The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 38884/629001 718317.52 3242 shows +3518

Friday - 48015/1038346 833277.57 5346 shows +6602

 

Flattish for previews. Friday has started to accelerate. I expect final surge to start from tomorrow. Let us see how things go. 

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 45369/628991 830843.05 3242 shows +6485

Friday - 58069/1039058 1000679.04 5352 shows +10054

 

So final surge begins. Let us see how rest of the week goes. 

[dallas]

Inside Out 2

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-4

Tickets Sold: 190 (+46)

Growth: 31.9%

% PLF: 28.4%

5 theaters/33 showtimes

 

Comps:

(6.552x) of Migration - $9.83M

(3.800x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 - $14.44M

COMPS AVG - $12.14M

 

Still chugging alone well. I really don't see the data to support anything below a $100M opening right now. 

[HummingLemon496]

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am here

Cat claws are going to beat cat claws for the July opening weekend record (if it's good)

[keysersoze123]

Family movies behave slightly different from say fan driven blockbusters. But everything hinges on how reactions go tomorrow and then reviews to take it to next level. That said I would be surprised by anything other than a rave or sub 100m OW. Probably finish close to 1st movie domestic(350-400m range) and 500mish OS for 850m-900m ish WW. Biggest movie of the year until next big blockbuster. We have Deadpool 3, Joker 2 and Mufasa who could beat this. May be Moana as well(that is bit of a stretch as it may not do that great OS).  Its also possible nothing beats it as well though Mufasa has to crash to miss the number. Only time will tell for sure. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/7/2024 at 10:23 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	183	287	566	29718	1.9

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		240	118	42.4
MTC1:		257	118	45.41
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		309	169	54.59

 

Comps:

8.32x The Garfield Movie (THU): $16.02 Million

6.02x IF: $10.54 Million

1.87x Kung Fu Panda 4: $7.12 Million (17 theaters)

1.49x Wonka: $5.21 Million (17 theaters)

5.14x Trolls 3: $6.68 Million

Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): Missed

 

Average: $9.11 Million

 

Garfield is a bad comp because EA was still syphoning off a bunch of sales at this point, but all other comps also went up significantly. This also has PLFs, as opposed to comps like Trolls or Garfield. Still think KFP4 is the best comp, but some really good signs here!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	190	370	936	30830	3.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		410	170	43.8
MTC1:		403	146	43.06
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		533	224	56.94

 

Comps:

8.83x The Garfield Movie (THU): $17 Million

7.2x IF: $12.6 Million

2.06x Kung Fu Panda 4: $7.83 Million (17 theaters)

1.94x Wonka: $6.78 Million (17 theaters)

5.78x Trolls 3: $7.51 Million (17 theaters)

2.28x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $7.07 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $9.8 Million

 

Really good pace, up against all comps again. Really inclined though to remove IF and Garfield as comps, I agree with M37 in that this will be more adult heavy (and thus more pre-sales heavy). 

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/7/2024 at 10:27 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	138	12	158	24094	0.66

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		135	16	85.44
MTC1:		127	21	80.38
Alamo:		0	-12	0
Other chains:		31	3	19.62

 

Comps:

0.51x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Total): $3.37 Million

0.71x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $3.18 Million (17 theaters)

1.6x Exorcist Believer: $4.55 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $3.7 Million

 

I welcome any comp ideas here!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	138	38	196	24094	0.81

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		151	16	77.04
MTC1:		154	27	78.57
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		42	11	21.43

 

Comps:

0.57x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Total): $3.76 Million

0.8x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $3.6 Million (17 theaters)

1.89x Exorcist Believer: $5.39 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.25 Million

 

Chuggin along

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/7/2024 at 10:33 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-42, Day 1):

Day: T-42, T-41	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 22 theaters	131	49	49	21730	0.23
Wednesday July 17 EA: 13 theaters	17	39	39	3492	1.12
TOTALS:	148	88	88	25222	0.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		39	39	79.59
MTC1:		28	28	57.14
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		21	21	42.86

 

Day 1 Comps (EA included):

1.26x Fall Guy: $3.96 Million

1.17x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $7.74 Million

0.42x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $1.98 Million

0.99x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.44 Million

0.37x FNAF: $3.8 Million

 

Average: $4.38 Million

 

All Day 1 Comps, I also welcome any comp suggestions for the future! Pretty good start

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-39):

Day: T-39, T-38	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	134	27	76	22993	0.33
Wednesday July 17 EA: 13 theaters	17	6	45	3492	1.29
TOTALS:	151	33	121	26485	0.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		56	39	73.68
MTC1:		47	28	61.84
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		29	21	38.16

 

I will start having comps for this in one week, T-32. For now this is not doing terribly for what I think will be a big walk-up movie

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/2/2024 at 10:49 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-53):

Day: T-53	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	298	1077	3867	44821	8.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2678	685	69.25
MTC1:		1645	396	42.54
Alamo:		272	49	7.03
Other chains:		1950	632	50.43

 

After 13 days...

