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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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4 hours ago, YM! said:

Southeast Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking - 5/19/24 - 4 Theaters used (North Shore, Menominee Falls, Brookfield Square, Majestic Cinema

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga    5/23/24    T-4 days til previews, 8 screens (2 per theater), 20 showings (12 PLF/8 2D)   

79 tickets sold (19 - North Shore, 9 at Menominee Falls, 9 at Brookfield Square, 42 at Majestic Cinema) (8 in 2D/53 in PLF)

  • That’s about a 30% increase within the past two days for Furiosa. Not much has changed, it’s seeing the most traffic around the whiter areas of Mequon and Waukesha but pace is solid and growth is normal. We should get a few more shows on Tuesday and I’ll try to track both it and Garfield on Thursday during showings. Feel about right for the 4-5M previews range.


The Garfield Movie    5/23/24    T-4 days til previews, 5 screens (1 per theater but Brookfield Square), 16 showings (12 2D/4 3D)

9 tickets sold (4 at Menominee Falls, 5 at Majestic Cinema) (8 2D/4 3D)   (+50 from EA so 59 total.)

  • Returns are common but apart from a decent EA showing, it feels really muted. Feels like with IF doing solid, it took some air out of Garfield but maybe reviews and a strong last week push Garfield could turn it around but not feeling it rn. Thinking the 1.8-2.25M previews range with EA.

BTW here is the exact Seats sold/Seats available total

Furiosa - T-4 - 79/3689 (19/1137, 9/707, 9/835, 42/1019)

Garfield + EA - T-4 - 59/2065 (including the 50 tickets EA) (0/552, 4/392, 0/577, 5/544)

 

Inside Out 2 - T-27 - 8/6358

Bad Boys Ride or Die - T-20 - 22/5370

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4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Garfield Early Shows

MTC1 -  8972/11208 119102.84 140 shows

MTC2 - 9696/14920 129291.15 125 shows

 

With it being just 1PM regular show on a Sunday, it wont over index on MTC1 like early PLF shows for big movies. Probably around 400k ish for early shows. 

Would guess $500K based on MTC 2

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On 5/12/2024 at 10:17 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-11):

Day: T-11 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 25 theaters 109 102 418 19652 2.13

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 375 95 89.71
MTC1: 262 73 62.68
Alamo: 70 11 16.75
Other chains: 86 18 20.57

 

Comps:

0.91x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.01 Million

1.32x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $4.15 Million

0.83x Godzilla x Kong: $7.65 Million (17 theaters)

1.13x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.33 Million (17 theaters)

0.93x BoSS: $5.34 Million (17 theaters)

0.61x MI7 (TUE): $4.3 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.46 Million

 

GxK obviously really propping the average up but for now I could see that settling at around $5 Million, still good pace!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-4):

Day: T-4 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 25 theaters 114 298 942 20331 4.63

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 816 240 86.62
MTC1: 571 176 60.62
Alamo: 145 34 15.39
Other chains: 226 88 23.99

 

Comps:

1.04x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.84 Million

1.74x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $5.48 Million

0.85x BoSS: $4.86 Million (17 theaters)

0.71x MI7 (TUE): $4.98 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.54 Million

 

Still doing quite well here, we shall see what this final week looks like!

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On 5/12/2024 at 10:27 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-7 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters 99 12 53 12727 0.42
Sunday May 19 EA: 9 theaters 9 21 213 954 22.33
TOTALS: 108 33 266 13681 1.94

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 0 0 0
MTC1: 26 6 49.06
Alamo: 2 2 3.77
Other chains: 25 4 47.17

 

Thursday comps:

0.95x IF: ???

