Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[VanillaSkies]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

So I was looking at legs & holds following Thanksgiving, and stumbled into a pattern. Not be a December Debbie Downer, but just pre-emptively setting expectations for the next few weeks...

 

Based on the last 2 years, we should expect most films to bring in over the next 3.5 weeks - from Mon 11/27 through Thu 12/21 - roughly the same amount (+/- 13%) as they did over the 5-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend

 

There will be some exceptions [last year Menu got a second wind and was +87%, Chosen & King Richard crashed well below, etc], and films on platform release (still expanding) should outkick the baseline, but pretty much the entire TG Top 10 followed that pattern

Which means the ~$150M we're getting from the Top 10 over the 5-day is roughly all we're also going to get through the pre-Christmas weekend from those same films, plus whatever the new releases (and expansions) can bring to the table

 

Adjust any calculations accordingly

Thankfully the post Thanksgiving weekend is one of the busiest we’ve seen in years, new release wise. Beyoncé, Godzilla Minus One and Silent Night should all post decent numbers. That will soften the blow somewhat of all the Thanksgiving drops.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Disney's big anniversary movie being owned by Sir Ridley's coke-induced fantasy is insanely embarrassing. It won't even score a #2 spot. They're now back in the same gutter they were in during Eisner's final years, maybe even worse since at least Pixar was saving their asses back then. Now they have nothing.

[JonathanMB]

Hunger Games basically staying flat on Saturday is pretty impressive, especially with the two openers declining more than 10% each. That pretty much locks in $28M for the weekend, and means a sub-35% drop ($29M+) is not impossible (although I'm guessing Lionsgate estimates an opening closer to $28M).

 

Wish is probably opening below $20M for the 3-day. This'll be the first time that a Thanksgiving Disney release was not the top opener for the holiday weekend since...*digging through Box Office Mojo*...Out Cold in 2001, opening #6 behind Spy Game and Black Knight. And Napoleon will be the first R-rated Thanksgiving release to be the top opener since Deja Vu (incidentally, a Disney/Touchstone release).

[Juliet]

1 hour ago, Kon said:

That's another good reason why Eternals sequel wouldn't exist due to popularity on Disney+. It wouldn't make sense to create a really expensive theatrical movie to appeal Disney+ audience. As you say, it would be more convenient to make a TV show (which retain more audience) recasting some actors.

 

Regarding the lack of news about Eternals 2, I also have many doubts about Eternals 2 really existing, but it's possible Disney is only recently considering a sequel. Currently, many characters in the MCU are pretty unpopular, so they may try something with Harry Styles character.

 

Kit Harington seems like the best direction out of that film but I don't know how he ties into the three main plots of the MCU right now, the multiverse, Thunderbolts and Young Avengers. He's on the magic/Marvel UK side and neither have been really developed that strongly yet. (the latter at all, even the British actors are American Superheroes in Marvel)

[M37]

8 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Wish is probably opening below $20M for the 3-day. This'll be the first time that a Thanksgiving Disney release was not the top opener for the holiday weekend since...*digging through Box Office Mojo*...Out Cold in 2001, opening #6 behind Spy Game and Black Knight. And Napoleon will be the first R-rated Thanksgiving release to be the top opener since Deja Vu (incidentally, a Disney/Touchstone release).

And even in 2001, Monsters Inc was second for the TG 3-day weekend in its 4th weekend

 

Also: since 2009, a Disney animated release* or YA Novel film has been #1 for Thanksgiving (3-day) every year except for 2020 (pandemic) and last year (BPWF).  The last film to be tops for TG not from those two genres? Four Christmases upsetting Bolt in 2008

 

*Counting Enchanted here, since its a mix of LA and animation

[Johnny Tran]

Hunger Games has great WOM it would appear.  Surprised at the B+ CS

[gojorager]

Wish not being able to beat Napoleon on a Saturday when you would expect the families and kids to be out in full swing.

It really couldn't be more over than it already is.

[M37]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

So I was looking at legs & holds following Thanksgiving, and stumbled into a pattern. Not be a December Debbie Downer, but just pre-emptively setting expectations for the next few weeks...

 

Based on the last 2 years, we should expect most films to bring in over the next 3.5 weeks - from Mon 11/27 through Thu 12/21 - roughly the same amount (+/- 13%) as they did over the 5-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend

 

There will be some exceptions [last year Menu got a second wind and was +87%, Chosen & King Richard crashed well below, etc], and films on platform release (still expanding) should outkick the baseline, but pretty much the entire TG Top 10 followed that pattern

Which means the ~$150M we're getting from the Top 10 over the 5-day is roughly all we're also going to get until the pre-Christmas weekend (25 days) from those same films, plus whatever the new releases (and expansions) can bring to the table

 

December Doldrums incoming

Here's the full data set fwiw

 

