The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

71 second weekend sales now for Twisters

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

The idea behind news events affecting ticket sales is generally that one really big event crowds out headlines/space in which people might otherwise have happened to see some kind of promo or reminder that the film was coming out, or just that in general big news events tend to distract attention from other things. It's not about people watching news all day. 

 

And thing is, DP3 is at a level where the difference between, say an increase from 525 tickets sold to 800 tickets sold in Sacramento versus 900 tickets sold would be unknowable.  That's why I said slight.  

 

Now there was an undeniable dip last Sat and Sun.  Like absolutely undeniable locally.  But since we're now at the Surge Stage, the difference between a 100% and 95% surge?  Hell if I know how to capture it.  But more wondering aloud what sort of affect it might have.

 

Mind, if there is any it'd be cancelled out by tomorrow/Tuesday anyway.

Edited July 21 by Porthos

[Ryan C]

I'm sure any of you who are tracking Deadpool and Wolverine in this thread would know this, but I just looked at the Thursday-weekend multipliers for every single Marvel movie released between 2022 and 2023. Obviously, it's extremely important to see how it does in the following weeks, but Thursday previews and the IM over the weekend will be key in showing us whether this will follow the path of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 or Thor: Love and Thunder. 

 

1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness = 5.206x

2. Thor: Love and Thunder = 4.971x

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever = 6.476x

4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania = 6.133x

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 = 6.767x

6. The Marvels = 6.986x

 

Since Deadpool and Wolverine is opening in July, Thor: Love and Thunder is the closest comp to use for this. However, L&T got mixed reception from both critics and audiences, which I'm sure led to the lower than usual IM. If Deadpool and Wolverine gets stronger critical reviews/great audience reception, that IM is easily going up to at least somewhere between 5 and 5.25 (maybe a bit higher). 

 

It's important to bring this up because good word-of-mouth is essential in giving Marvel movies more life after opening weekend. Despite opening at the exact same time in May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 was leggier than Doctor Strange 2. Part of that was because Strange opened much higher, but also primarily because word-of-mouth was much stronger for Guardians. Strange may have had the bigger final domestic total ($411.3M), but Guardians got surprisingly close with ($359M) and that's with Strange opening nearly $70M higher than Guardians

 

I don't know if Deadpool and Wolverine will be as leggy as Guardians 3, but as long as it hits with audiences and gets a Cinemascore that is an A or even A+, I wouldn't doubt it. 

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

71 second weekend sales now for Twisters

 

89

[charlie Jatinder]

Yeah something like this will impact sales. Assassination attempt impacted overall BO last week as well along with pre-sales.

[AniNate]

I would say the sports affected the box office last week more than the news. Definitely doesn't seem like this story is impacting Twisters sales much.

 

 

Edited July 22 by AniNate

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/18/2024 at 10:58 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	67	14	37	6411	0.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		30	14	81.08
Other chains:		7	0	18.92

 

Comps:

2.85x Abigail: $2.85 Million

4.11 Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $3.49 Million

 

I will have better comps for this later, a lot of these smaller movies I don't track until later

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	67	33	70	6411	1.09

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		63	33	90
Other chains:		7	0	10

 

Comps:

2.33x Abigail: $2.33 Million

2.41x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $2.05 Million

4.93x Imaginary: $3.57 Million (17 theaters)

 

Imaginary is the one comp that is PG-13, so maybe a good sign? I'll keep adding more comps as we get closer to it.

 

Also, I noticed that this was on sale...

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 7 theaters	27	0	0	2530	0

 

Yeah, 0 tickets sold. But MTC1 doesn't have any showings on sale yet, same thing with a few other chains. And this is with only 11 days left. Total dump

[HummingLemon496]

4 hours ago, Ryan C said:

It's important to bring this up because good word-of-mouth is essential in giving Marvel movies more life after opening weekend. Despite opening at the exact same time in May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 was leggier than Doctor Strange 2. Part of that was because Strange opened much higher, but also primarily because word-of-mouth was much stronger for Guardians. Strange may have had the bigger final domestic total ($411.3M), but Guardians got surprisingly close with ($359M) and that's with Strange opening nearly $70M higher than Guardians

Yeah GOTG only made 10% less than DS2 domestically despite having <50% of the preview number

 

