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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/16/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
11/22/2023 Napoleon $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 +11% $23,000,000 – $32,000,000 $57,000,000 – $77,500,000 +11% Sony Pictures / Apple
11/22/2023 Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17)           Amazon Studios / MGM
11/22/2023 Wish $40,000,000 – $60,000,000   $57,000,000 – $86,800,000 $165,000,000 – $289,000,000   Walt Disney Pictures
12/1/2023 Godzilla Minus One $5,000,000 – $9,000,000     $9,000,000 – $18,000,000   Toho International
12/1/2023 Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé $27,000,000 – $36,000,000     $40,000,000 – $80,000,000   AMC Theatres Distribution
12/1/2023 The Shift $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 NEW   $6,000,000 – $21,000,000 NEW Angel Studios
12/1/2023 Silent Night $4,000,000 – $9,000,000     $10,000,000 – $27,000,000   Lionsgate
12/8/2023 The Boy and the Heron           GKIDS
12/8/2023 Eileen (Wide Expansion; Platform Dec. 1)           NEON
12/8/2023 Poor Things (Limited)           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/15/2023 American Fiction (Limited)           MGM / MRC
12/15/2023 Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 😎           Lotte Entertainment
12/15/2023 Wonka $25,000,000 – $35,000,000     $125,000,000 – $210,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-wonka/

 

20 hours ago, M37 said:

Given the release date, should be good for a >5x OW total. So ~$25-$40M OW for the under $225M range, or ~$60M+ for the over $325M blow-up (because in between those values is not a target one should aim for) 

 

Im much more in the former camp, something like 8x-10x IM range (don’t quote me on that), so like $2.5-$5M preview is roughly the target range IMO. Will have to think about comps, but honestly Transformers mentioned above doesn’t seem terrible 

 

XN-Uie.gif

 

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Thanksgiving, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 95 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 30 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 16 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 73 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 138 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 365.

Up ok 40% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): Smile (2M from previews) had 467 sold tickets,
The Invitation (775k) had 218,
M3gan (2.75M) had 782,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164,
The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 241,
HK (4.85M) had 1.314

and HE (5.4M) had 1.557 sold tickets.

So from the comps between 1-1.5M and I rather tend to the upper region.

 

Thanksgiving, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 19 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 48 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): (9 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 349.

Up mediocre 32% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Smile had 549 sold tickets,
Old had 500,
The Invitation had 204,
The Nun II had 1.106,

M3gan had 752,
Prey for the Devil had 262,
Saw X had 622,
HK had 1.575
and HE had 1.561 sold tickets.


The same as on Monday, between 10-15M. Depends on walk-ups and WOM which I can't value at all being from Europe. When it comes to „normal" horror movies that works quite fine. But here, with E. Roth and Grindhouse involved, no idea.

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23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Thanksgiving OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 7pm ATP $12.52
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-5 13 24 3 22 2,921 0.75% 15.79%
T-4 13 24 6 28 2,921 0.96% 27.27%
T-3 14 26 4 32 3,089 1.04% 14.29%
T-2 19 33 26 58 3,470 1.67% 81.25%
T-1 20 35 31 89 3,626 2.45% 53.45%
 
MTC1 6 11 +13 53 1,034 5.13% 32.50%
MTC2 4 7 +1 7 959 0.73% 16.67%
MTC3 2 4 +12 19 542 3.51% 171.43%
Other 8 13 +5 10 1,091 0.92% 100.00%
 
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door 0.231x = $1.15m
Talk To Me 0.701x = $0.87m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter 0.873x = $0.65m
The Nun II 0.280x = $0.87m
Saw X 0.228x = $0.46m
The Exorcist: Believer 0.259x = $0.74m

 

Comp average: $790k

 

Thanksgiving OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 7pm ATP $12.50
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-4 13 24 6 28 2,921 0.96% 27.27%
T-3 14 26 4 32 3,089 1.04% 14.29%
T-2 19 33 26 58 3,470 1.67% 81.25%
T-1 20 35 31 89 3,626 2.45% 53.45%
T-0 20 35 99 188 3,626 5.18% 111.24%
 
MTC1 6 11 +45 98 1,034 9.48% 84.91%
MTC2 4 7 +8 15 959 1.56% 114.29%
MTC3 2 4 +15 34 542 6.27% 78.95%
Other 8 13 +31 41 1,091 3.76% 310.00%
 
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door 0.154x = $0.77m
Talk To Me 0.606x = $0.76m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter 0.699x = $0.52m
The Nun II 0.258x = $0.80m
Saw X 0.330x = $0.66m
The Exorcist: Believer 0.278x = $0.79m

 

Comp average: $720k

 

Evidently good walkups but it can only go so far from such a low base.

