It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

[Spidey Freak]

12 hours ago, Maggie said:

The Taylor concert numbers WW prove she's more American centric than her fans claim

 

I mean, how have we forgotten she started off as Country? Ofc her fanbase is DOM heavy

 

The fact that she has so seamlessly transitioned to mainstream pop is an impressive feat in itself.

[Krissykins]

I just watched Haunted Mansion on Sunday and it’s maybe the most boring movie of the year IMO. I don’t think it would have done well anywhere. 

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Truly don't get it. Like Mario and Barbie get the blowup and popularity for those. But this? Whatever is good for the box office I guess. 

 

emoviefan's*  horrifying realization:

* among a few others on this board.

 

Me in response to said horrifying realization:

 

[Dale Cooper]

1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

I mean, how have we forgotten she started off as Country? Ofc her fanbase is DOM heavy

 

The fact that she has so seamlessly transitioned to mainstream pop is an impressive feat in itself.

And also, she's only US centric in the sense that she is more popular in US than anywhere else (on average). She's still the biggest artist right now internationally as well.

 

It's not like, say, Star Wars that while pretty much the most popular domestic ever is handily beat by contemporary big movies internationally.

[M37]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I think the real point of contention between us is how much Five Nights at Freddy's covers "family spooky season" as it absolutely seems to have a stranglehold on the teen and possibly tween market. 

 

I get what you're saying, but sometimes calendar is just too crowded. I fully admit to hindsight bias here as I never would have expected FNAF to (look to) break out as much as it appears to be doing. But knowing what we know, I think HM would have withered and died nearly as much as it did in its original slot with maybe something of a seasonal boost, anecdotal comments from friends notwithstanding.

 

Also, let's not forget that The Addams Family 2 only did 17.3/56.5 in Oct '21.  If you want to say "back end of COVID concerns", I'd actually agree.  But that had to face off against LTBC and got smoked (same weekend, no less).  Meanwhile Haunted Mansion pulled in (so far) 24.1/67.5.  In fact, as I think about it a parallel between LTBC and FNAF isn't too hard to draw.  If so, then TAF 2 dying on the vine despite being the "family spooky season" film entrant doesn't exactly seem to argue in Haunted Mansion's favor.

 

Sometimes, or maybe even most of the time, calendar can only do so much.

I think the difference with a late Sept or October release for HM would have primarily been in the legs, as a family Spooky Season option as people circle back in subsequent weeks, instead of withering in the summer when after the initial interest, families knew it would be on D+ for Halloween. For example, despite all this competition, Nun II has already reached 2x OWeek, same as HM, with the former still have a good amount of gas left in the tank, and Paw Patrol could make a 3x OWeek run as the only family option in the market

 

But IMO that doesn't mean breakout, probably more along the lines of Goosebumps (~$80M) rather than the sub $70M its going to finish with. Disney basically "bought" attention to and content for their D+ service by foregoing that back end grossing potential with an out-of-season release. That's a business choice, which does diminish BO$, but not necessarily revenue overall

[filmlover]

Haunted Mansion '23 was aggressively mediocre. I doubt it would've been a breakout hit with any release date.

[Zakiyyah6]

The Haunted Mansion would have flopped in October as well. That film was never going to be a hit. Nobody cares about that IP beyond the theme park. If people cared then they would have supported the Eddie Murphy version and they didn't. 

[Wandavisionlover0924]

I still don't understand why they created that reboot. The original wasn't popular or seen amazing reviews. I don't think it's a halloween classic either. 

[DTP]

4 hours ago, Wandavisionlover0924 said:

I still don't understand why they created that reboot. The original wasn't popular or seen amazing reviews. I don't think it's a halloween classic either. 

Disney can't stop themselves from trying to remake everything it seems. 

[MovieMan89]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I think the real point of contention between us is how much Five Nights at Freddy's covers "family spooky season" as it absolutely seems to have a stranglehold on the teen and possibly tween market. 

 

I get what you're saying, but sometimes calendar is just too crowded. I fully admit to hindsight bias here as I never would have expected FNAF to (look to) break out as much as it appears to be doing. But knowing what we know, I think HM would have withered and died nearly as much as it did in its original slot with maybe something of a seasonal boost, anecdotal comments from friends notwithstanding.

 

Also, let's not forget that The Addams Family 2 only did 17.3/56.5 in Oct '21.  If you want to say "back end of COVID concerns", I'd actually agree.  But that had to face off against LTBC and got smoked (same weekend, no less).  Meanwhile Haunted Mansion pulled in (so far) 24.1/67.5.  In fact, as I think about it a parallel between LTBC and FNAF isn't too hard to draw.  If so, then TAF 2 dying on the vine despite being the "family spooky season" film entrant doesn't exactly seem to argue in Haunted Mansion's favor.

 

Sometimes, or maybe even most of the time, calendar can only do so much.

 

 

My disagreement is that FBAF is a teen thing not a family one. HM would be gunning for kids, even w the pg13. I’m not sure how we can say cal was too crowded either when we’ve faced far far far more crowded stretches on the cal over the past decade. All that really ever matters is direct comp. I don’t think HM had any. As for how much more… around 2x the WW total Id say. Still a bomb, but twice the money is twice the money and avoid biggest bombs of all time territory at least. 

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

My disagreement is that FBAF is a teen thing not a family one. HM would be gunning for kids, even w the pg13. I’m not sure how we can say cal was too crowded either when we’ve faced far far far more crowded stretches on the cal over the past decade. All that really ever matters is direct comp. I don’t think HM had any. As for how much more… around 2x the WW total Id say. Still a bomb, but twice the money is twice the money and avoid biggest bombs of all time territory at least. 

