Labor Day Weekend Thread | Reagan 525K previews, AfrAId 400K

[Boxofficerules]

What are the chances of AfrAId doing better next weekend?

[Ryan C]

Just now, Boxofficerules said:

What are the chances of AfrAId doing better next weekend?

 

-1%

[Eric the Marxist]

I made a top 10 for the summer prediction earlier this year, so might as well look back on it and laugh.

 

On 4/26/2024 at 3:57 PM, Eric Ripley said:

1. Despicable Me 4: 415M

2. Inside Out 2: 400M

3. Deadpool 3: 335M

4. Twisters: 205M

5. Bad Boys: Ride or Die: 180M

6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: 160M

7. Garfield: 145M

8. Fall Guy: 140M

9. IF: 135M

10. A Quiet Place: Day One: 120M

 

The actual top 10 meanwhile is probably:

Quote

1. Inside Out 2: 655M

2. Deadpool 3: 640M

3. Despicable Me 4: 370M

4. Twisters: 270M

5. Bad Boys 4: 193M

6. Kingdom of the Apes 171M

7. It Ends with Us: 150M

8. A Quiet Place: Day One: 139M

9. IF: 111M

10. Alien: Romulus: 100M

 

I was going super conservative because it really seemed like things were going to be bleak and embarrassing for the rest of the year, especially since it seemed like Disney movies and superhero stuff seemed like it would be permanently depressed and down. But alas, I should have never, ever in a million years doubted Mickey's Law. For non-Disney studios, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney movies can bomb...but not because of the law. Not making that mistake again.

 

And all told, despite the law being the law, it was definitely a decent summer all things considered. Still got concerning spots in our NTC hellscape...but it could be worse I suppose.

[lorddemaxus]

29 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Thing is, that would make sense. How does one day make that much of a diiference? However, history has shown us that if you release a massive blockbuster in December and the days allign just right, you're in for a massive run at the box office.

 

Go back to To Force Awakens. It opened on December 18th and its second Friday was Christmas Day (a big moviegoing day). Since reception to the film was fantastic and the days aligned right, it only dropped 40% in its second weekend. 

 

No Way Home arguably had even better reception from audiences than The Force Awakens (It got an A+ on Cinemascore compared to TFA's A) and opened slightly higher than that film ($260M to $247M). No Way Home would've easily had a much stronger second weekend hold had its second Friday been Christmas Day and not Christmas Eve and as we saw with The Force Awakens (which continued to hold well throughtout December and into January) No Way Home would've held just as well. Also, No Way Home had pretty much no competition until The Batman in March, so that's why I said it could've gotten close or maybe even topped $1B domestically. It would've played just as long if not more so than TFA. 

 

Maybe I'm not making sense by saying all of this, but I'm still sticking to my guns that if No Way Home's second Friday was Christmas Day, it would've been the highest-grossing film of all-time domestically. I'm not going to act like this isn't weird, but one day really does make a difference. 

Your sample size here is one movie. We have had movies with way better legs when they had worse calendar configurations (ie. no Christmas Day on that weekend). I mean Jumanji and The Greatest Showman released with the same shitty calendar configuration as TLJ and they had amazing legs. Star Wars (before TLJ) in general has historically been a more leggy franchise than Marvel too so idk if that’s a great comparison.

 

edit: I could see it beat Endgame though with a TFA calendar configuration.

Edited August 31 by lorddemaxus

[JimmyB]

21 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Thing is, that would make sense. How does one day make that much of a diiference? However, history has shown us that if you release a massive blockbuster in December and the days allign just right, you're in for a massive run at the box office.

 

Go back to To Force Awakens. It opened on December 18th and its second Friday was Christmas Day (a big moviegoing day). Since reception to the film was fantastic and the days aligned right, it only dropped 40% in its second weekend. 