2.15x Dune Part 2 (T-21): $21.46 Million

3.51x The Marvels (T-18): $23.19 Million

 

Just wanted to give a frame of reference for how this is doing (pretty darn good!). Just chuggin along

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-46):

Day: T-46	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	290	84	3951	44821	8.82

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2722	44	68.89
MTC1:		1814	169	45.91
Alamo:		0	-272	0
Other chains:		2137	187	54.09

 

No comps yet, wanted to update it and remove the Alamo sales

 

[keysersoze123]

So sad to see 6 Drafthouse locations have closed already. I wonder how long rest will remain open considering the company has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. 

 

@abracadabra1998 It does not look like other chains picked up the sales from the loss at drafthouse. I am not sure they are getting those tickets refunded either though charge back could help and the Credit Card Companies would be among the debtors 🙂

[Maaatt]

22 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	190	370	936	30830	3.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		410	170	43.8
MTC1:		403	146	43.06
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		533	224	56.94

 

Comps:

8.83x The Garfield Movie (THU): $17 Million

7.2x IF: $12.6 Million

2.06x Kung Fu Panda 4: $7.83 Million (17 theaters)

1.94x Wonka: $6.78 Million (17 theaters)

5.78x Trolls 3: $7.51 Million (17 theaters)

2.28x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $7.07 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $9.8 Million

 

Really good pace, up against all comps again. Really inclined though to remove IF and Garfield as comps, I agree with M37 in that this will be more adult heavy (and thus more pre-sales heavy). 

i agree with you and think M37’s argument makes sense,  i also agreed with him that this probably isn’t quite as adult heavy as the movies he listed like the toy story franchise, putting it somewhere in between, the question being just how close it gets to the adult leaning titles. The LA Little Mermaid imo is probably much more adult leaning, the original was from the late 80s, i have women friends in their 30’s and late 20’s, without children, who bought opening night tickets pre-sale for that movie and that will not be the case for IO2 im guessing, granted thats just anecdotal.. It might be worthwhile to leave IF and Garfield in for a few more days just to compare the pace and see if M37’s prediction that IO2 probably wont have the same level of ramp up in the final week pans out?

[Maaatt]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So sad to see 6 Drafthouse locations have closed already. I wonder how long rest will remain open considering the company has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. 

 

@abracadabra1998 It does not look like other chains picked up the sales from the loss at drafthouse. I am not sure they are getting those tickets refunded either though charge back could help and the Credit Card Companies would be among the debtors 🙂

 
wasn’t it just one franchise operator that filed chapter 7? 

[AnthonyJPHer]

48 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	190	370	936	30830	3.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		410	170	43.8
MTC1:		403	146	43.06
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		533	224	56.94

 

Comps:

8.83x The Garfield Movie (THU): $17 Million

7.2x IF: $12.6 Million

2.06x Kung Fu Panda 4: $7.83 Million (17 theaters)

1.94x Wonka: $6.78 Million (17 theaters)

5.78x Trolls 3: $7.51 Million (17 theaters)

2.28x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $7.07 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $9.8 Million

 

Really good pace, up against all comps again. Really inclined though to remove IF and Garfield as comps, I agree with M37 in that this will be more adult heavy (and thus more pre-sales heavy). 

I think it’ll be walk up heavy. I’m not ordering tickets until the 19th, and it’ll be walk up tickets. Not extremely walk up heavy like Kung Fu Panda 4 or Bad Boys 4, but somewhere in the middle. I think 9-10m previews and 98-110m opening weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

If and Garfield did $2M previews vs IO2 probably doing $10M. 

They aren't good comps even if IO2 was completely a kids affair.

[Potiki]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So sad to see 6 Drafthouse locations have closed already. I wonder how long rest will remain open considering the company has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. 

 

@abracadabra1998 It does not look like other chains picked up the sales from the loss at drafthouse. I am not sure they are getting those tickets refunded either though charge back could help and the Credit Card Companies would be among the debtors 🙂

As far as I can tell the rest of the Alamo locations should be fine as it was the franchisee who filed for bankruptcy not the company themselves. 

 

Important quotes from the recent Variety article explaining things:

 

Quote

Six Alamo Drafthouse franchised locations are closing abruptly after their owner filed for bankruptcy. 

 

The venues include five Texas locations in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, as well as a Minnesota venue in Woodbury. The theaters are operated by Two is One, One is None, LLC, which is filing for Chapter 7.

Quote

A spokesperson for Alamo Drafthouse said in a statement that the company is “heartbroken for the franchisee’s teammates and the local film communities.” The statement went on to say: “We are working as quickly as possible to get Alamo Drafthouse Cinema back up and running in these cities. All other Alamo Drafthouse locations are operating as normal, with continued expansion plans across the country.” 

