The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[MovieMan89]

44 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

If Dune 1 could open to $41m+ while released day and date on HBO during a pandemic then surely Dune 2 is highly likely to open $50m+

I don’t think the GA liked Dune and aren’t invested in it, but we’ll see. 

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t think the GA liked Dune and aren’t invested in it, but we’ll see. 

And what evidence do you have to back that up?

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

And what evidence do you have to back that up?

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

And what evidence do you have to back that up?

Anecdotes of everyone I know who’s not into hard sci-fi… females especially did not go for Dune from my experience. I’ve said many times, Dune benefited massively from being the first spectacle movie post covid. 
 

We can also point to poor box office legs, but it didn’t have a conventional release either. 2.5 year break is also horrific for a movie that was a part 1 with a true cliffhanger. People move on. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t think the GA liked Dune and aren’t invested in it, but we’ll see. 

 

I wouldn't put it as strongly as that.  But I do think this is the biggest potential roadblock to Dune 2.  It was liked well enough (2.6x w/day and date isn't something to sneeze at, IMO). But a common complaint from even folks who were pre-disposed to liking it was TOO DRY.

 

(pun intended?  Shan't tell)

 

Now countering this, this installment is supposed to be much more action packed, and thus perhaps more GA-friendly and less Film Twitter Darling. 

 

Personal anecdotal data isn't, but I do recall my father's reaction to Dune.  Big SciFi fan and even likes cerebral SF more often than not (really dug Arrival, for instance).   Just could not get into Dune the one time he tried to watch it.  Data size of one means nothing, of course.  Still, Dune being v dry and cerebral was one of the few complaints that surrounded Part One and I do think it is something that needs to be kept in mind.

 

That being said, I also think, GENERALLY SPEAKING, it earned enough good will to get folks curious enough to check out part two, especially w/no day and date.  I would tend to think something of a rush at the start of pre-sales (fans + cinephiles) with then more folks waiting on the sidelines a bit for reviews to come in.

 

Do think O/U 50m OW sounds reasonable though, if only because of ATP hikes, PLF skew, and no Day and Date.

 

[Giorno]

any boy and the heron tracking?

[MovieMan89]

I did get the dreaded “I feel asleep” reply from more than one person I know who saw Dune, which is a rare response in my experience. Conversely, friends I have who love epic sci fi raved and raved, but that’s too niche for a blockbuster. 

[YM!]

Feel KFP4 seems like the obvious 50m+ opener. Long gap for a kids movie, and has nostalgia. Could even do around 80m OW if the marketing is effective but is it staying in March?

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

Feel KFP4 seems like the obvious 50m+ opener. Long gap for a kids movie, and has nostalgia. Could even do around 80m OW if the marketing is effective but is it staying in March?

80?!? For Kung Fu Panda in 2024? No idea how… that franchise never really ignited from the breakout potential of the first way back and it’s certainly no Shrek today. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Do think O/U 50m OW sounds reasonable though, if only because of ATP hikes, PLF skew, and no Day and Date.

 

 I want to stress this BTW.  Dune had a WILD PLF skew.

 

WIIIIIILD

 

As I check, over 50% of the preview night sales locally were some sort of PLF (54.2%).

 

To put this in perspective, Oppenheimer was at 62%, and that's with the 15/70mm print goosing sales locally.  I don't believe I've had any other film I've tracked come even remotely close to that PLF percentage.  Most similar film would be Ava 2 with its 57% 3D sales, and even there it "only" had 40.9% PLF sales (though obvs nearly all of them were 3D PLF which is an even more expensive ticket).

 

So even if the ticket sales are somewhat lower than some of the more recent blockbusters, folks plunking down for PLF tickets is very likely gonna drag the ATP up more than a bit.

 

Just something to keep in mind for next year.

 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

80?!? For Kung Fu Panda in 2024? No idea how… that franchise never really ignited from the breakout potential of the first way back and it’s certainly no Shrek today. 

