Weekend Numbers | 09.27 - 09.29, 2024 | Actuals | 35.79M THE WILD ROBOT | 16.22M BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE | 9.16 TRANSFORMERS ONE

[wattage]

IMAX and PLF were driving 43% of sales this weekend to factor that in to drops next weekend for The Wild Robot

Edited Sunday at 11:47 PM by wattage

[Potiki]

20 hours ago, CheeseWizard said:

I should not have read this at 4am on minimal sleep, my tiny brain is in pain now, but I think I get it 

 

Also kind of unconnected; I know of Encanto as an example, but how often is it that a movie bombs at the box office and then succeeds primarily due to streaming/vods or whatever nowadays? 

 

8 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

I'm not sure but everyone reiterates strong correlation between box office adn results. I know Madame Web was a streaming hit and it really looks to me like Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare significantly overindexed on VOD (it's been hanging around the top 10 charts aggregated on Mediaplaynews for a long time)

I actually have suspected there isn't a strong correlation between Box Office and streaming success for a while due to how the likes of big domestic hits like TGM, Avatar 2 and Wakanda Forever have performed on streaming (could argue that long windows and burnt off demand had an impact on weak streaming numbers) but now someone has compiled data to prove this. 

 

Source: https://netflixandchiffres.substack.com/p/the-data-is-really-in-straight-to

 

I think a much higher correlation is genre (animated movies and original action film outperform) and platform (Netflix and Disney+ account for the vast majority of the most watched movies). Obviously an outlier but NWH went to Starz as its first window post box office and while we don't have any data I doubt I performed like any of the Disney+ MCU movies whereas on Netflix I think I would have done very well.

 

Also Netflix gave their top titles of the first half of the year and 9 of the top 30 most streamed films were Uni animation films, even though they were not available globally:

 

Which is positive news for Wild Robot's future. I think the Netflix and Universal Animation deal is great for both companies, great exposure and money for Universal and strong performance for Netflix.

 

As far as something like an Encanto though which probably turned profitable for Disney after bombing at the box office I would guess that is very rare; it likely made a bunch of merchandising, make shift park attractions/engagements, the album selling bunch etc. which is rare for most movies and even more so outside of Disney and maybe Uni to a lesser degree. For instance I doubt any bombs for Sony that did well on Netflix would get a significant amount more money (if any more money at all) as usually the money bonuses in Pay-1 come from films hitting box office milestones.

[wattage]

23 minutes ago, Potiki said:

I think a much higher correlation is genre (animated movies and original action film outperform) and platform (Netflix and Disney+ account for the vast majority of the most watched movies). 

 

That's basically the only conclusion I drew from all the data as well. There's just certain types of films that perform better on streaming in general. Kids tend to watch films over and over and over again and a lot action films are quick and easy fun watches, like Equalizer 3. And even if a popular animated film is on Peacock+ or something, it's not really gonna drive traffic heavily that way enough to overcome whatever older films Netflix has like Sing 2 or something. Families are just gonna watch what's on one of the two or so popular streamers they own and wait for movies to eventually land on there. Netflix and D+ primarily. 

[John Marston]

The Mario movie has been on Netflix's top ten basically the whole year. Crazy

[Flopped]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

The Mario movie has been on Netflix's top ten basically the whole year. Crazy

 

Yeah it's always there. Netflix is low key a babysitting service. Throw your kid in front of the tv and press play. Boss Baby was there forever too. Same with that animated movie Rihanna voiced that came and went. Major release animated movies aimed at young children thrive on Netflix. 

[eddyxx]

So I don’t usually go to movies this late but I wanted to see The Substance since people keep talking about it and it’s only got 2 showtimes at my theater. Fucking hell what a wild movie.

[HummingLemon496]

u/AgentCooper315 on Reddit is saying that passing Barbie DOM is a 50/50 for Deadpool 3 and that it will depend on how it drops on Joker weekend

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 hours ago, Potiki said:

 

I actually have suspected there isn't a strong correlation between Box Office and streaming success for a while due to how the likes of big domestic hits like TGM, Avatar 2 and Wakanda Forever have performed on streaming (could argue that long windows and burnt off demand had an impact on weak streaming numbers) but now someone has compiled data to prove this. 

 

Source: https://netflixandchiffres.substack.com/p/the-data-is-really-in-straight-to

 

I think a much higher correlation is genre (animated movies and original action film outperform) and platform (Netflix and Disney+ account for the vast majority of the most watched movies). Obviously an outlier but NWH went to Starz as its first window post box office and while we don't have any data I doubt I performed like any of the Disney+ MCU movies whereas on Netflix I think I would have done very well.

 

Also Netflix gave their top titles of the first half of the year and 9 of the top 30 most streamed films were Uni animation films, even though they were not available globally:

 

Based on my own experiences as a kid, I really wonder what it looks like if animated/pure kids movies were classified alongside tv shows instead of films. The repeated engagement by a single household on an animated film is no doubt valuable but I think it just means something different. This is the one place where I'd expect a *significant* deviation between "quasi-views" and actual households watched. The idea of rewatching a specific film over and over in tiny chunks isn't unheard of for some films people owned on DVD but it's just a semi-regular occurrence for even average kids movies they have access to. 