 

Prediction is $750k (+/- $100k)

 

Next Goal Wins not really worth a separate post - 29 tickets sold. It will be lucky to reach $100k previews (i.e. not worth reporting).

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22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-29 *First few Hours

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

187

497

34702

1.4%

*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-29

 

(0.511x) of Oppenheimer $5.37M Previews

(0.324x) of Indy 5 $2.34M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.86M

 

No signs of an early breakout

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-28

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

193

550

35938

1.5%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

53

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-28

 

(0.350x) of Indy 5 $2.52M Previews

(0.363x) of TLM $3.74M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.13M

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

73

217

15022

1.4%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-15

 

(0.482x) of Exorcist $1.37M Previews

(0.093x) of FNAF $960k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.17M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

442 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

104

219

21183

1.0%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-14

 

(0.482x) of Exorcist $1.37M Previews

(0.091x) of FNAF $941k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.15M

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

491 seats sold over 20 showings 

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

160

452

30797

1.5%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.282x) of Mi7 $1.98M

(0.534x) of TMNT $2.05M

Comps AVG: $2.02M

 

(0.741x) of KoTFM $1.93M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

 

Its stringing together some pretty good days. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

164

485

31553

1.5%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.285x) of Mi7 $1.99M

(0.569x) of TMNT $2.19M

Comps AVG: $2.09M

 

(0.766x) of KoTFM $1.99M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

184

899

34057

2.6%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-6

 

(1.312x) of Elemental $3.15M Previews 

Adjusted down 30% for ATP

$2.21M Previews 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

339 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

184

953

34057

2.8%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-5

 

(1.309x) of Elemental $3.14M Previews 

Adjusted down 30% for ATP

$2.20M Previews 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

391 seats sold over 10 showings 

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On 11/15/2023 at 6:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

133

295

22625

1.3%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-1

 

(0.260x) of Exorcist $741K Previews

(0.618x) of Haunting at Venice $742K Previews

Comps AVG: $742k

 

Very good increase against comps

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

135

525

22976

2.3%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

230

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-0

 

(0.318x) of Exorcist $906K Previews

(0.648x) of Haunting at Venice $777K Previews

Comps AVG: $842k

 

Really strong final day

I'll say $850k +/- $100k

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15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-1]

1962/17436 (11.25% sold) [+389 tickets] [141 showings]

 

0.94327x GBA at T-1                [4.80m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.64710x FB3 at T-1                 [3.88m]
0.62207x BA at T-1                   [4.73m]
0.39445x TLM at T-1               [4.06m]
0.27889x AtSV at T-1               [4.84m]
0.57168x RotB at T-1                [5.03m]
0.38075x FNAF at T-1              [3.92m]
0.68577x The Marvels at T-1  [4.53m]

 

=====

 

Yeaaaah, I dunno.  5m looking really dicey if Sacramento is indicative.

 

Right about now is when I remind everyone that the patented Sacto Dark Magic™ does not (necessarily) apply to Quick and Dirty's, but... Well, trend arrow is in the wrong direction.  Could still clear 5m, especially since nearly every other market looks to be performing better.  On the other hand, when literally only one comp is clearing 5m and that only just...

 

Meh.  Just not doing well here, probably.  Either that or shitty comps.


Find out soon enuf, I suppose.

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [FINAL] [3:55pm - 4:15pm]

(all showtimes before 3:55pm sampled at start of showing)

2701/18076 (14.94% sold) [+739 tickets] [148 showings]

 

0.89024x GBA at T-0                [4.53m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.60615x FB3 at T-0                 [3.64m]
0.60102x BA at T-0                   [4.57m]
0.86184x Scream VI at T-0       [4.91m]
0.41168x TLM at T-0                 [4.24m]
0.27720x AtSV at T-0                [4.81m]
0.54313x RotB at T-0                [4.78m]

0.22365x Barbie at T-0             [4.99m]
0.41772x FNAF at T-0               [4.30m]
0.68798x The Marvels at T-0   [4.54m]

 

====

 

The odds were not ever in BOSS's favor here, it would appear.  Not even Barbie, which had severe capacity restraints, spits out a 5m comp (though that just missed).

