The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric S'ennui]

Moderation

 

Guys we're getting a little off-topic. Please focus on the numbers and tracking.

[TheFlatLannister]

35 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

when The fall guy felt like the flop of the summer before summer started to then If and Mad Max going to similar opening numbers with similar or even bigger budgets...but mad max i guess should be way bigger than Fall guy OS at least. 

Isn't mad max imploding OS? I saw a post on reddit about the France opening and it didn't seem good 

[Rorschach]

12 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Garfield - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

1 3D showing: 1/78

10 2D showings: 39/925
Total: 40/1,003 (4% sold) [+8]

 

Comp:

IF: $1.27 mil

Garfield - Thursday Afternoon Outlook (T-1 hour)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

1 3D showing: 1/78

10 2D showings: 43/925
Total: 44/1,003 (4.4% sold) [+4]

 

Comp:

IF: $856k

 

At this point, better hope for some big walk-up turnout. Will check back in a bit for Furiosa numbers.

[kayumanggi]

 

[vale9001]

52 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Isn't mad max imploding OS? I saw a post on reddit about the France opening and it didn't seem good 

Yeah but still better than fall guy. I think should make at least a double OS total than that.

Edited May 23 by vale9001

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
522	1513	97286	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

102

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.498x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $1.89M

Comps average: $1.89M

 

This is so bad. Sold 1/3 of what it did yesterday 

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
522	1933	97286	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

420

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.480x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $1.82M

Comps average: $1.82M

 

Based on trend, I'll take under $1.8M for Thursday and think previews will be reported around $2M with EA

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
560	3854	109578	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

142

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.250x) of Civil War $3.62M
(0.793x) of Planet Apes $3.97M

(0.475x) of Godzill and Kong $4.51M

Comps average: $4.03M

 

Just yikes. Not sure if this gets to $4M for Thursday 

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
563	5101	109903	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1247

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

COMPS

T-0

(1.187x) of Civil War $3.44M
(0.859x) of Planet Apes $4.29M

(0.449x) of Godzill and Kong $4.26M

Comps average: $4.00M

 

Thinking it just barely gets to $4M previews. Going with $4M +/- $0.2M

Pretty solid recovery all things considering. Let's see how walkups go this evening. 

Edited May 23 by TheFlatLannister

[Rorschach]

13 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Furiosa - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 IMAX showings: 58/1,164

2 XD showings: 10/476

6 2D showings: 21/606

Total: 89/2,246 (3% sold) [+22]

 

Comps:

Apes (w/o EA): $4.41 mil

Furiosa - Thursday Afternoon Outlook (T-1 hour)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 IMAX showings: 67/1,164

2 XD showings: 12/476

6 2D showings: 33/606

Total: 112/2,246 (5% sold) [+23]

 

Comp:

Apes (w/o EA): $3.97 mil

 

Not an amazing finish, but not horrible either. Still believe it can reach $4 mil, but given the pessimistic turn-around on this film in the past couple days, I'm really not so sure anymore.

Edited May 23 by Rorschach

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

Bad Boys 4

Early shows(6/5) - 493/9869 11396.51 46 shows

Previews - 11137/518704 209270.25 2557 shows

Friday - 8612/777438 154624.68 3849 shows

 

This will be a late bloomer. I am still expecting 50m+ OW. 

 

@charlie Jatinder

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bad Boys 4

Early shows(6/5) - 493/9869 11396.51 46 shows

Previews - 11137/518704 209270.25 2557 shows

Friday - 8612/777438 154624.68 3849 shows

 

This will be a late bloomer. I am still expecting 50m+ OW. 

 

@charlie Jatinder

I do imagine that some of the main demographics for this are more walkup based. Isn’t MTC2 Hispanic-heavy, how is it doing over there?

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, YM! said:

I do imagine that some of the main demographics for this are more walkup based. Isn’t MTC2 Hispanic-heavy, how is it doing over there?

I have not checked. Not easy to get data. Deadpool was an exception as it was worth jumping through the hoops to get it. That said I will take a look closer to release if it makes a splash. This wont be fan driven. Even the last one initially trailed Dr Do little in presales but amped up big time close to release. 

[TalismanRing]

NYC REGAL LOCAL

 

FURIOSA: 138/1526 (4pm)

 

COMPS (Rated R)
Bad Boys 3:  $3.57m
Dune 1: $3.95m
The Suicide Squad: $3.79m
Oppenheimer: $3.89m

 

COMPS (PG-13)
Black Widow: $3.66m
Marvels: $4.19m
Venom 2: $5.26m (the outlier-great walk-ups like the first)

 

I've been a lazy tracker so most of the comps are older which should push the avg up to $4-4.2m

 

GARFIELD  52/1028 (2pm)

 

Sonic 1:  $1.25m

Adams Family 2: $1.79m

Sonic 2:  $2.55m

Bobs Burgers: $1.44m

Encanto: $1.53m (Wed previews)

IF: $1.147m

Elemental: $2.5m

 

Elemental is the only opener deep in the summer and Sonic 2 was a sequel to a sizable hit - so probably outliers.  But then 3 others are known IPs and/or sequels and one was mid Holiday week.  So, clear as mud.  

 

Edited May 23 by TalismanRing

[CJohn]

Garfield about to pull a IF. I have still not given up on this weekend.

