The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

It's hard to picture Borderlands doing much better than Madame Web numbers at this point tbh.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/30/2024 at 7:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TRAP

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
365	1814	73044	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

393

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(2.595x) of Watchers $2.60M 

(0.934x) of Long Legs $3.08M 

COMPS AVG: $2.84M

 

Could be~$3M previews. Dang

FLORIDA 

 

TRAP

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
365	2205	73044	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

391

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(2.749x) of Watchers $2.75M 

(0.908x) of Long Legs $3.00M 

COMPS AVG: $2.88M

 

Still looks like ~$3M to me

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/29/2024 at 10:25 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
384	2402	74950	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

137

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-10

(1.110x) of Bad Boys $6.55M

(1.806x) of Fall Guy Boys $4.15M

Comps AVG: $5.35M

 

Pretty wow numbers. Not too far off from Twisters at the same point. Not too sure what to comp it with

FLORIDA 

IT ENDS WITH US 

 

Thursday 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
384	3010	74950	4.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

343

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-8

(1.203x) of Bad Boys $7.10M

(2.072x) of Fall Guy $4.76M

Comps AVG: $5.93M

 

Super strong numbers continue. Outpacing Twisters, Quiet place, and Furiosa easily. Could be $6M+???

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	102	95	368	9392	3.92

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		287	68	77.99
Other chains:		81	27	22.01

 

Comps:

2.92x Watchers: $2.92 Million

2.77x Abigail: $2.77 Million

3.87x Imaginary: $2.8 Million (17 theaters)

1.71x Haunting in Venice (THU): $1.89 Million (17 theaters)

3.59x Last Voyage of Demeter: $2.69 Million (17 theaters)

 

Good pace, still targeting $2.75-3 Million previews from what I see here

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	98	15	42	8358	0.5

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		15	4	35.71
Other chains:		27	11	64.29

 

Comps:

0.27x Garfield Movie (THU): $525k

0.21x IF: $365k

0.51x Ruby Gilman: $375k (12 theaters)

 

Maybe targeting $500k previews, if that

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	102	126	494	9392	5.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		357	70	72.27
Other chains:		137	56	27.73

 

Comps:

2.84x Watchers: $2.84 Million

2.61x Abigail: $2.61 Million

4.3x Imaginary: $3.11 Million (17 theaters)

1.88x Haunting in Venice (THU): $2.07 Million (17 theaters)

3.5x Last Voyage of Demeter: $2.62 Million (17 theaters)

 

Okay update, not super great. The concerning stat for me is with 1 day to go the MTC1 % is still super high, which does not bode incredibly well for this outside of urban chains. I'll give a T-1 Hour update tomorrow but if I was a betting man I'd go with sub-3 Million previews for now, if just under a little bit.

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	98	61	103	8358	1.23

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		51	36	49.51
Other chains:		52	25	50.49

 

Comps:

0.43x Garfield Movie (THU): $825k

0.32x IF: $560k

1.32x Ruby Gilman: $955k (12 theaters)

 

Ok, memes aside, this was a really good update. Gilman having such low sales makes it a bad comp because it'll fluctuate so much, but the other two comps also going up substantially is a great sign. ATP will be super low because of no PLFs and so many tickets being matinee sales. We'll see what tomorrow looks like

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/26/2024 at 6:16 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA

 

BORDERLANDS

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
365	501	75829	0.66%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-13

(0.399x) of Fall Guy $919k

(0.278x) of Furiosa $971k

Comps AVG: $945k

 

Not much going on. Looks like $1M+ previews, perhaps low to mid teens OW

FLORIDA

 

BORDERLANDS

 

Thursday 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
365	913	75829	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-8

(0.628x) of Fall Guy $1.44M

(0.384x) of Furiosa $1.34M

Comps AVG: $1.39M

 

Looks like $1.5M if i had to guess

[filmlover]

It Ends with Us is starting to give Fault in Our Stars vibes.

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Trap Friday (T-3) two days of sales

 

11 showtimes/246 tix sold (+82)

 

.26x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [13.14m]

.76x Longlegs Friday (T-3) [5.33m]

 

similar situation to Previews where there’s constraints, but on a smaller level. Longlegs had a fair level of over indexing so that comp is almost surely underestimating. Tomorrow I’ll hope for 75+ tickets sold

Trap Friday (T-2) 

 

11 showtimes/292 tix sold (+46)

 

.23x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-2) [11.63m]

Missed Longlegs Friday (T-2) []

 

Mid. Sales today were lower than yesterday.

[Flip]

On 7/30/2024 at 10:56 PM, Flip said:

Trap Previews (T-2)

 

8 showtimes/284 tix sold (+42)

 

.67x AQP Day One (T-2) [4.56m]

3.23x The Watchers (T-2) [3.23m]

.87x Longlegs (T-2) [2.61m]

 

Growth is stagnating since the prime time shows are near capacity so every comp dropped. Hopefully more shows are added because otherwise there’s not much room to grow.

