3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

March deja vu continues the good thing is the big movies are opening higher vs March 2023.  Bad news the February hold-overs are a non factor.

 

Smaller films that had wide releases in March....65 opened to 12.3m vs Imaginary 10m.  His Only Son opened to 5.5m vs Cabrini 7.5m.  March 2023 also had Champions which opened to 5m and Demon Slayer 10m.  None of these movies made much which is going to be similar to March 2024 smaller films.

 

Last year, the 3rd weekend in March had Shazam! opening to 30m and Scream and Creed 3 combining for 32m.

Dune and Panda should match that next weekend.  The new Marky Mark movie probably makes 10-15m everything else under 5m. The 3rd weekend in March should be a wash with the 3rd weekend in March 2023.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agreed. I think we are looking at 82m Dune 2 v Wick 73m, the two 58m openers in Creed and Panda, Godzilla opening to about exactly the 44m of Scream, Ghostbusters doing exactly the 37m of Dungeons, and Arthur the King doing 15m less OW than Shazam but honestly probably finishing not too far behind in total. This month will certainly be bigger in total because of Dune and Panda trouncing the legs of Wick and Creed. I do think that Ghostbusters can probably have a slightly better hold than Dungeons too. So a very nice March for the big releases, probably 125m more total than last year's big five openers.

 

I am not too pressed at all about underperformances from smaller releases this month, but if Civil War, Monkey Man, and Challenges ALL bomb, I will be getting back to negative and depressed for now. 

[ando]

April should be good for these March blockbusters to leg out for a few weeks with some really nice holds. 

[eeetooki]

6 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

This is dangerously innacurate shit. Even Gwyneth Paltrow and Asia Argento were preyed upon by the likes of Weinstein so it's not like nepotism is guaranteed safety against harassment. Both of Dakota's grandmother and mother were treated like garbage by the industry. She doesn't really need to put up a fake pretense of being "grateful" for being cast in uninspired duds like Madame Web. She has already made bank thanks to the 50 Shades franchise. Robert Pattinson broke out due to Twilight and that didn't stop him from dunking on the films while they were still coming out but he wasn't hated on for it.

 

Because Robert Pattinson is actually a good actor and chose good projects after Twilight.

[von Kenni]

29 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

So after first two weeks Part Two will surpass what Dune 1 got during its whole run in four months or so. Not bad, not bad at all.

 

[MCKillswitch123]

This forum should have never opened up to the incels from r/BoxOffice.

[filmlover]

I think over $10M would be solid for Arthur the King next weekend. Won't do as well as Dog did but for a movie that was sitting on the shelf for three years, it would be an acceptable result.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[JustLurking]

I think the cowardice of concern trolling is the most annoying thing. Have the balls to atleast wear your dislike of the film on your sleeves.

[Johnny Tran]

What do y'all think about Gitesh saying $750M+ incoming for Dune?  That would be incredible for this.... 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

What do y'all think about Gitesh saying $750M+ incoming for Dune?  That would be incredible for this.... 

I'm thinking somewhere in between 650-700 myself. Maybe it'll hold more nicely than expected and get there though, but it seems optimistic.

[Minnale101]

For kfp4 to do 58 million it would have to do 16 million today, bookings near me look much better than true Friday 15.4 million 

 

I think it will get to 60 million

[Chaz]

LOL Kung Fu Panda 4 opened higher than the other two sequels? Crazy.

[JimmyB]

23 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Agreed. I think we are looking at 82m Dune 2 v Wick 73m, the two 58m openers in Creed and Panda, Godzilla opening to about exactly the 44m of Scream, Ghostbusters doing exactly the 37m of Dungeons, and Arthur the King doing 15m less OW than Shazam but honestly probably finishing not too far behind in total. This month will certainly be bigger in total because of Dune and Panda trouncing the legs of Wick and Creed. I do think that Ghostbusters can probably have a slightly better hold than Dungeons too. So a very nice March for the big releases, probably 125m more total than last year's big five openers.

 

I am not too pressed at all about underperformances from smaller releases this month, but if Civil War, Monkey Man, and Challenges ALL bomb, I will be getting back to negative and depressed for now. 

April looks incredibly weak and what's making money in March is known IP sequels something April is missing.

 

Maybe, one of the April films breaks out but it looks like repeat of April 2023 minus Mario. Which is ugly. Fall Guy being the movie to kick off the Summer box office doesn't fit what makes money either.  March 2024 feels like a dead cat bounce....i hope im wrong.

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

For kfp4 to do 58 million it would have to do 16 million today, bookings near me look much better than true Friday 15.4 million 

 

I think it will get to 60 million

Animation tends to perform better in Sunday than in Friday, especially for matinee show. If Zootopia is any guide, KP4 should do extra 1m in Sunday for 59m OW. 

[filmlover]

April actually looks full of movies with some low-key potential. Zendaya should easily power Challengers past CMBYN to become the biggest movie of Luca's career and probably by a significant margin too. Abigail looks quite entertaining. 

[Cmasterclay]

12 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

April looks incredibly weak and what's making money in March is known IP sequels something April is missing.

 

Maybe, one of the April films breaks out but it looks like repeat of April 2023 minus Mario. Which is ugly. Fall Guy being the movie to kick off the Summer box office doesn't fit what makes money either.  March 2024 feels like a dead cat bounce....i hope im wrong.

April is actually the kind of test of appealing adult filmmaking we want, with four weekends in a row of marketed, budgeted, and interesting adult films and room for them to take off. If none of them make real money, it's kind of a sign that things just are not meant to be. If they all fail, I don't want to hear the "but but but that film would have not made any money before COVID, it's a great result!" because the general consensus is these movies look good and interesting and are getting real marketing. They are an actual test.

Edited March 10 by Cmasterclay

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

Plus, I repeatedly said 80M was the best case scenario

Which turned out to be wrong.

[JimmyB]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

April actually looks full of movies with some low-key potential. Zendaya should easily power Challengers past CMBYN to become the biggest movie of Luca's career and probably by a significant margin too. Abigail looks quite entertaining. 

What do you think Challengers can make? Don't Worry Darling numbers? It will be interesting to see Zendaya opening a non IP film.

 

I agree, Abigail looks fun maybe Violent Night numbers or it could tank with Ready or Not box office.

 

I think Cmasterclay Is right and April is a good test for Adult movies.  

[filmlover]

May is gonna be pretty fascinating due to the lack of a Marvel-sized juggernaut. On paper The Fall Guy is probably the most high-profile movie of the month given that both of its stars are coming off of major acclaimed blockbusters (that they both received Oscar nominations for)? We'll see what its reception at SXSW is like.

 

IF and Garfield should take advantage of the lack of family films for over two months and are different enough that they can co-exist. Not expecting much from the Amy Winehouse movie though - perhaps even more so than Whitney, everyone knows her life was a feel-bad story and the fans likely don't wish to re-experience it anytime soon.

 

Planet of the Apes and Furiosa feel like they could go either way and it doesn't seem like anyone would be surprised though. The latter in particular faces marketing challenges as a prequel.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

What do you think Challengers can make? Don't Worry Darling numbers? It will be interesting to see Zendaya opening a non IP film.

 

I agree, Abigail looks fun maybe Violent Night numbers or it could tank with Ready or Not box office.

 

I think Cmasterclay Is right and April is a good test for Adult movies.  

Don't Worry Darling numbers for Challengers sounds about right.