The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	116	25978	0.44%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.806x) of Greek Wedding 3 $443k Previews

(0.569x) of Asteroid City $626k Previews

Comps AVG: $535k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	135	25978	0.52%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.828x) of Greek Wedding 3 $456k Previews

(0.534x) of Asteroid City $587k Previews

Comps AVG: $522k

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1072	38536	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.147x) of Blue Beetle $3.78M Previews

(0.381x) of The Flash $3.70M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.74M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1094	38536	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

22

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.148x) of Blue Beetle $3.79M Previews

(0.372x) of The Flash $3.61M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.70M

 

It's still falling fast against Flash comp 

[misterpepp]

@Shawn Robbins I noticed you had the location count for Poor Things set at 450 this weekend in the BOP forecast, but I believe the location count for it has been confirmed at 82. I'm assuming that changes the projection?

Edited December 14, 2023 by misterpepp

[Relevation]

@TheFlatLannister Do you have numbers for Mean Girls? I believe that went on sale yesterday 

[M37]

33 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

1.148x) of Blue Beetle $3.79M Previews

(0.372x) of The Flash $3.61M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.70M

 

It's still falling fast against Flash comp

Keep in mind Flash had a weird trajectory, in that it had stronger T-14 to T-7 sales period, but then petered out before the final day; had and anti-review bump of sorts when those were released (at T-9 I think?)

 

Still think there’s room to climb up to $4M+ with the holiday/summer-ish walk up friendly date, but an OW below Shazam 2 is probably locked in, as grosses will be backloaded from Xmas onward 

[TheFlatLannister]

26 minutes ago, Relevation said:

@TheFlatLannister Do you have numbers for Mean Girls? I believe that went on sale yesterday 

Probably won't start tracking it until late next week

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Wonka Sacramento Report [T-1]

1266/26772 (4.73% sold) [+243 tickets] 211 showtimes

 

1.18148x  Shazam 2 at T-1              [4.02m]
0.25392x TLM at T-1                       [2.62m]
0.17953x AtSV at T-1                       [3.11m]
0.36801x RotB at T-1                       [3.24m]

1.29052x Elemental at T-1               [3.10m]
0.13361x Barbie at T-1                     [2.98m]
0.88694x Haunted Mansion at T-1 [2.75m]
1.10789x  Blue Beetle at T-1            [3.66m]
0.24510x FNAF at T-1                      [2.52m]
0.64373x BOSS                                [3.70m]

 

 

Quick and Dirty Wonka Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:55pm - 4:20pm]

*NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:55pm were sampled at the beginning of the screening.

1975/26769 (7.38% sold) [+709 tickets] 211 showtimes

 

1.18761x   Shazam 2 at T-0                 [4.04m]
0.30102x  TLM at T-0                          [3.10m]
0.20269x  AtSV at T-0                        [3.52m]
0.39714x   RotB at T-0                        [3.49m]
0.16353x  Barbie at T-0                      [3.65m]
0.85832x  Haunted Mansion at T-0  [2.66m]
1.07806x   Blue Beetle at T-0             [3.56m]
0.30544x  FNAF at T-0                       [3.15m]
0.73121x    BOSS at T-0                      [4.20m]

 

=====

 

Decent enough walkups today, but nothing special to write home about.  Haunted Mansion is sticking out like a sore thumb, but I've come to believe that hella over-performed here.  On the other hand, The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes under-performed locally.  

 

Broadly in line with everyone else, but lets go with 3.6m +/- .3m and call it a night.

 

(as always, no Dark Magic claims on Q&Ds)

[DAJK]

Won't have time to do a full track of Wonka tonight but looking right now, pre-sales for tonight are relatively strong. Would be surprised if it went under 3. Expecting 3.3-3.5. If walkups are really strong I might be willing to say close to 4 but I won't be able to check.

[Porthos]

40 minutes ago, Relevation said:

@TheFlatLannister Do you have numbers for Mean Girls? I believe that went on sale yesterday 

 

Took a look around town last night for shits and giggles and it sold just a skosh under Wonka's D1, locally (Mean Girls: 52 | Wonka 57) with roughly half of those sales on Wed EA's.

[rehpyc]

With just a quick look at MTC data readily at hand, put me down for 3.5.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/10/2023 at 7:24 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	27	283	15086	1.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		240	20	84.81
MTC1:		174	15	61.48
Marcus:		42	1	14.84
Alamo:		25	4	8.83
Other chains:		42	7	14.84

 

IP Blockbuster Comps:

0.66x Hunger Games: $3.78 Million

0.29x FNAF: $2.99 Million

0.42x MI7: $2.92 Million

0.34x Indiana Jones: $2.44 Million

 

 

Average: $3.03 Million

 

Superhero Comps:

0.27x The Marvels: $1.81 Million

2.26x Blue Beetle: $7.47 Million 

 

Decided to separate the two superhero comps from the rest, they're not great comps (MCU is not comparable, and Blue Beetle had a 16-day window, almost half of Aquaman).

