The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/27/2024 at 10:13 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
658	3315	130075	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

139

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-17

(2.652x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $10.08M

(4.630x) of Garfield $8.80M

(1.418x) of Ghostbuster Frozen $6.67M

Comps average: $8.52M

 

Excellent pace this far out. Does feel like something big is around the corner. 

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
685	5579	136510	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

584

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(3.602x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $13.69M

(6.276x) of Garfield $11.92M

Comps average: $12.81M

 

Even though this will overindex in Florida, this is still accelerating at an excellent pace. Super strong final week is incoming

[Maaatt]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI Charlie's preview posts are just extrapolations from data in this thread(and that includings miniTC he is tracking). You dont get real time BO data during previews. 

Im aware.. by “near real time” i was simply trying to say give an up to date opinion late in the night of previews (as others on here do too).  I only referenced Charlie because Charlie was the one called out for “over predicting.” The entire point of my post was just to question the need of pointing out any time someone is slightly off, when these are all just estimates based on the information each person has at that time and no one should be expecting these extrapolations to be perfect. 

[jeffthehat]

Indiana 

Twisters T-41

Sales	Seats	Shows
208	23332	120

TC = 23

Comps 

1.16x Fall Guy Day 2 = $2.7m

2.36x Monkey Man Day 2 = $3.3m

---

Doesn't look like a great start here. But I only have a couple day 2 comps. I don't think Fall Guy did very well in this region. And def don't think it will be as frontloaded as Monkey Man 

Edited June 7 by jeffthehat

[emoviefan]

I don't get Universal and these long presales windows. It did not work for The Fall Guy and yet they decided to do it again for Twisters.  All this leads to when it does not explode early is the trackers saying it does not look great for the movie. Esp since this a movie that plays to the walkup late ticketbuy crowd.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 31883/626935 596891.81 3227 shows +6864

Friday - 36189/1037440 634541.05 5335 shows +10326

This is as of yesterday night. +2 days and few hours plus of data. Its definitely starting to amp up now big time just as I expected.  

Does this includes fan shows?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Does this includes fan shows?

That is on Sunday. not part of this. 

[Porthos]

FWIW, because I am a self-proclaimed idiot, I'm unofficially tracking Twisters on the side.  Sold 91 tickets last night (D1) which is better than the soft PLF-only start of KotPotA (73 tickets).

 

Not posting any updates in thread because a] I have nothing good to comp it against and b] I may be a self-proclaimed idiot, but I'm not that big of a self-proclaimed idiot to officially tie myself down to a track, Quick or other wise.  As I said, I'm tracking it on the side, along with AQPD1, in case it shows signs of breaking out.  Which it hasn't so far.

Either way, put me in the boat of "it's fine... for a GA walkup based movie that inexplicably has pre-sales 42 days out".

 

Talk to me again when we're closer to T-14 or so.

Edited June 8 by Porthos

[Flip]

48 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
685	5579	136510	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

584

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(3.602x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $13.69M

(6.276x) of Garfield $11.92M

Comps average: $12.81M

 

Even though this will overindex in Florida, this is still accelerating at an excellent pace. Super strong final week is incoming

Should probably use Disney comps (little mermaid, elemental) since it’s probably over indexing 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Flip said:

Should probably use Disney comps (little mermaid, elemental) since it’s probably over indexing 

 

While true, he shifted to all of Florida after those movies.  He does happen to have Orlando-only numbers for some Disney movies, but I gather it's annoying/difficult to separate them out in his current tracking method.

[TheFlatLannister]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

While true, he shifted to all of Florida after those movies.  He does happen to have Orlando-only numbers for some Disney movies, but I gather it's annoying/difficult to separate them out in his current tracking method.

 

26 minutes ago, Flip said:

Should probably use Disney comps (little mermaid, elemental) since it’s probably over indexing 

I will probably check Orlando separately on Monday when I have time

[Flip]

On 5/31/2024 at 10:44 PM, Flip said:

In the same two theaters: Deadpool 3 (D-55)

 

30 showtimes/674 tix sold (+232)

 

In all 3 theaters I track now:

 

36 showtimes/962 tix sold

Deadpool 3 (T-48) 

7 days of sales

 

36 showtimes/1021 tix sold (+59)

 

1.41x Bad Boys 4 T-0

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

DESPICABLE ME 4 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
874	2275	167528	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-27

(0.929x) of Inside Out 2 $???

