It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

[Pinacolada]

I'm curious why A Haunting in Venices international numbers for the week haven't come in yet. Wanna see that cross $120m.

 

Should be at at least $110m now

[Bob Train]

11 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I'm curious why A Haunting in Venices international numbers for the week haven't come in yet. Wanna see that cross $120m.

 

Should be at at least $110m now

It's at $110.9m per BOM

[Pinacolada]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

It's at $110.9m per BOM

Oh nice, guess those numbers came in since last I looked

[SaltyPistola]

People always underestimate GA's love for horror and more specifically possession horror. Believer is gonna make a clean profit, and when all is said and done with this trilogy, (box office, merch, licensing, home video) Universal will easily make back their $400 million investment imo. 

[MovieMan89]

Haunted mansion prob woulda been a mini breakout this month. Like I said, ridiculously nonsensical to release that in August 

[SaltyPistola]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Haunted mansion prob woulda been a mini breakout this month. Like I said, ridiculously nonsensical to release that in August 

Immensely stupid. The streaming boom really fucked with all these studios' heads. Beyond cooked

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Haunted mansion prob woulda been a mini breakout this month. Like I said, ridiculously nonsensical to release that in August 

 

With FNAF breaking out as it is?  Highly doubtful.  

 

Now maybe Haunted Mansion's presence alone would have hampered screens and possibly media coverage for Five Nights at Freddy's.  But given FNAF has been nearly an entirely fan driven thing I just think it would have sucked all the oxygen out of the room when it comes to GA-friendly Halloween-related discussion.   Especially given that Saw X and the Exorcist reboot monopolized the hard end of the horror spectrum.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

I would also add that Nope was released in the nearly same time period the year before as Haunted Mansion was this year (July 22nd, 2022 vs July 28th, 2023).  And Nope did very well at that spot.  Much better than Haunted Mansion at least.

 

Given how crowded Sep/Oct looked for this genre even before we knew the results (or at least strong early pre-sales with FNAF), why should have Haunted Mansion tried to fight with:

 

Nun II  

A Haunting in Venice

Saw X

The Exorcist: Believer

Five Nights at Freddy's

 

Do folks really think Haunted Mansion would have done better if it, say, flipped with A Haunting in Venice?  And even if it did, wouldn't that hurt Venice?

 

Maybe it would have helped at the edges.  But "mini-breakout"?  I remain skeptical.

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Porthos

[MovieMan89]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

With FNAF breaking out as it is?  Highly doubtful.  

 

Now maybe Haunted Mansion's presence alone would have hampered screens and possibly media coverage for Five Nights at Freddy's.  But given FNAF has been nearly an entirely fan driven thing I just think it would have sucked all the oxygen out of the room when it comes to GA-friendly Halloween-related discussion.   Especially given that Saw X and the Exorcist reboot monopolized the hard end of the horror spectrum.

I don’t see the correlation? Haunted Mansion would be purely a family driven thing. Family horror at Halloween tends to get underrepresented yet does well when Hollywood does remember 

[Bob Train]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t see the correlation? Haunted Mansion would be purely a family driven thing. Family horror at Halloween tends to get underrepresented yet does well when Hollywood does remember 

FNAF fills family horror slot this year. Haunted Mansion should have released in Sept/Oct though, I agree.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Bob Train

[Porthos]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t see the correlation? Haunted Mansion would be purely a family driven thing. Family horror at Halloween tends to get underrepresented yet does well when Hollywood does remember 

 

The point being that there's only so much attention to go around.  What weekend would it have been slotted in?  Which film would it tried to have bully away?

 

Maaaaaaybe put it in The Creator's place since it's part of Disney's corporate umbrella even though that's still a month away from Halloween.  But I just think the overall indifference to the film means it wouldn't have mattered when it was released.

[AniNate]

Honestly it probably fares better overall as a holiday streaming/VOD release. Disney doesn't just care about box office.