 

No Way Home arguably had even better reception from audiences than The Force Awakens (It got an A+ on Cinemascore compared to TFA's A) and opened slightly higher than that film ($260M to $247M). No Way Home would've easily had a much stronger second weekend hold had its second Friday been Christmas Day and not Christmas Eve and as we saw with The Force Awakens (which continued to hold well throughtout December and into January) No Way Home would've held just as well. Also, No Way Home had pretty much no competition until The Batman in March, so that's why I said it could've gotten close or maybe even topped $1B domestically. It would've played just as long if not more so than TFA. 

 

Maybe I'm not making sense by saying all of this, but I'm still sticking to my guns that if No Way Home's second Friday was Christmas Day, it would've been the highest-grossing film of all-time domestically. I'm not going to act like this isn't weird, but one day really does make a difference. 

NWH opening weekend was 13m more than TFA and by day 6 TFA was at 363m and NWH was at 356m.  TFA was already holding way better before Christmas Weekend than NWH.

[Eric the Marxist]

Anyways, this is now an excuse for me to give my top 10 for the rest of the year. This oughta be fun.

 

1. Moana 2 (425M)

2. Joker 2 (405M)

3. Beetlejuice 2 (370M)

4. Mufasa: The Lion King (285M)

5. Sonic 3 (260M)

6. Wicked (230M)

7. Venom 3 (215M)

8. Gladiator 2 (140M)

9. Smile 2 (110M)

10. Transformers One (100M)

 

Joker is the one I’m going super bold on. The initial novelty factor of the first one has been circumvented by both the goodwill of the last movie and especially Gaga’s casting that I can see a decent increase. I’m also assuming its “society!” message will also resonate once again, and the trailers are resonating with damn near everybody. Even me. And I think the first Joker sucks eggs!

 

I had Moana doing somewhere in the 300s, and I think it’s more likely than people care to admit. And I think something like 360M or whatever would still be super impressive and incredibly good, though I know people will whine about how “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER”. But on the other hand, the buzz and excitement seems pretty palatable looking at Quorum metrics, social media, the popularity of that first movie, etc. Just seems like we’re in for a Shrek to Shrek 2-style bump, and that would take us to 410M, so might as well go just a wee bit higher. But again, I think the 300s would still be great for it.

 

Using Maleficent 2’s drop for Mufasa would give it 256M, which is probably where it would be at in the summer or something. So add on a couple extra 30M to the total right there. If it hits those numbers though, we’re probably gonna have a lot of Little Mermaid-style fighting over whether that’s a “good number” or not. Which is not gonna be fun for me! Sonic and Gladiator also seem like they’ll be annoying with a lot of “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER” takes. Oh well.

 

Main thing I accounted for in my own rankings is not just the NTC effect, but also, and more importantly, the Mickey’s Law effect. It’s very clear we’re back in the world where, for non-Disney films, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Joker’s a DC movie, and the masses think every superhero thing is Marvel, so that doesn’t count. But hey! Beetlejuice seems like it will be an exception, barring some Twisters-style collapse overseas.

 

But yeah, the non-NTCs are looking ugly. Wild Robot could get to 100M with good legs, though it’s still frustrating that animated movies, the last bastion where we could get breakout hits that weren’t NTCs, are barely able to get to the century mark unless they have great legs and zero competition. That’s a bad sign for the industry. Both it and Smile 2 seem like the only potential breakouts when it comes to non-NTCs this year. Though I guess there might be a random A24 film that gets to 40M+? Maybe? I dunno. And I guess A Complete Unknown could get to 40M+ too, but that’s also basically an NTC when you get down to it.

We’re gonna have a lot of hits this fall! But it’s still looking bleak! Wish audiences bothered to be daring for once! Oh well!

[junkshop36]

1. Infinity War

2. TG: Maverick

3. Force Awakens

4. JW

5. Avengers

6. Titanic

7. D&W

8. TLJ

9. Endgame

10. Avatar

11. NWH

12. Incredibles 2

13. IO2

14. Black Panther

15. Avatar 2

16. Barbie

 

I think all of these movies range from good to great. The ones near the top are just so much fun and extremely re watchable for me. 

