Taylor Swift || The Eras Tour Concert Film - October 13, 2023 | Comes to Disney+ w/ 5 bonus songs

[Relevation]

14 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

This definitely isn’t hitting $200M OW and probably not even $150M. The most likely case at this point $100-125M.

$200M probably not happening but I still think the casual Tay fans could order their tickets late (due to no refunds) and fuel it to a bigger opening than Barbie

 

$140-170M feels like the range to me

 

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, Relevation said:

$200M probably not happening but I still think the casual Tay fans could order their tickets late (due to no refunds) and fuel it to a bigger opening than Barbie

 

$140-170M feels like the range to me

 

I think if that was going to happen we would start seeing the acceleration at this point. While some people will wait until the last minute to coalesce plans, most won’t. Especially not in her fandom. This isn’t to say there won’t be any walkups or ramp up in the final week, just that as a % of what has already sold it will look pretty weak.

[JonathanMB]

The 6pm start on Friday basically means this will have one full day less of showtimes than every other $200M+ opener (since most of them had Thursday previews that started around that time or even earlier), which I think makes reaching that mark extremely difficult, even with the inflated ATP. The only films that reach that mark if you remove their preview numbers are the top 3 (Endgame, No Way Home, Infinity War). 

[Bob Train]

I think late growth largely hinges on whether or not TS personally promotes it or not.

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I think late growth largely hinges on whether or not TS personally promotes it or not.

 

I think the tepid pace in pre-sales this past week, and yes it has been pretty meh, is one sign that promotion does indeed drive pre-sales to one degree or another.

 

There's been a school of thought that some films/brands "market themselves", and maybe that's true in some rare cases (Barbenheimer comes to mind  – though let's not kid ourselves that had a ton of traditional marketing that piggybacked on the viral marketing).  But we're getting a pretty good Case Study right now where we have a film without much traditional promotion and it's just... sitting there.  The lack of a buzzy world premiere/social media reactions is particularly hurting it right now in various comps.

 

Mind, I'm not completely sold on the idea of this still not having good walkups/last week of pre-sales as the availability of choice/good seats on Friday is still extremely limited.  On the other hand, Sat/Sun hasn't moved all that much (I might check again tonight to see what, if any, movement there's been).

 

That suggests the diehards aren't buying super late night tickets or front row/aisle seats, which is one of the things required to get a massive OW.  Or at least a sign it's in the cards.

 

The things we still don't know are:

• How many more screens will this get for Fri, especially with a 6pm start time.
• How much promotion will this actually get in the last week of pre-sales
• How much does the GA actually care about this?
• Do casual Taylor Swift fans really feel like shelling out $20+ for a concert film?
• And even if they do care, do they care enough to grab lackluster seats/times?

We can all have our own priors about the above, but I don't think we actually will know until pre-sales start rolling in next week and we see the day-of sales on Friday.

 

Still is time for this to turn around and reach some of the higher numbers some were thinking about a few weeks ago.  But I do think the $200m train has left the station and it's gonna take an incredible amount of change for it to become a possibility again. 

[Mojoguy]

The Biggest Concert film right now is Justin Beiber Never Say Never with $73m DOM and $26m OS. Why is Swift going to do so much more?

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

The Biggest Concert film right now is Justin Beiber Never Say Never with $73m DOM and $26m OS. Why is Swift going to do so much more?

 

A whirlwind of events just happening to take place at the same time. Her popularity is near its peak. Her tour in the US just finished. She's been pumping out her old albums as a point of retaking her music. etc etc etc

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

The Biggest Concert film right now is Justin Beiber Never Say Never with $73m DOM and $26m OS. Why is Swift going to do so much more?

It has already passed Never Say Never worldwide from presales alone...And it still has a week left.

[jeffthehat]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

I think the tepid pace in pre-sales this past week, and yes it has been pretty meh, is one sign that promotion does indeed drive pre-sales to one degree or another.