 

I'm sure if I trawled through my allllll of my comps I could find one that by sheer happenstance is correct(-ish), but call a spade a spade.  Just didn't perform well here.   At all. 

 

I mean, if Barbie doesn't even spit out a 5m comp, not sure what I can do!  After a semi-quick check, the only one that's in the right ballpark genre rise even vaguely that randomly comes closer to other markets is Shazam 2 at 5.52m.  But that's extreme cherry-picking.

 

So it'll be off, but since i detest herding, for the record let's go with 4.8m +/- .4m coming out of Sacramento.

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14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [FINAL] [3:55pm - 4:15pm]

(all showtimes before 3:55pm sampled at start of showing)

2701/18076 (14.94% sold) [+739 tickets] [148 showings]

 

0.89024x GBA at T-0                [4.53m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.60615x FB3 at T-0                 [3.64m]
0.60102x BA at T-0                   [4.57m]
0.86184x Scream VI at T-0       [4.91m]
0.41168x TLM at T-0                 [4.24m]
0.27720x AtSV at T-0                [4.81m]
0.54313x RotB at T-0                [4.78m]

0.22365x Barbie at T-0             [4.99m]
0.41772x FNAF at T-0               [4.30m]
0.68798x The Marvels at T-0   [4.54m]

 

====

 

The odds were not ever in BOSS's favor here, it would appear.  Not even Barbie, which had severe capacity restraints, spits out a 5m comp (though that just missed).

 

I'm sure if I trawled through my allllll of my comps I could find one that by sheer happenstance is correct(-ish), but call a spade a spade.  Just didn't perform well here.   At all. 

 

I mean, if Barbie doesn't even spit out a 5m comp, not sure what I can do!  After a semi-quick check, the only one that's in the right ballpark genre rise even vaguely that randomly comes closer to other markets is Shazam 2 at 5.52m.  But that's extreme cherry-picking.

 

So it'll be off, but since i detest herding, for the record let's go with 4.8m +/- .4m coming out of Sacramento.

Obi Wan GIF by Star Wars
 

Maybe the Dark Magic pulls one out again (a weaker West Coast in general could drag down numbers), but I suspect it’s more a combination of female-skewing crowd (see Barbie & Scream VI) plus a less metro audience (Indy & TGM, but without the dad-action bump that keeps your market in line)

 

The only other comp I see above Shazam (higher PSM) would be Oppy, but that was driven by a huge PLF share and capacity limitations 

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I’m with @keysersoze123 BOSS is selling pretty well everywhere I look. Can’t really see it missing 5M either, I’d go 5.5 tbh. 
 

Thanksgiving is pretty disappointing tonight, could see it barely scraping by 10. Next Goal wins isn’t doing as… terribly as I thought it might. 4-5M could happen as long as audiences don’t hate it.

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12 hours ago, M37 said:

Hunger Games: BoSS Preview Tracking T-1 Update

 

At the risk of repeating myself: still looking like $5.5-$6M Thursday to me

iAM2PFB.png

 

MTC1 should hit (or at least be very close to) 100K at final (+50%), and if we see very good walk-ups (like Fast X/JWD level) then 110K is in play. Sacto is likely to underindex on this title, as it seems to be playing to a more casual audience (see Minny and esp OK comp values), less the traditional fan audience that brings out the Dark Magic

 

Trolls

Rather than write another post ....

Those MTC1 sales are terrible, but looking at regional comps think ~$1.5M, maybe a bit under.  Friday sales are better, but also not really inspiring. Think the pre-Thanksgiving opening means families know they have a 10.5 day window rather than a true OW, and with little fan rush is spreading demand out a bit, and/or the presence of Wish is holding back sales as well. Definitely thinking more mid-$20s opening now (and again I don't understand this release date choice rather than 1-2 weekends earlier)

Assuming MTC1 comes in the ~100K final mark I have penciled in, the final comp average for HG:BoSS would land at $5.71M (which is coincidentally where Minny (MSP) ended up, the only market for which there is no final update, so no effect on the average)

 

With that track complete (pending final and actual numbers), just a heads up that I'll be shifting from active to more passive status for a little while, putting away my spreadsheets and charts, as I have lots of family coming to visit through the TG holiday. [Somehow, despite moving to a different state, we got volunteered to host yet again?]. Plan to pick back up for the holiday releases ... presuming any of those films look worthy of the effort