[Eric the Marxist]

28 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Thing is, that would make sense. How does one day make that much of a diiference? However, history has shown us that if you release a massive blockbuster in December and the days allign just right, you're in for a massive run at the box office.

 

Go back to To Force Awakens. It opened on December 18th and its second Friday was Christmas Day (a big moviegoing day). Since reception to the film was fantastic and the days aligned right, it only dropped 40% in its second weekend. 

 

No Way Home arguably had even better reception from audiences than The Force Awakens (It got an A+ on Cinemascore compared to TFA's A) and opened slightly higher than that film ($260M to $247M). No Way Home would've easily had a much stronger second weekend hold had its second Friday been Christmas Day and not Christmas Eve and as we saw with The Force Awakens (which continued to hold well throughtout December and into January) No Way Home would've held just as well. Also, No Way Home had pretty much no competition until The Batman in March, so that's why I said it could've gotten close or maybe even topped $1B domestically. It would've played just as long if not more so than TFA. 

 

Maybe I'm not making sense by saying all of this, but I'm still sticking to my guns that if No Way Home's second Friday was Christmas Day, it would've been the highest-grossing film of all-time domestically. I'm not going to act like this isn't weird, but one day really does make a difference. 

I mean...I guess an extra 50M was lost with Christmas Eve being on Friday...I guess? But you're really overstating how the calendar works. And honestly, I'd argue the Christmas bump in general isn't as extreme as some users here make it out to be. It's there, but a film's not gonna add an extra 200M to a movie's total just because it came out in late December.

[Boxofficerules]

4 minutes ago, Eric Ripley said:

Anyways, this is now an excuse for me to give my top 10 for the rest of the year. This oughta be fun.

 

1. Moana 2 (425M)

2. Joker 2 (405M)

3. Beetlejuice 2 (370M)

4. Mufasa: The Lion King (285M)

5. Sonic 3 (260M)

6. Wicked (230M)

7. Venom 3 (215M)

8. Gladiator 2 (140M)

9. Smile 2 (110M)

10. Transformers One (100M)

 

Joker is the one I’m going super bold on. The initial novelty factor of the first one has been circumvented by both the goodwill of the last movie and especially Gaga’s casting that I can see a decent increase. I’m also assuming its “society!” message will also resonate once again, and the trailers are resonating with damn near everybody. Even me. And I think the first Joker sucks eggs!

 

I had Moana doing somewhere in the 300s, and I think it’s more likely than people care to admit. And I think something like 360M or whatever would still be super impressive and incredibly good, though I know people will whine about how “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER”. But on the other hand, the buzz and excitement seems pretty palatable looking at Quorum metrics, social media, the popularity of that first movie, etc. Just seems like we’re in for a Shrek to Shrek 2-style bump, and that would take us to 410M, so might as well go just a wee bit higher. But again, I think the 300s would still be great for it.

 

Using Maleficent 2’s drop for Mufasa would give it 256M, which is probably where it would be at in the summer or something. So add on a couple extra 30M to the total right there. If it hits those numbers though, we’re probably gonna have a lot of Little Mermaid-style fighting over whether that’s a “good number” or not. Which is not gonna be fun for me! Sonic and Gladiator also seem like they’ll be annoying with a lot of “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER” takes. Oh well.

 

Main thing I accounted for in my own rankings is not just the NTC effect, but also, and more importantly, the Mickey’s Law effect. It’s very clear we’re back in the world where, for non-Disney films, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Joker’s a DC movie, and the masses think every superhero thing is Marvel, so that doesn’t count. But hey! Beetlejuice seems like it will be an exception, barring some Twisters-style collapse overseas.

