The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-4 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 56

New Sales : 16

Growth: 40%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 115

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/7

Early Evening: 51/7

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 29/8

IMAX: 19/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Previews Comps

1.931x Fall Guy for $4.5M*

0.500x KOTPOTA for $2.5M

0.675x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $4.0M

0.191x HG: BoSS for $1.1M

0.452x Furiosa for $1.6M

 

EA Comp

1.983x Fall Guy for $1.6M

 

First off, I had an error for my Fall Guy comp, where I used the reported Thursday gross instead of netting out the EA. I've adjusted now, which is why it's dropped.

 

Other than that, a very positive day, with growth against all comps, and EA doing well as well.

 

Another interesting observation is that right now, 90% of sales for previews are for early evening shows. You expect that to be the biggest seller, but that's pretty extreme. I'd say it's a bit of a signal that this is ultimately casual viewing. No one is going out of their way to see this.

 

Twisters, T-3 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 92

New Sales : 36

Growth: 64%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.4

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 142

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/7

Early Evening: 84/7

Late Evening: 5/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 40/8

IMAX: 31/6

4DX: 21/3

 

Previews Comps

1.917x Fall Guy for $4.5M

0.687x KOTPOTA for $3.4M

0.836x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $4.9M

0.285x HG: BoSS for $1.6M

0.597x Furiosa for $2.1M

 

EA Comp

2.328x Fall Guy for $1.9M

 

Really big day. It feels like it's catching a tail wind up here. 

 

 

[AniNate]

3 hours ago, Human said:

I have real doubts Twisters overperforms in middle America.  If they made "Hurricane the Movie" I do not think my fellow Gulf Coasters watch it in theaters.

 

It's not really the same situation, although a hypothetical hurricane movie I think could draw interest depending on how it's executed. 

 

Clearly if this is gonna perform at all it's gonna be in middle America. The original Twister made a lot of its bank there and was more about indulging in Moby Dick sort of personal dynamics than disaster imagery for disaster imagery's sake. Storm chasers and the data they provide help improve warning systems that have made tornadoes a lot less fatal recently, and there's a certain heroism in that which people appreciate.

 

[Poseidon]

Good to see it's catching up.

 

It's going to be a disaster over here in Germany...

The Original did 3,7m afmissions back in 1996.

This one will miss the 1m mark by a mile. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/15/2024 at 8:46 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-3	Jax	5	57	100	268	9,841	2.72%
		Phx	7	36	59	201	6,843	2.94%
		Ral	8	45	57	221	6,354	3.48%
	Total		20	138	216	690	23,038	3.00%
Twisters (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	11	96	377	2,391	15.77%
		Phx	1	2	12	37	618	5.99%
		Ral	2	2	7	62	412	15.05%
	Total		8	15	115	476	3,421	13.91%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Twisters (Total) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 3.22x (10.15m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .912x (8.23m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.333x (8.79m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.582x (6.96m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .647x (5.7m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .206x (4.075m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Total) - 1.561x (9.17m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - 1.869x (8.8m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.19m

 

Twisters (Thu) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.209x (7.54m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .54x (4.87m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.261x (6.307m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - .936x (4.12m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .62x (3.97m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .174x (2.62m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - 1.021x (5.92m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.59x (5.45m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.1m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-2	Jax	5	64	41	309	10,338	2.99%
		Phx	7	48	51	252	7,741	3.26%
		Ral	8	66	89	310	7,856	3.95%
	Total		20	178	181	871	25,935	3.36%
Twisters (EA)	T-1	Jax	5	11	75	452	2,391	18.90%
		Phx	1	2	25	62	618	10.03%
		Ral	2	2	5	67	412	16.26%
	Total		8	15	105	581	3,421	16.98%

 

Twisters (EA) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .321x (1.51m)

 - Bad Boys 4 (EA) - 5.43x (407k)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 1.6x (2.55m)

 - Fall Guy (EA) - 3.609x (2.89m)

 - Barbie (EA) - .88x (1m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .781x (937k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .795x (1.41m)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 3.06x (4.07m)

 - Creed III (EA) - 2.024x (2.02m)

 

This is a pretty big spread for EA comps.  The closest in terms of number of shows are Fall Guy, Creed III, Kingdom of Apes and Top Gun which would indicate that 2m would be in play.  

 

Twisters (Thu) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.584x (8.42m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .535x (4.82m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.285x (6.42m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - .985x (4.34m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .692x (4.43m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .186x (2.8m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - .991x (5.75m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.66x (5.69m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.25m

[VanillaSkies]

10 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	227	287	1115	35391	3.15
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	198	843	4624	18.23
TOTALS:	248	485	1958	40015	4.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		724	162	64.93
MTC1:		572	127	51.3
Other chains:		543	160	48.7

 

Thursday Comps:

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

2x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.99 Million

3.6x Fall Guy: $8.45 Million

1.24x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.82 Million (17 theaters)

1.75x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.9 Million (17 theaters)

0.62x Indy 5: $4.47 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.33 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.65x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.64 Million

2.68x Fall Guy: $2.14 Million

1.05x MI7: $2.1 Million

 

Average: $2.29 Million

 

Wow, could EA really be around $2 Million, or am I wildly over-indexing? Still running really hot here

EA could be that strong, because some theatres are treating it more like a Thursday previews night. 
 

For example, between the IMAX and EA showings on Wednesday night, many Los Angeles AMCs have 4-5 showings that night!