 

One final note, that I suppose you could classify under "buzz": after watching a TV spot for Wonka, my teenage daughter goes:

 

"That's not Willy Wonka"

 

"Why? Its just a prequel"

 

"Cause he's hot.🥵 Wonka is not supposed to be hot, so that can't be him"

 

Adjust your forecasts accordingly :wiggle:

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48 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [FINAL] [3:55pm - 4:15pm]

(all showtimes before 3:55pm sampled at start of showing)

2701/18076 (14.94% sold) [+739 tickets] [148 showings]

 

0.89024x GBA at T-0                [4.53m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.60615x FB3 at T-0                 [3.64m]
0.60102x BA at T-0                   [4.57m]
0.86184x Scream VI at T-0       [4.91m]
0.41168x TLM at T-0                 [4.24m]
0.27720x AtSV at T-0                [4.81m]
0.54313x RotB at T-0                [4.78m]

0.22365x Barbie at T-0             [4.99m]
0.41772x FNAF at T-0               [4.30m]
0.68798x The Marvels at T-0   [4.54m]

 

====

 

The odds were not ever in BOSS's favor here, it would appear.  Not even Barbie, which had severe capacity restraints, spits out a 5m comp (though that just missed).

 

I'm sure if I trawled through my allllll of my comps I could find one that by sheer happenstance is correct(-ish), but call a spade a spade.  Just didn't perform well here.   At all. 

 

I mean, if Barbie doesn't even spit out a 5m comp, not sure what I can do!  After a semi-quick check, the only one that's in the right ballpark genre rise even vaguely that randomly comes closer to other markets is Shazam 2 at 5.52m.  But that's extreme cherry-picking.

 

So it'll be off, but since i detest herding, for the record let's go with 4.8m +/- .4m coming out of Sacramento.

This franchise fell off badly...

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15 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I’m with @keysersoze123 BOSS is selling pretty well everywhere I look. Can’t really see it missing 5M either, I’d go 5.5 tbh. 
 

Thanksgiving is pretty disappointing tonight, could see it barely scraping by 10. Next Goal wins isn’t doing as… terribly as I thought it might. 4-5M could happen as long as audiences don’t hate it.

I mean…you’re in Canada. Makes sense Thanksgiving wouldn’t perform well there. (Yes I know you have Thanksgiving but…you know what I mean lol)

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40 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

We will see if Dark Magic fails here. I am finding it hard to believe its missing 5m. 

 

Always say Dark Magic Does Not (Necessarily) Apply for Quick and Dirty checks for a reason. 🙂 

 

(more on this below)

 

44 minutes ago, M37 said:

but I suspect it’s more a combination of female-skewing crowd (see Barbie & Scream VI) plus a less metro audience (Indy & TGM, but without the dad-action bump that keeps your market in line)

 

The only other comp I see above Shazam (higher PSM) would be Oppy, but that was driven by a huge PLF share and capacity limitations 

 

Maybe.  Not sure I buy the female-skewing crowd point as if anything TLM over-performed here, and by quite a bit.  So too did Frozen 2 back in the day.  Scream VI is difficult to really suss due to Fan Event showing and 3D so I'm leaving that to the side.  As I think about it a bit more, both FB2 and FB3 also radically over-performed here, FWIW, and they stereotypically had a strong female fanbase (at least as memory serves — didn't check out the OW demos so I could be wrong). So while there might be something there I don't know if we have enough data to truly say.

 

I mean anything that tries to explain FB2/FB3 over-performing but BOSS under-performing is gonna be... a difficult circle to square.  Beyond the old standby of Random Shit Happens (esp with few data points).

 

Could also be something that @TwoMisfits has mentioned that I'm thinking more and more about.

 

I do joke that my Q&Ds aren't indicative mostly because I just don't have that many sub 7m comps.  And the ones I do have I don't keep detailed records on, have haphazardly, etc.

 

But I'm also starting to wonder if the lack of A-List AMC "Sure why not" movie ticket buying might be mattering on these lower grossers.  The main driver here is Cinemark, which has a very different Movie Club ticket plan.  Even Regal isn't really the same as AMCs.  Cinema West also has its own movie club, but it's geared toward the points model as I look at it.

 

So it could be that lack of AMC impulse buying is dragging down sub 7m comps and I just don't have enough of those in my database to find better ones. 

Edited by Porthos
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