It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

[JustLurking]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Just off the top of my head there’s Hotel Transylvania 1 and 2, The Adamms Family and Goosebumps from the past decade that all did much better than HM all in - surprise surprise - the last sep to oct release slots. Then you had HT3 smartly pivot to a “summer vacation” angle they put right in the title to release one in the summer. 

Hotel transilvanya is supposed to be...horror? Eh, ok...Goosebumps didn't do "much better" than HM...it was just 20% higher domestically, and you can't blame the slot for shit international split...even addams family 1 didn't do double HM domestically, and 2 didn't do better at all...

 

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

(grrr... accidentally deleted a post)

 

Well, depends on whether a sequel is considered a breakout or not, but have Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019) at 37/114/492.  But that has the advantage of Star Power and a more internationally friendly concept than Haunted Mansion.

 

Aside from that?  If I squint for a given definiton of "breakout" I would point to the first The Addams Family (2019) cartoon at 30/100/203.

 

The thing is, I do agree with MM89 when it comes to the general concept.   Just not the example they're using here.  Too much competition, both in-studio when it comes to scheduling, and general attention.

 

(I'd be even more sympathetic to the argument if it wasn't for FNAF and TET being meme monsters, but that angle of the conversation is dead horse)

I would very much argue against maleficent being horror in any way tbh. I really do feel this genre isn't something that can realistically go over that 100-200 area, and HM was a film that audiences didn't see as anything more than mediocre so it makes sense it wouldn't land on the high end.

 

This film bombed because it had an absolutely ludicrous budget it was never going to recoup even if it was good and on the perfect slot (where it would have done better, mind you, but double? not a chance).

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Too much competition, both in-studio when it comes to scheduling, and general attention.

 

I admit this is also something of a bugbear/hobbyhorse of mine.  

 

One of the perhaps under-appreciated aspects of the Disney buyout of so many different properties is that one studio has to juggle so many different projects when it comes to marketing and scheduling.

 

Maybe if Disney didn't have to "worry" about slotting in The Creator and A Haunting in Venice and The Marvels and Wish in short order, it could have squeezed in something like Haunted Mansion and dared other studios to get in its way.

 

But after watching fairly closely how Disney marketed LFL properties (or rather didn't) I have been starting to wonder about a second or third order knock off effect regarding Disney and Marketing in general.  I recall some recent griping about Disney Marketing, either in this OW thread or another one I read this weekend, and I'm just wondering how much having one studio having to cover all of this actually matters.  

 

Maybe not at all!  The SAG strike certainly didn't help matters and is almost certainly A Much Bigger Deal At The Moment.

 

But I also recall folks griping about Disney's marketing of Ava 2 last year and I made many of the same points then.  If Fox was still a separate company, they wouldn't have cared as much about stepping on the toes of other Disney marketing campaigns and likely aggressively marketed Ava 2 instead of taking the relative hands off policy that Disney employed last summer while it concentrated on other flicks.

 

Of course, of the films I listed above, they're all different types of projects, yes. But The House of Mouse is still looking at not stepping on its own toes with its releases.

 

Is this a Big Piece of the Puzzle?  Well, no.  Is it a factor?  Well, don't think it's nothing, I'll put it that way.

[MovieMan89]

Do I really have to explain what a family Halloween/“horror” film is… yeah, think I’m gonna pass 

Edited October 18, 2023 by MovieMan89

[grim22]

I'm just surprised there's people who think Haunted Mansion would have been a hit released at literally any time. The trailers weren't great, the cast is people you know without them being actual draws and reviews were decidedly eh along with audience reception.

[tdangie]

Yeah... I just wanna say that FNAF has wayyy more appeal than Haunted Mansion as an IP especially with kids. I don't think families see movies based on how fun or wholesome it is, but nowadays, they'll watch a movie if they like the franchise it's attached to. Even if it's an unpopular IP or an original idea, maybe a movie could do well if it's actually good, but I think we can agree that the movie was painfully bland overall.