 

Also this gives them more time to blitz market Wish, which I care about a lot more than Haunted Mansion

 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by AniNate

[MovieMan89]

I think there was a default Halloween boost to be had by HM being the only real family spooky season film at the box office during spooky season. Opposed to streaming where I don’t think streaming has enough pull now to get “default” boosts unless something catches on and becomes a big streaming hit (HM is not to my knowledge). Even something crappy like Adams Family animated film did well at the box office during halloween season a few years ago.
 

Anecdotally, I did have a friend who is very casual moviegoer mention they would have seen HM w their kids during Halloween, but had no desire to during back to school time August. 

Edited October 17, 2023 by MovieMan89

[JimmyB]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think there was a default Halloween boost to be had by HM being the only real family spooky season film at the box office during spooky season. Opposed to streaming where I don’t think streaming has enough pull now to get “default” boosts unless something catches on and becomes a big streaming hit (HM is not to my knowledge). Even something crappy like Adams Family animated film did well at the box office during halloween season a few years ago.
 

Anecdotally, I did have a friend who is very casual moviegoer mention they would have seen HM w their kids during Halloween, but had no desire to during back to school time August. 

What live action family horror movies do well during "spooky" season. Goosebumps 2 did 46 million domestic. The House with a Clock in Its Walls did 68m domestic. 

 

A poorly reviewed, received movie like Haunted Mansion isnt making anymore money if it released during "spooky" season. Actually, HM probably benefited from the summer weekdays when kids were off of school.

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think there was a default Halloween boost to be had by HM being the only real family spooky season film at the box office during spooky season. Opposed to streaming where I don’t think streaming has enough pull now to get “default” boosts unless something catches on and becomes a big streaming hit (HM is not to my knowledge). Even something crappy like Adams Family animated film did well at the box office during halloween season a few years ago.
 

Anecdotally, I did have a friend who is very casual moviegoer mention they would have seen HM w their kids during Halloween, but had no desire to during back to school time August. 

 

I think the real point of contention between us is how much Five Nights at Freddy's covers "family spooky season" as it absolutely seems to have a stranglehold on the teen and possibly tween market. 

 

I get what you're saying, but sometimes calendar is just too crowded. I fully admit to hindsight bias here as I never would have expected FNAF to (look to) break out as much as it appears to be doing. But knowing what we know, I think HM would have withered and died nearly as much as it did in its original slot with maybe something of a seasonal boost, anecdotal comments from friends notwithstanding.

 

Also, let's not forget that The Addams Family 2 only did 17.3/56.5 in Oct '21.  If you want to say "back end of COVID concerns", I'd actually agree.  But that had to face off against LTBC and got smoked (same weekend, no less).  Meanwhile Haunted Mansion pulled in (so far) 24.1/67.5.  In fact, as I think about it a parallel between LTBC and FNAF isn't too hard to draw.  If so, then TAF 2 dying on the vine despite being the "family spooky season" film entrant doesn't exactly seem to argue in Haunted Mansion's favor.

 

Sometimes, or maybe even most of the time, calendar can only do so much.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Bob Train]

Weekdays are gonna be 😴 until Thursday. I guess Exorcist becomes #1 again.

[SaltyPistola]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I would also add that Nope was released in the nearly same time period the year before as Haunted Mansion was this year (July 22nd, 2022 vs July 28th, 2023).  And Nope did very well at that spot.  Much better than Haunted Mansion at least.

 

Given how crowded Sep/Oct looked for this genre even before we knew the results (or at least strong early pre-sales with FNAF), why should have Haunted Mansion tried to fight with:

 

Nun II  

A Haunting in Venice

Saw X

The Exorcist: Believer

Five Nights at Freddy's

 

Do folks really think Haunted Mansion would have done better if it, say, flipped with A Haunting in Venice?  And even if it did, wouldn't that hurt Venice?

 

Maybe it would have helped at the edges.  But "mini-breakout"?  I remain skeptical.

 

I'm not sure Nope is applicable here because I think it's less to with horror - which can do well any time of the year - and more to do with Haunted Mansion itself. The quality and WOM was mediocre at best, so no one is going to waste their money on a family friendly spooky ghost movie in July. Opening it around Saw X would have at least given it a boost as the only family "horror" film in the lead up to Halloween, similar to Nightmare before Christmas or Hocus Pocus. It definitely would have benefited from the season and Friday the 13th just like Believer has. 