0.37x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.41 Million

0.21x Wonka: $740k

1.09x Trolls 3: $1.41 Million

 

EA Comps:

0.58x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-6): $935k

0.98x Fall Guy (T-6): $785k

1.61x Challengers (T-8): $885k

0.93x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-6): $560k

0.26x Dune Part 2 EA: $510k

0.57x Trolls (T-6): $665k

0.47x MI7 (T-6): $940k

 

EA Average: $755k

 

Still not really accelerating, and the EA is falling against comps

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-4):

Day: T-4 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 25 theaters 104 38 106 13149 0.81

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 6 6 5.66
MTC1: 54 23 50.94
Alamo: 10 8 9.43
Other chains: 42 7 39.62

 

Thursday comps:

0.82x IF: $1.43 Million

0.29x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.09 Million

0.79x Migration: $1.19 Million

0.27x Wonka: $940k

0.8x Trolls 3: $1.04 Million

 

Average: $1.14 Million

 

This could have a good late surge since EA has been sucking away some pre-sales up until this morning, so let's see if this bounces up a little. Not impressed at all at this stage though, not seeing the break-out some are anticipating.

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On 5/18/2024 at 10:55 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-21, Day 1):

Day: T-21 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 23 theaters 122 67 67 20518 0.33

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 62 62 92.54
MTC1: 59 59 88.06
Alamo: 0 0 0
Other chains: 8 8 11.94

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.89x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $5.9 Million

0.96x Fall Guy: $3.02 Million

0.23x GxK: $2.13 Million

0.91x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.07 Million

 

These numbers are from last Thursday, as per my post this morning. This is a more walk-up movie a la Aquaman or Apes so I think it's a pretty good start

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (T-18):

Day: T-18 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 24 theaters 129 36 103 21270 0.48

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 86 24 83.5
MTC1: 84 25 81.55
Alamo: 0 0 0
Other chains: 19 11 18.45

 

Comps: 

0.68x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $3.39 Million

0.92x Fall Guy (THU): $2.16 Million

1.43x Civil War: $4.15 Million

1.03x Monkey Man: $1.44 Million

0.44x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $1.99 Million

 

All of these comps had been on sale for longer, so those will go up, with the exception of Civil War, which went on sale at T-18, so that'll go down. This feels like a walk-up movie so it's hard to find some good comps here, welcome to any ideas

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On 5/14/2024 at 11:04 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-30, Day 1):

Day: T-30 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 25 theaters 180 39 39 29702 0.13

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 26 26 66.67
MTC1: 30 30 76.92
Alamo: 0 0 0
Other chains: 9 9 23.08

 

Day 1 Comps:

1.31x Kung Fu Panda 4: $4.97 Million (17 theaters)

0.72x Wonka: $2.53 Million (17 theaters)

1.42x Trolls (w/ EA): $3.5 Million (17 theaters)

 

Holy numbers of shows and seats! Multiplexes are really expecting a lot here. Sales off the bat not amazing here sadly, but we shall see where it goes

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-25):

Day: T-25 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 23 theaters 177 28 85 29077 0.28

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 46 11 56.79
MTC1: 59 18 72.84
Alamo: 0 0 0
Other chains: 26 10 32.1

 

Comps:

1.57x Kung Fu Panda 4: $5.98 Million

0.8x Wonka: $2.82 Million

1.54x Wish (TUE): $2.78 Million 

 

Put me with Katniss here, not impressed at all with the numbers so far here sadly :( 

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MTC1 Previews(T-4)

Garfield - 5728/324232 81898.14 2038 shows +1215 ( +2 days)

Furiosa -  35009/413530 720401.08 2085 shows +3355 ( just under a day of data)

 

Furiosa is accelerating at the right time. Garfield is still pacing similar to what I saw 2 days ago. Just awful number from the movie. Around what Trolls did late last year and that burned way more through its early shows which was like 12 days before its release. 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/18/2024 at 8:07 AM, toutvabien said:

How did Marvels fare? Also, what about NWH?

I'd think Thor 4 is a fair comparison for DP&W considering it was a hyped July opener? Can we expect better IM due it being last weekend of the month vs early July for Thor?

NWH was un trackable on its OD. it had a short PS cycle and was selling out like gazillion shows. I would think it would be 400K ish OD. 

 

Marvels had also issues during its OD. Earliest data was from T-22 and that was at 40389. I think its OD was under Eternals which was around 31K if I am not wrong. I think for now Marvels is its own beast and we should not compare any other movie with it for now. 