Spoiler

2021 & 2022 Post-TG to Pre-Xmas

Year	Title	TG 5-day	Next 25D	Ratio	Notes
2022	The Menu	$7.62	$14.24	186.9%	???
2022	The Fabelmans	$3.13	$5.71	182.4%	Expansion
2021	Dune	$2.91	$4.88	167.7%	IMAX Re-release
2021	Belfast	$1.28	$1.84	143.8%	Expansion
2021	Venom: Let There Be Carnage	$2.19	$3.01	137.4%
2021	Eternals	$11.49	$13.54	117.8%
2022	Black Adam	$4.46	$5.03	112.8%
2021	Encanto	$40.57	$45.74	112.7%
2022	Bones and All	$3.62	$4.08	112.7%
2022	Devotion	$9.00	$10.08	112.0%
2022	Ticket to Paradise	$2.65	$2.95	111.3%
2021	House of Gucci	$22.01	$24.23	110.1%
2021	No Time to Die	$2.50	$2.69	107.6%
2021	TOP 10 TOTAL	$138.53	$144.85	104.6%
2022	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	$1.34	$1.39	103.7%
2022	TOP 10 TOTAL	$118.30	$117.63	99.4%
2022	She Said	$1.58	$1.48	93.7%
2021	Resident Evil: Raccoon City	$8.85	$8.04	90.8%
2021	Ghostbusters: Afterlife	$35.01	$31.72	90.6%
2022	Strange World	$18.86	$16.33	86.6%
2022	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$63.80	$55.19	86.5%
2021	Clifford the Big Red Dog	$7.03	$5.82	82.8%	Day & Date (Paramount)
2021	King Richard	$4.69	$3.34	71.2%	Day & Date (HBO Max)
2022	The Chosen Season 3: Ep. 1 & 2	$2.24	$1.15	51.3%	TV Premiere 12/11

 

 

Reading between the lines a bit, I do think the baseline for the top TG leftovers this year will be more on the plus side (~110%) as compared to the TG 5-day, rather than the sub-90% of BPWF and Strange World last year

 

So by Aquaman on 12/22 pencil in another ~$45M for HG:BoSS, ~$35M for Napoleon, ~$32M for Wish, ~$28M for  Trolls, while Thanksgiving probably drops off a bit faster (~$8M) given namesake holiday bump and competition for screen space, and Marvels maybe another ~$7m too. Will have to remember to circle back and see which titles fall short or exceed those benchmarks

[titanic2187]

I thought the hold is great until I realise A24 give them an unrealistic 25%-ish Sunday drop.

 

-	(9)	Priscilla	A24	$1,300,032	-44%	1,063	-739	$1,223	$19,602,138	5
-	(16)	Dream Scenario	A24	$639,521	+149%	124	+99	$5,157	$1,387,818	3

[M37]

13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I thought the hold is great until I realise A24 give them an unrealistic 25%-ish Sunday drop.

 

-	(9)	Priscilla	A24	$1,300,032	-44%	1,063	-739	$1,223	$19,602,138	5
-	(16)	Dream Scenario	A24	$639,521	+149%	124	+99	$5,157	$1,387,818	3

Doubtful that happens for Priscilla, but limited release films tend to have better Sunday holds than norm as capacity is a limiting factor for Saturday total, and bigger markets naturally drop less on Sunday than second/third tier ones (more dependent on casual audience)
 

Banshees for example was -29% on this day last year in 400 theaters, Fablemans -33% in 638

Edited November 26, 2023 by M37

[grim22]

Disney have a very barren release slate in 2024. Not even especially big hitters. Their releases are

 

April - The First Omen

May - Planet of the Apes

June - Inside Out 2

July - Deadpool 3

August - Alien

November - The Amateur

December - Mufasa

 

Maybe an animated movie will be added to November but this is not exactly a dominating slate. Inside Out 2 looks like their big movie for the year, Deadpool 3 really depends on whether people view it as it's own thing or another chapter of the MCU to catch up on.

 

I feel like Mufasa is a possibility to give the Captain Marvel to The Marvels drop a challenge.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

are they doing this to get a 2x multiplier? do studios even care about things like that?

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

Hunger Games has great WOM it would appear.  Surprised at the B+ CS

Hunger Games has a lower CinemaScore than Wish?!? 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Starphanluke]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Hunger Games has a lower CinemaScore than Wish?!? 

Hunger Games has a downer ending and is much less of a crowd pleaser. Lower CS than a Dinsey Animated movie isn't very surprising. 

[Kon]

1 minute ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Hunger Games has a lower CinemaScore than Wish?!? 

I've read Cinesmacore works different for animation (A- not being good for Wish).

 

I don't know whether this is true.

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, Kon said:

I've read Cinesmacore works different for animation (A- not being good for Wish).

 

I don't know whether this is true.

 

 

kids are supposed to be easier to please, or so the theory goes, maybe tiktok ruined their attention spans, who knows 

Edited November 26, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator