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Weekend Thread (8/11-13) | Demeter 750K Previews

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1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:


The drop last week was insane. It’s all icing on the cake for the studio & Nolan at this point. I doubt they expected numbers like this before release. 

 

I just expected a better drop because there's virtually no big openers this weekend overseas.

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6 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

So 650M for barbara more about to happens than not 🥰

How so? A -36% drop on what was essentially an open weekend is … fine? 

 

If it were to hold that rate through rest of run, wound net another ~$240M more, for a total of ~$635. Fair to take the over on that straight extrapolation, but not sure how that translates to >$650M being >50% probability 

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7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I just expected a better drop because there's virtually no big openers this weekend overseas.

weather seems to be a big part in European markets. It had much better holds last weekend due to weather being bad whereas weather is lot better this weekend which has led to bigger drops

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4 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I saw Ninja Turtles this weekend with a good sized crowd so I was surprised that there was a belief that a rough second weekend drop was coming. Good to see that it went below 50%.


It’s not that great of a drop when you factor in the Wednesday opening day. I take the average of the 5-day opening and the opening Friday/Saturday/Sunday total to get a decent idea of a Wednesday movie with a Friday opening. In this case it would be $35M for opening weekend and a drop of around 55% on the 2nd weekend. 

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3 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

I think it's because everything is spelled out now. One of my go to examples is "The Fugitive", the movie just dives into the murder and goes from there. If it was made or remade now, we will definitely have 10-15 minutes setting up the story of Kimble and his wife before the murder so we can sympathize with them more. The movie decides to let us discover Kimble's personality as it unfolds but now we would need all of that to happen up front.

 

To give credit where it's due, it was one of film's editors, who were much deservingly nominated for Oscars, who came up with that. The first cut did have a full half hour of setting up the story. The editor turned the murder into the open credit sequence, and the director initially had to be talked into it. Maybe the problem with movies today is that they need better editors, and directors willing to listen.

 

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv-movies/tv-movie-features/the-fugitive-movie-oral-history-cast-director-1234789685/

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3 minutes ago, KC7 said:

 

To give credit where it's due, it was one of film's editors, who were much deservingly nominated for Oscars, who came up with that. The first cut did have a full half hour of setting up the story. The editor turned the murder into the open credit sequence, and the director initially had to be talked into it. Maybe the problem with movies today is that they need better editors, and directors willing to listen.

 

https://www.rollingstone.com/tv-movies/tv-movie-features/the-fugitive-movie-oral-history-cast-director-1234789685/

@Plain Old Tele

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2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:


It’s not that great of a drop when you factor in the Wednesday opening day. I take the average of the 5-day opening and the opening Friday/Saturday/Sunday total to get a decent idea of a Wednesday movie with a Friday opening. In this case it would be $35M for opening weekend and a drop of around 55% on the 2nd weekend. 

And to repeat what I said upthread: Super Pets dropped 52% in weekend 2 and still managed to leg out to nearly 3x OWeek (over 4x OW), which would put TMNT into $150M range. I don’t think it goes that high, but $120/$130M or so is easily in reach despite a “not that great of a drop”

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13 minutes ago, M37 said:

How so? A -36% drop on what was essentially an open weekend is … fine? 

 

If it were to hold that rate through rest of run, wound net another ~$240M more, for a total of ~$635. Fair to take the over on that straight extrapolation, but not sure how that translates to >$650M being >50% probability 

Because drops level off and become smaller through the run, and there's labor day coming up where the drop will be almost nothing. 650M+ is pretty much locked. I would say >90% there instead of 50.

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