The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Are they really good comps? Those movies came out when Thursday previews were at 7PM not 2PM

Yes.

 

Depends on how you use and read data.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Denver Thursday

2805(+399)/24018 in 9 theaters

 

0.933	Adjusted Thor L&T Day 2	27.06M
0.630	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Day 2	22.69M

Deadpool & Wolverine Denver Thursday

2896(+91)/24018 in 9 theaters

 

 

0.902	Adjusted Thor L&T Day 3	26.16M
0.606	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	21.80M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Alamo Drafthouse

T-65 Thursday

259 Showings

9797

+1330

37323

ATP:

17.10

1.136	Thor L&T Day 2	32.95M
0.806	Doctor Strange MoM Day 2	29.03M

 

T-66 Friday

399 Showings

5887

+925

57567

ATP:

16.96

0.987	Thor L&T Day 2	40.01M
0.665	Doctor Strange MoM Day 2	36.37M

 

T-67 Saturday

403 Showings

5344

+973

58124

ATP:

15.87

1.034	Thor L&T Day 2	43.53M
0.633	Doctor Strange MoM Day 2	36.59M

 

T-68 Sunday

396 Showings

1711

+392

57395

ATP:

15.74

0.684	Thor L&T Day 2	22.22M
0.556	Doctor Strange MoM Day 2	21.62M

Deadpool & Wolverine Alamo Drafthouse

T-64 Thursday

262 Showings

10426

+629

37698

ATP:

17.07

1.126	Thor L&T Day 3	32.66M
0.817	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	29.42M

 

T-65 Friday

400 Showings

6481

+594

57675

ATP:

16.89

0.993	Thor L&T Day 3	40.29M
0.675	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	36.94M

 

T-66 Saturday

402 Showings

5990

+646

57982

ATP:

15.86

1.026	Thor L&T Day 3	43.19M
0.644	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	37.23M

 

T-67 Sunday

396 Showings

1979

+268

57395

ATP:

15.75

0.714	Thor L&T Day 3	23.21M
0.553	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	21.49M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Emagine Entertainment

T-65 Thursday

205 Showings

2876

+372

31443

 

T-66 Friday

331 Showings

1143

+187

49636

 

T-67 Saturday

327 Showings

636

+156

49752

 

T-68 Sunday

314 Showings

194

+37

48358

Deadpool & Wolverine Emagine Entertainment

T-64 Thursday

205 Showings

3053

+177

30441

 

T-65 Friday

331 Showings

1280

+137

49640

 

T-66 Saturday

327 Showings

701

+65

49755

 

T-67 Sunday

314 Showings

222

+28

48360

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's a combination of both - definitely bad product this month, and plenty of my friends have expressed their own disinterest, but it used to be that there was a bare minimum number of regular theater goers that you would have a floor for the total box office each weekend, with higher floors depending on season and other stuff. 

Yeah been thinking that. That's the Covid affect. Those people are lost and maybe never coming back except for the occasional water cooler movie like DP and W or some of the other big hits like No Way Home, TG Maverick, Avatar, Mario Barbie ect. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos don't kill me.

Just for shits and giggle, can you throw in TRoS and Captain Marvel for DP3. 

Just for trend's sake, no serious comps.

 

 

==========

 

You know how little I think these are worth nowadays, but a couple of provisos on top of that.

 

Captain Marvel's "first day" was actually about 30 hours of sales as I pushed the first few hours into the next day, so the timing is off a bit.

 

Meanwhile TROS's "first day" was actually its first five hours, because of how silly-frontloaded it was.

 

Now by D3 (today), D4 (tomorrow) it's/it'll probably has/have smoothed out a little; but likely still seeing some ripple affects of different sampling methodologies that wouldn't fully smooth out until around D7, D8, or D9.

 

If I have time... *MAYBE*.  Absolutely no promises.  Plus, you know, having very questionable utility.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

 

==========

 

You know how little I think these are worth nowadays, but a couple of provisos on top of that.

 

Captain Marvel's "first day" was actually about 30 hours of sales as I pushed the first few hours into the next day, so the timing is off a bit.

 

Meanwhile TROS's "first day" was actually its first five hours, because of how silly-frontloaded it was.

 

Now by D3 (today), D4 (tomorrow) it's/it'll probably has/have smoothed out a little; but likely still seeing some ripple affects of different sampling methodologies that wouldn't fully smooth out until around D7, D8, or D9.

 

If I have time... *MAYBE*.  Absolutely no promises.  Plus, you know, having very questionable utility.

