The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Liiviig 1998]

Had at 25-30M previews. Let's see where it goes at 24 hrs. More open to 200  but stil think 175-180m. Need 35m previews  to put  me on 200 train.

[TheFlatLannister]

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-66

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
208	3782	40601	9.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 12:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

(1.008x) of GOTG 3 $17.64M

(1.661x) of ATSV $28.82M

(2.336x) of Marvels $15.42M

(4.408x) of Dune 2 $40.99M

Comps average: $25.71M

 

Deadpool 3 has passed GOTG3, ATSV, Dune 2 (First 24 hours) in about 3 hours

I think we can put the under $100M OW discussion to bed 

 

To the shock of no one, this is blowing up. First 24 hours update should have average comps near $35M

Edited May 20 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews - 65676/1211640 1294901.38 7419 shows

 

Its really good start. It should finish the day ahead of Ant 3 I think. Sales will taper off after fanboy rush. Let me see where things are end of the day. 

 

Edit: this does not have fan shows which seem to be one PLF show at 3PM. I will add that to my next update. Should not make a huge difference at this scale. 

Edited May 20 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-66

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
208	3782	40601	9.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 12:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First 24 hours

(1.008x) of GOTG 3 $17.64M

(1.661x) of ATSV $28.82M

(2.336x) of Marvels $15.42M

(4.408x) of Dune 2 $40.99M

Comps average: $25.71M

 

Deadpool 3 has passed GOTG3, ATSV, Dune 2 (First 24 hours) in about 3 hours

I think we can put the under $100M OW discussion to bed 

 

To the shock of no one, this is blowing up. First 24 hours update should have average comps near $35M

I think minus Guardians, all other comps are irrelevant. MCU is its own beast. Even Spiderverse is a stretch. You probably dont have comps with Ant 3 or before. But over time period Guardians should provide great comps. 

 

I can say for sure, its no where in the ballpark of Dr Strange which did 36m previews. 

[keysersoze123]

59 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It’s done.

How about 2022 or Ant 3 comps?

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How about 2022 or Ant 3 comps?

Will mostly be above BP2 and below Thor 4.

 

3.6k so far. BP2 final was 4.6k.

[Legion Again]

Plenty of time for things to continue rolling in but basically looking like start will be >AM, <Thor, nearish BP. Using formulas for NWH-BP2 era that would suggest 30Mish, if you want to account for PS distance/length and for brand issues those both probably pull projection up. Basically expecting mid 30s, same as before sales start, for 170ish open

 

Edit: Just for sake of expectations setting, high 20s also plausible if those factors end up not having too much impact or reception on weaker side. 150-180 maybe for now

Edited May 20 by Legion Again

[kayumanggi]

[SpiderByte]

Surprised Twisters is so high

[Eric Lasagna]

Just now, SpiderByte said:

Surprised Twisters is so high

Cyclones go whoosh

[AniNate]

Why Fandango polls continue to be seen as some kind of authority eludes me but I'd only be somewhat surprised by it being higher than Furiosa right now. Granted it has had a pretty robust marketing campaign.

[Speedorito]

Yeah I’m sure Bad Boys 4, IO2, and DM4 will outgross most of these.

[kayumanggi]

36 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Why Fandango polls continue to be seen as some kind of authority eludes me but I'd only be somewhat surprised by it being higher than Furiosa right now. Granted it has had a pretty robust marketing campaign.

 

It's just a poll. Who sees it as some kind of authority?

[AniNate]

26 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

It's just a poll. Who sees it as some kind of authority?

 

 

It's more a promotional thing than an actual buzz/tracking thing. Not really useful information in regards to this thread. Maybe if they were more transparent about their methodology and actual data and didn't just rank them without any metrics. 

 

 

Edited May 20 by AniNate

[keysersoze123]

Deadpool & Wolverine Fan Shows - 18478/30586 317306.42 163 shows.

 

 

That itself is yuge. I will combine both going forward. I think adding both it should be between Wakanda and Thor 4 for now. Terrific OD for sure. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think minus Guardians, all other comps are irrelevant. MCU is its own beast. Even Spiderverse is a stretch. You probably dont have comps with Ant 3 or before. But over time period Guardians should provide great comps. 

 

I can say for sure, its no where in the ballpark of Dr Strange which did 36m previews. 

 

Agreed - everyone should be comping Disney to Disney for supers.  No other franchise can really be comped to them.  AKA - you can't take a Sony or DC super or a regular blockbuster to compare - it just doesn't (at least not yet)...

[kayumanggi]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

 

It's more a promotional thing than an actual buzz/tracking thing. Not really useful information in regards to this thread. Maybe if they were more transparent about their methodology and actual data. 

 

 

 

Understanding which movies are most anticipated can gives us a glimpse on audience interest and the potential blockbusters of summer. The poll is specifically for IMAX releases which have a certain dedicated audience who values this kind of format and experience. It is obviously not an indicator of box office success. It just shows which movies the audience are highly-anticipating. You can simply ignore the data if you think it's useless and not be salty about it. My god. I didn't know we have a forum police here.

[Grand Cine]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews - 65676/1211640 1294901.38 7419 shows

 

Its really good start. It should finish the day ahead of Ant 3 I think. Sales will taper off after fanboy rush. Let me see where things are end of the day. 

 

Edit: this does not have fan shows which seem to be one PLF show at 3PM. I will add that to my next update. Should not make a huge difference at this scale. 

I think 80-85K after 1 day already better than Guardians 3 but he has a terrible OD. With the fact that Marvel Films finished around 17M with around 300K at MTC1 , i think already near 3,5M collected in 4 hours which is really good for a movie which come in 2 Months

[Tinalera]

6 hours ago, vafrow said:

Deadpool and Wolverine has been up for sale on the Canadian East coast, presumably from 9:00 local time. I did a sweep of all showtimes on MTC4, but there's been zero sales so far. 

Oh its deadpool wolvie time is it?

 

Usually takes a day or so for word to filter out with MTC4 stuff-I imagine it wont be for very long lol

 

 

[vafrow]

13 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Oh its deadpool wolvie time is it?

 

Usually takes a day or so for word to filter out with MTC4 stuff-I imagine it wont be for very long lol

 

I'm not sure what happened for the East coast this morning, but sales seemed to have rebounded. A little hit and miss in different markets, but that's what I'd assume for that region. There's some small communities.

 

I'm not sure why it took so long for sales to hit when southern Ontario was hot off the mark. People may have assumed 9:00 am eastern time.