The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Furiosa, T-3 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 154

New Sales: 30

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 10/4

Early Evening: 100/9

Late Evening: 44/9

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 43/6

IMAX: 93/6

VIP: 13/5

4DX: 5/2

Regular: 0/3

 

Comps

0.165x Dune 2 for $1.7M

1.149x KOTPOTA for $5.7M

0.477x HG:BoSS for $2.7M

 

Average: $3.4M

 

Decent growth, and slight bump up. Hopefully that continues.

 

 

Furiosa, T-2 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 192

New Sales: 38

Growth: 25%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 13/4

Early Evening: 124/9

Late Evening: 55/9

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 58/6

IMAX: 112/6

VIP: 17/5

4DX: 5/2

Regular: 0/3

 

Comps

0.180x Dune 2 for $1.8M

1.143x KOTPOTA for $5.7M

0.526x HG:BoSS for $3.0M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

I'd say this isn't bad for a property that should be more front loaded. I still think the POTA comp is probably the best, and it's looking strong.

[el sid]

This is from Monday = 2 days ago. 

 

Furiosa, counted on Monday for Thursday had 2.053 sold tickets in 7 theaters. Best sales (by far) in California followed by Miami (the AMC Sunset Place). 

 

Comps (all four movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Fall Guy (2.35M from previews) had 669 sold tickets = 7.2M. 

CW (2.6M) had 826 = 6.45M. 

BT (4.6M) had 879 = 10.75. 

And Uncharted (3.7M) had 879 = 10.75M. 

Average: 8.3M. 

 

So on Monday it was still doing really fine in my theaters but be prepared that this number will go down because for the comparison films with less than 1k tickets it was way easier to have good jumps percentage-wise. Still, e.g. my Apes and GxK comps can't go below 5M because Furiosa IS already in front (Apes's final presales number was 1.657 and GxK's 2.015). Overall I doubt that Furiosa's average numbers will be below 5M in my theaters tomorrow, its presales are already too high for that. But let's see if I see the same as other members report, that it's losing speed.

 

I add some other comps which I didn't include because the films were not counted on the same day etc...

GxK (9.2M) had on Tuesday for Thursday 1.437 sold tickets

and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes had also on Tuesday for Thursday 1.229. 

Dune 2 (12M from Thursday and EA) had on Monday for Thursday 2.929 sold tickets but I don't remember how much it did on true Thursday and how much is from EA shows so I couldn't calculate the comparison number. Does anybody remember, please?

JW 4 (8.9M) had on Monday for Thursday 2.049 sold tickets 

and The Equalizer 3 (3.8M) had 431 sold tickets. But I think both series and main actors have their own fans.

 

Will count Furiosa tomorrow again, today I look at Garfield's sales. I think it's still too early to panic because IF had also very muted sales and the acceleration did not start until early Thursday, at least in my theaters. 

 

Edited May 22 by el sid

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/21/2024 at 1:28 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-66 Days

 

Previews - 5442/79922 (304 showings) $83K

 

Comps

1.84x GoTG3 first day - $32M

1.18x Black Panther 2 first day - $33.6M

0.88x Thor 4 first day - $25.5M

 

3.90x Black Widow first day - $55M (adj for ATP & Canada)

5.32x Eternals first day - $55M (adj for ATP)

 

Deadpool & Woleverine MiniTC2 T-65 Days

 

Previews -  6100/83891 (318 showings) $92K

 

Comps

1.80x GoTG3 two days - $31.5M

1.20x Black Panther 2 two days - $34.3M

0.87x Thor 4 two days - $25.5M

[vafrow]

I took a look at how Hit Man is doing. For Thursday previews, only two of the five theatres are playing it for previews (an additional is picking it up starting Friday), with only two tickets sold across the four showtimes.

 

Taking a wider 50km radius, that captures most of the Greater Toronto Area gets 35 total tickets sold, with most being in the downtown locations (which also happens to be theatres where it probably played during TIFF).

 

It's playing in 11 theatres (out of 26), with 26 showtimes.

 

Hard to put that into too much context. It's not getting any marketing that I can see and really playing to cinephiles that have heard the word of mouth (hence the TIFF theatres doing better).

[TwoMisfits]

June TMobile $5 Atom movie - Bad Boys 4.

 

Now this one could help the movie go huge, like last year's Spiderverse...

 

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

June TMobile $5 Atom movie - Bad Boys 4.

 

Now this one could help the movie go huge, like last year's Spiderverse...

 

I’m curious how much does Atom boost ticket sales. Feel like a lot of time, the movies were on track to overperform or reach them anyways like SpiderVerse. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

I’m curious how much does Atom boost ticket sales. Feel like a lot of time, the movies were on track to overperform or reach them anyways like SpiderVerse. 

 

Beekeeper, Marley, Ghostbusters, and Strangers Chap 1 were this year's choices.

