MovieMan89 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Best case scenario is Hollywood slashes the quantity in favor of quality. But the problem is that then we just get to the place where it’s fewer and fewer movies in the year with even the potential to carry the year for theaters, and that could in turn make it even more likely they won’t. It’s not likely quality is a guarantee, see Dead Reckoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) 27 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: At least 25m admits, if not more like 30. 400 in 2013 is way above that. And no, we have never had any box office stretch like this outside of Covid without those big hits at all. 300 in 2013 was way bigger than 300 now, and we can’t even get near 300 now. It’s terrible. If you want a season-specific example, nothing got over $200mil in 2008's holiday season. Twilight was the closest at $193mil. Ultimately, the year was still a significant improvement on last even it it wasn't as "balanced" per se. Revenue is still on a gradual upward trend, and as long as that's the case I don't see a reason to assume that post-pandemic demand has peaked. If it does end up not "sustainable" I'll cross that bridge of worry when there's a reason for it. But as of right now I appreciate that the market isn't as reliant as megablockbusters on everyone once feared it was. Edited January 1 by AniNate 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) @Relevation predicted $375M WW for Aquaman 2 pre-tracking. It turns out that will be close to its final total. Great job Edited January 1 by HummingLemon496 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, emoviefan said: I get what you are saying but what has come out since then that should have blown up and been massive since Barbenheimer and did not other than the CBM's which we all know carried the BO until the implosion happened. .I can see if tentpole after tentpole had come out and bombed. Yeah it would have been great if Wonka pulled a jumanji but it didn't. It's gonna do 200 DOM at least and 600 WW barring a complete post holiday collapse. Pretty dam good for 125 million budget. BOSS has easily overperformed expectations on a 100 million budget. Migration seems like it will have legs and have a decent final total and it is cheap like most Illumnation movies are. Putting the burdens on movies to overperform their expectations is what leads to the downbeat mood that is so common around here. I really dread March when Dune Part 2 come out and does 175 DOM and 530 WW people lose their shit because it should have done 300 + and 700 + to make up for a not great Jan/Feb. I mean, I just listed tentpole after tentpole that bombed… and the list could be far from over. It’s more likely than not that this streak continues until summer. The overall point is in the past something would ALWAYS rise up to be huge, even when totally unexpected, in a stretch of time such as this. Thats clearly no longer a box office given. Studios have to take heed of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, AniNate said: If you want a season-specific example, nothing got over $200mil in 2008's holiday season. Twilight was the closest at $193mil. Ultimately, the year was still a significant improvement on last even it it wasn't as "balanced" per se. Revenue is still on a gradual upward trend, and as long as that's the case I don't see a reason to assume that post-pandemic demand has peaked. If it does end up not "sustainable" I'll cross that bridge of worry when there's a reason for it. But as of right now I appreciate that the market isn't as reliant as megablockbusters as everyone once feared it was. And you do realize that was still at the 25m admission threshold right? Dont think you’re understanding the point. We always have hits on that level within a certain time stretch. Always. 2020-2021 was the only exception before now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyB Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) 20 minutes ago, DAJK said: Marvel filled a niche. Something else will inevitably fill it. Just because we are in a transition time is nothing to freak out over. It's not just Marvel it was Star Wars, live action remakes of Disney animated classics, Pixar and Disney animated films like Frozen. Disney was adding an extra 1b to 2b more to the domestic marketplace as the other studios were making what they make now. Disney just came back to the pack and is making what other studios gross in 2023. It's not a niche to fill by something else Disney was pumping up the domestic marketplace like a bodybuilder on steroids. 2018 1 Walt Disney 13 $3,135,010,376 344,128,465 26.25% 2 Warner Bros. 29 $1,927,883,967 211,622,827 16.15% 3 Universal 23 $1,767,819,961 194,052,678 14.80% 2019 1 Walt Disney 13 $3,742,497,656 408,569,611 33.28% 2 Warner Bros. 29 $1,561,694,052 170,490,617 13.89% 3 Sony Pictures 24 $1,341,427,238 146,444,013 11.93% 2022 1 Universal 22 $1,540,488,825 146,295,225 20.78% 2 Walt Disney 9 $1,356,160,257 128,790,144 18.30% 3 Paramount Pictures 17 $1,304,679,260 123,901,164 17.60% 2023 1 Universal 21 $1,812,486,317 172,125,946 20.35% 2 Walt Disney 12 $1,445,037,617 137,230,537 16.23% 3 Warner Bros. 16 $1,404,687,041 133,398,572 15.77% Edited January 1 by JimmyB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: I mean, I just listed tentpole after tentpole that bombed… and the list could be far from over. It’s more likely than not that this streak continues until summer. The overall point is in the past something would ALWAYS rise up to be huge, even when totally unexpected, in a stretch of time such as this. Thats clearly no longer a box office given. Studios have to take heed of that. Well I don't think some of those movies you listed were tentpoles that the studios should be banking on to blow up and