The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

Flash and any DCEU movies would be good comps. We have not had a holiday comic book release except the mega blockbuster No Way Home. 

[Bob Train]

What is the expected IM for Aquaman? It will drop hard on Sunday due to Christmas eve. The Flash had flat Sunday due to Juneteenth/Father's day.

 

However, Aquaman may play to a more casual audience.

[keysersoze123]

I think for for Aquabro 2 the 1st question is level of interest in the project. we willl know in 3 days once presales start. I think WB has not done that much for promotion. only 1 trailer so far. Of course Mamoa is hitting talk show circuits. But is that sufficient to build the hype. Only time will tell. Color me a skeptic for now. After all Mamoa himself said this is a dead end for the character.  

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/14/2023 at 9:19 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 18 theaters	79	52	193	9787	1.97
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	87	169	1100	15.36
TOTALS:	88	139	362	10887	3.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		180	62	49.72
Marcus:		73	22	20.17
Alamo:		3	3	0.83
Other chains:		106	52	29.28

 

Tuesday Comps:

1.27x Haunted Mansion (THU): $3.81 Million

0.39x Paw Patrol (FRI): $2.67 Million

0.89x TMNT (TUE): $3.44 Million

2.1x Trolls: Band Together: ???

 

Average (not including Trolls): $3.31 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.98x TMNT Saturday EA: ~800k*

0.28x Trolls: Band Together Saturday EA: ???

*Operating under the assumption that TMNT's Saturday EA is ~825k, half of the reported EA gross for both days

 

Napoleon (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	47	123	272	7380	3.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		176	69	64.71
MTC1:		136	55	50
Marcus:		65	29	23.9
Alamo:		37	18	13.6
Other chains:		34	21	12.5

 

Comps:

0.51x KOFM: $1.32 Million

1.54x The Creator (just THU): $2.07 Million

0.13x Oppy: $1.35 Million

0.3x MI7 (just TUE): $2.12 Million

 

Average: $1.715 Million

 

Great growth!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 20 theaters	102	67	260	12149	2.14
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	112	281	1100	25.55
TOTALS:	111	179	541	13249	4.08

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		5	5	0.92
MTC1:		249	69	46.03
Marcus:		110	37	20.33
Alamo:		7	4	1.29
Other chains:		175	69	32.35

 

Tuesday Comps:

1.35x Haunted Mansion (THU): $4.18 Million

0.3x Paw Patrol (FRI): $2.03 Million

2.3x Trolls: Band Together: $2.64 Million

 

Average: $2.95 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.29x Trolls: Band Together Saturday EA: $290k (assuming 1 million that has been thrown around in this thread, reallyyyyyyy hope we can get a Trolls EA number... @Shawn any luck for this??)

0.43x MI7 SUN + MON EA: $850k

0.24x Barbie EA: $260k

 

Wish's EA seems like it'll be way lower than Trolls, a lot less interest for that. Pegging it at around $250-500k. For Tuesday? Well I just lost the TMNT comp, which was far and away the best one so.... don't think I'll be of much help with this one sadly.

 

Napoleon (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	62	134	406	8960	4.53

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		276	100	67.98
MTC1:		195	59	48.03
Marcus:		95	30	23.4
Alamo:		46	9	11.33
Other chains:		70	36	17.24

 

Comps:

0.6x KOFM: $1.57 Million

1.69x The Creator (THU): $2.28 Million

0.15x Oppy: $1.59 Million

0.3x MI7 (just TUE): $2.1 Million

 

Average: $1.89 Million

 

Keeps on rising, looking close at that MI7 comp since the weekend being in the middle of these final days always throws a wrench into the pace of things. But not too shabby, all things considered.

Edited November 17, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	485	31553	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.285x) of Mi7 $1.99M

(0.569x) of TMNT $2.19M

Comps AVG: $2.09M

 

(0.766x) of KoTFM $1.99M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	531	31553	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.287x) of Mi7 $2.01M

(0.515x) of TMNT $1.98M

Comps AVG: $1.99M

 

(0.793x) of KoTFM $2.06M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
184	953	34057	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.309x) of Elemental $3.14M Previews 

Adjusted down 30% for ATP

$2.20M Previews 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

391 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
184	1101	34057	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

148

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.363x) of Elemental $3.27M Previews 

(2.603x) of Trolls 3 $3.38M Previews 

AVG Adjusted down 30% for ATP

$2.33M Previews 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

492 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
104	219	21183	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.482x) of Exorcist $1.37M Previews

(0.091x) of FNAF $941k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.15M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

491 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
104	220	21183	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.477x) of Exorcist $1.36M Previews

(0.087x) of FNAF $897k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.13M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

534 seats sold over 20 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
193	550	35938	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

53

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-28

 

(0.350x) of Indy 5 $2.52M Previews

(0.363x) of TLM $3.74M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.13M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
193	596	35938	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.376x) of Indy 5 $2.70M Previews

(0.387x) of TLM $3.99M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.35M

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think for for Aquabro 2 the 1st question is level of interest in the project. we willl know in 3 days once presales start. I think WB has not done that much for promotion. only 1 trailer so far. Of course Mamoa is hitting talk show circuits. But is that sufficient to build the hype. Only time will tell. Color me a skeptic for now. After all Mamoa himself said this is a dead end for the character.  

