The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[iEnri]

Dune will heave an extremely early social and review embargo, WB knows this movie will get amazing reception. Be prepared for spetactular reviews and word of mouth which will be a buge boost to the box office.

[iEnri]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

If someone in the studio was reading this and wanted to figure out how to right the ship, it might make them put out a decision like this:

 

 

I'm not quite sure on this strategy though. Early word of mouth can help, but that's a lot of time for any good press cycles to get lost. This is peak awards season, and that can serve to drown out a lot of chatter. But, only WB knows what they have in the can. Maybe they're highly confident.

 

Of course they are confident, this movie is basically guaranteed to have great reception

Edited February 5 by iEnri

[leoh]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

If someone in the studio was reading this and wanted to figure out how to right the ship, it might make them put out a decision like this:

 

 

I'm not quite sure on this strategy though. Early word of mouth can help, but that's a lot of time for any good press cycles to get lost. This is peak awards season, and that can serve to drown out a lot of chatter. But, only WB knows what they have in the can. Maybe they're highly confident.

 

 

“Early word of mouth can help, but that's a lot of time for any good press cycles to get lost. This is peak awards season, and that can serve to drown out a lot of chatter.”

 

agreed. The only reason I can see to justify this is a desperate attempt to boost Dune pre-sales. Such as  @Shawn Robbins and @M37 pointed out, right now it doesn’t seem Dune will live up to the “Oppenheimer phenomenon” hype.

 

Dune isn’t doing bad at all, it has solid pre-sales, a great ground. The problem is the 1 billion hype put on it by WB and Dune fans.

 

I don’t think it’s a sign of confidence by WB at all because at this point no one will get surprise if it gets another 80%+ on rotten tomatoes. The first one was a masterpiece, so we expect the same for the sequel.

 

Spider-Man Across the spider-verse for example had the embargo lifted the day before its release, on March 31. And I guess no one would seriously argue it was a sign of lack of confidence on Across the Spider-Verse.

Edited February 6 by leoh

[Speedorito]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

“Early word of mouth can help, but that's a lot of time for any good press cycles to get lost. This is peak awards season, and that can serve to drown out a lot of chatter.”

 

agreed. The only reason I can see to justify this is a desperate attempt to boost Dune pre-sales. Such as  @Shawn Robbins and @M37 pointed out, right now it doesn’t seem Dune will live up to the “Oppenheimer phenomenon” hype.

 

Dune isn’t doing bad at all, it has solid pre-sales, a great ground. The problem is the 1 billion hype put on it by WB and Dune fans.

 

I don’t think it’s a sign of confidence by WB at all because at this point no one will get surprise if it gets another 80%+ on rotten tomatoes. The first one was a masterpiece, so we expect the same for the sequel.

 

Spider-Man Across the spider-verse for example had the embargo lifted the day before its release, on March 31. And I guess no away would seriously argue it was a sign of lack of confidence on Across the Spider-Verse.

It’s hard to see this as anything but confidence to me. I highly doubt this is going to be a Flash scenario where they lift all the embargoes and screen it early only for it to backfire hard. But it does seem like they’re trying very hard to build more buzz.

 

The Spiderverse thing was probably to hide the fact that it ended on a cliffhanger.

[ThomasNicole]

21 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

“Early word of mouth can help, but that's a lot of time for any good press cycles to get lost. This is peak awards season, and that can serve to drown out a lot of chatter.”

 

agreed. The only reason I can see to justify this is a desperate attempt to boost Dune pre-sales. Such as  @Shawn Robbins and @M37 pointed out, right now it doesn’t seem Dune will live up to the “Oppenheimer phenomenon” hype.

 

Dune isn’t doing bad at all, it has solid pre-sales, a great ground. The problem is the 1 billion hype put on it by WB and Dune fans.

 

I don’t think it’s a sign of confidence by WB at all because at this point no one will get surprise if it gets another 80%+ on rotten tomatoes. The first one was a masterpiece, so we expect the same for the sequel.

 

Spider-Man Across the spider-verse for example had the embargo lifted the day before its release, on March 31. And I guess no away would seriously argue it was a sign of lack of confidence on Across the Spider-Verse.