 

But yeah, the non-NTCs are looking ugly. Wild Robot could get to 100M with good legs, though it’s still frustrating that animated movies, the last bastion where we could get breakout hits that weren’t NTCs, are barely able to get to the century mark unless they have great legs and zero competition. That’s a bad sign for the industry. Both it and Smile 2 seem like the only potential breakouts when it comes to non-NTCs this year. Though I guess there might be a random A24 film that gets to 40M+? Maybe? I dunno. And I guess A Complete Unknown could get to 40M+ too, but that’s also basically an NTC when you get down to it.

We’re gonna have a lot of hits this fall! But it’s still looking bleak! Wish audiences bothered to be daring for once! Oh well!

What about Terrifier 3?

[lorddemaxus]

I have Moana 2 pegged down for the highest grossing movie of the year tbh. 700 mil+

[Ryan C]

26 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Your sample size here is one movie. We have had movies with way better legs when they had worse calendar configurations (ie. no Christmas Day on that weekend). I mean Jumanji and The Greatest Showman released with the same shitty calendar configuration as TLJ and they had amazing legs. Star Wars (before TLJ) in general has historically been a more leggy franchise than Marvel too so idk if that’s a great comparison.

 

edit: I could see it beat Endgame though with a TFA calendar configuration.

 

This'll be the last thing I'll say about this, but I used The Force Awakens as a comparison because it's a big legacy sequel that's part of a franchise that has a massive built-in fanbase yet was also able to appeal to people beyond that. That, and both TFA and NWH opened to nearly identical numbers while also releasing in the almost same identical release date. 

 

Maybe it's not a perfectly ideal comp, but there's not many movies that opened to $200M+ and released in December. 

[WayneBorg]

Interesting fact: by the end of labor day, DM4 and IO2 will have a combined total of $1B domestic. 

[Ryan C]

45 minutes ago, Eric Ripley said:

I made a top 10 for the summer prediction earlier this year, so might as well look back on it and laugh.

 

 

The actual top 10 meanwhile is probably:

 

I was going super conservative because it really seemed like things were going to be bleak and embarrassing for the rest of the year, especially since it seemed like Disney movies and superhero stuff seemed like it would be permanently depressed and down. But alas, I should have never, ever in a million years doubted Mickey's Law. For non-Disney studios, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney movies can bomb...but not because of the law. Not making that mistake again.

 

And all told, despite the law being the law, it was definitely a decent summer all things considered. Still got concerning spots in our NTC hellscape...but it could be worse I suppose.

 

I think the scariest part about all this is that at the start of the year and even right before May started, there was almost no guaranteed box office hits. Despicable Me 4 was arguably the only one that people said was guaranteed to be a massive hit, while everything else was kind of a question mark. Even with Deadpool and Wolverine and Inside Out 2, not many people were immediately calling them slam dunks. 

 

Though with Disney, I think 2023's major problem (alongside the ridiculously high budgets) was the movies that they were putting out. They were movies that either no one wanted to see or weren't good enough to make people want to see them. No one wanted an Indiana Jones 5 (nor was it good enough to justify itself), no one wanted another Haunted Mansion movie, and no one wanted to see Wish after people heard it was mediocre or even bad. Wish could've been as leggy as Elemental, but the weak reception killed any chance of that happening. 

 

This year, the quality was not only there, but these were also movies that people genuinely wanted to see. Everyone wanted to see Deadpool and Wolverine and Inside Out 2, while Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Alien: Romulus were able to bring their fanbases to see them and then some. 

 

Disney can still bring out a massively successful movie, it just has to be the right one. 

[DAJK]

42 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What about Terrifier 3?

10-15M total lmao.

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, Ryan C said:

 

Thing is, that would make sense. How does one day make that much of a diiference? However, history has shown us that if you release a massive blockbuster in December and the days allign just right, you're in for a massive run at the box office.

 

Go back to To Force Awakens. It opened on December 18th and its second Friday was Christmas Day (a big moviegoing day). Since reception to the film was fantastic and the days aligned right, it only dropped 40% in its second weekend. 