 

Following the closures, there are 35 Alamo locations nationwide — 15 of those are franchise locations, and 20 are corporate owned theaters. Alamo has attracted a passionate following with its extensive menu of cocktails, craft beer and food, as well as its strict “no talking, no texting” policy. During the pandemic, Alamo Drafthouse’s corporate ownership filed for bankruptcy in March 2021. It emerged from bankruptcy in June 2021.

source: https://variety.com/2024/film/news/alamo-drafthouse-theaters-close-bankrupt-1236027457/

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If and Garfield did $2M previews vs IO2 probably doing $10M. 

They aren't good comps even if IO2 was completely a kids affair.

Why would it only do $10M previews if the current comps are spitting out $12-13M?

[JustLurking]

The current comps are not spitting 12-13 would be the easy answer. Only a few select markets are, and those would generally overindex anyway. 12-13 from here would require pretty amazing final few days. But I'd take anything over 100 as decent/solid.

Edited June 10 by JustLurking

[Insomnia]

9 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Why would it only do $10M previews if the current comps are spitting out $12-13M?

Because you can't assume the walk-ups are going to be there that would result in that number in the end. Those are educated projections but ultimately nobody can predict the walk ups, especially in today's entertainment landscape. Will a massive amount of kids want their parents to take them or will they not? Nobody knows.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-47 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28945	33627	4682	13.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

64

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	22.17%		7.98m
L&T		16962	27.60%		8.00m
BP2		16800	27.87%		7.80m
AM3		10475	44.70%		7.82m
GOTG3		10750	43.55%		7.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       990/12927  [7.66% sold]
Matinee:    254/4470  [5.68% | 5.43% of all tickets sold]
3D:             448/6801  [6.59% | 9.57% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2520/11535  [21.85% | 53.82% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        54 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    59 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-46 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28884	33627	4743	14.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

61

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	22.46%		8.09m
L&T		16962	27.96%		8.11m
BP2		16800	28.23%		7.91m
AM3		10475	45.28%		7.92m
GOTG3		10750	44.12%		7.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1014/12927  [7.84% sold]
Matinee:     258/4470  [5.77% | 5.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:              448/6801  [6.59% | 9.45% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         2546/11535  [22.07% | 53.68% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV         60 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV     61 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	23116	24766	1650	6.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

150

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	138.77		145	1189		0/92	11748/12937	9.19%		3951	41.76%		8.67m
Lightyear	154.78		198	1066		0/129	15410/16476	6.47%		4091	40.33%		8.05m
Minion 2	142.98		137	1154		0/169	24218/25372	4.55%		6591	25.03%		15.37m
Element	430.81		34	383		—/—	9109/9492	4.03%		1910	86.39%		10.34m
Barbie	32.74		470	5040		1/180	16708/21748	23.17%		12077	13.66%		7.40m
Wonka	272.73		46	605		0/127	20045/20650	2.93%		1975	83.54%		9.55m
GBFE	217.68		64	758		0/142	22218/22976	3.30%		2197	75.10%		10.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     299/10075   [2.97% sold]
Matinee:    164/2675  [6.13% | 9.94% of all tickets sold]
3D:            107/3851   [2.78% | 6.48% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          732/9776  [7.49% | 44.36% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	22772	24766	1994	8.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

344

 

T-4 Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	146.51		172	1361		0/92	11557/12918	10.54%		3951	50.47%		9.16m
Lightyear	159.14		187	1253		0/129	15223/16476	7.61%		4091	48.74%		8.28m
Minion 2	140.72		263	1417		0/169	23955/25372	5.58%		6591	30.25%		15.13m
Element	459.45		51	434		—/—	9058/9492	4.57%		1910	104.40%		11.03m
Barbie	35.20		625	5665		1/180	16083/21748	26.05%		12077	16.51%		7.95m
Wonka	280.45		106	711		0/128	20047/20758	3.43%		1975	100.96%		9.82m
GBFE	235.70		88	846		0/142	22130/22976	3.68%		2197	90.76%		11.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     415/10075  [4.12% sold]
Matinee:  206/2675  [7.70% | 10.33% of all tickets sold]
3D:            136/3851  [3.53% | 6.82% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          814/9776  [8.33% | 40.82% of all tickets sold]

 

===========

 

 

Will it continue?  Guess that's up to reactions and reviews.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/9/2024 at 12:43 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-5 Days

 

Previews - 2348/64388 (250 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $21.4M

 

Haunted Mansion - $13.5M

Wonka - $13.5M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $11.5M

 

Amazing how KFP4 comp is still $21M+. Ofc it will start dropping and a big drop on the final day to come in the low teens.

 

MiniTC2 will over-index for Pixar due to the big Hispanic audience here.

 

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-4 Days

 

Previews - 2955/64400 (250 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $20.3M

 

Haunted Mansion - $14.1M

Wonka - $14.2M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $12.1M

Minions 2 - $17.2M (inf. adj $18M)

Lightyear - $7.9M (inf. adj $8.2M)

 

KFP4 dropped as expected and it will continue to do so. Same for Minions 2. The middle 3 comps shall continue to be around $14-15M. Lightyear shall increase.

 

Just for funsies

IF - $21M

Garfield - $22M

 

Just like KFP4, pretty much useless comp.