Trap Previews (T-1)

 

8 showtimes/325 tix sold (+41)

 

.64x AQP Day One (T-1) [4.35m]

3.16x The Watchers (T-1) [3.16m]

.785x Longlegs (T-1) [2.355m]

 

there’s seat limits, but I still would’ve expected more growth (not just Trap but every movie I’m tracking had a bad day today). At the absolute minimum it should do 50 tickets by T-0.

Edited August 1 by Flip

[misterpepp]

Twisters is back in 4DX from Aug 30 to Sep 5 along with the original Twister. Tickets are on sale tomorrow.

[crazymoviekid]

13 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Trap: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 22 Tickets

Theater 2: 46 Tickets

 

Longlegs: $3.00M

AQP:DO: $8.11M

The Nun 2: $6.59M

Evil Dead Rise: $3.86M

Screaivi: $4.85M

KatC: $7.58M

M3GAN: $7.48M

Nope: $5.06M

 

Most comps went up. Mostly hovering around $4.5M with the out there $7M break. 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets

Theater 2: 17 Tickets

 

Longlegs: $3.90M

AQP:DO: $9.02M

The Nun 2: $9.47M

Evil Dead Rise: $8.86M

Screaivi: $5.06M

KatC: $6.60M

M3GAN: $6.68M

Nope: $4.11M

 

Wide range. Don't be surprised from $7M-$9M

Trap:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 38 Tickets

Theater 2: 56 Tickets

 

Longlegs: $3.03M

AQP:DO: $7.26M

The Nun 2: $6.46M

Evil Dead Rise: $4.80M

Screaivi: $4.83M

KatC: $8.02M

M3GAN: $4.24M

Nope: $4.344M

 

Feeling strong and consistent around $4.25M-$4.75M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 22 Tickets

Theater 2: 27 Tickets

 

Longlegs: $3.78M

AQP:DO: $8.56M

The Nun 2: $9.08M

Evil Dead Rise: $5.66M

Screaivi: $5.05M

KatC: $6.47M

M3GAN: $6.20M

Nope: $4.41M

 

Still hovering at either $8.75M or $5.75M

[crazymoviekid]

13 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Harold and the Damn Purple Crayon: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 13 Tickets

 

Garfield: $2.52M

IF: $1.88M

Migration: $2.50M

Ruby Gilman: $2.18M

Lyle: $4.31M

Super Pets: $.97M

 

Thanks to one singular party, comps are up to $2.5M, but don't hold your breath. $1M is looking much more comfortable for now. 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 0 Tickets

Theater 2: 5 Tickets

 

Garfield: $3.24M

IF: $.85M

Migration: $.59M

Ruby Gilman: $1.35M

Lyle: $3.56M

Super Pets: $.58M

 

idk, I'm giving this one another day for comps to settle.

Harold and the Damn Purple Crayon: 

 

 Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 20 Tickets

 

Garfield: $2.35M

IF: $2.26M

Migration: $2.54M

Ruby Gilman: $2.66M

Lyle: $6.33M

Super Pets: $.93M

 

Comps are still strong at $2.25M-$2.5M, but this just screams $1M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

Garfield: $3.02M

IF: $1.73M

Migration: $1.32M

Ruby Gilman: $2.26M

Lyle: $3.05M

Super Pets: $1.30M

 

In the $1.25M-$1.75M range

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

08/01/24

Trap - 85 tickets sold

Harold and the Purple Crayon - 13 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Trap

0.40x of Longlegs ($1.19M)

0.75x of Maxxxine ($2.38M)

0.87x of A Quiet Place: Day One ($5.90M)

1.63x of Argylle ($2.78M)

1.63x of Challengers ($2.62M)

1.81x of Monkey Man ($2.53M)

4.05x of Abigail ($4.05M)

5.67x of The Watchers ($5.67M)

AVERAGE: $3.39M

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon

0.02x of Despicable Me 4 ($493K)

0.04x of Inside Out 2 ($560K)

0.20x of The Garfield Movie ($391K)

0.39x of IF ($689K)

AVERAGE: $533K

 

Threw a whole host of comps at the wall for Trap since I'm not sure if it plays more like an original genre studio film (Argylle, Challengers, Monkey Man), an over-indexing summer horror (Longlegs, Maxxxine), or a walkup heavy under indexing horror (A Quiet Place: Day One, Abigail, The Watchers). Overall comp average with a mix of all 3 trends is a very solid $3.4M, as is the sale count. I think this could be decently walkup heavy and I like round numbers, so let's say $3.0-3.5M THU and a $23-28M OW. Harold on the other hand... . Best to let the numbers speak for themselves, although I did notice 4 likely blocked seats all in the bottom right at my Emagine for this (Which is more seats than this actually legit sold at the theater lmao, 4 v 3). $500Kish THU and around a $5.0-6.5M OW. 