 

No Way Home arguably had even better reception from audiences than The Force Awakens (It got an A+ on Cinemascore compared to TFA's A) and opened slightly higher than that film ($260M to $247M). No Way Home would've easily had a much stronger second weekend hold had its second Friday been Christmas Day and not Christmas Eve and as we saw with The Force Awakens (which continued to hold well throughtout December and into January) No Way Home would've held just as well. Also, No Way Home had pretty much no competition until The Batman in March, so that's why I said it could've gotten close or maybe even topped $1B domestically. It would've played just as long if not more so than TFA. 

 

Maybe I'm not making sense by saying all of this, but I'm still sticking to my guns that if No Way Home's second Friday was Christmas Day, it would've been the highest-grossing film of all-time domestically. I'm not going to act like this isn't weird, but one day really does make a difference. 

 

Out of curiosity I took NWH's run and applied TFA's daily drops and increases to it from its first, pre-Christmas Wednesday (the day their runs first begin to noticeably diverge) through to the second Sunday of January. Long story short, I ended up with:

 

125.6m second weekend (505m cume)

76m third weekend (675m cume)

35.7m fourth weekend (735m cume)

 

Using NWH's own legs from fourth weekend on - not including the "more fun stuff" re-release - I arrived at a 885m total with TFA's calendar configuration. And that's the best case scenario because, as someone else said, NWH's daily holds were weaker than TFA's right from the jump. The actual finish if its first Friday fell on December 18 might've been closer to 850m.

[Claire of Themyscira]

Fuck No Way Home! Glad The Force Awakens outsold here.

[Ryan C]

1 hour ago, Eric Ripley said:

Anyways, this is now an excuse for me to give my top 10 for the rest of the year. This oughta be fun.

 

1. Moana 2 (425M)

2. Joker 2 (405M)

3. Beetlejuice 2 (370M)

4. Mufasa: The Lion King (285M)

5. Sonic 3 (260M)

6. Wicked (230M)

7. Venom 3 (215M)

8. Gladiator 2 (140M)

9. Smile 2 (110M)

10. Transformers One (100M)

 

Joker is the one I’m going super bold on. The initial novelty factor of the first one has been circumvented by both the goodwill of the last movie and especially Gaga’s casting that I can see a decent increase. I’m also assuming its “society!” message will also resonate once again, and the trailers are resonating with damn near everybody. Even me. And I think the first Joker sucks eggs!

 

I had Moana doing somewhere in the 300s, and I think it’s more likely than people care to admit. And I think something like 360M or whatever would still be super impressive and incredibly good, though I know people will whine about how “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER”. But on the other hand, the buzz and excitement seems pretty palatable looking at Quorum metrics, social media, the popularity of that first movie, etc. Just seems like we’re in for a Shrek to Shrek 2-style bump, and that would take us to 410M, so might as well go just a wee bit higher. But again, I think the 300s would still be great for it.

 

Using Maleficent 2’s drop for Mufasa would give it 256M, which is probably where it would be at in the summer or something. So add on a couple extra 30M to the total right there. If it hits those numbers though, we’re probably gonna have a lot of Little Mermaid-style fighting over whether that’s a “good number” or not. Which is not gonna be fun for me! Sonic and Gladiator also seem like they’ll be annoying with a lot of “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER” takes. Oh well.

 

Main thing I accounted for in my own rankings is not just the NTC effect, but also, and more importantly, the Mickey’s Law effect. It’s very clear we’re back in the world where, for non-Disney films, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Joker’s a DC movie, and the masses think every superhero thing is Marvel, so that doesn’t count. But hey! Beetlejuice seems like it will be an exception, barring some Twisters-style collapse overseas.