 

I basically wanted to see the behaviour during bottom of U-curve as we didn't have long pre-sales film for a while. 

Anyways, check spoiler box in original post. I posted their data.

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah been thinking that. That's the Covid affect. Those people are lost and maybe never coming back except for the occasional water cooler movie like DP and W or some of the other big hits like No Way Home, TG Maverick, Avatar, Mario Barbie ect. 

Just as long as wide releases don't dip below 100 a year or we have a high volume of theater closures, we should at least be able to plateau around $9 billion a year if everyone else stays locked in to the habit.

[ThomasNicole]

Sad to see that Furiosa will be another one of dozen examples this year with absolutely depressing results. Sometimes is easy to just say the movies are bad, but this year even somewhat good movies are being completely ignored for many reasons. 4.5M previews would probably be enough for +35M 3-day but at this point i´m not even buying that, comps are dropping real fast. 

 

Even more depressing seeing that once again, it´ll be up to MCU to come and save the day. Nothing against the movie but this is not sustainable and i really hope the industry finds a way to get the audiences back in theaters without keep needing 10 superhero movies every year to see if something explodes. 

 

Anyway, kinda mindblowing results for Deadpool, assuming the movie delivers there´s really potential for 200M OW here based on data so far, that would be like water in this super dry year, theaters really need this.

 

Edited May 23 by ThomasNicole

[Rorschach]

On 5/22/2024 at 12:06 AM, Rorschach said:

Furiosa - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 IMAX showings: 47/1,164

2 XD showings: 8/476

6 2D showings: 12/606

Total: 67/2,246 (3% sold) [+11]

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.24 mil

 

Friday:

4 IMAX showings: 27/1,552

4 XD showings: 36/952

8 2D showings: 22/808

Total: 85/3,312 (2.6% sold) [+25]

 

Comps:

Apes: $10.67 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 152/5,558 (2.7% sold) [+36]

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $15.4 mil

 

Holding up okay against the Apes comps. All three projected totals crept up just a bit from yesterday. Crossing my fingers for a big boost tomorrow, though.

 

 

Garfield - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

1 3D showing: 1/78

10 2D showings: 31/925
Total: 32/1,003 (3.2% sold) [+3]

 

Comp:

IF: $1.14 mil

 

Friday:

2 3D showings: 14/156

13 2D showings: 26/1,274

Total: 40/1,430 (2.8% sold) [+8]

 

Comp:

IF: $5.26 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 72/2,433 (2.5% sold) [+11]

 

Comp:

IF: $6.53 mil

 

Bleh.

Furiosa - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 IMAX showings: 58/1,164

2 XD showings: 10/476

6 2D showings: 21/606

Total: 89/2,246 (3% sold) [+22]

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.41 mil

 

Friday:

4 IMAX showings: 32/1,552

4 XD showings: 44/952

8 2D showings: 24/808

Total: 100/3,312 (2.6% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

Apes: $9.21 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 189/5,558 (2.7% sold) [+37]

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $14.4 mil

 

Glad to see Thursday is still holding strong. Unfortunately, Friday collapsed a little bit against Apes, which enjoyed a huge bump the Wednesday before. A tad concerning, but we'll just see how tomorrow goes...

 

Garfield - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

1 3D showing: 1/78

10 2D showings: 39/925
Total: 40/1,003 (4% sold) [+8]

 

Comp:

IF: $1.27 mil

 

Friday:

2 3D showings: 14/156

13 2D showings: 36/1,274

Total: 50/1,430 (3.5% sold) [+10]

 

Comp:

IF: $3.71 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 90/2,433 (2.5% sold) [+18]

 

Comp:

IF: $5.45 mil

 

[Eric is Anxious]

I think Deadpool (and I guess Inside Out?) have taken us back to the evils of Mickey’s Law. For non-Disney movies, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Things were already bad in our nostalgic toy commercial era. I hate that our culture has regressed itself yet again. It ain’t fun.

[Alexander]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's a combination of both - definitely bad product this month, and plenty of my friends have expressed their own disinterest, but it used to be that there was a bare minimum number of regular theater goers that you would have a floor for the total box office each weekend, with higher floors depending on season and other stuff. 

I just think a huge % of people prefer to stay home now. At least I see this trend in my country. So then they don't really go to cinema much anymore or to play some sport or anything, it doesn't really make any difference. They just don't want to go outside. And then obviously doesn't help that most of current movies don't look that exciting to people outside of certain bubbles these movies target.

