Coco | Pixar / Lee Unkrich | Now playing | #1 all-time in Mexico

[Fancyarcher]

9 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Honestly, the idea that Coco would be outgrossed by The Star was ludicrous even before that first trailer hit. 

Thankfully, I'm pretty sure @YourMother was the only one predicting that, at least at first. Everyone else had The Star down as a disappointment, even if they did undersell Coco as well. Glad they've been proven wrong. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Fancyarcher said:

Thankfully, I'm pretty sure @YourMother was the only one predicting that, at least at first. Everyone else had The Star down as a disappointment, even if they did undersell Coco as well. Glad they've been proven wrong. 

Never. I have said in the past The Star could do $100M but never over Coco

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Never. I have said in the past The Star could do $100M but never over Coco

Think that was @TwoMisfits who thought it had a shot even after the trailer was released. 

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Never. I have said in the past The Star could do $100M but never over Coco

Oh, well you were stanning for The Star at one point, that's for sure. I'm very pleased that Coco might do 200m+.

[YM!]

Just now, Fancyarcher said:

Oh, well you were stanning for The Star at one point, that's for sure. I'm very pleased that Coco might do 200m+.

I was until that shitty trailer dropped. I think an animated Christmas movie had potential but naturally Sony fucked up.

[marveldcfox]

This looks so unappealing it ain't funny. People were genuinely pissed when this trailer popped at the screening of Thor Ragnarok. 

[cannastop]

21 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

This looks so unappealing it ain't funny. People were genuinely pissed when this trailer popped at the screening of Thor Ragnarok. 

How could you tell they were pissed?

[keysersoze123]

its marvelcdfox. His posts are normally height of exaggeration. Plus he is in India where Pixar movies have never clicked. 

 

Mexico BO clearly showed how strong it will play to Latino audience. I am confident its breaking out HUGE domestic. 

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Think that was @TwoMisfits who thought it had a shot even after the trailer was released. 

I don't rule anything out til we see how folks actually start going out for the movies...

 

Last year, I said Sing over Moana back in Jan - that worked out...

 

This one may not, but bold predicts normally shouldn't:)...

 

And I still think those who think The Star is looking at a Nut Job 2 or lower max box office are gonna be surprised...it has way more chance to top something like Cap Underpants #s this year just b/c of what it is...

 

1. An animated nativity movie when there has never been one...

2. An incredibly appropriate and diverse cast like there should be to tell the story...

 

So, I don't worry about those that mention the low budget - I mean, how many $5M horror films have broken huge this year...I worry much more about release competition and trailer thoughts by the target audience (kids and their moms, mostly, b/c mom is gonna make the call if families are going).  It's not as good as I hoped, but it may not have to be to still do well (I mean, Moana and Sing were both just B-grade movies to me, and they both did really well...and funny enough, I picked Sing to beat Moana, but only paid to see Moana in theaters:)...

[TwoMisfits]

41 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Thankfully, I'm pretty sure @YourMother was the only one predicting that, at least at first. Everyone else had The Star down as a disappointment, even if they did undersell Coco as well. Glad they've been proven wrong. 

How could we be proven wrong yet?:)  You gotta at least wait til both movies release DOM:)...

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

How could we be proven wrong yet?:)  You gotta at least wait til both movies release DOM:)...

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Great animated movies can make crap numbers...maybe not Pixar, but then again, Kubo should have won an Oscar and made $48M DOM.  It was a boy, with an instrument, which told a very sad story with a redeeming ending...The Book of Life made $50M DOM...so, yes, lots going for Coco, and the Pixar name being by far the hugest, hugest thing b/c of the way Disney fans are...but I wouldn't say "proven" when previous great movies in the same vein have disappointed...

 

A movie can do well south of the US and still crash and burn here (Ice Age 5)...the US market does not march in lock step with other markets...

Edited November 6, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I don't rule anything out til we see how folks actually start going out for the movies...

 

Last year, I said Sing over Moana back in Jan - that worked out...

 

This one may not, but bold predicts normally shouldn't:)...

 

And I still think those who think The Star is looking at a Nut Job 2 or lower max box office are gonna be surprised...it has way more chance to top something like Cap Underpants #s this year just b/c of what it is...