[keysersoze123]

On 7/30/2024 at 10:03 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Trap MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 24234/186655 346178.15 1816 shows +3378 

Friday - 17737/302657 253881.18 2763 shows +4096

 

MTC2 Previews(T-2) - 6089/132163 79246.01 1487 shows +2664

 

I am thinking low to mid 50s finish at MTC1 with good walkups. 

Trap MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 30737/191887 436948.58 1861 shows +6503 

Friday - 23354/309915 333149.27 2813 shows +5617

 

MTC2 Previews(T-1) - 10117/146936 132981.63 1665 shows +4028

 

I will update MTC2 in the morning. Previews grew more than what I expected. I think even 60K+ finish is possible if it can get the horror walkups. That said there is also MNS factor that could make it more presales driven. Plus with hardly any PLF shows its ATP is low and I feel MNS would mean it would do better at big cities. So thinking it can miss 3m previews even with good finish at MTC1. 

 

Friday sales being below previews this late is not good. It could miss 20m. I am still hoping for low 20s finish. 

 

Edit: updated with MTC2 previews. Skew is big for sure. but MTC2 tends to have better walkups and hope it does well today. 

Edited August 1 by keysersoze123

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

It Ends with Us is starting to give Fault in Our Stars vibes.

Perhaps. I’ve mentioned before that the book is a genuine phenomenon among its demographic. That being said, I consider myself someone pretty well tapped in to the book crowd, and the book-tok crowd. The difference here being that It Ends With Us isn’t generally a well-regarded book amongst younger readers, and is moreso a “mom book”. And I can safely say as someone who was in the middle of all the hype both today and in 2014, that It Ends With Us has nowhere near the anticipation Fault did 10 years ago.

 

That being said, Fault did open to an adjusted 63.5M. If It Ends With Us can open to half that, that would be very very strong.

[Rorschach]

On 7/30/2024 at 11:36 PM, Rorschach said:

Trap (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

6 Thursday showings: 31/456 (6.8% sold) [+8]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $1.82M

Quiet Place: $3.01M

Longlegs: $2.07M

Avg: $2.3M

 

11 Friday showings: 35/845 (4.1% sold) [+13]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $4.16M

Quiet Place: $5.14M

Longlegs: $2.56M

Avg: $3.95M

 

Thurs + Fri: 66/1,301 (5.1% sold) [+21]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $5.81M

Quiet Place: $8.4M

Longlegs: $4.69M

Avg: $6.3M

Trap (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

6 Thursday showings: 46/456 (10.1% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $2.19M

Quiet Place: $3.26M

Longlegs: $2.12M

Avg: $2.52M

 

11 Friday showings: 78/845 (9.2% sold) [+43]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $9.28M

Quiet Place: $9.22M

Longlegs: $4.88M

Avg: $7.79M

 

Thurs + Fri: 124/1,301 (9.5% sold) [+58]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $9.73M

Quiet Place: $12.2M

Longlegs: $7.01M

Avg: $9.65M

[Rorschach]

On 7/30/2024 at 11:39 PM, Rorschach said:

Harold and the Purple Crayon (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

4 Thursday showings: 12/340 (3.5% sold) [+4]

 

Comps:

IF: $429K

Garfield: $722K

Avg: $576K

 

6 Friday showings: 12/510 (2.4% sold) [+5]

 

Comps:

IF: $1.51M

Garfield: $1.94M

Avg: $1.73M

 

Thurs + Fri: 24/850 (2.8% sold) [+9]

 

Comps: 

IF: $2.17M

Garfield: $2.81M

Avg: $2.49M

 

 

I guess you could call that a slight improvement from yesterday lol.

Harold and the Purple Crayon (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

4 Thursday showings: 39/340 (3.5% sold) [+27]

 

Comps:

IF: $1.24M

Garfield: $1.88M

Avg: $1.56M

 

6 Friday showings: 13/510 (2.4% sold) [+1]

 

Thurs + Fri: 52/850 (2.8% sold) [+28]

 

Comps: 

IF: $3.15M

Garfield: $4.86M

Avg: $4.01M

 

 

Lmao that Thursday to Friday ratio is something else.

[vafrow]

Trap, T-1, western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday previews 

 

Ticket sales of 53, but previews limited to one location with three showings. In isolation, it's not bad. It's 35% of A Quiet Place Day One, so MNS fans appear to be showing up.