[Rorschach]

9 minutes ago, Eric Furiosa said:

I think Deadpool (and I guess Inside Out?) have taken us back to the evils of Mickey’s Law. For non-Disney movies, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Things were already bad in our nostalgic toy commercial era. I hate that our culture has regressed itself yet again. It ain’t fun.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23644	24051	407	1.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

19

 

 

T-23 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	188.43		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		3951	10.30%		11.78m
Shaz 2	154.75		8	263		0/93	15277/15540	1.69%		1663	24.47%		5.26m
TLM	47.94		59	849		0/154	21799/22648	3.75%		6561	6.20%		4.94m
Barbie	37.62		82	1082		0/96	11550/12632	8.57%		12077	3.37%		8.50m
Wonka	310.69		15	131		0/112	19153/19284	0.68%		1975	20.61%		10.87m
Aqua 2	150.18		19	271		0/78	13689/13960	1.94%		2629	15.48%		6.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     99/10075  [0.98% sold]
Matinee:    41/2674  [1.53% | 10.07% of all tickets sold]
3D:            25/3852  [0.65% | 6.14% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        172/9686  [1.78% | 42.26% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23622	24051	429	1.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

22

 

T-22 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	171.60		34	250		0/73	11015/11265	2.22%		3951	10.86%		10.73m
Shaz 2	146.42		30	293		0/93	15247/15540	1.89%		1663	25.80%		4.98m
TLM	47.04		63	912		0/154	21736/22648	4.03%		6561	6.54%		4.85m
Barbie	36.64		89	1171		0/96	11461/12632	9.27%		12077	3.55%		8.28m
Wonka	310.87		7	138		0/112	19146/19284	0.72%		1975	21.72%		10.88m
Aqua 2	148.96		17	288		0/78	13672/13960	2.06%		2629	16.32%		6.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     104/10075  [1.03% sold]
Matinee:    41/2674  [1.53% | 9.56% of all tickets sold]
3D:            29/3852  [0.75% | 6.76% of all tickets sold]
PLF:    188/9686  [1.94% | 43.82% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-65 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	219	28295	31587	3292	10.42%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	118
Total Seats Sold Today	447

 

Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.47		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	15.59%		16.01m
L&T	69.69		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	19.41%		20.21m
BP2	88.42		469	3723		0/292	32828/36551	10.19%		16800	19.60%		24.76m
AM3	117.53		782	2801		0/231	29564/32365	8.65%		10475	31.43%		20.57m
GOTG3	152.62		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	30.62%		26.71m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        679/12927  [5.25% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED DUE TO FANDANGO ORNERINESS

3D:              285/6802  [4.19% | 8.66% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          1904/11001  [17.31% | 57.84% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Pretty standard Day 2, really.  Best sign, I think, is it nearly matching BP2 (that also had a long pre-sale window starting at T-38).  Wouldn't read much of anything into the AM3 D2 number, as that had a very unusual ticket release pattern.  AM3's D1 started in the late afternoon/early evening my time, which caused something of a domino effect over the next couple of days where the D2 and D3 were slightly stronger than would have normally been.

 

Will go ahead and keep updating daily for a few days before deciding whether or not I'm going to switch over to bi-weekly reports for a while.  All comps will be disappearing in a few days, regardless, so we'd be flying blind at that time anyway.  As always, play it by ear.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-64 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	219	28079	31587	3508	11.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

216

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.85		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	16.61%		16.15m
L&T	69.33		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	20.68%		20.11m
BP2	87.33		294	4017		0/292	32534/36551	10.99%		16800	20.88%		24.45m
AM3	114.72		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	33.49%		20.08m
GOTG3	149.21		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	32.63%		26.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:       715/12927  [5.53% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED DUE TO FANDANGO ORNERINESS
3D:            305/6802  [4.48% | 8.69% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2021/11001  [18.37% | 57.61% of all tickets sold]

 

 

=====

 

MCU/SW films tend to have a bit longer of a slope-down on the decent of the "u-curve" so I think I'll keep posting "Day x" comps for at least a couple more days, especially for the MCU films with longer pre-sale windows.  Somewhere around D5/D6 or so, maybe.  Once I do switch over, I won't have any comps for quite a while, so I'll probably switch to providing percentage of final sold information against various MCU films.

 

As for CM and TROS? 