But why exactly Dune has to match Oppenheimer? Some people just keeps saying that without any reason

 

From what i’m seeing, without being overly cautious or too confident, the data is showing 70-ish OW scenario (unless it finishes it’s presales cycle slow for some reason), it’s more than fine tbh. 
 

The billion claims from some portions of media etc is just bizarre, i’m not seeing even fans doing this, outlets really need to learn again that not everything needs 1B to succeed.

[leoh]

28 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

It’s hard to see this as anything but confidence to me. I highly doubt this is going to be a Flash scenario where they lift all the embargoes and screen it early only for it to backfire hard. But it does seem like they’re trying very hard to build more buzz.

 

The Spiderverse thing was probably to hide the fact that it ended on a cliffhanger.

 
when I say lack of confidence I mean lack of confidence in Dune pre sales pace towards a box office closer to Oppenheimer. In terms of quality it’s like spider-verse, we kinda know already it’ll be good.

 

However, I think Spider-Verse waiting the day before its release to lift the embargo has more to do with the strategy @vafrow mentioned: to take the most advantage of good press cycles, since Spider-Verse is one of those movies you already know it’ll  get a great reception. But there’re other examples, Avatar Way Of Water also had the ban lifted the day before its first public screenings, on December 13.

Edited February 5 by leoh

[iEnri]

Warner Bros is NOT simply expecting great reception, they are expecting 90 Metacritic score, reactions calling it one of the best scifi movies ever, a pure masterpiece. It is simply that and thats why they are confident. They are expecting much more than Part 1's.

[Speedorito]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

 
when I say lack of confidence I mean lack of confidence in Dune pre sales pace towards a box office closer to Oppenheimer. In terms of quality it’s like spider-verse, we kinda know already it’ll be good.

 

However, I think Spider-Verse spider-verse waiting the day before it’s release to lift the embargo has more to do with the strategy @vafrow mentioned: to take the most advantage of a good press cycles, since Spider-Verse is one of those movies you already know it’ll  get a great reception. But there’re examples, Avatar Way Of Water also had the ban lifted the day before its first public screenings, on December 13.

I think an animated Spider-Man sequel and a sequel to the biggest movie ever are just easier sells than the second half of Dune. I doubt WB is trying to push this to Oppenheimer numbers (even if “rival studios” are predicting it according to the trades) but maybe to push the opening weekend up to 100M.

[dallas]

Warner Bros once again going all out on a single movie, last year it was The Flash, now it's Dune 2. Let's hope Dune can exceed expectations. 

[Last Man Standing]

12 minutes ago, iEnri said:

Warner Bros is NOT simply expecting great reception, they are expecting 90 Metacritic score, reactions calling it one of the best scifi movies ever, a pure masterpiece. It is simply that and thats why they are confident. They are expecting much more than Part 1's.

I doubt they're expecting 90 metacritic score, probably 70+ like the first movie, which is more than adequate.

[leoh]

3 hours ago, iEnri said:

Warner Bros is NOT simply expecting great reception, they are expecting 90 Metacritic score, reactions calling it one of the best scifi movies ever, a pure masterpiece. It is simply that and thats why they are confident. They are expecting much more than Part 1's.

I agree it may be expecting an even better reception, but not even Oppenheimer or KOTF got a 90 Metacritic score, I mean it’s not impossible, but it’s wild if WB is expecting this. Dune 2021 got 74 Metacritic.

Edited February 6 by leoh

[iEnri]

3 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

I doubt they're expecting 90 metacritic score, probably 70+ like the first movie, which is more than adequate.