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 

05/23/24

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga - 120 tickets sold

The Garfield Movie - 64 tickets sold (with blocked back row seats not counted)

Sight - 39 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

0.33x of Dune: Part Two ($3.05M)

0.64x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($6.42M)

0.95x of Civil War ($2.76M)

1.50x of The Fall Guy ($3.52M)

AVERAGE: $3.94M

 

The Garfield Movie

0.61x of Kung Fu Panda 4 ($2.32M)

AVERAGE: $2.32M

 

Sight

0.89x of Unsung Hero ($417K)

1.08x of Cabrini ($542K)

AVERAGE: $480K

 

Having sorted out the Garfield seat shenanigans (thanks @abracadabra1998), overall picture in my market doesn't seem too bad for this weekend given where expectations here are. Furiosa comps came in all over the place (couldn't even include Apes since that comp was at $8.3M lol), but the power of averaging takes it to juuuust under $4M. And that's probably where WB will call it at, so I'm calling this at $3.9-4M THU and something like a $34-37M 3-day OW. Garfield, even without the 54 blocked seats initially way over-inflating the average, still did pretty alright with a pure THU comp against KFP4 solidly over $2M. Did NOT include IF because that was comping damn near $4M. Overall tho maybe something like $1.8-2.2M THU and a $22-27M 3-day OW. Had no idea what to expect with Sight given the total lack of any tracking anywhere on it, but it appears to have kind of a pulse? It outsold Cabrini for what it's worth. O/U at around $500K THU (if it even gets reported) and a $5-7M OW. 

[Tinalera]

Deadpool Wolverine

Thurs July 25 Fri July 26 (t-64) ( )

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	27	587	3484	4133	0.1420
	Fri	3	30	241	4715	4956	0.0486
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	21	443	3584	4027	0.1100
	Fri	4	27	258	2235	4868	0.0529

 

 

Nice start for Van and Calgary by the looks of it.

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

The Watchers T-15: 29.44% Awareness, 44.24% Interest

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-71: 15.76% Awareness, 33.81% Interest

The Fire Inside T-78: 12.89% Awareness, 37.56% Interest

Trap T-78: 25.04% Awareness, 47.14% Interest

White Bird T-133: 12.55% Awareness, 38.98% Interest

Mufasa: The Lion King T-211: 48.2% Awareness, 56.14% Interest

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-1: 44.67% Awareness, 44.06% Interest

Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-1: 61.28% Awareness, 51.29% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 30M, 88% chance of 40M, 76% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 48% chance of 70M, 36% chance of 80M, 28% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 83% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 90M, 33% chance of 100M

 

Sight T-1: 12.89% Awareness, 29.62% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 0% chance of 10M 

Low Interest: 0% chance of 20M

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Sacramento Report [T-1]

1158/19170 (6.04% sold) [+240 tickets] 145 showings.

 

0.33741x RotB at T-1       [2.97m]
0.59021x BOSS at T-1     [3.39m]
0.91469x Wonka at T-1   [3.20m]
0.76537x GBFE at T-1     [3.60m]
0.35251x GxK at T-1       [3.53m]
1.10602x Fall Guy at T-1 [3.48m]
0.70826x KoPotA at T-1 [3.54m] [THURSDAY ONLY COMP DUE TO MISSING EA SALES]

 

=====

 

WHELP!  Never a good sign when showtimes start disappearing the night before release.  

(Only three, but still...)

 

Before noting anything else, RotB and Fall Guy both got boosted by EA, so keep that in mind. Still, none of the other comps improved all that much, so....

 

Yeah.  Sacto might just be under-performing.  But if not, 3.75m or so might be in the cards.

 

Quick and Dirty Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Sacramento Report [T-0] [FINAL] [3:55pm-4:15pm]

*note:  all showtimes that started before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of the screening

1733/19170 (9.04% sold) [+575 tickets] 145 showings.

 

0.34848x RotB at T-0       [3.07m]
0.64161x BOSS at T-0       [3.69m]
0.87747x Wonka at T-0     [3.07m]
0.78880x GBFE at T-0       [3.71m]
0.44711x GxK at T-0          [4.47m]
1.14768x Fall Guy at T-0   [3.62m]

 

===========

 

 

 

 3.6m is likely undershooting it.... BUT IT WAS RIGHT THERE!!!!

 

Actually, since this is R-rated, will bump it up slightly to 3.9m +/- .3m

 

Meh.  The Memorial Day Weekend Curse is back in full force, it might seem.

[Maggie]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Meh.  The Memorial Day Weekend Curse is back in full force, it might seem.

Mission Impossible 8 next year to continue the trend.

[el sid]

Furiosa, counted today for today, had 2.482 sold tickets.

Up meager 21% since Monday. Unbelievable, somehow you jinxed my good numbers with all the negativity here ;). 

 

The average from comps (the short version because it's way after midnight here and I'm very tired) from 7 comparison films (Dune '21, Uncharted, The Fall Guy, Civil War, BT, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, GxK) is 6.95M. But please remember, my average on Monday was 8.3M. And between the coasts the numbers are very poor, also in my theaters.

 

The very big problem is: The average number is still quite good but the jump was really small and how much Furiosa lost in the comps is very worrisome: It lost 2M since Monday against The Fall Guy, 3M against BT and so on. And normally these trends (up/down) continue over the weekend (of course). 

So sadly now I'm not sure anymore if Furiosa reaches 5M in previews. The number is probably not much lower and maybe the reception is good, Idk. 

 

So my prediction would also be around 4-5M from previews.

Edited May 23 by el sid