Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

No no no, we are not doing Jurassic World reclamation. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Dark Knight only gets it to 550, which considering Barbie will be at around 465-470 after a near 60mil 3rd weekend...... I think it'll get a bit further. 

Dark Knight made 2.62x off its second full week. Applying that to Barbie nets another ~$240M. I don’t know how you came up with $550M tbh 

[M37]

1 hour ago, 1Robert1 said:

  

yes it will make more than 630 if it will continue to break records, in my opinion expecting that something will continue breaking records is optimistic, and in your opinion realistic.

 

  

you are 100 percent right if it will have weekly drops around 40 percent it will be very close to 630, but last 5 days barbie was slightly worse than 40 percent, if it will have weekly drops around 42 percent it will finish with 610 mln. 

Because there was a mid week opening? By Wed of next week will be very much under 40%, and TMMT + Meg2 is by far the strongest competing over the next month, so will be running ahead of that pace until maybe Equalizer 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

No no no, we are not doing Jurassic World reclamation. 

 

Yes, we will. Theres no stopping it. The truth will always win!

[1Robert1]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Because there was a mid week opening? By Wed of next week will be very much under 40%, and TMMT + Meg2 is by far the strongest competing over the next month, so will be running ahead of that pace until maybe Equalizer 

no idea what mid week opening has to do with rest of it run, JW made another 80 mln after 4th week, and  barbie will need 100 mln. 25 percent more with worse calendar.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yes, we will. Theres no stopping it. The truth will always win!

 

I'm calling the FBI.

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

And star wars?. I think the nostalgia works with the right project whatever the decade was. Directors like Bay or Emmerich have big blockbusters but characters are not the strong part of these movies. 

When TFA came out, Boomers and Gen X still went to the movies. And the prequels had already introduced younger generations to Star Wars. 

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

When TFA came out, Boomers and Gen X still went to the movies. And the prequels had already introduced younger generations to Star Wars. 

 

Yeha good luck squeezing nostalgia for Rey out of fans. Not gonna happen. Gonna bomb worse than Indiana Joever.

Edited August 5, 2023 by Valonqar

[hasanahmad]

56 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is not that Oppenheimer falls off a cliff, it is about how Barbie didn't fall worse when by right that Barbie should burnt off its demand faster. The double the size of OW and weaker WOM didn't stop Barbie from legging out better than Oppen.

Are you new to box office stats ? 
 

 

Barbie has a wider age range when it comes to repeat viewings . It has a smaller run time , larger screens and lower age rating and it’s genre is more cinema friendly than Oppenheimer

 

. if both bring same percentage of repeat viewers, Barbie brings in higher gapped performances, if Oppenheimer has better percentage of repeat viewings , the gap statistically remains the same . 
 

 

when you consider Oppenheimer is rated r, is 3 hours . Is a talking in rooms biopic with minimal action , it is 100 million higher than what it should be if the directors name was not Nolan and reviews were not as good 

Edited August 5, 2023 by hasanahmad

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

How did Barbie managed to hold better than Oppenheimer when it is double the size of the OW? This is especially weird as Oppenheimer outperform Barbie in all word-of-mouth indicators. The OW doesn't necessarily mean a burn off in demand either.

 

This is like another Mario-AIR situation when Mario has a 10x OW bigger than AIR but still managed to hold better than AIR although both have similar strength in term of WOM.

 

The winner take all economics really hurt the small-medium film. A smaller OW was not compensated by the stronger hold no matter how good the WOM is.  Mario and Barbie basically hold like a movie that gross probably multiple times smaller. 

 

 

Barbie is appealing to a really wide audience and lots of Oppenheimer’s audience are very “online” and more likely to vote online, maybe skewing the WOM indicators? Same cinemascore. 

[dxmatrixdt]

i think Demeter should do really good.  it is probably the hottest most demanded story to come out of Dracula besides the story of Renfield, and bigger than Renfield at that.

[MrPink]

I think if not for Oppenheimer taking some screens, Barbie would have opened even bigger so it took sometime to catch up with spillover, and represented a larger effect than Oppenheimer and it’s constraint with IMAX screens

[CJohn]

I still can't believe they did a MEG movie with like 10-15 actual minutes of MEG action. Legs are gonna be atrocious. We needed 100M DOM for M3G dammit.

 

I need to see the China cut to see if it is like this as well. I have read it is longer than ours.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Barbie is going for Maverick I think. Scheduling until November is so bad, its going to have a long run. This is not AT&T era when WB was hell bent on putting movies on HBO at the earliest. Plus this is a pop culture phenomenon. Casual folks will see it in later weeks. My wife and daughter are seeing it now. We wont know how far it will go until late summer for sure. 

[upriser7]

I was sitting in a park yesterday with my gf and I saw an older couple (probably in their 50's) near us. They both were in pink outfits and were in a really good mood, smiling a ton. It looked like they were coming from watching Barbie just then. As they approached us, they started having a casual talk and suggested us to go and watch Barbie lol. They said it's lot of fun and an excellent movie. I was kinda surprised...it's rare to have such kinda casual talks with strangers about a movie

[Ororo Munroe]

Barbie needs better drops, starting next week. Kinda wild to say because the drops have been nothing to complain about. But more 40-42% drops won't get it to 650 and certainly not anywhere close to TGM. TGM's fourth weekend was just insane. Not even a sub 30s drop would be enough for Barbie to keep pace. 

[keysersoze123]

I am sure they added early BO for Turtles to the friday number exactly like MI7. So expecting a meh saturday increase for sure. 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, dxmatrixdt said:

i think Demeter should do really good.  it is probably the hottest most demanded story to come out of Dracula besides the story of Renfield, and bigger than Renfield at that.

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

In my completely unbiased opinion though, Dominion did its premise/story better, i.e. atleast you had dinosaur scenes pretty much right from the start. Also, you had Jeff Goldblum not giving a single shit about his lines the whole time.

 

For over 60 minutes in Meg 2, you have NOTHING ☹️

In my ubiased opinion Dominion is ass. I know I am in the minority but Fallen Kingdom is my second favorite Jurassic movie after the original. I love the second half of the movie at the mansion and the auction and the setup for the next movie was just awesome. JA Bayona does not get enough credit for his handling of that movie. And then Trevorow has to come back and do that shit the bed story line. Not joking he should never direct or write another big budget movie. No opinion on Meg 2 dont plan to see it. Thought  the first was decent, Could have been much better though.

[ringedmortality]

So is TMNT underperforming