 

I agree that Thor 4 is the most logical comp but that had mehWOM and so its IM was terrible. Let us see how things go for  Deadpool 3.  That said Thor 4 previews were excellent. Since its previews was 3 days after July 4, its final surge was stronger than even DS2. I dont think there is any difference between early and late July. All schools/colleges will still be off. Only from August onwards things will start to change. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

NWH was untrackable on its OD. it had a short PS cycle and was selling out like gazillion shows. I would think it would be 400K ish OD. 

 

Marvels had also issues during its OD. Earliest data was from T-22 and that was at 40389. I think its OD was under Eternals which was around 31K if I am not wrong. I think for now Marvels is its own beast and we should not compare any other movie with it for now. 

Wait I just realized every MCU movie from NWH to The Marvels declined in initial OD sales, damn

 

NWH is the BVS of the MCU

Edited by HummingLemon496
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Posted (edited)

I'm just gonna wait until a few more people buy Thursday tickets for IO2 before counting that up again at the theater I'm looking at.

 

Safe to say the fan rush has ended, and it might not be immediately on casual family aud radar when they're making memorial Day plans and there are two other kids movies out or about to be out.

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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11 hours ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I don’t usually track but I was looking at the showings for Inside Out 2 for Thursday previews (June 13) in a theater near me (not in my town but about 40 miles away). There is an almost completely sold out showing. Out of 195 seats, 175 were sold. Where I live there seems to be real interest. I think if I do some rough math I counted about more than 400 tickets sold on Thursday for theaters near me, but I thought I’d point this out cause it kind of shocked me. 


 

https://tickets.fandango.com/mobileexpress/seatselection?row_count=451736316&mid=234178&chainCode=CNMK&sdate=2024-06-13+16%3A15&tid=aasus&route=map-seat-map


A correction on the total tickets. I have tracked 4 theaters. Out of all of them, there is at least 774 tickets sold out of 1000+ seats (don’t know the exact number and don’t have the time today to count them all).


But I will say this. It’s blown Garfield out of the water. I only saw about 200 tickets or so from the theaters I tracked. There is at least 3 sold out (or close to sold out) showings for Inside Out 2. Since this is my first time tracking I don’t have any comps, but it’s looking good for Inside Out 2. Of course this might just be fan surge and all, and I’ll have to look at Friday numbers to see if it’s super front loaded.

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On 5/19/2024 at 1:11 AM, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

153

23710

24051

341

1.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

11

 

T-26 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-26

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

Shaz 2

165.53

 

41

206

 

0/93

15337/15543

1.33%

 

1663

20.51%

 

5.63m

TLM

50.82

 

59

671

 

0/154

21323/21994

3.05%

 

6561

5.20%

 

5.23m

Barbie

39.06

 

65

873

 

0/96

11753/12626

6.91%

 

12077

2.82%

 

8.83m

Wonka

307.21

 

12

111

 

0/112

19176/19287

0.58%

 

1975

17.27%

 

10.75m

Aqua 2

157.87

 

6

216

 

0/78

13741/13957

1.55%

 

2629

12.97%

 

7.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       87/10075  [0.86% sold]
Matinee:    34/2674  [1.27% | 9.97% of all tickets sold]
3D:            18/3852   [0.47% | 5.28% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        144/9686   [1.49% | 42.23% of all tickets sold]

 

=======

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

But I repeat myself.

 

FWIW, there were about six or so solitary Regal seats over a couple of theaters which went bye-bye (Regal will "hold" a seat when someone is looking at a showing and but hasn't actually paid for the seat yet and it can take a few minutes for the "hold" to disappear) so it very likely that the total last night was "only" 54 and tonight's 17.  But everything else was as expected with no errors in the seat maps.  So, I stand by my "¯\_(ツ)_/¯".

 

...

 

Maybe a bunch of people who were buying tickets for If (or even more likely were reminded about kids-friendly movies thanks to stories about If) bought tickets yesterday when they got their tickets for If?  Yeah, I gots nothing.  Random spikes are random.