I expect pre sales to be a bit of a disaster. This is a movie I think would be doing even worse than the marvels without the very fortunate Christmas no direct comp situation. And that opening means pre-sales could ultimately be pretty useless with lots of walk ups.

[belblazer]

I'm expecting a bomb DOM. $35-45M OW and under $200M final.

 

The global number can still be decent (compared to other CBMs this year) due to China and that's IF they like it.

[TheFlatLannister]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think for for Aquabro 2 the 1st question is level of interest in the project. we willl know in 3 days once presales start. I think WB has not done that much for promotion. only 1 trailer so far. Of course Mamoa is hitting talk show circuits. But is that sufficient to build the hype. Only time will tell. Color me a skeptic for now. After all Mamoa himself said this is a dead end for the character.  

There's radio silence regarding this film. Even The Flash had more anticipation. Either WB knowns they have a stinker on their hands or they are too broke to do anything. 

[Porthos]

55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think for for Aquabro 2 the 1st question is level of interest in the project. we willl know in 3 days once presales start. I think WB has not done that much for promotion. only 1 trailer so far. Of course Mamoa is hitting talk show circuits. But is that sufficient to build the hype. Only time will tell. Color me a skeptic for now. After all Mamoa himself said this is a dead end for the character.  

 

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

There's radio silence regarding this film. Even The Flash had more anticipation. Either WB knowns they have a stinker on their hands or they are too broke to do anything. 

 

The situations are different, but I do think it could be similar to [FILM INTENTIONALLY NOT MENTIONED] where circumstances out of studio's control led to a Less Than Ideal rollout.

 

As such [FILM NOT MENTIONED TO STAY AWAY FROM FLAME WARS] might be a useful benchmark if not a comp.

 

---

 

Okay, memeing/joking about Board Culture/Taboo Subjects aside, could have a broadly similar situation to The Marvels, even if the pre-sale pattern won't be particularly useful due to differences in MCU and DCEU buying patterns.

 

History rhyming not repeating, as it were.

 

Still, and to keep this on topic, I don't particularly think The Marvels will be a good comp at all for Aquaman 2, but I will be looking for... similar dynamics in pre-sale patterns I think is the safe, neutral, non-flamewary way to put it.

[abracadabra1998]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Still, and to keep this on topic, I don't particularly think The Marvels will be a good comp at all for Aquaman 2, but I will be looking for... similar dynamics in pre-sale patterns I think is the safe, neutral, non-flamewary way to put it.

You’ll get the marvels as a comp and you’ll LIKE it

 

(What I mean is I really really really wish I had comps that went earlier than July…)

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

You’ll get the marvels as a comp and you’ll LIKE it

 

(What I mean is I really really really wish I had comps that went earlier than July…)

 

shorter abracadabra1998 as he unleashes his Terror Star Comp Project on the thread:

 

[keysersoze123]

This movie is having 30 day PS cycle and so in line with Marvels and so its optimal comps. both movies have similar audience base(male driven) and since MCU have come to DCEU level now, they are perfectly comparable. 

 

For the rest any DCEU comps are good. Black Adam, Shazam 2, Flash and Blue Beetle. 

[Relevation]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Still, and to keep this on topic, I don't particularly think The Marvels will be a good comp at all for Aquaman 2, but I will be looking for... similar dynamics in pre-sale patterns I think is the safe, neutral, non-flamewary way to put it.

I agree on The Marvels, it just had too many crippling factors against it and it was so frontloaded that it just doesn’t work as a comp to the comparatively more backloaded DCEU. I think you lucked out with having that Black Adam comp, I think that’ll be the most apt in terms of level of fan rush and reception catalysts. 

[HummingLemon496]

I started a discussion it seems

 

I'm a little more optimistic on this one. We already know it's gonna have the best opening weekend for a sequel to a December 2018 comic book movie since Across the Spider-Verse 

Edited November 18, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I expect pre sales to be a bit of a disaster. This is a movie I think would be doing even worse than the marvels without the very fortunate Christmas no direct comp situation. And that opening means pre-sales could ultimately be pretty useless with lots of walk ups.

[MovieMan89]

Lol, by “lots” of walk-ups I mean relative to pre-sales, not relative to being an actual breakout hit. 

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, by “lots” of walk-ups I mean relative to pre-sales, not relative to being an actual breakout hit. 

Don't worry, I was just joking because I put a GIF of Micheal Keaton. It's basically an eternal meme at this point, on par with Morbius memes

Edited November 18, 2023 by HummingLemon496