Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[TMP]

So, Universal is totally gonna be the #1 studio for the foreseeable future, right? Even beyond the VOD pipeline plan they seem to have perfected for mid-budget films, they have Illumination, Nolan, Fast (insane OS at least) and upcoming potential hits like Five Nights at Freddy's, Gladiator 2's OS, Twisters Dom and Wicked. Next Peele could be a big hit too. Feel like Disney's the only real competition, but outside of Avatar 3 and Deadpool 3 idk if I see any hits

[MightyDargon]

Don't know where people got the HURR DURR OPPY IS NOTHING BUT TALKING thing from. Yes it's more dialogue heavy than most conventional Hollywood films of the 2020s but the actual onscreen Trinity test is utterly terrifying.

[Cheddar Please]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

I mean, Friday-to-Friday is down only 41% and Saturday increases are going to get stronger again (as weekdays return to diminished levels) throughout the month as schools start to go back.

Keep in mind these last two weekends are the most competition barbenheimer is gonna get for basically its entire run, last week we had Haunted Mansion stealing plfs and both movies still ended up with ~35% drops (subtracting Thursday previews). Meanwhile this weekend we had two 30m+ openers and yet Barbenheimer was still held to a mere low 40s drop. The upcoming weekends will be key in determining the ultimate trajectory of these movies, but I would not be surprised if holds only get better from here 

[Cheddar Please]

4 hours ago, stuart360 said:

A lot of people on here thought Mario was locked for 600mil too.

Mario's 600m hopes basically required it to match I2s at the time record setting weekdays with near TGM level weekend level holds, which it did manage for its first 4 weeks, yet it still fell behind, with GoTG3 stealing its screens being the final nail in the coffin. Barbie on the other hand has handily matched JWs post OW gross in the last two weeks with killer weekdays, and with no competition on the horizon anytime soon, has a much better chance of matching the necessary drops than Mario did

[The GOAT]

18 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Don't know where people got the HURR DURR OPPY IS NOTHING BUT TALKING thing from. Yes it's more dialogue heavy than most conventional Hollywood films of the 2020s but the actual onscreen Trinity test is utterly terrifying.

It was all talking, but Nolan made it look like a 3 hour montage. 

[Cheddar Please]

Also as a final note to this debate: Here are some post OW comparisons to Barbie at this point in time (Days 4-15):

The Avengers:  $209.8m

Incredibles 2:   $225m

Infinity War:     $244.3m

Black Panther:  $249.7m
Jurassic World: $251.7m

Barbie:             $261.4m

 

600m is LOCKED, end of story, and based on this trajectory, Barbie looks to make anywhere from 470m-520m post OW, which would imply a range of 630-680m, which means that while 650m is not locked, it is a very reasonable expectation at this point in time

Edited August 6, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[MightyDargon]

2 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

It was all talking, but Nolan made it look like a 3 hour montage. 

IT WAS NOT ALL TALKING. The bomb test literally is silent once the bomb goes off! Then you hear the loudest low-frequency sound you've ever heard in a theatre! Quit pretending this is the same thing as My Dinner With Andre.

[CJohn]

20.4M Barbie

11.2M Oppie

[MightyDargon]

Just now, CJohn said:

20.4M Barbie

11.2M Oppie

...I don't even get what that's supposed to represent.

[MightGuy]

8 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

...I don't even get what that's supposed to represent.

That they're using Dark Arts to remain that high?

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

...I don't even get what that's supposed to represent.

 

Heres a hint (i think):

 

[Krissykins]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

20.4M Barbie

11.2M Oppie

Great for both.

 

Curious for Meg & TMNT though since they’re the openers. 

[Brainbug]

15 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Also as a final note to this debate: Here are some post OW comparisons to Barbie at this point in time (Days 4-15):

The Avengers:  $209.8m

Incredibles 2:   $225m

Infinity War:     $244.3m

Black Panther:  $249.7m
Jurassic World: $251.7m

Barbie:             $261.4m

 

600m is LOCKED, end of story, and based on this trajectory, Barbie looks to make anywhere from 470m-520m post OW, which would imply a range of 630-680m, which means that while 650m is not locked, it is a very reasonable expectation at this point in time

 

I think 646M would be a beautiful final number for Barbie.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Great for both.

 

Curious for Meg & TMNT though since they’re the openers. 

Me too but he hasn't tweeted (Xed?) about them.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

I think 646M would be a beautiful final number for Barbie.

Personally thinking on 652.270.624 DOM total for it. It would just have to look up and see something beautiful.

[Eric Prime]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Me too but he hasn't tweeted (Xed?) about them.

No.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Personally thinking on 652.270.624 DOM total for it. It would just have to look up and see something beautiful.

 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Eric the Turtle said:

No.

X gon' give it to ya

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Barbenheimer DOM > TFA DOM seems more likely than not at this point but what about $1B DOM? Are we "yay" or "nay" on that? 

[M37]

5 minutes ago, XXR Dar-Benn said:

Barbenheimer DOM > TFA DOM seems more likely than not at this point but what about $1B DOM? Are we "yay" or "nay" on that? 

Nay at present, but also won’t be surprised if it happens.  Depends on how low the holds go late Aug into Sept - gonna have to see a few sub-30%s weeks to really target $1B.  Currently at ~$640/$320M