 

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

153

23690

24051

361

1.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

20

 

T-25 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-25

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

Shaz 2

164.09

 

14

220

 

0/93

15323/15543

1.42%

 

1663

21.71%

 

5.58m

TLM

49.38

 

60

731

 

0/154

21263/21994

3.32%

 

6561

5.50%

 

5.09m

Barbie

38.28

 

70

943

 

0/96

11684/12627

7.47%

 

12077

2.99%

 

8.65m

Wonka

319.47

 

2

113

 

0/112

19174/19287

0.59%

 

1975

18.28%

 

11.18m

Aqua 2

155.60

 

16

232

 

0/78

13725/13957

1.66%

 

2629

13.73%

 

7.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       95/10075  [0.94% sold]
Matinee:     35/2674  [1.31% | 9.70% of all tickets sold]
3D:              19/3852  [0.49% | 5.26% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          155/9686  [1.60% | 42.94% of all tickets sold]

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****** PROGRAMMING NOTE ******

 

Ordinarily I might try to squeeze in a couple of Quick and Dirtys for Furiosa, as that looks to be high enough for a Q&D at least.  However, as many of us trackers have alluded to, Fandango is being a bit of an ass lately.

 

Now I've been testing out a workflow over the last three days with my Inside Out 2 track and so far, emphasis on SO FAR — knocks furiously on wood and then throws salt over shoulder for good measure — I've been able to avoid getting on Fandango's Shit List the last three nights. 

 

Won't go into detail here (it's a boring conversation anyway) except to note that while the changed workflow is adding a not-quite-insignificant amount of time to my overall track, it's not a deal breaker.

 

What I *AM* worried about is how Fandango is going to react to me doing two full tracks back-to-back as I add DP3 to the mix tomorrow.  Hopefully the way I am spacing things out, it won't matter.  But it might.

 

But doing *three full tracks* back-to-back-to-back might be tempting fate too much.  Plus, you know, the actual amount of time to check out 450 - 500 showtimes (haven't seen the local screen count for Furiosa, but I presume it's in the 100-150 range).

 

Now there is a small chance I might be able to squeeze it in after I do IO2 and DP3.  Not so much "no promises though", but more like "if y'alls are really lucky."

 

Anyway, just consider this a Heads Up about my tracking schedule the next few days.

 

(if DP3 wasn't coming out tomorrow, I'd almost certainly commit to a Q&D — but, well, here's one of the downsides to a 65+ day pre-sale: it potentially pushes other tracks to the side)

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

From earlier in the day

 

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews - 10152/600702 196062.54 3058 shows

Friday - 8472/1004575 151032.58 5143 shows

 

Just chugging along at this point. 

Did a bit of quick math in following some comparisons for IO2 using your earlier MTC1 data. 
 

Elemental MTC1  (T-25)

Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219

Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125

 

Wish (T-27)

Early Shows(11-18) - 446/22116 4661.36 188 shows

Previews(11/21) - 3945/212538 59858.67 1305 shows

Wednesday(11/22) - 3273/398204 44992.33 2451 shows

 

Mermaid MTC1 T-22

Wed - 7913/34986 173283.51 153 shows

Previews - 24206/904581 429233.46 5507 shows

Friday - 19653/1027026 332296.41 5662 shows

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 T-20

Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040

Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002

 

 

For Thursday previews:

8.52m Previews if IO2 follows Elemental

8.29m previews if IO2 follows KFP4

5.32m Previews if IO2 follows Wish with EA

4.63m Previews if IO2 follows Wish minus EA

3.96m Previews if IO2 follows TLM minus EA

3.25m previews if IO2 follows TLM with EA

 

5.66m preview average

 

True Friday:

12.07m Friday if IO2 follows TLM 

15.01m Friday if IO2 follows Wish

30m Friday if IO2 follows KFP4

31.7m Friday if IO2 follows Elemental

 

22.2m Friday average

 

Not a fan of the preview average especially when Disney has underperformed at MTC2 so it’s not within in history to rely on it overperforming as it did for KFP4 and IF but really like the True Friday although it is very inconsistent as I am not sure if IO2 would jump that high from the Thursday average. However, there’s a lot of variables.
 