 

Beekeeper and Marley (and even Strangers Chap 1) were all helped...although I think last year, Creed 3, Wick 4, and Spidey got the most help.

 

As I've said, aging male-skewing franchises tend to get the biggest bump from this deal...when folks are on the fence, but know what they are getting...

 

Female skewing non-sequel ones (like last year's Margaret) tend to get zero help.  Like you have to have a baseline interest to get people willing to pay anything, b/c these still are $5...

 

PS - And the other effect of the deal - other movies releasing around the $5 hits sometimes get hurt...if you're GA and you decided to buy the deal, maybe that's all the movie going you need that month...

Edited May 22 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

Twisters having Early Access shows on July 17.

 

Twisters: Early Access Screenings at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

[charlie Jatinder]

Furiosa MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Previews - 1247/39583 (154 showings)

 

Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $3M

Apes - $3.5M

Hunger Games: BOSS - $2.2M

 

Friday - 1380/72829 (287 showings)

 

Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $6.5M

Apes - $7M

Hunger Games: BOSS - $4.25M

 

Will underindex here but MEH sales. No improvement either with comps dropping.

[charlie Jatinder]

Garfield MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Thursday - 497/33803 (156 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $1.9M

IF - $2.2M

 

Friday - 664/68075 (300 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $4M

IF - $5.4M

 

Decent to Okay THU sales, Poor FRI sales.

[TheFlatLannister]

11 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

So what OW are we forecasting based on this? Assuming it's GOTG 3 reception

 $150M locked imo. 
 

Don’t really see under $30M for previews and a 6x multi gets it to $180M OW 

 

with GOTG 3 early reception I think $200M becomes a real discussion 

Edited May 22 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

On 5/20/2024 at 10:27 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews OD sales - 116273/1243211 2207789.99 7590 shows

 

It was at just under 101K at around 215PM and so excellent growth even post that. It did finish ahead of Wakanda and around 20K below Thor 4. Of course it has the longer cycle. Let us see how things go. FYI this includes fan shows which was not there in my initial update. That alone sold 18K+ just in initial check around noon PST. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews - 127648/1253657 2412433.88 7642 shows

 

I could not get it to run yesterday night and so just ran it this morning. Nothing out of ordinary in day 2 pace. Let us see where things are next week. 

[keysersoze123]

Yesterday after eons I got data for MTC2 previews. It took the whole day to get it 🙂

 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC2 previews - 44320/482651 672726.59 3511 shows

 

MTC2 early sales tend to way weaker for all movies. The disparity for big movies is even higher. 

[YM!]

41 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 $150M locked imo. 
 

Don’t really see under $30M for previews and a 6x multi gets it to $180M OW 

 

with GOTG 3 early reception I think $200M becomes a real discussion 

What happens if it gets Mario reception (mixed reviews but strong audience reception) which I can because well its Shawn Levy.

[charlie Jatinder]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews - 127648/1253657 2412433.88 7642 shows

 

I could not get it to run yesterday night and so just ran it this morning. Nothing out of ordinary in day 2 pace. Let us see where things are next week. 

These are incredible. Black Panther did 11K in next 2 days while Thor 4 did it on T-23rd day.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, YM! said:

What happens if it gets Mario reception (mixed reviews but strong audience reception) which I can because well its Shawn Levy.

its not going to be a classic with Levy on the helm. I have not known him to deliver a classic yet. Most of his movies are rotten. That said for MCU you dont need the great director touch. Feige is the one who is on the helm here 🙂 

 

Looking at Friday sales, its IM will be closer to Thor than Wakanda. So we can do the projections based on how the previews will go. However Its really early. Let us wait until we have T-x comps. Probably will have to wait until July to get credible comps. 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

These are incredible. Black Panther did 11K in next 2 days while Thor 4 did it on T-23rd day.

Thor did 12K in its Day 2. Dont remember what BP2 did. I have to go back and see. 1st few days of PS is all about fanboys and so T-x does not matter. By this friday it will be in steady state mode. With this long a cycle that would be at very low levels. 

[thajdikt]

24 minutes ago, YM! said:

What happens if it gets Mario reception (mixed reviews but strong audience reception) which I can because well its Shawn Levy.

That won’t happen. That doesn’t happen with MCU movies. The reception with audiences and critics is pretty much aligned every time. At worst there is a small disparity but something like Mario won’t happen.
 

Also a lot of people want to highlight Levy work as a potential issue which is completely fair but I will point that his work on Stranger Things especially season 4 isn’t nothing short of excellent. So he has it in him and hopefully with Feige he managed to make something good.

[misterpepp]

Here’s a long window:

 

The Forge on sale May 28

[Spidey Freak]

Levy is a Jon Watts. Incapable of affecting an MCU movie's quality in any discernible way. The script and star chemistry will be doing all the heavy lifting.