 

You think calendar alone gets it an extra $115m WW?

 

I am... No I am not even going to say "I am skeptical."  Just gonna say "flat out disagree." 

 

(again, most recent direct comp is TAF 2 and that did 110m... WW) 

 

Not gonna conjure up that much extra interest in the film simply because it was released in Sep/Oct.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Porthos

[Day and Date The Best]

FNAF better get an IMAX release. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Day and Date The Best

[Bobzaruni]

On 10/16/2023 at 2:22 PM, Maggie said:

The Taylor concert numbers WW prove she's more American centric than her fans claim

That's like saying Bieber was American centric because it was 75/25 when that's not at all the case, international audiences just aren't into this kind of experience seemingly. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

You think calendar alone gets it an extra $115m WW?

 

I am... No I am not even going to say "I am skeptical."  Just gonna say "flat out disagree." 

 

(again, most recent direct comp is TAF 2 and that did 110m... WW) 

 

Not gonna conjure up that much extra interest in the film simply because it was released in Sep/Oct.

And I disagree. No one cares about a Halloween vibe film like that in the summer. Standard adult aimed horror maybe, but HM has a definite Halloween feel to it. Literally the whole point of its existence is to release during spooky season. Frozen would have made maybe 1/2 of what it did in the summer. Or the Santa Clause, etc. You release certain kinds of films at certain times or don’t greenlight them. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

And I disagree. No one cares about a Halloween vibe film like that in the summer. Literally the whole point of its existence is to release during spooky season. Frozen would have made maybe 1/2 of what it did in the summer. You release certain kinds of films at certain times or don’t greenlight them. 

 

But my point is that simply being released in the so-called "spooky season" doesn't mean any guaranteed level of success, as recently seen by The Addams Family 2 cartoon.

 

Maybe, may-be, if folks had come away and said about Haunted Mansion "Fun little film, shame it wasn't released in October."  But the most I've generally heard about it is, and I quote:

 

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

Haunted Mansion '23 was aggressively mediocre. 

 

(though I would have called it "aggressively average")

 

I fail to see how you get an extra 115m WW for it.  I mean, I'm sure there's people out there who love it, but near as I can tell its overall reception was "Ehhhh, it was fine."

 

That doesn't scream "mini-breakout" to me.

 

Now maybe it'll get reassessed in the fullness of time. But I think my biggest stumbling block to this whole conversation is:  I haven't actually seen all that much that suggests this was an overlooked film by the masses.  

 

It has an 84% verified audience score over at RT.

6.1 over at IMDB.

It got a B+ Cinemascore.

 

Now I know how useless all of the above is, but it's most of all we got unless we want to look at legs (2.8x).

 

It's just... I just don't see why folks would have shown up that much more.  

 

I'm willing to say it could have done better.  But 115m WW better?  Families got other options for their entertainment dollars nowadays.  

 

A whole lot would have had to go right for it to even sniff that, IMO.  Probably starting with FNAF and TET not sucking out so much attention out of the market.

 

(this is one of those things that can't be falsified so might have to leave it with most of these comments)

 

[MovieMan89]

Fine, my phrasing of mini breakout was poorly worded, but the point was I think it does twice the gross or so in that slot. That’s where it belonged and I do think there is a default boost for family Halloween fare. Everything post covid and pre NWH is a moot point at the box office, I really don’t know why that’s still something we go round and round on here?
 

If it had actually been well liked, then we could talk about maybe it could have been a true breakout at Halloween. As the big Disney Halloween release with no direct comp though (I don’t think kids are FNAF audience), no reason to miss 200 ww. Of course Disneys budget totally screwed it either way. 

[JustLurking]

Haunted Mansion wouldn't do twice as much what it did on any slot, and I am frankly skeptical about there being actual demand for "family horror fare" to begin with (when the hell was the last breakout of this...uh...genre, anyway?).

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Haunted Mansion wouldn't do twice as much what it did on any slot, and I am frankly skeptical about there being actual demand for "family horror fare" to begin with (when the hell was the last breakout of this...uh...genre, anyway?).

Just off the top of my head there’s Hotel Transylvania 1 and 2, The Adamms Family and Goosebumps from the past decade that all did much better than HM all in - surprise surprise - the last sep to oct release slots. Then you had HT3 smartly pivot to a “summer vacation” angle they put right in the title to release one in the summer. 

[MovieMan89]

Ironically enough, Disney released the first HM movie at an equally wtf??? time of year (thanksgiving lolol) and that bombed too. 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Haunted Mansion wouldn't do twice as much what it did on any slot, and I am frankly skeptical about there being actual demand for "family horror fare" to begin with (when the hell was the last breakout of this...uh...genre, anyway?).

 

(grrr... accidentally deleted a post)

 

Well, depends on whether a sequel is considered a breakout or not, but have Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019) at 37/114/492.  But that has the advantage of Star Power and a more internationally friendly concept than Haunted Mansion.

 

Aside from that?  If I squint for a given definiton of "breakout" I would point to the first The Addams Family (2019) cartoon at 30/100/203.

 

The thing is, I do agree with MM89 when it comes to the general concept.   Just not the example they're using here.  Too much competition, both in-studio when it comes to scheduling, and general attention.

 

(I'd be even more sympathetic to the argument if it wasn't for FNAF and TET being meme monsters, but that angle of the conversation is dead horse)