1. TLM should probably skew more towards young adults than families by nature which should manipulate ATP higher.

2. IO2 should and does have a higher ATP than either Wish, KFP4 or Elemental due to have total PLF control and presumably skews a bit older.

3. Wish was on Discount Tuesday so that should muddy up the comparisons.

4. The comparisons apart from Elemental are either days before or days behind.

5. Both Wish and KFP4 opened outside the summer season so internal multiplier will be different (especially with Wish’s five day) due to how summer and fall have entirely different natures in walkups which leaves just TLM/Elemental as viable comparisons.

 

In short, it could be both useful to compare but also not enough to compare due to demographical concerns and ATP but what it does show (if I’m getting this right as I really am not good at reading ATP) that IO2 should at least open above 65m?

Edited by YM!
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29 minutes ago, YM! said:

Did a bit of quick math in following some comparisons for IO2 using your earlier MTC1 data. 
 

Elemental MTC1  (T-25)

Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219

Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125

 

Wish (T-27)

Early Shows(11-18) - 446/22116 4661.36 188 shows

Previews(11/21) - 3945/212538 59858.67 1305 shows

Wednesday(11/22) - 3273/398204 44992.33 2451 shows

 

Mermaid MTC1 T-22

Wed - 7913/34986 173283.51 153 shows

Previews - 24206/904581 429233.46 5507 shows

Friday - 19653/1027026 332296.41 5662 shows

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 T-20

Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040

Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002

 

 

For Thursday previews:

8.52m Previews if IO2 follows Elemental

8.29m previews if IO2 follows KFP4

5.32m Previews if IO2 follows Wish with EA

4.63m Previews if IO2 follows Wish minus EA

3.96m Previews if IO2 follows TLM minus EA

3.25m previews if IO2 follows TLM with EA

 

5.66m preview average

 

True Friday:

12.07m Friday if IO2 follows TLM 

15.01m Friday if IO2 follows Wish

30m Friday if IO2 follows KFP4

31.7m Friday if IO2 follows Elemental

 

22.2m Friday average

 

Not a fan of the preview average especially when Disney has underperformed at MTC2 so it’s not within in history to rely on it overperforming as it did for KFP4 and IF but really like the True Friday although it is very inconsistent as I am not sure if IO2 would jump that high from the Thursday average. However, there’s a lot of variables.
 

1. TLM should probably skew more towards young adults than families by nature which should manipulate ATP higher.

2. IO2 should and does have a higher ATP than either Wish, KFP4 or Elemental due to have total PLF control and presumably skews a bit older.

3. Wish was on Discount Tuesday so that should muddy up the comparisons.

4. The comparisons apart from Elemental are either days before or days behind.

5. Both Wish and KFP4 opened outside the summer season so internal multiplier will be different (especially with Wish’s five day) due to how summer and fall have entirely different natures in walkups which leaves just TLM/Elemental as viable comparisons.

 

In short, it could be both useful to compare but also not enough to compare due to demographical concerns and ATP but what it does show (if I’m getting this right as I really am not good at reading ATP) that IO2 should at least open above 65m?

I think KP4 is the best comp for IO2 for me in comparaison of all comp

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Deadpool and Wolverine has been up for sale on the Canadian East coast, presumably from 9:00 local time. I did a sweep of all showtimes on MTC4, but there's been zero sales so far. 

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Posted (edited)

Furiosa, T-4 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 124

New Sales: 13

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 10/4

Early Evening: 74/9

Late Evening: 40/9

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 33/6

IMAX: 77/6

VIP: 11/5

4DX: 3/2

Regular: 0/3

 

Comps

0.153x Dune 2 for $1.5M

1.107x KOTPOTA for $5.5M

0.423x HG:BoSS for $2.4M

 

Average: $3.2M

 

Slipped slightly. Nothing too eventful. But we're still in holiday weekend more in Canada right now. Tomorrow might see a better bump.

Edited by vafrow
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