 

Quote

genre: box office & Streaming

 

on that front: when parrot released their "demand" metric they published some value of streaming v. box office by genre averages that matches up with that. Obviously, Parrot metrics are inherently wonky but I was able to quickly find it. 

Edited yesterday at 01:56 AM by PlatnumRoyce

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, wattage said:

IMAX and PLF were driving 43% of sales this weekend to factor that in to drops next weekend for The Wild Robot

 

I'm surprised it's that high tbh. It had to share screens with Devara, Megalopolis and Beetlejuice and it didn't look like presales around me particularly favored the PLF.

 

Same PLF share as Inside Out 2 so I guess a 40%+ drop is inevitable next week. Hopefully that's the only obstacle it has the rest of its run.

[ThomasNicole]

Saw Transformers, it’s weirdly not exactly a kids movie but not very mature either. 
 

You can guess this from the trailer, but the movie as a whole has this weird feel of “who’s the target?”. 

The jokes are childish, yet there’s echoes of Martin Luther King Jr and Malcolm X in the social dynamics. The action sometimes are violent, yet the plot are simplistic to the point of being boring for adults. 
 

It’s not bad, pretty okayish and acceptable as it is, but i can see why it’s not clicking despite the semi-good reviews.

[wattage]

14 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

I'm surprised it's that high tbh. It had to share screens with Devara, Megalopolis and Beetlejuice and it didn't look like presales around me particularly favored the PLF.

 

Same PLF share as Inside Out 2 so I guess a 40%+ drop is inevitable next week. Hopefully that's the only obstacle it has the rest of its run.

In my area at least, PLF was selling a lot, especially Dolby. When I was checking the weekend sales on Thursday and Friday and through the weekend the Dolby showings would be near sold out usually long before the digital showtimes around the same time were near sold out and this was days in advance sometimes. The movie is very stylistically interesting and the trailers make it look like it's worth the PLF, so I think that's driving business that way this weekend. Depending on the amount of digital showtimes it gets next week that might help soften it to a high 30s drop. Maybe. 

 

Majority of the walkup business I was seeing was for regular showtimes since they were the ones with less seats sold 1-2 hours before showtime. 

[emoviefan]

22 minutes ago, wattage said:

In my area at least, PLF was selling a lot, especially Dolby. When I was checking the weekend sales on Thursday and Friday and through the weekend the Dolby showings would be near sold out usually long before the digital showtimes around the same time were near sold out and this was days in advance sometimes. The movie is very stylistically interesting and the trailers make it look like it's worth the PLF, so I think that's driving business that way this weekend. Depending on the amount of digital showtimes it gets next week that might help soften it to a high 30s drop. Maybe. 

 

Majority of the walkup business I was seeing was for regular showtimes since they were the ones with less seats sold 1-2 hours before showtime. 

Okay it should still do at least 20 m. With that 78 million budget all good if it stabilizes in the following weeks.

[Mojoguy]

Megalopolis joins the group of biggest bombs of the year which include Fall Guy, Furiosa, Horizon, The Crow, and Borderlands. Terrible OWs that showed complete rejection.

 

Joker could be the next.

Edited yesterday at 03:03 AM by Mojoguy

[Mojoguy]

 

 

[HummingLemon496]

Joker 2 is in only 4 days. . .crazy

[charlie Jatinder]

26 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

 

 

womp womp

[AniNate]

Still a hail mary miracle shot for my club if TWR has Puss 2 post-holiday legs. A 39% weekly drop and then big boost MLK weekend. TWR does have Indigenous Day to help.

 

I know, just let me dream please. 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 03:56 AM by AniNate

[AnthonyJPHer]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Still a hail mary miracle shot for my club if TWR has Puss 2 post-holiday legs. A 39% weekly drop and then big boost MLK weekend. TWR does have Indigenous Day to help.

 

I know, just let me dream please. 

 

 

Even with Puss in Boots 2 legs, which is a long shot, that only gets The Wild Robot to around 180m. I think it’d need to INCREASE next weekend to have any shot and that’s just not going to happen. No matter how good the word of mouth is. Especially in September with no holidays. Still, not a bad start for the movie. I think 170m DOM and 350m WW is a good target. 

[AniNate]

Puss' week take from 12/30-01/05 was $30.2 mil and it made $142mil after December 29. That's a 4.7x week multiplier. The post holiday break drop works as comparable to a PLF loss drop I think. Assuming TWR's week take is around $44 mil total that would be a scenario that puts it over $200mil.

 

Problem of course is Puss had zero competition even longer than TWR does and it was able to milk that all the way through March. But hey, it's a reason to not declare my club dead yet.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 04:12 AM by AniNate

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

 

 

Francis you have made some of the greatest movies of all time and no MCU movie is better than Godfathers 1 and 2  but just go sit on your lawn or at your vineyard and yell at the clouds or whatever.