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	84	60	343	15510	2.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		277	37	80.76
MTC1:		219	45	63.85
Marcus:		45	3	13.12
Alamo:		30	5	8.75
Other chains:		49	7	14.29

 

Comps:

0.48x Hunger Games: $2.74 Million

0.28x FNAF: $2.84 Million

0.37x MI7: $2.67 Million

0.37x Indiana Jones: $2.66 Million

0.28x The Marvels: $1.82 Million

1.8x Blue Beetle: $5.93 Million 

 

Average: $3.11 Million

 

Just bleh all around, Blue Beetle is pulling up the average hard.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/10/2023 at 7:24 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Migration (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	71	20	51	8791	0.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		7	0	13.73
MTC1:		23	3	45.1
Marcus:		7	7	13.73
Alamo:		8	5	15.69
Other chains:		13	5	25.49

 

Comp:

1.02x Trolls Band Together: $1.33 Million

0.36x Wish (TUE): $650k

0.3x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $925k

 

Average: $970k

 

Because of Wish's discount Tuesday, I would put the actual average closer to $1-1.1 Million. 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Migration (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	75	22	73	9413	0.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		12	5	16.44
MTC1:		27	4	36.99
Marcus:		11	4	15.07
Alamo:		8	0	10.96
Other chains:		27	14	36.99

 

Comps:

0.79x Trolls Band Together: $1.03 Million

0.38x Wish (TUE): $680k

0.3x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $940k

 

Average: $880k

 

Closer to a million average with a Wish Tuesday adjustment, but bleh

 

Anyone But You (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	49	29	29	3662	0.79

 

Comps:

0.56x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $305k

0.4x Joy Ride (w/ EA): $435k

 

Average: $370k

 

No Hard Feelings is tricky because that really exploded near the end, so I'm not sure that is very applicable here. Anyways, mega blah

 

The Iron Claw numbers coming on Sunday

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/11/2023 at 5:36 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	66	418	1097	7122	15.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		38	38	3.46
MTC1:		457	157	41.66
Marcus:		159	52	14.49
Alamo:		140	98	12.76
Other chains:		341	111	31.08

 

Comps:

5.71x Wonka: ???

3.26x Killers of the Flower Moon: $8.46 Million

1.34x FNAF: $13.81 Million

0.83x Oppy: $8.71 Million

1.87x MI7: $13.1 Million

0.87x Barbie (THU): $18.47 Million

 

Average: $12.51 Million

 

 

So basically in the last four days it sold here almost the same that Wonka has sold in its entire run... this doesn't seem real lmao. I concur with @Porthos on the ATP concerns (matinee tickets plus virtually no PLF, though that might change a bit from now on), but I am waiting on others more knowledgeable than me to speak on exactly what adjustment to make. Still though, pure insanity

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	73	395	1492	7831	19.05

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		78	40	5.23
MTC1:		625	168	41.89
Marcus:		203	44	13.61
Alamo:		162	22	10.86
Other chains:		502	161	33.65

 

Comps:

6.17x Wonka: ??? (going with the $3.5 Million number that seems to be the consensus --> $21.58 Million)

3.9x Killers of the Flower Moon: $10.13 Million

1.53x FNAF: $15.76 Million

0.86x Barbie (THU): $18.33 Million

 

Unadjusted Average: $16.45 Million 

 

Adjusted* Average: $11.52 Million

 

*Adjusted down %30 from key's numbers, not my own tracking

 

As for Mean Girls, for some reason it seems like the MTC1 theaters around town haven't added any showings, so it wouldn't make much sense to start tracking it. Going to wait for them to add it before setting up sheets.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, rehpyc said:

With just a quick look at MTC data readily at hand, put me down for 3.5.

Wonka MTC1

Previews Final - 62734/570378 1046560.20 2947 shows

Friday - 60643/965255 990758.59 5035 shows

Saturday - 48494/1020281 727526.96 5341 shows

 

I think rehpyc should be accurate. I am hoping for slightly smaller ratio for MTC1 and it hits 3.7m(28% ratio). I dont have full MTC2 data but it looks very good over there based on sample data I can see. 

 

Friday had a good day and I am expecting great walkups tomorrow. I think 10m true friday is in play. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

On 12/13/2023 at 8:13 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 23516/508989 462825.76 2602 shows

Friday - 14910/721297 277602.72 3714 shows

 

 

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 25544/507030 501057.56 2600 shows

Friday - 16795/727776 310726.43 3764 shows

 

 

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Took a look around town last night for shits and giggles and it sold just a skosh under Wonka's D1, locally (Mean Girls: 52 | Wonka 57) with roughly half of those sales on Wed EA's.

 

Thanks almost exclusively to the EA, Mean Girls D2 has now passed Wonka's D2 (80 vs 73) locally.   EA now counts for a little more than half of the sales so far (44/36). 

