Weekend Thread | The Boy and The Heron $12.97M, Godzilla -1.0 $8.59M

[emoviefan]

30 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Have u seen the movie? The movie is freaking awesome! I dont' mind to see the second time round. 

I concede that the people around here who don't think Wonka will break out all that much might be right but the WOM for it seems to be on fire. Granted this is OS WOM so far. You never know how Domestic audiences will respond to it. All I know is it seems to be the perfect movie for the holidays and seems ripe for a breakout.

[Pinacolada]

Damn I didn't realize that Saltburn's theater count got slashed in half, actually more than that. 1566 screens last week, apparently 707 this week.

 

That's so disappointing to see after being the only movie to have a really great drop last week. It seems like good WOM/curiosity of it was starting to spread. Was hoping that would lead to it having a nice little run, maybe $15m DOM. But now, idk, they're not even reporting the weekend number yet. I imagine it's probably gonna be a -50% drop. 

 

It's also so odd that it's just dropping on Amazon Prime on Dec 22. Not even a PVOD window. Amazon just doesn't give a fuck. That sucks. Hopefully it can just cross $10m DOM atp

Edited December 10, 2023 by Pinacolada

[M37]

40 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think it certainly appears to be headed for about 12, and as high as Les Mis wouldn't totally stun me though I am doubtful it gets that high. It's already selling well with a (likely) review boost to come. Also, the PostTrak data consistently shows that black audiences of all ages returned to theaters in slightly higher degrees than white audiences, and the last movie targeted towards black audiences was.....I can't even remember.

Equalizer 3 was the last that skewed that way, with probably Woman King (or BPWF) the last major release particularly aimed for Black women 

 

But my point was that a typical Xmas Day release makes only ~9x that first day total, and sales for 12/26 are much lower, so good cause to expect TCP to follow suit. I think a lot of people are (unknowingly) projecting a much higher OD/total ratio and leggier run; something like $12M/$100M (8.5x) is my working number, though I won’t be surprised if it winds up 20% higher (or lower)

[titanic2187]

Do we have a breakdown of just how much of these 12m+ was from limited run for Boy and the heron? 
 

I get GKIDS want that “open to number 1” headline but the rolling in the entire limited run into OW is simply unethical. I really hope various distributors can come down and agree the proper practise in regard to BO reporting especially when EA is getting common nowadays. I hope GKIDS can provide that breakdown since it appear than heron would still be number 1 without help from limited run. 

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Damn I didn't realize that Saltburn's theater count got slashed in half, actually more than that. 1566 screens last week, apparently 707 this week.

 

That's so disappointing to see after being the only movie to have a really great drop last week. It seems like good WOM/curiosity of it was starting to spread. Was hoping that would lead to it having a nice little run, maybe $15m DOM. But now, idk, they're not even reporting the weekend number yet. I imagine it's probably gonna be a -50% drop. 

It's also so odd that it's just dropping on Amazon Prime on Dec 22. Not even a PVOD window. Amazon just doesn't give a fuck. That sucks

This is why  I give kudo's to Apple. Yeah maybe they are spending too much on these movies like Killers, Nappy, and Argyle but they are respecting the Theatrical window and not doing what Amazon and Netflix are doing.

[harrisonisdead]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Do we have a breakdown of just how much of these 12m+ was from limited run for Boy and the heron? 
 

I get GKIDS want that “open to number 1” headline but the rolling in the entire limited run into OW is simply unethical. I really hope various distributors can come down and agree the proper practise in regard to BO reporting especially when EA is getting common nowadays. I hope GKIDS can provide that breakdown since it appear than heron would still be number 1 without help from limited run. 

They aren't rolling the entire limited run into the OW, they're gradually rolling it in over the next two weeks on a prorated basis, so unless they changed their mind on that this weekend would only include the like <$150k the movie would have made during that first limited weekend.

 

But yeah, even if they did roll the entire limited run into this weekend, it wouldn't come even close to the $3.4M currently separating #1 and #2.

 

Edited December 10, 2023 by harrisonisdead

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

This is why  I give kudo's to Apple. Yeah maybe they are spending too much on these movies like Killers, Nappy, and Argyle but they are respecting the Theatrical window and not doing what Amazon and Netflix are doing.

Too add to this. Sure Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon  both have underperformed and one of them is not that great a movie but more people will talk about and be aware of these movies than ever will be for The Killer sorry David and Maestro sorry Bradley. Those movies will just vanish into the Netflix algorithim ether.