Comcast usurped Disney as the leader of animation and are good at pulling decent marketing campaigns. It’s no Shrek but it’s definitely within the top 3 of Dreamworks most beloved franchises. 

[emoviefan]

I still think people are going to sleep on The Fall Guy potential for a big OW. That first trailer seemed to play well and seemed made for that General audience we all talk about.  Universal would not have moved it to that summer kickoff date if they did not believe they had the goods. They could be wrong and be misjudging it. Would not be the first time a studio missed on that. They will go heavy on the marketing from the Super Bowl on I assume.

[MovieMan89]

I still remember what utter disappointments KFP2 and Dragon 2 from DWA were back in the day. Most of us expected massive juggernauts with both, only to not even eclipse the first ones. 

[Flip]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-29 *First few Hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
187	497	34702	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(0.511x) of Oppenheimer $5.37M Previews

(0.324x) of Indy 5 $2.34M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.86M

 

❌

No signs of an early breakout

this is fine, it won't be frontloaded and we already know the true test will be WOM, which can't be gleaned until after release

[keysersoze123]

On 11/14/2023 at 6:34 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 7590/363857 108049.80 2524 shows +1375

Friday - 18989/583642 271189.39 3923 shows +5044

 

Previews are not looking that good. Its all about weekend walkups. No change in my predictions. 

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 9611/375499 136577.15 2620 shows +2021

Friday - 24520/607494 349759.46 4099 shows +4531

 

Terrible day for sure. Its less than half of Elemental at this point. Even if we account for MTC1 under index its not going to do more than 1.3m or so. 

[Flip]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

I write a question earlier today who could be the next movie to open with more than 50M

Aquaman, there's enough goodwill from the 1st movie that OW will be big enough even if the movie is trash

[Relevation]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

80?!? For Kung Fu Panda in 2024? No idea how… that franchise never really ignited from the breakout potential of the first way back and it’s certainly no Shrek today. 

I mean yeah it’s not gonna make $1B DOM like Shrek 5 but I think the 8 year wait is good to build up nostalgia for the KFP brand. All 3 installments were well received and are looked back fondly upon, the first 3 films all opened to $50M+ adjusted (the first peaked at $86M for an original animated film!) and it has a good release date as the first all access blockbuster of 2024. Maybe $80M is a little much, but $65-70M is in the cards imo.

[filmlover]

I'm not surprised Trolls is looking to be a relative nonstarter. After the last one went straight to PVOD (albeit due to reasons beyond their control), there was no coming back for it as a big screen franchise (though this was probably made to make up for that lost theatrical run). Most of its potential audience will likely just wait until it's available to watch at home.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 9611/375499 136577.15 2620 shows +2021

Friday - 24520/607494 349759.46 4099 shows +4531

 

Terrible day for sure. Its less than half of Elemental at this point. Even if we account for MTC1 under index its not going to do more than 1.3m or so. 

At least the Friday is pretty solid.

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 I want to stress this BTW.  Dune had a WILD PLF skew.

 

WIIIIIILD

 

As I check, over 50% of the preview night sales locally were some sort of PLF (54.2%).

 

To put this in perspective, Oppenheimer was at 62%, and that's with the 15/70mm print goosing sales locally.  I don't believe I've had any other film I've tracked come even remotely close to that PLF percentage.  Most similar film would be Ava 2 with its 57% 3D sales, and even there it "only" had 40.9% PLF sales (though obvs nearly all of them were 3D PLF which is an even more expensive ticket).

 

So even if the ticket sales are somewhat lower than some of the more recent blockbusters, folks plunking down for PLF tickets is very likely gonna drag the ATP up more than a bit.

 

Just something to keep in mind for next year.

 

But it’s worth noting then that even with that being the case, the movie barely scratched 40m. Sure there’s inflation and streaming day and date too, but I maintain it’s far from out of question for sub 50