[AniNate]

Yeah EA seems to be taking much of the upfront demand and the Thursday is playing like a normal Thursday. Friday though is also looking pretty big from where I'm sitting.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/13/2024 at 9:27 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Deadpool Wolverine	T-12	Jax	5	136	77	2,361	18,957	12.45%
		Phx	6	148	97	2,238	21,941	10.20%
		Ral	8	145	49	2,007	16,253	12.35%
	Total		19	429	223	6,606	57,151	11.56%

 

Deadpool Wolverine T-12 adjusted comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .644x (23.75m)

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - Batman (Total) - missed

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.695x (29.66m)

 - No Way Home - .367x (19.47m)

 - Black Panther 2 - missed

 

*I had a typo in yesterday's sales for Jacksonville that inflated it by 30 sales.  Post and quoted post have been updated.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Deadpool Wolverine	T-9	Jax	5	136	225	2,586	18,957	13.64%
		Phx	7	157	40	2,278	22,949	9.93%
		Ral	8	147	184	2,191	16,447	13.32%
	Total		20	440	449	7,055	58,353	12.09%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Deadpool Wolverine T-9 adjusted comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .641x (23.61m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.1x (32.66m)

 - Batman (Total) - 1.318x (29.73m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.632x (28.56m)

 - No Way Home - .363x (19.25m)

 - Black Panther 2 - .988x (28.33m)

 

Size adjusted average - 27.49m

 

**There were quite a few shows in MTC1 in Phx that wouldn't load today, maybe 30 or so.  I tried on both corporate site and Fandango and got the same result.  Numbers could be slightly higher as I was forced to use Sat numbers for those shows.

[titanic2187]

I guess it is in Universal interest to soft open this on Wednesday to provide maximum exposure of PLF before DP3 storm hit. 

[VanillaSkies]

21 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I guess it is in Universal interest to soft open this on Wednesday to provide maximum exposure of PLF before DP3 storm hit. 

Right out of Mission Impossible’s playbook last year. Which just begs the question, why didn’t they just open it last weekend?

[AniNate]

I don't know but the international openings last weekend hardly inspired much confidence. They may very well have preferred to avoid all the sportsball going on in most of the territories, and given the breaking politics-related event in the US it may very well have taken away a lot of the attention of the prospective Twisters audience last weekend.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Twisters EA - 708/1,486 (6 shows)

Twisters Thu - 885/22,031 (140 shows)

 

EA comps

 - Top Gun EA - .55x (2.53m)

 - Barbie EA - 1.4x (1.54m)

 

Thursday T-2 comps

 - Indiana Jones - 1.193x (8.59m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .663x (3.98m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .472x (4.34m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .245x (3.6m)

[vafrow]

Any sign of Trap tickets being up for sale. They were supposed to go up today, but no sign of them on MTC4.

[el sid]

From last Sunday: 

 

Alien: Romulus had decent 552 sold tickets for Thursday, August 15 (with shows in 6 of the 7 theaters, no shows in the AMC in Texas so far). 

Best presales in the AMC in LA (323 sold tickets), ok sales in NY (52), a bit muted in Miami (20). 

 

Comps (always counted for Thursday): A Quiet Place: Day One (6.8M from previews) had also with ca. 1 month left and in the same 6 theaters 315 sold tickets. 

Indiana Jones 5 (7.2M) had with ca. 1 month left 957 (but did not even double its sales till Monday of the release week). 

The Creator (1.6M) had with 19 days left 327. 

Monkey Man (1.4M) had with 22 days left 252.

And The Fall Guy (2.35M) had with 6 days left 534 sold tickets. 

 

After the disappointing performance of Alien: Covenant I don't expect this film to become a big hit but that was a solid start in my theaters. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

37 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Any sign of Trap tickets being up for sale. They were supposed to go up today, but no sign of them on MTC4.

They are on sale in the US.  Not sure what time they went up.

[Flip]

56 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Any sign of Trap tickets being up for sale. They were supposed to go up today, but no sign of them on MTC4.

They’re on sale at AMC

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Trap seems to be getting just traditional 2D showings. No IMAX isn't surprising but I thought it would at least get some Dolby. At the very least, that's a new angle for pre-sales since there won't be any PLF surcharges.

Edited July 16 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[Flip]

Trap is definitely doing at least 20m OW

[katnisscinnaplex]

11 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Trap seems to be getting just traditional 2D showings. No IMAX isn't surprising but I thought it would at least get some Dolby. At the very least, that's a new angle for pre-sales since there won't be any PLF surcharges.

I'm seeing about 100 D-Box shows but with how small those are it shouldn't affect anything.  A little surprised by the lack of Dolby; we'll see if they add some once it gets closer

[el sid]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Any sign of Trap tickets being up for sale. They were supposed to go up today, but no sign of them on MTC4.

In "my" AMCs they are already on sale. 

 

It gets surprisingly small cinema halls 🤔. So far it has sold 17 tickets (for Thursday, August 1) in the AMC Metreon in San Francisco and 19 in the AMC in LA. 

[Eric Deetz]

3 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

Right out of Mission Impossible’s playbook last year. Which just begs the question, why didn’t they just open it last weekend?

Despicable Me. That's why.

 

Universal's not gonna hurt one of their own movies, especially a potential billion-dollar hit. If they put the movie out last week, then DM4 loses all its PLFs to Twisters and gets hit with a potentially bad second weekend drop. By having it on DM4's third weekend, DM4 gets a little more IMAX/Dolby play, resulting in the great second weekend hold it just had, and then will hold well yet again this week thanks to double features with Twisters, and therefore more cash money. From what I can gather, almost every market that got the movie last week got DM4 earlier than its domestic debut.

 

Twisters' release date still isn't perfect, but last week isn't as ideal as it seems, at least for Uni's bigger picture.