It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday

[grim22]

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-movie-marketing-chiefs-game-travis-kelce-1235572402/

 

Quote

 

NFL captured her on Twitter cheering her reported b.f. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, which at the time of this report has clocked 2.9 million views on Twitter. All of this comes on the night that Eras Tour begins previews –-and last minute we might add— to what is roughly under $5M per Deadline sources. Please note that’s a very rough estimate for Thursday night, and AMC has not weighed in on that figure. Swift only announced moments before her world premiere last night that fans could snap up tickets early today for 6PM local time shows. Note her original plan was to kick off the concert film at 6PM Friday on Oct. 13; the day of her lucky number.

 

 

Taylor going to have a 20x multiple from previews

[JustLurking]

Probably not much to take away from this since deadline themselves are saying it's very rough. If it comes out around that, tracking thread folks probably need to bump their atp comps up massive because their numbers don't come even close to 5M.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Probably not much to take away from this since deadline themselves are saying it's very rough. If it comes out around that, tracking thread folks probably need to bump their atp comps up massive because their numbers don't come even close to 5M.

 

1] Let's see what the preview number actually is first.

2] Given the distribution spread it is very likely more PLF heavy and more large metro based and more MTC based than the rest of the OW shows.

 

But, sure.  But I wouldn't go crazy here with a bump.

 

(also, it's Deadline)

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

2] Given the distribution spread it is very likely more PLF heavy and more large metro based and more MTC based than the rest of the OW shows.

 

Just as a supporting point:

 

Greater Sacto Tracking:

Thr Previews:    43.85% PLFs

Fri "Previews":  32.57% (and falling) PLFs

 

That's gonna matter.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[Mojoguy]

More guesses from Deadline. lol

Edited October 13, 2023 by Mojoguy

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

More guesses from Deadline. lol

 

I mean it could be "just under 5m"!  I said in the Tracking thread that anything between 2m and 4m wouldn't surprise me, and honestly not even 4.5m or 4.75m would really be all that surprising.  

 

But, well, Deadline has a style guide and I have to give them credit for sticking to it! 👍

 

Still laughing at them Not Doing The Research in regards to no refunds/exchanges* for TET mind. But Not Doing the Research is another hallmark of Deadline, at times.

 

* which, apparently, has been... bent as a policy by some... disgruntled theater managers, per discussion in the Tracking thread [and my own observations of tracking data], but that's a whole other topic.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Our regional comps are around $2.5-3M but may be AMC over indexes a bit more, perhaps $3.5-4M happens. 

Edited October 13, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Mojoguy]

Lots of lowly attended Eras screens this Thurs in my area. Swift waited waaaay too long to annouce those screening. Normal people aren't going to a 3 hour movie on a work/school night.

 

Massive Friday then drop on Sat for sure.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Mojoguy

[Ryan Reynolds]

Thursday previews are disaster , should have been treated as limited early access screenings  , of course it doesn't matter in the end

[Krissykins]

Yeh it was a weird choice to announce them so late. 
 

Anyway, hoping Barbie keeps the biggest opening of 2023. 

[joselowe]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh it was a weird choice to announce them so late. 
 

Anyway, hoping Barbie keeps the biggest opening of 2023. 

Taylor film will def have the most ROI based on her cut and the budget!

[vafrow]

I've been reluctant to dive too deep into my thoughts on this in the tracking thread, so it makes more sense to post here, especially while we wait for meaningful numbers.

 amounts.

 

Has anyone else spent a lot of time wondering what the alternate scenario would have looked like if TSwift opted to partner with one of the studios for release?

 

If this got a studio release with regular ticket pricing, and a traditional marketing plan, does this attract regular audiences? Does it attract people enough to counter the ticket premiums?

 

It'll be fun to see Deadlines profitability estimates next year, as we'll probably get a good breakdown at that time.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, grim22 said:

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-movie-marketing-chiefs-game-travis-kelce-1235572402/

 

 

 

 

Taylor going to have a 20x multiple from previews

 

Deadline took my math post from yesterday to find the preview number:)...