 

Fan rush, of a sort, is going on here, I would say. But this still is a pretty strong start, IMO — well, relatively speaking.

 

No other comments right now on the situation. Probably won't make any other local updates on it, informally or otherwise, for a good long while.  But thought it would be of vague interest to note that it did indeed pass Wonka locally.  How long that holds up, I have no idea.

[Spidey Freak]

Re Fandango, here's last year's list for reference

 

No Barbenheimer (going by this list, it would have looked like they would've opened to #2 and #3 to Dead Reckoning's 2nd weekend), Mario barely making it in at #10, Quantumania at #3! (though TBF it had a decent OW and then it was all downhill from there), GotG3 over AtSV, Indy in Top 5, The Little Mermaid not figuring in the Top 10 even tho domestically Ariel's at #6 etc.

 

The list also seems to skew older with the likes of John Wick and Indiana Jones TROUNCING Mario even tho we know what actually happened at the BO. So I'm not putting too much into Beetlejuice and Ghostbusters's rankings in this year's list.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Spidey Freak

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 81

New Sales since last update: 12

Growth: 17%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 11/5

Early Evening: 66 /9

Late Evening: 4/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 16/6

Dolby:  3/1

IMAX: 11/3

IMAX 3D: 24/3

4dx: 0/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 25/1

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.200x of The Marvels for $1.3M

0.420x of HG:BoSS for $2.4M

0.234x of FNAF for $2.4M

Avg: $2.0M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

2.61x Blue Beetle for $8.6M

 

First off, not a great day, with a big drop in growth rate. It's still makig ground on Marvels and HG. It's just doing it slowly.

 

The FNAF comp is turning bad quickly as expected.

 

But, the Blue Beetle comp is probably the most eye catching. Since it's probably the best comp, I've tried to force it a bit. Blue Beetle was tracked over 48 theatres. Aquaman is only tracked against 5. BB under indexed here as well, likely due to the demographics.

 

But, BB was a really strong perfrmer down the stretch, which I don't expect Aquaman to maintain (but we'll see if this ticket trio deal gives it a boost).

 

 

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 88

New Sales since last update: 7

Growth: 9%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 11/5

Early Evening: 69 /9

Late Evening: 8/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 16/6

Dolby:  3/1

IMAX: 11/3

IMAX 3D: 25/3

4dx: 2/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 29/1

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.201x of The Marvels for $1.3M

0.419x of HG:BoSS for $2.4M

0.186x of FNAF for $2.0M

Avg: $1.9M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

1.97x Blue Beetle for $6.5M

 

We're into single digit growth, which is not going to help it catch up. It stayed pretty perfectly even with Marvels and HG. It continues to fall against FNAF as expected.

 

Despite the methodology shakiness, the BB comp is the most interesting though. By T-7, BB sold 27% of what it sold by T-1. Im skeptical if Aquaman can hold that pace.

[Porthos]

For what it's worth, Aquaman 2 is doing relatively well in Sacramento:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-7]

759/16797 (4.52% sold) [+52 tickets] 101 showtimes

 

1.46525x TSS at T-7                   [6.79m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.54331x Black Adam at T-7      [4.13m]
1.51800x Shazam 2 at T-7          [5.16m]
0.25058x AtSV at T-7                 [4.35m]
0.43772x The Flash at T-7         [4.25m]

 

Of course the ultra-late social/review lift will probably start showing its hand any day now in these comps, so they may not stay in the 4m-5m range.  Find out soon enough.

 

(next update will either be T-3 or T-4, depending on mood/how much the comps are actually moving/how different they are from the consensus)

Edited December 15, 2023 by Porthos

[JonathanMB]

4 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

Re Fandango, here's last year's list for reference

 

No Barbenheimer (going by this list, it would have looked like they would've opened to #2 and #3 to Dead Reckoning's 2nd weekend), Mario barely making it in at #10, Quantumania at #3! (though TBF it had a decent OW and then it was all downhill from there), GotG3 over AtSV, Indy in Top 5, The Little Mermaid not figuring in the Top 10 even tho domestically Ariel's at #6 etc.

 

The list also seems to skew older with the likes of John Wick and Indiana Jones TROUNCING Mario even tho we know what actually happened at the BO. So I'm not putting too much into Beetlejuice and Ghostbusters's rankings in this year's list.

 

Between the two lists there's also a slight bias towards spring releases since they have more advertising (hence Ghostbusters and Dune 2 in the top 4 for 2024) and towards sequels, since Mario is the only non-sequel in either top 10. I also assume that there's a lot of "oh a new ____ movie is coming out? I'm excited for that" which is how Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes made the top 10 last year and the animated Lord of the Rings movie made the list this year even though they've had no real marketing.

 

All that said, I do think Beetlejuice 2 coming in 2nd behind only the one A-list superhero movie is extremely impressive, and shows how much potential it has. It'll basically be Top Gun: Maverick for Gen-Xers and Millennials who made Halloween their entire personality.