Weekend Numbers | Actuals | 81.3M TWISTERS | 24.4M DESPICABLE ME IV | 12.8M INSIDE OUT II | 12.0M LONGLEGS

[Ryan C]

5 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Isn't the the early Deadline preview number almost always a lowball? Feels like that's been the case most of this year anyway

 

They usually lowball the weekend numbers whenever we get a Friday Midday Update. Unless I'm forgetting something, I've never really seen them lowball a Thursday preview number. 

 

Feel free to post any examples as I'm sure there are plenty. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Isn't the the early Deadline preview number almost always a lowball? Feels like that's been the case most of this year anyway

 

It is, unless it isn't.  Recently, AQPD1 was off by about 1.75m, but KPotA was nearly bullseyed.

 

Mind, I do think there is a legitimate reason for an undershoot this time as this looks to be playing very strongly in the Midwest, and whatever metrics/sources Deadline is using/tapping might not be picking up on said strength in the Midwest.  So it wouldn't be just a case of Early Deadline Estimates.

[Ryan C]

 

[JonathanMB]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It is, unless it isn't.  Recently, AQPD1 was off by about 1.75m, but KPotA was nearly bullseyed.

 

Mind, I do think there is a legitimate reason for an undershoot this time as this looks to be playing very strongly in the Midwest, and whatever metrics/sources Deadline is using/tapping might not be picking up on said strength in the Midwest.  So it wouldn't be just a case of Early Deadline Estimates.

 

Oop, looks like a lowball week

 

 

[Flopped]

Boy did I find Twisters dull. WOM should still be good but not that good. 

[Mojoguy]

5 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

That would be bigger than Apes' $58M OW. Nice, especially after months of SOOOO much doomposting for Twisters.

[abracadabra1998]

I guess I should have trusted my numbers a little more  yay for a good old Midwest movie! I think the top performing theaters will be fun to watch this weekend, I'll keep an eye for that this weekend

[thajdikt]

1 hour ago, PrinceRico said:

What is twisters looking to make worldwide and would it be good considering the $200 million budget

Maybe 250M-350M. OS looks weak, while domestic will be great.

Edited July 19 by thajdikt

[Ryan C]

7 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

That would be bigger than Apes' $58M OW. Nice, especially after months of SOOOO much doomposting for Twisters.

 

We'll have to see how it does overseas, but this is still a good start domestically and even if the weekend hasn't even started yet, it could go higher. 

 

I said if Twisters opened in the $60M range it would be good, but if it's able to get to $70M, then we would be in the great territory. Especially if the budget is reportedly $155M and not $200M. 

 

The momentum keeps on building guys! 

[Migs20242]

Saw Twisters last Tuesday and it was a good summer flick.

[Ryan C]

It's honestly amazing how ever since May ended we've been getting breakout hit after breakout hit this summer. If you only remove the June 21-23 weekend, every other one has had at least one movie overperform either massively or slightly surpass expectations. I know people will say "most of them are sequels" and we can't deny that but that's still so much better than nothing. 

 

I can't tell you how refreshing it is that we didn't have to wait for Marvel for what feels like the 100th time to get us out of the slump we've been in ever since Memorial Day. Deadpool and Wolverine almost feels like the extra cherry on top at this point. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

35 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Oop, looks like a lowball week

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Rooting for $200M+ DOM

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Rooting for $200M+ DOM

 

Honestly, I wouldn't expect that. Not even just because Deadpool and Wolverine is opening next weekend, but also because if a movie like Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire can open to $80M, and still miss out on $200M domestically, I don't see how Twisters could do that. 

 

Hopefully I'm proven wrong, but I think $175M is where this is headed. $150M at the low end.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Honestly, I wouldn't expect that. Not even just because Deadpool and Wolverine is opening next weekend, but also because if a movie like Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire can open to $80M, and still miss out on $200M domestically, I don't see how Twisters could do that. 

 

Hopefully I'm proven wrong, but I think $175M is where this is headed. $150M at the low end.

Summer weekdays and market is fairly empty post Deadpool. I am not expecting anything to hit even 40m. 

[Ryan C]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Summer weekdays and market is fairly empty post Deadpool. I am not expecting anything to hit even 40m. 

 

Fair, but even post D&W, you still have Trap, It Ends With Us, and Alien Romulus. None may hit $40M, but are the August releases that will probably provide some competition for Twisters from older audiences. 

 

We'll see, but not until at least the end of weekend can we say is $200M locked or not. Don't wanna set myself up for disappointment. I already did three times this year with Kung Fu Panda 4, Godzilla x Kong, and Bad Boys: Ride or Die barely missing out on that goal when they should've cleared it. 

[excel1]

epic multipliers in coming no doubt. Weekend may hit $90m and strong holds coming up 

Edited July 19 by excel1

[AniNate]

GxK is much more of a fanboy driven IP, at least in the US. Pretty sure it didn't overindex in the same markets that Twisters is.

 

Best historical precedent is Jason Bourne which had a 2.75x multiplier. $70 mil opening would give twisters very good chance at $200 mil, decent chance still if it's lower because it does seem like word of mouth is better than Jason Bourne's and I still don't think pg 13 going against R is the same as PG 13 against pg 13.

[excel1]

1 minute ago, Ryan C said:

 

Fair, but even post D&W, you still have Trap, It Ends With Us, and Alien Romulus. None may hit $40M, but are the August releases that will probably provide some competition for Twisters from older audiences.

 

TRAP is more likely to hit it on opening weekend than miss it in total. Josh's comeback is BFD be serious 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

The takeaway from Twisters’ OW should be that audiences want to see the Midwest getting messed up by Mother Nature.