Haunted Mansion (THU*): $2.11 Million

Paw Patrol 2 (FRI): Missed

3.89x Ruby Gillman: $2.82 Million

*Ballparking the EA at $100k, it was limited and never reported, so the preview number used here is $3 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	114	60	258	13679	1.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		25	6	9.69
MTC1:		78	29	30.23
Marcus:		55	7	21.32
Alamo:		16	6	6.2
Other chains:		109	18	42.25

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	30.3
3-Day:	101.56

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.62x Haunted Mansion (THU*): $1.87 Million (47%, 115%)

3.33x Ruby Gillman: $2.41 Million (40%, 113%)

*Ballparking the EA at $100k, it was limited and never reported, so the preview number used here is $3 Million

 

To @keysersoze123's point about MTC1 underindexing, seeing the exact same here (for ex. Wish in my last update is about 50% MTC1). This is having a meh final week, my comps are bad but I would go with $1.5-1.75 Million sans EA based on them. And I was on the over 2 million train before the final week.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
130	246	22191	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.244x) of Exorcist $695K Previews

(0.583x) of Haunting at Venice $699K Previews

Comps AVG: $697k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
133	295	22625	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.260x) of Exorcist $741K Previews

(0.618x) of Haunting at Venice $742K Previews

Comps AVG: $742k

 

Very good increase against comps

[YM!]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@M37 regional data like this makes me think Trolls will index at MTC1 relative to Disney animation. Just look at MTC split for this vs Wish !!!

I’m confused. Do you mean Trolls will overindex in other chains more than MTC1 compared to Wish?

[HummingLemon496]

Wonka is gonna be THE December blockbuster 

Edited November 15, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Thanksgiving (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	31	40	143	2705	5.29

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		72	18	50.35
Marcus:		13	12	9.09
Alamo:		31	2	21.68
Other chains:		27	8	18.88

 

Comps:

0.52x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.49 Million

0.58x Saw X: $1.17 Million

0.67x Nun II: $2.08 Million

1.38x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.04 Million

0.79x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $990k

0.48x Insidious Red Door: $2.41 Million

 

Average: $1.53 Million

 

Dropped against all but one comp (Talk to Me), feels like it'll converge in the 1-1.25 Million range.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Thanksgiving (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	34	35	178	3201	5.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		89	17	50
Marcus:		16	3	8.99
Alamo:		30	-1	16.85
Other chains:		43	16	24.16

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	24.48
3-Day:	89.36

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.53x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.5 Million (23%, 73%)

Saw X: Missed

0.68x Nun II: $2.1 Million (23%, 128%)

1.29x Last Voyage of Demeter: $967k (34%, 130%)

1.02x Talk To Me (THU*): $1.23 Million (38%, 145%)

0.44x Insidious Red Door: $2.19 Million (37%, 152%)

*EA was never reported, but it was very limited. Ballparking the Thursday preview number at 1.2 Million.

 

Average: $1.6 Million

 

Average notwithstanding, this had a horrible final week for original horror. Maybe it will have outstanding walk-ups, but I doubt it. Show capacity is also super limited. This seems to be overperforming here so I'll call it at $1 Million, +/- 0.2.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

I’m confused. Do you mean Trolls will overindex in other chains more than MTC1 compared to Wish?

under index at MTC1. I am not sure what it means to over index at other chains. 

[misterpepp]

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on sale Nov 20

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on sale Nov 20

Holy shit

 

THIS IS NOT A DRILL

 

IT'S HAPPENING GUYS IT'S HAPPENING

 

In 5 days, the prophets will be tested and the truth will be revealed 

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, misterpepp said:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on sale Nov 20

Weird to start presales during thanksgiving week. Week following that would have been better. Still its just presales. Let us see if WB is just dumping this as well or do they try to create some buzz. I am highly skeptical but we will get data soon and only that matters. 

[Grand Cine]

3 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on sale Nov 20

 

Why? It's really early with the competition of Thanksgiving week and Thanksgiving simply . already that there is not really interest

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	839	33295	2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

32

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.333x) of Elemental $3.20M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

317 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
184	899	34057	2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.312x) of Elemental $3.15M Previews 

Adjusted down 30% for ATP

$2.21M Previews 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

339 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/14/2023 at 6:23 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	405	30092	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

43

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.264x) of Mi7 $1.85M

(0.538x) of TMNT $2.07M

Comps AVG: $1.96M

 

(0.698x) of KoTFM $1.82M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

 

Another pretty good day

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	452	30797	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.282x) of Mi7 $1.98M

(0.534x) of TMNT $2.05M

Comps AVG: $2.02M

 

(0.741x) of KoTFM $1.93M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

 

Its stringing together some pretty good days. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/14/2023 at 6:31 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
221	510	40348	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

54

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.495x) of Elemental $1.19M Previews

(2.914x) of Ruby Gilman $2.11M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.65M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
227	538	41547	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.429x) of Elemental $1.03M Previews

(2.502x) of Ruby Gilman $1.81M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.42M

 

Pretty terrible growth

[YM!]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

under index at MTC1. I am not sure what it means to over index at other chains. 

My mistake lol. I meant that in exchange for doing mixed on MTC1, it overperforms in other chains.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/14/2023 at 7:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
43	204	8284	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.473x) of Exorcist $1.35M Previews

(0.091x) of FNAF $937k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.14M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

421 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
73	217	15022	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.482x) of Exorcist $1.37M Previews

(0.093x) of FNAF $960k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.17M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

442 seats sold over 20 showings