 

But yeah, the non-NTCs are looking ugly. Wild Robot could get to 100M with good legs, though it’s still frustrating that animated movies, the last bastion where we could get breakout hits that weren’t NTCs, are barely able to get to the century mark unless they have great legs and zero competition. That’s a bad sign for the industry. Both it and Smile 2 seem like the only potential breakouts when it comes to non-NTCs this year. Though I guess there might be a random A24 film that gets to 40M+? Maybe? I dunno. And I guess A Complete Unknown could get to 40M+ too, but that’s also basically an NTC when you get down to it.

We’re gonna have a lot of hits this fall! But it’s still looking bleak! Wish audiences bothered to be daring for once! Oh well!

 

Remember when people thought that after Barbie (which is still based on an IP!) that audiences wanted to see more original movies? Those takes are now look gonna look hilarious after Inside Out 2 and potentially Deadpool and Wolverine make slighly more money domestically than Barbie. 

 

In all seriousness though, I think Moana 2 has it in the bag to be the highest-grossing film of the fall. After what happened with Inside Out 2, I would feel stupid to not say that a sequel to one of Disney's most popular and beloved animated films of the past decade would be massive. 

 

Outside of that, I think both Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Joker: Folie á Deux are virtually locked for $300M+. Then Venom: The Last Dance, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, and Mufasa: The Lion King are very good bets to hit $200M+. Gladiator II and Wicked are massive wildcards, but I can't see either falling below $100M domestically. 

 

Whatever happens, just the fact that we're gonna have at least three movies that are guaranteed to open to $100M+ will automatically make this fall so much better than last year's.

 

Edit: Wonka was the only movie of the 2023 Fall Season to make more than $200M domestically. If everything goes right, we could have 7 or 8 movies make more than $200M.

Edited August 31 by Ryan C

[Jake Gittes]

Anyway lately every time I see a post about how this or that obscenely successful movie sadly couldn't make even more money, all I can hear in my head is that Wolf of Wall Street line about Leo being pissed off because he was making "just shy of a million a week"

Edited August 31 by Jake Gittes

[Eric the Marxist]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

Anyway lately every time I see a post about how this or that obscenely successful movie sadly couldn't make even more money, all I can hear in my head is that Wolf of Wall Street line about Leo being pissed off because he was making "just shy of a million a week".

Dune 2 and Wonka should have made more though. Just because.

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, Ryan C said:

 

Thing is, that would make sense. How does one day make that much of a diiference? However, history has shown us that if you release a massive blockbuster in December and the days allign just right, you're in for a massive run at the box office.

 

Go back to To Force Awakens. It opened on December 18th and its second Friday was Christmas Day (a big moviegoing day). Since reception to the film was fantastic and the days aligned right, it only dropped 40% in its second weekend. 

 

No Way Home arguably had even better reception from audiences than The Force Awakens (It got an A+ on Cinemascore compared to TFA's A) and opened slightly higher than that film ($260M to $247M). No Way Home would've easily had a much stronger second weekend hold had its second Friday been Christmas Day and not Christmas Eve and as we saw with The Force Awakens (which continued to hold well throughtout December and into January) No Way Home would've held just as well. Also, No Way Home had pretty much no competition until The Batman in March, so that's why I said it could've gotten close or maybe even topped $1B domestically. It would've played just as long if not more so than TFA. 

 

Maybe I'm not making sense by saying all of this, but I'm still sticking to my guns that if No Way Home's second Friday was Christmas Day, it would've been the highest-grossing film of all-time domestically. I'm not going to act like this isn't weird, but one day really does make a difference. 

The real reason that NWH dropped harder than usual in 2nd week is because of COVID. There was an Omicron surge in late December/January which hindered legs. I think that was the worst of COVID in terms of deaths.

 

However, NWH had a very empty market so some people who normally would have seen it in the first 2-3 weeks instead saw it in February/March. The business was shifted around.

 

The idea that calendar config alone can add $200m is ridiculous. There’s no way 15 million+ extra people would’ve seen NWH just because Christmas fell on a different day or something.

 

Edited August 31 by Bob Train