 

There's been a school of thought that some films/brands "market themselves", and maybe that's true in some rare cases (Barbenheimer comes to mind  – though let's not kid ourselves that had a ton of traditional marketing that piggybacked on the viral marketing).  But we're getting a pretty good Case Study right now where we have a film without much traditional promotion and it's just... sitting there.  The lack of a buzzy world premiere/social media reactions is particularly hurting it right now in various comps.

 

Mind, I'm not completely sold on the idea of this still not having good walkups/last week of pre-sales as the availability of choice/good seats on Friday is still extremely limited.  On the other hand, Sat/Sun hasn't moved all that much (I might check again tonight to see what, if any, movement there's been).

 

That suggests the diehards aren't buying super late night tickets or front row/aisle seats, which is one of the things required to get a massive OW.  Or at least a sign it's in the cards.

 

The things we still don't know are:

• How many more screens will this get for Fri, especially with a 6pm start time.
• How much promotion will this actually get in the last week of pre-sales
• How much does the GA actually care about this?
• Do casual Taylor Swift fans really feel like shelling out $20+ for a concert film?
• And even if they do care, do they care enough to grab lackluster seats/times?

We can all have our own priors about the above, but I don't think we actually will know until pre-sales start rolling in next week and we see the day-of sales on Friday.

 

Still is time for this to turn around and reach some of the higher numbers some were thinking about a few weeks ago.  But I do think the $200m train has left the station and it's gonna take an incredible amount of change for it to become a possibility again. 

 

This has been a hard one to predict for sure. It's been wild to see such little promo when this has/had a chance at huge numbers. If Taylor doesn't post about it again, feels like the Oct 11th premiere is the final shot it has at breaking out. But I'm not even sure if she'll attend that lol.

 

The Fri/Sat split will def be interesting. Hard for me to believe that it behaves like a normal Fri/Sat when there are gonna be so many more shows. But the presale growth at this point suggests there's little interest outside of the die hards, so it's possible. The two comps I've been looking at are Hannah Montana World Tour (high capacity) and BTS Yet to Come (recent). They average ~3.6 IM. Never Say Never was a lot worse, but it had Friday matinees. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by jeffthehat

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

The Biggest Concert film right now is Justin Beiber Never Say Never with $73m DOM and $26m OS. Why is Swift going to do so much more?

 

Justin Bieber in 2011 only had fans from 11 to 20. A very limited and specific audience. TS has 20 years of career, still really popular in the gen Z Tik Tok generation but also in the young millennias so her target is from 14 to 40. 

Even now JB wouldn't make these numbers cause he's not particulary know to make incredible live shows. 

Not always having hits makes you a touring force. Just think to Coldplay and maroon 5. Maybe Maroon 5 have more hits than Coldplay but Coldplay makes 170 Stadium shows tours, Maroon 5 can't sell out arenas. Probably this cause the world of mouth in the years has been Coldplay make spectacular live shows while Maroon 5 don't. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by vale9001

[vale9001]

25 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

 

This has been a hard one to predict for sure. It's been wild to see such little promo when this has/had a chance at huge numbers. If Taylor doesn't post about it again, feels like the Oct 11th premiere is the final shot it has at breaking out. But I'm not even sure if she'll attend that lol.

 

The Fri/Sat split will def be interesting. Hard for me to believe that it behaves like a normal Fri/Sat when there are gonna be so many more shows. But the presale growth at this point suggests there's little interest outside of the die hards, so it's possible. The two comps I've been looking at are Hannah Montana World Tour (high capacity) and BTS Yet to Come (recent). They average ~3.6 IM. Never Say Never was a lot worse, but it had Friday matinees. 

 

Of course She will attend the première of her movie 😆

[Jsmitty]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I think the tepid pace in pre-sales this past week, and yes it has been pretty meh, is one sign that promotion does indeed drive pre-sales to one degree or another.