I do think moving Haunted Mansion to Sept/Oct could have helped its BO, but probably not a ton...

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

I'm just surprised there's people who think Haunted Mansion would have been a hit released at literally any time. The trailers weren't great, the cast is people you know without them being actual draws and reviews were decidedly eh along with audience reception.

Exactly. Disney also shares the same thought, because otherwise the movie wouldn't have been released when it did.

[SchumacherFTW]

3 hours ago, grim22 said:

I'm just surprised there's people who think Haunted Mansion would have been a hit released at literally any time. The trailers weren't great, the cast is people you know without them being actual draws and reviews were decidedly eh along with audience reception.

Hit? No

Less embarrassing performance? Maybe

[JimmyB]

23 hours ago, M37 said:

I think the difference with a late Sept or October release for HM would have primarily been in the legs, as a family Spooky Season option as people circle back in subsequent weeks, instead of withering in the summer when after the initial interest, families knew it would be on D+ for Halloween. For example, despite all this competition, Nun II has already reached 2x OWeek, same as HM, with the former still have a good amount of gas left in the tank, and Paw Patrol could make a 3x OWeek run as the only family option in the market

 

But IMO that doesn't mean breakout, probably more along the lines of Goosebumps (~$80M) rather than the sub $70M its going to finish with. Disney basically "bought" attention to and content for their D+ service by foregoing that back end grossing potential with an out-of-season release. That's a business choice, which does diminish BO$, but not necessarily revenue overall

HM isnt making 13m more just because it was released in Spooky Season. Goosebumps, a well rec'd A CinemaScore, 78% critic rating isnt a good comp vs HM B+ CinemaScore, 37% critic rating.  The House with a Clock in Its Walls seems like the best comp. B+ CinemaScore.  House did 32.2m its first week and 68.5m final. I don't believe in the spooky season bump.  One of the better rec'd live action family horror movies to release in the past ten year over spooky season was Goosebumps. Goosebumps 2 did 46m, spooky season didnt save it.

[M37]

1 hour ago, JimmyB said:

HM isnt making 13m more just because it was released in Spooky Season. Goosebumps, a well rec'd A CinemaScore, 78% critic rating isnt a good comp vs HM B+ CinemaScore, 37% critic rating.  The House with a Clock in Its Walls seems like the best comp. B+ CinemaScore.  House did 32.2m its first week and 68.5m final. I don't believe in the spooky season bump.  One of the better rec'd live action family horror movies to release in the past ten year over spooky season was Goosebumps. Goosebumps 2 did 46m, spooky season didnt save it.

Not a bad analog, but do think competition - Smallfoot in W2 and and Goosebumps 2 in W4 - probably cut off some of HWCIW legs in a way that a very young skewing Paw Patrol and really nothing else wouldn’t have with a late Sept/early Oct release for HM

 

But my larger point was that whatever Spooky Season legs effect would have been available - and I don’t think it was more than +$10-$15M - Disney was willing to forego to help boost its steaming profile. When viewed in that lens, it at least makes some sense from a business perspective. No different than releasing a Christmas themed movie in early Nov to get both a normal run and then a holiday boost (still in theaters) in later weeks. The rise of and quick turnaround to streaming has “broken” some of these holiday themed release “rules”

[ZeroHour]

Disney has gotten worse at knowing when their movies are winners or losers in the last couple of years, but it seems likely from the subdued marketing campaign that they already knew Haunted Mansion was not going to be a box office winner in any month. From that perspective, I agree with @M37. It probably makes more sense to let it bomb in August so it can drop on streaming in time for Halloween. More sensible than having it bomb in October and hitting the streaming service in January or February where it's not going to do Disney+ much good either. Also worth keeping in mind that Disney+ just jumped up their prices this month so it's also not too surprising that they've scheduled a lot of theatrical movies (TLM, Elemental, Haunted Mansion) and their biggest branded shows (Ahsoka & Loki) to be playing across September and October to try and hold on to people.