 

And while it would have had competition with Five Nights at Freddie's, I think there is a distinct difference between a Disney made family film and a horror film that while, 100% appeals to children, is almost certainly made with a more adult audience in mind. I think going off of the trailers a lot of parents would have picked HM as it seems way less violent. I don't know about mini breakout hit, but it almost certainly would have done better I reckon. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, SaltyPistola said:

I'm not sure Nope is applicable here because I think it's less to with horror - which can do well any time of the year - and more to do with Haunted Mansion itself. The quality and WOM was mediocre at best, so no one is going to waste their money on a family friendly spooky ghost movie in July. Opening it around Saw X would have at least given it a boost as the only family "horror" film in the lead up to Halloween, similar to Nightmare before Christmas or Hocus Pocus. It definitely would have benefited from the season and Friday the 13th just like Believer has. 

 

Didn't exactly help The Addams Family 2 though, which I brought up in a later post.  That barely made it past the mid-50s total.  

 

5 minutes ago, SaltyPistola said:

And while it would have had competition with Five Nights at Freddie's, I think there is a distinct difference between a Disney made family film and a horror film that while, 100% appeals to children, is almost certainly made with a more adult audience in mind. I think going off of the trailers a lot of parents would have picked HM as it seems way less violent. I don't know about mini breakout hit, but it almost certainly would have done better I reckon. 

 

I just don't think one can wish away the crowded calendar though.  Haunted Mansion was gonna make a (it turns out futile) play for PLF screens.  That blacks out this upcoming weekend.  Last weekend of September was already covered by The Creator, which takes it out of the running opening against Saw X.  Did have the first weekend of Oct, as it wasn't known that The Exorcist would flee to that weekend with TET emerging, so maaaaybe there.

 

So we have to shuffle the calendar. Either take out The Creator or A Haunting in Venice.  And where do we move those films?  It's not as simple as "oh, just release Haunted Mansion in Sep/Oct" as you have to juggle not only your own films in that time period but have to guesstimate how others would do.

 

But I also want to know how much more are we talking about here?  Haunted Mansion opened to 24m.  Are we saying 5m more OW?  10m more?  15m?  Got to tell ya, I remain skeptical at anything above mid-30s, especially since we have a recent direct data point in TAF2.  And then how much of the legs get eaten and are just moved around?  And what gets taken away from the movies Disney did release here if they make less elsewhere in the calendar.

 

=======

 

I guess I am saying: BEWARE HINDSIGHT BIAS.

 

IMO Haunted Mansion did relatively "meh" where it was released.  I am mostly not at all convinced it would have done appreciably better in Sep/Oct, given said meh reaction to the film.  Ultimately "not appreciably better" is what my argument boils down to.

 

If the reaction to the film had been stronger, sure, maybe.  As it is, just don't see it.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

With FNAF breaking out as it is?  Highly doubtful.  

 

Now maybe Haunted Mansion's presence alone would have hampered screens and possibly media coverage for Five Nights at Freddy's.  But given FNAF has been nearly an entirely fan driven thing I just think it would have sucked all the oxygen out of the room when it comes to GA-friendly Halloween-related discussion.   Especially given that Saw X and the Exorcist reboot monopolized the hard end of the horror spectrum.

Freddy's screen allocation has been tepid so far. Still it has sold so strong, I expect that to be resolved. I am with you on Haunted Mansion doing not so great in the shadow of Freddy's. I am slowly starting to think Freddy's is going to out open Eras. Friday sales are crazy strong and pace this far out is great. Its really a mini Barbie at this point. 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Freddy's screen allocation has been tepid so far. Still it has sold so strong, I expect that to be resolved. I am with you on Haunted Mansion doing not so great in the shadow of Freddy's. I am slowly starting to think Freddy's is going to out open Eras. Friday sales are crazy strong and pace this far out is great. Its really a mini Barbie at this point. 

Truly don't get it. Like Mario and Barbie get the blowup and popularity for those. But this? Whatever is good for the box office I guess.