A score similar to the first is the floor. There are many reasons why Part 2 can have much better reception than Part 1. And WB surely believes in it given how confident they are.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/3/2024 at 4:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
769	27	1353	56.84%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

349

1794

19.45%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

266

1388

19.16%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1336	91	18464	7.24%	13	89

 

No comps today

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
813	44	1353	60.09%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

374

1794

20.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

307

1388

22.12%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1475	139	18464	7.24%	13	89

 

0.820

Guardians T-24

14.35M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/3/2024 at 4:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-26 Thursday

163 Showings

5829

+511

24669

ATP:

18.91

 

T-27 Friday

246 Showings

6526

+538

36905

ATP:

18.18

 

T-28 Saturday

260 Showings

7747

+687

38961

ATP:

17.59

 

T-29 Sunday

237 Showings

4127

+603

35258

ATP:

17.94

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-24 Thursday

163 Showings

6300

+471

24671

ATP:

18.74

0.851

Guardians T-24

14.89M

 

T-25 Friday

246 Showings

7019

+493

36904

ATP:

18.12

1.314

Guardians T-25

40.20M

 

T-26 Saturday

260 Showings

8399

+652

38960

ATP:

17.53

1.379

Guardians T-26

53.63M

 

T-27 Sunday

237 Showings

4657

+530

35260

ATP:

17.78

1.622

Guardians T-27

50.98M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/3/2024 at 4:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-26 Thursday

104 Showings

682

+41

17569

 

T-27 Friday

163 Showings

710

+107

27851

 

T-28 Saturday

168 Showings

637

+87

28816

 

T-29 Sunday

162 Showings

168

+27

27944

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-24 Thursday

104 Showings

737

+55

17565

 

T-25 Friday

163 Showings

805

+95

27845

 

T-26 Saturday

168 Showings

754

+117

28813

 

T-27 Sunday

162 Showings

203

+35

27940

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/4/2024 at 6:18 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2835	93918	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

168

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

793

*47 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.913x) of Blue Beetle $3.01M 

(0.776x) of AquaMan 2 $3.49M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.25M

 

Pace is actually pretty good, but this isn't previews so not exactly a clear picture...

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2902	93918	3.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

67

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

853

*60 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-9

(0.944x) of Blue Beetle $3.11M 

(0.812x) of AquaMan 2 $3.65M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.38M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/4/2024 at 6:14 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3715	104695	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

76

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1560

*14 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(1.456x) of Oppenheimer $15.29M 

(0.960x) of Indy 5 $6.91M 

(2.287x) of Wonka $8.00M 

(2.161x) of Aquaman 2 $9.72M 

 

Comps AVG: $9.98M

 

Pace is behaving more like a CBM than say Wonka or Oppy. The floor is already pretty high though 

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3804	104695	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1607

*47 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-24

 

(1.490x) of Oppenheimer $15.65M 

(0.934x) of Indy 5 $6.72M 

(2.259x) of Wonka $7.91M 

(2.180x) of Aquaman 2 $9.81M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.02M

[dallas]

43 minutes ago, dallas said:

Warner Bros once again going all out on a single movie, last year it was The Flash, now it's Dune 2. Let's hope Dune can exceed expectations. 

Actually I forgot Barbie existed lol, but WB definitely went all out on that too. I'm guessing the movies they'll push this year will be Dune 2 & Joker 2, and possibly Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. 

[Krissykins]

The Bob Marley film is apparently getting a superbowl spot. 

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Lisa Frankenstein (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	36	23	75	5021	1.49

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	2	5.33
MTC1:		28	9	37.33
Marcus:		4	2	5.33
Alamo:		19	6	25.33
Other chains:		24	6	32

 

Comps:

0.8x Thanksgiving: $800k

0.24x Haunted Mansion: $750k

0.38x Exorcist Believer: $1.1 Million

1.25x Last Voyage of Demeter: $940k

0.69x Talk To Me: $865k

 

Average: $890k

 

Tracking daily from now on.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Lisa Frankenstein (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	36	12	87	5021	1.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	0	4.6
MTC1:		35	7	40.23
Marcus:		4	0	4.6
Alamo:		21	2	24.14
Other chains:		27	3	31.03

 

Comps:

0.84x Thanksgiving: $845k

0.37x Exorcist Believer: $1.06 Million

1.26x Last Voyage of Demeter: $945k

0.65x Talk To Me: $810k

 

Average: $915k

 

Took away the Haunted Mansion comp, never did much make sense anyway. Next update at T-1, I will have a The Invitation comp then which is the most direct one one would think. For now thinking 0.75-1 million previews bar a spectacular finish