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

My own screening last night had 5 people, non-PLF, but at a multiplex that's kind of abandoned on weekdays (I was not looking for the concert-like experience but even that was pretty empty). Checked the AMC app and the local IMAX had about 30-40 seats sold out of ~300 for a 7 PM show. For that same screen, today's 6 PM show has only 2 spaces still available, the 9:30 PM show has maybe 15 seats left. Lots of almost full or 2/3rds showtimes from 6 PM on today but the newer shows are much emptier. I would be pretty surprised if Saturday's gross was lower than Friday just based on the extra PLF showings but maybe national patterns are different.

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

I've been reluctant to dive too deep into my thoughts on this in the tracking thread, so it makes more sense to post here, especially while we wait for meaningful numbers.

 amounts.

 

Has anyone else spent a lot of time wondering what the alternate scenario would have looked like if TSwift opted to partner with one of the studios for release?

 

If this got a studio release with regular ticket pricing, and a traditional marketing plan, does this attract regular audiences? Does it attract people enough to counter the ticket premiums?

 

It'll be fun to see Deadlines profitability estimates next year, as we'll probably get a good breakdown at that time.

 

 

 

To counter the premiums - no.  A release this way made Taylor the most money possible b/c she did "hit" without needing the help from what studios could give.

[grim22]

20 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

 

If this got a studio release with regular ticket pricing, and a traditional marketing plan, does this attract regular audiences? Does it attract people enough to counter the ticket premiums?

 

 

 

We have seen that already with a number of concert movies. They just have no staying power.

[Eric Duncan]

22 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I've been reluctant to dive too deep into my thoughts on this in the tracking thread, so it makes more sense to post here, especially while we wait for meaningful numbers.

 amounts.

 

Has anyone else spent a lot of time wondering what the alternate scenario would have looked like if TSwift opted to partner with one of the studios for release?

 

If this got a studio release with regular ticket pricing, and a traditional marketing plan, does this attract regular audiences? Does it attract people enough to counter the ticket premiums?

 

It'll be fun to see Deadlines profitability estimates next year, as we'll probably get a good breakdown at that time.

 

 

Would basically have the same amount of attendees if prices were lowered. Concert movies like these only appeal to people who are already fans of Taylor Swift. There's nobody who isn't into Swift who would see a three-hour concert movie because tickets are cheaper.

 

Really, this is the best outcome for Swift, since she's getting more money, clout for having one of the biggest October openings, even if it's lowkey cheating, and the studios get shit on for not paying their writers and actors properly. It's a win-win-win for the parties that matter and deserve it. (Yes I know Swift is already a multi-billionaire, so maybe she doesn't really "deserve it" lmao. But you know what I mean)

[vafrow]

36 minutes ago, Eric Feels 22 said:

Would basically have the same amount of attendees if prices were lowered. Concert movies like these only appeal to people who are already fans of Taylor Swift. There's nobody who isn't into Swift who would see a three-hour concert movie because tickets are cheaper.

 

Really, this is the best outcome for Swift, since she's getting more money, clout for having one of the biggest October openings, even if it's lowkey cheating, and the studios get shit on for not paying their writers and actors properly. It's a win-win-win for the parties that matter and deserve it. (Yes I know Swift is already a multi-billionaire, so maybe she doesn't really "deserve it" lmao. But you know what I mean)

 

The thing is "fan of Taylor Swift" is a wide spectrum. And lots of people who consider themselves fans are not attending.

 

Our family is an example. I threw my name in for the ticket lottery. I didn't get it, but if I did, I fully intended to buy 4 tickets and go. But I have no desire to see the concert film, and neither does anyone else in the family. I'm sure we're not the only one. And given that for my area, my estimate is that there will likely be about 30,000 seats sold for Friday night, but, Swift successfully sold about 300,000 seats to her concert next year in the same region, that I'm not the only one.

 

That's what I'm curious about. Would a marketing strategy that targets people a little further down that spectrum yield much in the way of results.

 

It feels like the consensus is no

 I'm not 100% sure myself, but, I think the studios don't really generate much benefit of the doubt these days for this type of thing.

 

Swift seems to have enough broad appeal, that someone could find a way to make it more appealing to the casual fan.

[filmlover]

Lowish turnout for last night's shows makes complete sense given how 11th hour the announcement was and the majority of Swifties having already bought their tickets/made their plans for tonight. Seems like a strategic move (so that her younger stans wouldn't skip school or stay out late on a school night) if you ask me.

[grim22]

Post by @karaswisher

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