 

*makes a deeeeeeeeeeeep sigh*

 

DP3 = 0.31508x TROS at the same sources of tracking after three days of sales (D1 = 6 hours of sales) [12.6m]

DP3 = 1.65677x CM at the same sources of tracking after three days of sales (D1 = 30 hours of sales) [34.3m]

@charlie Jatinder

 

[Porthos]

On 5/22/2024 at 12:58 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Sacramento Report [T-2]

918/19697 (4.66% sold) [+158 tickets] 148 showings.

 

0.36691x RotB at T-2          [3.23m]
0.58360x BOSS at T-2        [3.36m]
0.89736x Wonka at T-2      [3.14m]
0.76309x GBFE at T-2        [3.59m]
0.39948x GxK at T-2          [3.99m]
1.41886x Fall Guy at T-2     [4.47m]
0.48443x KoPotA at T-2     [3.20m]

 

====

 

At least the GxK and Fall Guy comps went (slightly) up?  Yay?

 

Meh.

 

Quick and Dirty Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Sacramento Report [T-1]

1158/19170 (6.04% sold) [+240 tickets] 145 showings.

 

0.33741x RotB at T-1       [2.97m]
0.59021x BOSS at T-1     [3.39m]
0.91469x Wonka at T-1   [3.20m]
0.76537x GBFE at T-1     [3.60m]
0.35251x GxK at T-1       [3.53m]
1.10602x Fall Guy at T-1 [3.48m]
0.70826x KoPotA at T-1 [3.54m] [THURSDAY ONLY COMP DUE TO MISSING EA SALES]

 

=====

 

WHELP!  Never a good sign when showtimes start disappearing the night before release.  

(Only three, but still...)

 

Before noting anything else, RotB and Fall Guy both got boosted by EA, so keep that in mind. Still, none of the other comps improved all that much, so....

 

Yeah.  Sacto might just be under-performing.  But if not, 3.75m or so might be in the cards.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Anyways, check spoiler box in original post. I posted their data.

 

Not at the same sources of data though. 

 

U-curves will probably be broadly similar, but the day-to-day fluctuation will likely be disrupted somewhat due to differing sources of tracking data.

 

What I could do is post the equivalent seats sold of DP3 for both CM and TROS, as unfortunately they're different.

 

Unfortunately x2, one of the theaters I had partial information for CM (and then full info for TROS) is behaving radically differently post-renovation/relocation, with many more sales in 2023/24.

 

Still, I can grit the teeth and post DP3 (CM) equivalent and DP3 (TROS equivalent) as Seats Sold, including back-sourcing the D1, D2, and D3 numbers.

 

Edited May 23 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool & Woleverine MiniTC2 T-65 Days

 

Previews -  6100/83891 (318 showings) $92K

 

Comps

1.80x GoTG3 two days - $31.5M

1.20x Black Panther 2 two days - $34.3M

0.87x Thor 4 two days - $25.5M

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-64 Days

 

Previews - 6477/83891 (318 showings) $98K

 

Comps

1.73x GoTG3 two days - $30.3M

1.20x Black Panther 2 two days - $34.3M

0.86x Thor 4 two days - $25.5M

[charlie Jatinder]

17 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Furiosa MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Previews - 1247/39583 (154 showings)

 

Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $3M

Apes - $3.5M

Hunger Games: BOSS - $2.2M

 

Friday - 1380/72829 (287 showings)

 

Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $6.5M

Apes - $7M

Hunger Games: BOSS - $4.25M

 

Will underindex here but MEH sales. No improvement either with comps dropping.

Furiosa MiniTC2 T-1 Days

 

Previews - 1584/39583 (154 showings)

 

Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $2.7M

Apes - $2.6M

Hunger Games: BOSS - $2.2M

Dune 2 - $2.2M

Civil War - $4.1M

 

Friday - 1836/85318 (358 showings)

 

Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $6.4M

Apes - $6.8M

Hunger Games: BOSS - $4.1M

Dune 2 - $4.1M

Civil War - $8.4M

 

3-day pace Comps

Civil War - $6.3M

Fall Guy - $6M

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/22/2024 at 8:40 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Garfield MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Thursday - 497/33803 (156 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $1.9M

IF - $2.2M

 

Friday - 664/68075 (300 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $4M

IF - $5.4M

 

Decent to Okay THU sales, Poor FRI sales.

Garfield MiniTC2 T-1 Day

Thursday - 835/33939 (158 showings)
 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $2.04M

IF - $2.14M
 

Friday - 971/91498 (412 showings)
 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $4.2M

IF - $4.85M

Decent THU sales but FRI remains POOR.

Edited May 24 by charlie Jatinder