And btw GOTG 3 released in DS2's spot easily beats $411M

Edited July 22 by HummingLemon496

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/18/2024 at 10:58 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	63	43	94	6274	1.5
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	9	19	55	946	5.81
TOTALS:	72	62	149	7220	2.06

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		17	9	18.09
Other chains:		77	42	81.91

 

Comps (Total THU + EA):

0.69x Fall Guy: $2.18 Million

 

Absolutely rubbish comp, I'll have better stuff closer to release date. This is doing really good in only 2 days of sales

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 21 theaters	66	63	157	6457	2.43
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	9	73	128	946	13.53
TOTALS:	75	136	285	7403	3.85

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		42	25	26.75
Other chains:		115	38	73.25

 

Comps (Total EA + THU):

1.24x Fall Guy: $3.92 Million

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/18/2024 at 3:23 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	109	186	186	18127	1.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		153	153	82.26
MTC1:		144	144	77.42
Other chains:		42	42	22.58

 

Comps:

0.78x Twisters (w/ EA): ?? (if $8 Million combined --> $6.25 Million)

0.83x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $5.5 Million

1.03x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $3.26 Million

1.36x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.11 Million (17 theaters)

3.08x Exorcist Believer: $8.77 Million (17 theaters)

 

Ask and you shall receive @Firepower (although... maybe not your intention, but no need to be rude! @katnisscinnaplex had posted numbers for this already, and it's not like none of us get paid here )

 

Anyways, really good start honestly! Theaters seem pretty skittish though... low number of showings and some of the smaller chains haven't given this PLF screens yet. Think Apes is probably the comp I'll keep a closest eye on 

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	109	36	222	18127	1.22

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		185	32	83.33
MTC1:		169	25	76.13
Other chains:		53	11	23.87

 

Comps:

0.85x Twisters (w/ EA): $9.14 Million

0.88x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $5.79 Million

1.13x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $3.57 Million

1.16x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.23 Million (17 theaters)

2.68x Exorcist Believer: $7.64 Million (17 theaters)

 

This is doing quite well honestly!

[HummingLemon496]

Be prepared for the absolute explosion in sales when we get reception 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah something like this will impact sales. Assassination attempt impacted overall BO last week as well along with pre-sales.

Tbf, something like an assassination or any kind of violent event going around in the news would make people want to stay home because it would feel way more unsafe going out

Edited July 22 by lorddemaxus

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	67	33	70	6411	1.09

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		63	33	90
Other chains:		7	0	10

 

Comps:

2.33x Abigail: $2.33 Million

2.41x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $2.05 Million

4.93x Imaginary: $3.57 Million (17 theaters)

 

Imaginary is the one comp that is PG-13, so maybe a good sign? I'll keep adding more comps as we get closer to it.

 

Also, I noticed that this was on sale...

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 7 theaters	27	0	0	2530	0

 

Yeah, 0 tickets sold. But MTC1 doesn't have any showings on sale yet, same thing with a few other chains. And this is with only 11 days left. Total dump

 

Sucks that theaters are gonna be forced to dump inside out 2 for Harold, maybe they can bring it back later in August though.

[CIDMoosa]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 21 theaters	66	63	157	6457	2.43
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	9	73	128	946	13.53
TOTALS:	75	136	285	7403	3.85

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		42	25	26.75
Other chains:		115	38	73.25

 

Comps (Total EA + THU):

1.24x Fall Guy: $3.92 Million

How good is this?

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	302	28539	38190	9651	25.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

525

 

T-5 Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	71.44		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	45.70%		25.72m
L&T	107.60		302	8969		0/251	24732/33701	26.61%		16962	56.90%		31.21m
BP2	101.42		412	9516		2/307	28444/37960	25.07%		16800	57.45%		28.40m
AM3	152.92		127	6311		0/249	27315/33626	18.77%		10475	92.13%		26.76m
GOTG3	185.13		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	89.78%		32.40m
Bats	170.72		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	82.09%		36.88m
Ava 2	205.95		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	107.40%		35.01m
Wick 4	467.59		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	177.15%		41.62m
Dune 2	291.84		190	3307		0/185	23090/26397	12.53%		6001	160.82%		35.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2276/13029  [17.47% sold]
Matinee:    669/4466  [14.98% | 6.93% of all tickets sold]
3D:             1134/7731  [14.67% | 11.75% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         4021/11729  [34.28% | 41.66% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     489 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     501 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.67687x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [40.85m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	302	27871	38190	10319	27.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