be massive hits and if they did you are right they need to figure it out and take heed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) Madagascar 2 also hit the 25m or so mark for holiday 2008’s slate. So we had two movies still in that blockbuster range from that holiday (Bond 3rd with not much lower). We are so used to massive inflation of the last decade, it’s easy to forget 200m was still a very big deal circa 08. Compare to this year where one movie may get close to 20m if it’s really lucky with fantastic holds for the next two months straight, and nothing else will even come close to scraping 15. Awful. Whats gonna come close to scraping 15 before summer either? Dune is the only real candidate, and I remain incredibly bullish on that one. Edited January 1 by MovieMan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 If the streak continues into the summer that's when I'll start worrying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 DUNE 2 for 100M OW imo. Book It! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) What I'm hoping for in 2024 is this trend of modest budgeted movies finding sizable audiences continuing, there's a lot of stuff that could potentially be successful if it strikes the right chord, but just can't know for sure until marketing and reviews come out. Edited January 1 by AniNate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) 1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said: We also can’t expect there will always be a dump of wide releases on deck for Xmas like this year, especially when something like this has never happened before. What are you talking about? The studios have always dropped a shit ton of releases during the Holiday season. The 2019 Holiday Season had 9 wide releases. 2023 had 8 (9 if you include Heron). 2018 had 10. 2017 also 8. Edited January 1 by Bob Train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 All these sequels on the 2024 slate are just so damn ugly. Sure you have the Dune, Beetlejuice and Joker 2s of the year that seem like they have potential to be interesting at least (though not sure how much that helps the former). But most of them sound straight out of desperation and out of touch executives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Bob Train said: What are you talking about? The studios have always dropped a shit ton of releases during the Holiday season. The only exceptions were 2021 and 2022 where it was barren except for 1 megahit. The 2019 Holiday Season had 9 wide releases. 2023 had 8 (9 if you include Heron). 2018 had 10. 2017 also 8. All on Xmas weekend?? That’s what I was referring to, not the whole holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Prime Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 29 minutes ago, AniNate said: If you want a season-specific example, nothing got over $200mil in 2008's holiday season. Twilight was the closest at $193mil. Ultimately, the year was still a significant improvement on last even it it wasn't as "balanced" per se. Revenue is still on a gradual upward trend, and as long as that's the case I don't see a reason to assume that post-pandemic demand has peaked. If it does end up not "sustainable" I'll cross that bridge of worry when there's a reason for it. But as of right now I appreciate that the market isn't as reliant as megablockbusters on everyone once feared it was. If anything, the way things are this season is arguably better for theaters from a revenue sharing perspective. Disney was infamous for their draconian practices where they got way more money from the box office results compared to the other studios, getting about 60% or 65% of the box office compared to the usual 55% from other studios. Among other things too. So really, we're above from last year with movies that likely gave theaters more revenue and an evil capitalist studio is likely a lot more humbled into being...well, still evil and capitalist, but not as bad. Like I'm sure Disney forced theaters to give them a huge deal that was way in their favors for Avatar last year like they did for Star Wars and Marvel. No way that was the case for Wonka or Migration or Color Purple or whatever. Might be wrong here, and I doubt we'll ever get back to the $11B+ of the late 2010s, but this might not be as doom and gloom at first glance. And that says a lot coming from me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: All on Xmas weekend?? That’s what I was referring to, not the whole holiday season. 2017 had 6 wide releases drop on 4-day Xmas weekend. 2023 has 7. It's a decent amount but not out of the ordinary. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The problem is that, while this Christmas is not that disastrous, January, February look dire. Avatar 2 made a bunch of money in those months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallas Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 All this doomposting is so dumb. Half the movies everyone expected to carry the box office this year flopped or were disappointments, yet we still hit $9B. The box office will survive as it always has. 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Bob Train said: 2017 had 6 wide releases drop on 4-day Xmas weekend. 2023 has 7. It's a decent amount but not out of the ordinary. So one other time isn’t out of the ordinary? And it was 8 (Poor Things got is wide release as well). To my knowledge, we have never had 11 wide releases throughout December vying for Xmas screens (13 with Renaissance and Silent Night but those already got the shaft thanks to all the comp). Thats pretty nuts. Edited January 1 by MovieMan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Time for DWA or Illumination to get that Steamboat Willie movie on the slate and get the Internet all abuzz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