 

Where only one location has previews, 4 of the 5 ended up getting the movie for the weekend, so demand is likely being pushed to other days.

 

It's too difficult to make a prediction on this one but hopefully the reviews are half decent.

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, DAJK said:

Perhaps. I’ve mentioned before that the book is a genuine phenomenon among its demographic. That being said, I consider myself someone pretty well tapped in to the book crowd, and the book-tok crowd. The difference here being that It Ends With Us isn’t generally a well-regarded book amongst younger readers, and is moreso a “mom book”. And I can safely say as someone who was in the middle of all the hype both today and in 2014, that It Ends With Us has nowhere near the anticipation Fault did 10 years ago.

 

That being said, Fault did open to an adjusted 63.5M. If It Ends With Us can open to half that, that would be very very strong.

FWIW I doubt it's opening that high. Matching the 5-day opening totals for The Help and Crazy Rich Asians ($35M each) seems like a more reasonable, and easily achievable, target.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/31/2024 at 8:59 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
It Ends With Us	T-8	Jax	5	23	22	224	2,608	8.59%
		Phx	6	25	7	96	2,715	3.54%
		Ral	7	24	32	335	1,842	18.19%
	Total		18	72	61	655	7,165	9.14%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-7	Jax	3	5	11	142	499	28.46%
		Phx	3	3	18	78	306	25.49%
		Ral	3	4	20	115	338	34.02%
	Total		9	12	49	335	1,143	29.31%
Trap	T-1	Jax	5	34	34	170	2,754	6.17%
		Phx	7	34	82	192	2,983	6.44%
		Ral	8	28	46	135	2,215	6.09%
	Total		20	96	162	497	7,952	6.25%

 

Trap T-1 adjusted comps*

 - Crawdads - .702x (1.67m)  +25%

 - Death on the Nile - 2x (2.16m)  +22%

 - Old - 2.46x (3.91m)  +53%

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.99x (2.88m)  +23%

 - Monkey Man - 1.92x (2.69m)  +23%

 - Last Night in Soho - 3.45x (2.74m)  +44%

 - Quiet Place 3 - .383x (2.5m)  

 - Beast - 2.99x (2.84m)  +47%

 - Longlegs - .67x (2.33m)  +47%

 - Black Phone - 1.16x (3.08m)  +34%

 

Size adjusted comp - 2.48m

 

Removed EA from comps and added a few that were more in line with yesterday's growth of +48%.  Old managed a +62% on Wednesday, but I'm expecting closer to +50%.  That would raise the avg comp to 2.56m.  Then a final day push will hopefully get to 2.75m

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-8 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.11x (9.67m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .734x (3.82m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 1.984x (3.66m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.457x (7.39m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .95x (4.79m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.142x (6.74m)

 

I didn't track Hunger Games, Mean Girls or Wonka and I only have final day for Don't Worry Darling.   Struggling to come up with comps for this.  I added a couple of movies that are close in total ticket sales and were fairly frontloaded.   Right now I'm thinking in the 6m ballpark

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
It Ends With Us	T-7	Jax	5	23	46	270	2,608	10.35%
		Phx	6	25	20	116	2,715	4.27%
		Ral	7	24	33	368	1,842	19.98%
	Total		18	72	99	754	7,165	10.52%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-6	Jax	3	5	16	158	499	31.66%
		Phx	3	3	15	93	306	30.39%
		Ral	3	4	15	130	338	38.46%
	Total		9	12	46	381	1,143	33.33%
Trap	T-0	Jax	5	36	57	227	2,930	7.75%
		Phx	7	39	78	270	3,391	7.96%
		Ral	8	30	108	243	2,363	10.28%
	Total		20	105	243	740	8,684	8.52%

 

Trap T-0 adjusted comps*

 - Crawdads - .766x (1.82m)  +25%

 - Death on the Nile - 2.19x (2.37m)  +22%

 - Old - 2.26x (3.59m)  +53%

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.01x (2.92m)  +23%

 - Monkey Man - 1.91x (2.67m)  +23%

 - Last Night in Soho - 4.16x (3.3m)  +44%

 - Quiet Place 3 - .399x (2.6m)  

 - Beast - 3.2x (3.03m)  +47%

 - Longlegs - .67x (2.32m)  +47%

 - Black Phone - 1.09x (2.91m)  +34%

 

Size adjusted comp - 2.54m

 

All but hit my target with a +49%!   Today will be a little trickier - Old posted a +101% while everything else was 71% or lower.  I missed Knock at the Cabin though, so that could have beat 71.  I'll set my goal at +65% which would finish comping around 2.7m

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-7 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.47x (10.52m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .781x (4.06m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 2.1x (3.87m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.615x (7.87m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .955x (4.81m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.254x (7.4m)

[excel1]

trap will be a wom sensation no doubt