Weekend Thread | Est. Renaissance $21M, TBOSS $14.5M, Godzilla -1.0 $11.03M, Trolls 3 $7.60M, Wish $7.41M, Napoleon $7.13M, Animal $6.14M, The Shift $4.36M &The Marvels $2.51M

[Chrysaor]

23 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

Impressive legs. This thing is gonna end up finishing with a multiplier close to 3.5!

 

At $121m now...will easily finish over $140m but I'm hoping it does $150m.

 

It reminds me of FB1's domestic run. It may not have opened as high as people expected it to, but it more than made up for it in stronger than expected legs.

 

I think you're underestimating it. I think it'll probably hit $160 MM. With the lack of competition this coming weekend, it should have another stellar hold, and I agree with earlier posts that it should still be in wide release by Christmas day. Those winter vacation days won't help it as much as something like Wonka or Migration, but they'll definitely still make a difference.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Chrysaor

[nguyenkhoi282]

11 minutes ago, Chrysaor said:

 

I think you're underestimating it. I think it'll probably hit $160 MM. With the lack of competition this coming weekend, it should have another stellar hold, and I agree with earlier posts that it should still be in wide release by Christmas day. Those winter vacation days won't help it as much as something like Wonka or Migration, but they'll definitely still make a difference.

I'm thinking 200M is also possible, albeit a very slim chance at high end of projection. But right now, 175M is near locked barring a sudden collapse against historical data.

[Chrysaor]

20 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I'm thinking 200M is also possible, albeit a very slim chance at high end of projection. But right now, 175M is near locked barring a sudden collapse against historical data.

I don't think I'd go as high as $200, but yeah I was thinking $160 MM is pretty locked and there's a good chance of $170-175. If you use the Fantastic Beasts comp (I know, different times) then that'd actually bring it to just over $160 MM (FBaWtFT made another 2.81 x's it's 3rd weekend gross), but I think that this will continue to have softer drops than that film.

 

In either case, I think this will end up being a decent hit for Lionsgate and the fact that they tend to be really smart with their ancillary windows will help too. I liked the movie well enough, but more than anything want it to do well for the sake for its two young stars. They were both so good in it that I feel like they deserve to have this raise their profile as much as possible, and heaven knows that Rachel Zegler could do with as big of a hit as possible after the underperformances of WSS and SFotG.

[Brainbug]

43 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

 

Signs of the great WOM spreading. Now, the biggest obstacle for Minus One going forward is possible theater losses. I really hope it will be able to hold onto its theaters for a little while.

[wildphantom]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Seem like there won't be any PVOD window. The movie will go straight to streaming. Apple+ adopts different strategy. KoTFM going PVOD starting Tuesday Dec 5, 7 weekends after initial release.

 

Hope Saltburn to at least passes 10m. At one point I thought PYW, a pandemic release will beat Saltburn in total. That would be awful and terrible news for specialty market. 

 

I’ll be buying KOTFM Day One!!!

[titanic2187]

Nov 30, 2023	P	$5,060,000		0		$5,060,000
Dec 1, 2023	1	$11,619,984		2,539	$4,577	$11,619,984	1
Dec 2, 2023	2	$6,024,538	-48%	2,539	$2,373	$17,644,522	2
Dec 3, 2023	2	$4,156,694	-31%	2,539	$1,637	$21,801,216	3

 

Good jump from estimate for Beyonce. 

 

[Taylor89]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Nov 30, 2023	P	$5,060,000		0		$5,060,000
Dec 1, 2023	1	$11,619,984		2,539	$4,577	$11,619,984	1
Dec 2, 2023	2	$6,024,538	-48%	2,539	$2,373	$17,644,522	2
Dec 3, 2023	2	$4,156,694	-31%	2,539	$1,637	$21,801,216	3

 

Good jump from estimate for Beyonce. 

 

 

It was veryyy close to 22m.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Signs of the great WOM spreading. Now, the biggest obstacle for Minus One going forward is possible theater losses. I really hope it will be able to hold onto its theaters for a little while.

Think the biggest issue will be loss of PLF; can the WOM sustain for standard viewing as well as it has been helping the OW? 
 

Would put a rough target at like $50M, a run similar to Smile, with faster screen loss but with (potential) holiday boost 

[titanic2187]

Up 300k from. Not as bad as feared but still a terrible 61% 2nd weekend drop. 

 

 

 

[titanic2187]

Up 300k from estimate too. Glad that this Indian-origin distributor is properly reporting BO grosses. As Indian film generates higher sales, their BO numbers become more important than ever.

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

Phenomenal Sun for Godzilla. Damn, this would be a leg beast for sure if there wasn’t an onslaught of movies hitting. Hopefully the fact that it’s holidays means it can still coexist and get a great multi. But yeah it’s kind of a bummer it wasn’t a month later since I think it could have done something really special with Jan/Feb so much more open. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by MovieMan89

[titanic2187]

 

It is official, trolls beat Wish this weekend. Up 230k from estimate. In general, all movies did better than estimate this Sunday

 

 

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

bad year for Chris Pine, starring in 2 of the biggest bombs this year and his directorial debut being unreleasable

[Incarnadine]

Interesting, so far for every movie that actuals have been posted here the number is up from estimates. Usually some go up and others go down a bit, but it looks like the weekend overall was stronger than expected.

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, Incarnadine said:

Interesting, so far for every movie that actuals have been posted here the number is up from estimates. Usually some go up and others go down a bit, but it looks like the weekend overall was stronger than expected.

Just as every movie goes up, HG:BOSS goes down by 330k. 

 

 

 

 

[Firepower]

Napoleon numbers?

[Eric Furiosa]

33 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Napoleon numbers?

 

[Kon]

22 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

 

 

Wish beats Napoleon in the secons weekend, which shows how bad the legs for Napoleon were. 

 

It's unfortunate because there was interest on the movie, but the reception hadn't been good.

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

Wish beats Napoleon in the secons weekend, which shows how bad the legs for Napoleon were. 

 

It's unfortunate because there was interest on the movie, but the reception hadn't been good.

 

Napoleon is a very good example how powerfull fast-travelling WOM has become. The mediocre reception stopped its hype (which was there) right on its tracks.

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Napoleon is a very good example how powerfull fast-travelling WOM has become. The mediocre reception stopped its hype (which was there) right on its tracks.

Sadly it seems like an Exodus redux. That also dropped -66% on it's second weekend.