 

There's been a school of thought that some films/brands "market themselves", and maybe that's true in some rare cases (Barbenheimer comes to mind  – though let's not kid ourselves that had a ton of traditional marketing that piggybacked on the viral marketing).  But we're getting a pretty good Case Study right now where we have a film without much traditional promotion and it's just... sitting there.  The lack of a buzzy world premiere/social media reactions is particularly hurting it right now in various comps.

 

Mind, I'm not completely sold on the idea of this still not having good walkups/last week of pre-sales as the availability of choice/good seats on Friday is still extremely limited.  On the other hand, Sat/Sun hasn't moved all that much (I might check again tonight to see what, if any, movement there's been).

 

That suggests the diehards aren't buying super late night tickets or front row/aisle seats, which is one of the things required to get a massive OW.  Or at least a sign it's in the cards.

 

The things we still don't know are:

• How many more screens will this get for Fri, especially with a 6pm start time.
• How much promotion will this actually get in the last week of pre-sales
• How much does the GA actually care about this?
• Do casual Taylor Swift fans really feel like shelling out $20+ for a concert film?
• And even if they do care, do they care enough to grab lackluster seats/times?

We can all have our own priors about the above, but I don't think we actually will know until pre-sales start rolling in next week and we see the day-of sales on Friday.

 

Still is time for this to turn around and reach some of the higher numbers some were thinking about a few weeks ago.  But I do think the $200m train has left the station and it's gonna take an incredible amount of change for it to become a possibility again. 

 

Totally agree that a 200M OW has no chance at this stage. Hard to know even a range though as we haven’t seen this hype in the genre before. I’m currently sitting my guess in the 125-140 OW window. What would you say the odds are of a >200M domestic total are considering the likely massive week over week drops?

[XXR & Friends]

43 minutes ago, Jsmitty said:

 

Totally agree that a 200M OW has no chance at this stage. Hard to know even a range though as we haven’t seen this hype in the genre before. I’m currently sitting my guess in the 125-140 OW window. What would you say the odds are of a >200M domestic total are considering the likely massive week over week drops?

 

2nd weekend presales are relatively strong, and since it's only playing on the weekends it might not be quite as massive of a drop as some expect. Right now my current expectations are something like 120-45-22-13 for the first four weekends. 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

The Biggest Concert film right now is Justin Beiber Never Say Never with $73m DOM and $26m OS. Why is Swift going to do so much more?

 

Imagine, for a moment, what would have happened if Michael Jackson or Madonna had a concert film at the peak of their popularity in the age of multiplexes and PLFs and everything else.

 

That's why this is going to do so much more.

 

(also ticket prices are a teeny tiny bit higher for this, I would expect)

Edited October 6, 2023 by Porthos

[Bob Train]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Imagine, for a moment, what would have happened if Michael Jackson or Madonna had a concert film at the peak of their popularity in the age of multiplexes and PLFs and everything else.

 

That's why this is going to do so much more.

Also, Eras tour is easily the highest-grossing tour ever. And has dominated cultural conversation in a way say Bieber's concert didn't.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Bob Train

[Porthos]

Just now, Bob Train said:

Also, Eras tour is easily the highest-grossing tour ever, unlike Justin Bieber.

 

Hence the comparisons to MJ and Madonna.

[Bob Train]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Hence the comparisons to MJ and Madonna.

True. The MJ concert was released after he died, meaning he was obviously unable to promote it, and was something of a documentary/BTS reel rather than a true concert movie like this is.

[Arlborn]

To any Swifties out there, why is there so little advertising of it in the week leading up to its release even as we watch the pace not picking up? Any theories? It just feels like money left on the table.

[Morieris]

Wonder if her team feel they don't need to advertise / the continuous press of her and the football player is enough.

 

I did see an ad during Shark Tank yesterday, but that's been it. I probably would have forgotten it was out until it hit if not for being online.

[filmlover]

tbh it's very unlikely that there's anyone on the fence as to whether they want to see this or not. Swift has a huge audience, but anyone who isn't a fan of her music is unlikely to be swayed into seeing a recording of a live concert of hers. Most obvious explanation as to why the sales have remained stagnant IMO.