 

1. An animated nativity movie when there has never been one...

2. An incredibly appropriate and diverse cast like there should be to tell the story...

 

So, I don't worry about those that mention the low budget - I mean, how many $5M horror films have broken huge this year...I worry much more about release competition and trailer thoughts by the target audience (kids and their moms, mostly, b/c mom is gonna make the call if families are going).  It's not as good as I hoped, but it may not have to be to still do well (I mean, Moana and Sing were both just B-grade movies to me, and they both did really well...and funny enough, I picked Sing to beat Moana, but only paid to see Moana in theaters:)...

But it looks awful! And the fact Sony hasn't been promoting it to the masses unlike Coco which apparently has 'no marketing' suggests they're not expecting a huge hit. 

 

Also, you can't compare horror to animation as horror has always been a low budget genre, you can get away with horror being cheap looking but animation not so much and this looks bargain basement compared to Coco.

[YM!]

Just to point out for the no marketing thing earlier but mainly it was Coco’s trailer views.

[Fancyarcher]

53 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I was until that shitty trailer dropped. I think an animated Christmas movie had potential but naturally Sony fucked up.

Like they always do. Shame as they could have gotten a decent Christian audience too, but nope.

 

23 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

How could we be proven wrong yet?:)  You gotta at least wait til both movies release DOM:)...

Of course, but I'm pretty sure The Star isn't making over 100m either, and Coco absolutely almost without question is. It's gonna do considerably better, more then likely.

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Like they always do. Shame as they could have gotten a decent Christian audience too, but nope.

That’s all I was trying to say. Wasted opportunity, could’ve been big but odds are it’s probably shit.

[Deja23]

24 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Great animated movies can make crap numbers...maybe not Pixar, but then again, Kubo should have won an Oscar and made $48M DOM.  It was a boy, with an instrument, which told a very sad story with a redeeming ending...The Book of Life made $50M DOM...so, yes, lots going for Coco, and the Pixar name being by far the hugest, hugest thing b/c of the way Disney fans are...but I wouldn't say "proven" when previous great movies in the same vein have disappointed...

 

A movie can do well south of the US and still crash and burn here (Ice Age 5)...the US market does not march in lock step with other markets...

 

You think Coco will only make $50m DOM? Or that The Star will make $100m+? You can list the similarities between Coco, Kubo and BoL, but that doesn’t mean they’re the same movies. The Pixar name isn’t why I’m interested in this movie, the story and animation is why. Coco gives me an Inside Out vibe, and no I'm not saying it’ll do as well as Inside Out. I just think it’ll do really well with families while The Star seems more niche. 

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, YourMother said:

That’s all I was trying to say. Wasted opportunity, could’ve been big but odds are it’s probably shit.

At best I expect it to be another mid-budgeted mediocre animated film, that Sony tries to sell based off its cast. Likely won't work though. 

[keysersoze123]

35 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Great animated movies can make crap numbers...maybe not Pixar, but then again, Kubo should have won an Oscar and made $48M DOM.  It was a boy, with an instrument, which told a very sad story with a redeeming ending...The Book of Life made $50M DOM...so, yes, lots going for Coco, and the Pixar name being by far the hugest, hugest thing b/c of the way Disney fans are...but I wouldn't say "proven" when previous great movies in the same vein have disappointed...

 

A movie can do well south of the US and still crash and burn here (Ice Age 5)...the US market does not march in lock step with other markets...

No. Pixar fanbase exists because of its history of making great movies. 

[TwoMisfits]

28 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

But it looks awful! And the fact Sony hasn't been promoting it to the masses unlike Coco which apparently has 'no marketing' suggests they're not expecting a huge hit. 

 

Also, you can't compare horror to animation as horror has always been a low budget genre, you can get away with horror being cheap looking but animation not so much and this looks bargain basement compared to Coco.

Sometimes you don't market a movie, and it still somehow hits...

 

The Passion of the Christ was not marketed (at least money wise) either...http://adage.com/article/special-report-marketing-50/passion-christ/101012/

 

Now, this won't have nearly THAT kinda draw b/c they are dialing down the religiousness for this movie, not dialing it up...but then again, that one went for realism and the suffering of the Lenten season...while Christmas is, and has always had, a more celebratory preparation season...

 

Yes, different movie going season then, too...but as people are pointing out, we've had a dry season for animation since spring, so if Emoji could drag in so many folks on cynicism just b/c the movie had vibrant colors and poop, who knows how many they might pull in when parents say "we gotta celebrate baby Jesus' birthday before Santa can come"...