Labor Day Weekend Thread | Reagan 525K previews, AfrAId 400K

[Migs20242]

Just woke up and saw the news that IO2 has finally demolish The Lion King 2019 worldwide while Deadpool & Wolverine reached 600 million domestic. Congrats to Inside Out 2 and DPW. 

 

Expect IO2 to surpass Jurassic World domestically and internationally next weekend.

 

I still think Moana 2 will win this year's fall/winter box office season.

[HummingLemon496]

Moana 2 will be the third $600M+ DOM movie of the year.

[Migs20242]

Domestic overall box office comparison between Jurassic World, Deadpool and Wolverine, and Inside Out 2 after 39 days.

 

JW - $612,601,315

 

DPW - $603,808,117

 

IO2 - $598,220,838

 

At this rate, IO2 will be catching up Deadpool and Wolverine in the next couple of days as we approach autumn season.

Edited September 2 by Migs20242

[HummingLemon496]

4 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, and that doesn’t make a difference to the point I made. Deadpool and Wolverine’s gross would’ve been a much more plausible prediction than Barbie’s

Making a Deadpool 3 > Barbie domestic club in November 2023 would've been the same as making a Deadpool 3 above $636M DOM club. And everybody would've called that ridiculous especially fresh out of The Marvels bombing. And yet it happened which is insane.

 

But yes out of the two Barbie is the more impressive overperformance, a bunch of people were saying sub-$100M DOM total for Barbie lmao.

 

Read what Legion said, this is basically what I mean:

Lol, cmon man. It would have seemed like a duh moment before either came out, but people would have found it absurd after Barbie. To suggest otherwise is pure revisionism, we have lots of examples of what people were thinking at the time in the movie thread and various clubs 

[Krissykins]

Still no international updates for The Crow & Blink Twice.

 

Blink Twice’s opening international weekend was updated so quickly too. Maybe the holiday skewing things. 

[CJohn]

33 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Still no international updates for The Crow & Blink Twice.

 

Blink Twice’s opening international weekend was updated so quickly too. Maybe the holiday skewing things. 

Twisters, Blink Twice and Trap are all WB OS and none got their OS number updated. I blame the holiday.

[John Marston]

Universal projecting even higher for Twisters

 

[Mojoguy]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Universal projecting even higher for Twisters

 

Imagine how much more money Twisters would have made if released in mid August and not the week before D&W.

[Killimano3]

I'm not saying it's impossible but why do some people seem convinced Moana is going to get that close to IO2?

 

Is there any reason to believe it would outperform Frozen 2 to such an insane degree?

[CJohn]

26 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Universal projecting even higher for Twisters

 

Cinema wins.

[emoviefan]

39 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Imagine how much more money Twisters would have made if released in mid August and not the week before D&W.

Eh First weekend of July would have been far better for it. The fourth of July weekend and then 3 weeks of summer weekdays before the next live action tentpole. By mid August they are losing the summer weekdays. 

[Bob Train]

they should've switched DM4 and Twisters dates. DM4 would get more distance from IO2 and Twisters would have gotten more PLF time.

[Assassin]

 

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Still no international updates for The Crow & Blink Twice.

 

Blink Twice’s opening international weekend was updated so quickly too. Maybe the holiday skewing things. 

ComScore only reported the top 5 movie on their weekend worldwide chart instead of the usual top 10. Maybe that's got something to do with it. 

 

[John Marston]

44 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Eh First weekend of July would have been far better for it. The fourth of July weekend and then 3 weeks of summer weekdays before the next live action tentpole. By mid August they are losing the summer weekdays. 

 

 

sadly I don’t think Universal was ever going to give up a prime release date for their Minions franchise so that was never going to happen 

[emoviefan]

17 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

sadly I don’t think Universal was ever going to give up a prime release date for their Minions franchise so that was never going to happen 

Yep that is their prize franchise along with the Jurassic and the way diminished Fast one.

[Godzilla]

38 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

they should've switched DM4 and Twisters dates. DM4 would get more distance from IO2 and Twisters would have gotten more PLF time.

I don’t agree with this. 4th of July Weekend is prime real estate for big franchise films like Despicable Me. I actually think Twisters did about as well it could domestically. Just bombed overseas. I think they should’ve released it internationally later after Deadpool & Wolverine. The big success in the US could’ve helped drive the hype in other countries. 

[wattage]

Universal was never going to put Despicable Me in a worse position, as far as they were concerned Inside Out wasn't going to be putting up biggest animated movie of all time numbers, nobody thought that was happening and they were operating under that assumption. The Father's Day to July 4th distance between Illumination and Pixar films is one that's happened many many times before without majorly damaging their films, in fact they usually came out on top. Why would they ever want to move.

 

And at least domestically Inside Out didn't really do any damage, international is where we saw multiple countries where Despicable Me couldn't even debut at number 1 above Inside Out.

 

They were also never going to move Twisters up a week and take away a weeks worth of PLFS from the movie for an untested rebootquel. Even if Despicable Me isn't heavy on that it's still a lot of extra revenue for a top performing franchise. And putting it after Deadpool outside of prime summer would be terrible and it definitely would've made less money. 

 

The reality is just Universal was in a rough position because the movie wasn't done in time, the movie would've cleaned up in May but it just wasn't ready yet. Domestically they made the best of the situation and the movie still performed strongly domestically. International is a whole different story though, I think WB should've moved that date but it is what it is. 

[TalismanRing]

6 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

I'm not saying it's impossible but why do some people seem convinced Moana is going to get that close to IO2?

 

Is there any reason to believe it would outperform Frozen 2 to such an insane degree?

 

https://www.cartoonbrew.com/streaming/the-7-most-streamed-films-last-year-were-all-animated-237455.html

 

Leading last year’s list was Disney’s 2016 animated feature Moana, which has figured in the top four for four years straight. More impressive, the now eight-year-old film scored Nielsen’s all-time single-year high of 11.6 billion viewing minutes. Since Nielsen began tracking streaming data, people have watched almost 80 billion minutes of Moana, approximately 152,200 years, which equates to roughly 775 million full viewings of the film.

 

Edited September 2 by TalismanRing

[AniNate]

Moana's definitely a much bigger IP than the box office of the original indicates though I'm still hesitant to say it's a $600mil movie. I think IO2 was helped by a lot of intangible factors such as being the first buzzy family film in like forever and renewed Pixar brand interest after Elemental. WDA isn't really in the same position coming off two bombs, and I'm still uncertain about the execution here given it's pretty much an emergency cash grab.

 

 

Edited September 3 by AniNate

[Ryan C]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Moana's definitely a much bigger IP than the box office of the original indicates though I'm still hesitant to say it's a $600mil movie. I think IO2 was helped by a lot of intangible factors such as being the first buzzy family film in like forever and renewed Pixar brand interest after Elemental. WDA isn't really in the same position coming off two bombs, and I'm still uncertain about the execution here being given it's pretty much an emergency cash grab.

 

Honestly, though I'm sure Moana 2 is gonna be a big hit for Disney (I'll say $600M domestically if reviews are good) I don't really have much faith that WDAS can become a place where purely original animated films can thrive and be at least Elemental-level successful. 

 

Between the bombing of Strange World and the very weak reception that Wish received from critics and audiences, I think their reputation is in a much more critical condition than Pixar. Heck, I'm willing to say that Pixar as a brand is so much more appealing for general audiences than WDAS. 

 

It doesn't help either that we have to wait till November 2026 (after Moana 2 and Zootopia 2) to see if they can still release a successful original film, while Pixar has Elio and Hoppers coming out  after Inside Out 2.