(3.669x) of Garfield $6.97M

(2.188x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $8.31M

Comps average: $7.64M

 

Pretty massive rollout in terms of show allocations. Very good start this far out. 

Edited June 8 by TheFlatLannister

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

DESPICABLE ME 4 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
874	2275	167528	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-27

(0.929x) of Inside Out 2 $???

(3.669x) of Garfield $6.97M

(2.188x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $8.31M

Comps average: $7.64M

 

Pretty massive rollout in terms of show allocations. Very good start this far out. 

Once again this feels a bit high. 
 

The MTC 1 number we got were around 6k on 5.5K shows, not sure of current nos but I guess they be less than 10K.

 

Don’t think Florida average per showing be more than that unless ofc Disney Springs is sold out and doing most of it.

 

Also, are those comps for T-27 days? Damn. Garfield had huge sales T-27 in that case.

Edited June 8 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
685	5579	136510	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

584

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(3.602x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $13.69M

(6.276x) of Garfield $11.92M

Comps average: $12.81M

 

Even though this will overindex in Florida, this is still accelerating at an excellent pace. Super strong final week is incoming

Ignoring Disney Springs locs could help I guess, as in, comps without that, if it is possible.

[keysersoze123]

Disney Springs

DM4 -  146/4615 2631.04 15 shows

IO2 - 1384/5210 26365.16 16 shows

 

Both are as of yesterday. No comparisons indeed 🙂

 

Florida must love the yellow monsters as it has sold so many without the help of Disney Springs. 

 

 

Edited June 8 by keysersoze123

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-7)

12 showtimes/248 tix sold (+29)

 

1.893x Bad Boys 4 T-7 (only comp)

 

A Quiet Place (T-21)

 

12 showtimes/123 tix sold (+9)

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-27) (D2)

 

22 showtimes/50 tix sold (+6)

 

Twisters (T-42) (D1)

 

14 showtimes/36 tix sold 

 

.522x AQP Day One First Day

 

I’m going to track DM4 and Twisters daily for a few days then switch to sporadically since I don’t expect decent sized jumps this far out.

Inside Out 2 (T-6)

12 showtimes/281 tix sold (+33)

 

2.066x Bad Boys 4 T-6 [11.52M*] (only comp)

 

A Quiet Place (T-20)

 

12 showtimes/128 tix sold (+5)

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-26) (D3)

 

22 showtimes/56 tix sold (+6)

 

Twisters (T-41) (D2)

 

14 showtimes/35 tix sold (-1) not good.

 

* I’m assuming Bad Boys did 5.575m just yesterday since I don’t think anyone has the number yet for how much EA did

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

I don't get Universal and these long presales windows. It did not work for The Fall Guy and yet they decided to do it again for Twisters.  All this leads to when it does not explode early is the trackers saying it does not look great for the movie. Esp since this a movie that plays to the walkup late ticketbuy crowd.

Since Deadpool & Wolverine is going to be taking over the majority of theater space the following weekend, it's probably easy to book screens and showtimes for those bigger auditoriums now knowing they'll have to accept what they get with that second weekend drop. 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Since Deadpool & Wolverine is going to be taking over the majority of theater space the following weekend, it's probably easy to book screens and showtimes for those bigger auditoriums now knowing they'll have to accept what they get with that second weekend drop. 

They should have switched DM 4 and Twisters since DM will work anywhere and counterprogram D and W even way more than Twisters but I am not these brilliant studio heads  so what do I know.

[Mojoguy]

12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

They should have switched DM 4 and Twisters since DM will work anywhere and counterprogram D and W even way more than Twisters but I am not these brilliant studio heads  so what do I know.

Illumination was always going put DM4 on the early July weekend, all of those Twinkie movies opened around that time except for DM3 which like 6/30.

 

Either move Twisters up one week or have it open in August, but we wouldn't have been in this mess if the strikes didn't happen with Deadpool originally coming out in May.

Edited June 8 by Mojoguy

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

They should have switched DM 4 and Twisters since DM will work anywhere and counterprogram D and W even way more than Twisters but I am not these brilliant studio heads  so what do I know.

Twisters is actually opening in the same late July spot that Universal bowed Nope and Oppenheimer in as summer tentpoles with prestigious filmmakers behind them (yes, I know it's hard to believe, this being by far the least ambitious of all three of these movies lol), so they're probably hoping that being PG-13 will help it out against the R-rated Deadpool and then having what's looking to be a barren August resulting in strong staying power.

Edited June 8 by filmlover