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Too add to this. Sure Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon  both have underperformed and one of them is not that great a movie but more people will talk about and be aware of these movies than ever will be for The Killer sorry David and Maestro sorry Bradley. Those movies will just vanish into the Netflix algorithim ether.

 

Netflix movies/Movies that are produced by Streaming Services and can only be watched on Streaming dont exist in the cultural zeitgeist. Nobody cares about them, even if millions are watching them, its like they never existed in the first place.

 

Thats why filmmakers are so desperate for movies to have theatralic releases. Even if the movie bombs (Morbius/Indy 5/The Marvels/Wish), at least people are still aware those movies exist. A theatralic release gives a movie exposure and relevance, the absolute opposite of a Netflix-produced movie.

[excel1]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Who cares? It made 43M in just 37 markets, many of them are seeing daily growth 

 

It’s actually the opposite, while DOM seems to be heading to a good but normal 150M-ish, OS can try +300M with holidays if the next markets are strong like this weekend markets. 

 

 

 

Domestic is going to be real tough to predict. The slew of strong headline it is receiving will help significantly. 

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Netflix movies/Movies that are produced by Streaming Services and can only be watched on Streaming dont exist in the cultural zeitgeist. Nobody cares about them, even if millions are watching them, its like they never existed in the first place.

 

Thats why filmmakers are so desperate for movies to have theatralic releases. Even if the movie bombs (Morbius/Indy 5/The Marvels/Wish), at least people are still aware those movies exist. A theatralic release gives a movie exposure and relevance, the absolute opposite of a Netflix-produced movie.

That's why when I read Fincher say Netflix is the future of Movies or the Russo's say it's elitist to favor theatrical moviegoing. Like get the f out of here with that shit.  I can feel these guys just cashing their netflix checks as they speak.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

The reality is, in a couple years, both Killers of the Flower Moon and Killers will be culturally equal, because neither of them made much of an impact, even if the former was theatrically released.

Yes, even if KotFM wins awards. Besides the Oscars moment, does anyone ever talk about Moonlight?

[MovieMan89]

The more I hear about Wonka, the more I’m gonna stick to what I said months ago about it being #3 DOM for the year 

[MovieMan89]

How cool would it be to see Heron and -1 beat Wish and The Marvels respectively DOM? I don’t think either will happen (maybe a small chance for -1), but the fact both should at least come within 20mil of them is insane. 

[ZeroHour]

28 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

The reality is, in a couple years, both Killers of the Flower Moon and Killers will be culturally equal, because neither of them made much of an impact, even if the former was theatrically released.

Yes, even if KotFM wins awards. Besides the Oscars moment, does anyone ever talk about Moonlight?

You can name Moonlight. Can you name a single Netflix movie that came out that same year without looking it up?

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, harrisonisdead said:

They aren't rolling the entire limited run into the OW, they're gradually rolling it in over the next two weeks on a prorated basis, so unless they changed their mind on that this weekend would only include the like <$150k the movie would have made during that first limited weekend.

 

 

 

This isn’t making them more ethical. And distorting the actual BO data for future analysis. 
 

that being said, this OW certainly is what heron needs for its Oscar bid. Remember how EEAAO became the biggest movie for A24 boosted that movie Oscar chance. I would expect similar impact here as heron become biggest GKIDS hit ever, expanding the potential audience group beyond anime fans to cinephile. 

[JimmyB]

So many movies get released in theaters that are gone and forgotten about like a movie being dumped on a streaming service.

 

 

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

So many movies get released in theaters that are gone and forgotten about like a movie being dumped on a streaming service.

 

 

which is kind of remarkable that Disney's releasing the three Pixar movies Soul, Turning Red, and Luca in early 2024... I wonder how they will do.

[harrisonisdead]

11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

This isn’t making them more ethical. And distorting the actual BO data for future analysis. 
 

that being said, this OW certainly is what heron needs for its Oscar bid. Remember how EEAAO became the biggest movie for A24 boosted that movie Oscar chance. I would expect similar impact here as heron become biggest GKIDS hit ever, expanding the potential audience group beyond anime fans to cinephile. 

I wasn't commenting on the ethicality of it, I was helping answer your question

[M37]

42 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

You can name Moonlight. Can you name a single Netflix movie that came out that same year without looking it up?

Okja? I’m not sure what year that came out, but back then Netflix was more focused on series than movies, like Orange is New Black, Stranger Things, and The Crown, all of which had at least some cultural relevance 

[Kon]

47 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

You can name Moonlight. Can you name a single Netflix movie that came out that same year without looking it up?

Honestly, I don't think Netflix was big enough at that time for your comparison to be fair.

 

I could name Irishman from Netflix without looking for it.