668

 

T-4 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	71.89		844	14353		0/353	28327/42680	33.63%		21117	48.87%		25.88m
L&T	107.95		590	9559		0/251	24142/33701	28.36%		16962	60.84%		31.31m
BP2	101.83		575	10134		2/308	27930/38064	26.62%		16800	61.42%		28.51m
AM3	156.02		303	6614		0/251	27082/33696	19.63%		10475	98.51%		27.30m
GOTG3	180.43		506	5719		0/227	26231/31950	17.90%		10750	95.99%		31.58m
AtSV	261.70		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	105.90%		45.41m
Bats	171.38		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	87.77%		37.02m
Ava 2	202.57		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	114.83%		34.44m
Wick 4	447.68		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	189.41%		39.84m
Dune 2	289.21		261	3568		0/186	22983/26551	13.44%		6001	171.95%		34.71m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2462/13029  [18.90% sold]
Matinee:     723/4466  [16.19% | 7.01% of all tickets sold]
3D:             1220/7731  [15.78% | 11.82% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          4201/11729  [35.82% | 40.71% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     590 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     610 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.66175x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [40.48m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

======

 

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

NOT THE THREAD... I REPEAT NOT THE THREAD

 

But I wonder if DP3 sales will take a slight hit today.  It'll be hard to tell, and it could be that the sheer level of interest in DP3 will simply swamp the story, buuuuuuuuuuuut...

 

Do wonder if DP3 will take a very slight hit today.

 

(THIS IS A TRACKING RELATED POST AND ****NOT**** A US POLITICS POST)

 

I dunno... Maybe?  Maybe not??  The Sat bump was already large so it's hard for me to say.  I'll leave it to the data munchers to figure out.  If there was one, does look to be slight.

 

Either way, even though I think the ATP will be gah-bage, added AtSV by request.  Probably more useful for pacing purposes than anything else.

 

Aside from that?

 

Total Seats Sold Today

668

 

Guess Deadpool will have to settle for being the neighbor of the Beast!

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

Doesn’t necessarily look like there was any impact to me, but it’s extra hard to tell since it’s unclear how much we should be coming down from final trailer/coming into final week anyway 🤷‍♂️ 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

Doesn’t necessarily look like there was any impact to me, but it’s extra hard to tell since it’s unclear how much we should be coming down from final trailer/coming into final week anyway 🤷‍♂️ 

 

Exactly my position.  Did take a look at some of the MCU comps and saw they didn't budge much, one way or the other.  Not sure if they should have moved much tonight, though I will note GOTG3 going down about 1m.

 

But, as you say, "¯\_(ツ)_/¯".   

 

Think the Mon/Tue numbers are gonna tell the tale one way or the other.

 

...

 

...

 

...

 

Dark Brandon must have really wanted that Neighbor of the Beast joke to happen, so he pulled one last solid for us all, before heading out the door! 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/21/2024 at 1:08 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-5 Days

 

Previews - 18446/108765 (460 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $37.7M

Thor 4 - $36M 

GoTG 3 - $36.7M

 

Another outstanding day.

Deadpool 3 MiniTC T-4 Days

 

Previews - 20252/108974 (461 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $38M

Thor 4 - $37M 

GoTG 3 - $36.7M

 

Fantastic day. All comps rise once again. Monday jump should seal the trend.

 

Edited July 22 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

It Ends with Us MiniTC2 T-18 Days

 

EA - 304/1513 (10 showings)
Previews - 589/18126 (97 showings)
Friday - 1029/25134 (128 showings)

 

Comps

Barbie - $5.35M Previews & $26.4M Friday

 

Deadpool 3 - 8% of Previews (~$3M+) & 13% of Friday (~$8M)

 

This is over-indexing here but LOL.

Edited July 22 by charlie Jatinder

[THUNDER BIRD]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC T-4 Days

 

Previews - 20252/108974 (461 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $38M

Thor 4 - $37M 

GoTG 3 - $36.7M

 

Fantastic day. All comps rise once again. Monday jump should seal the trend.

 

More, need more.