Weekdays (14-17th October) - BeetleJuice 2 : 1,27M ; Joker 2 : 930K ; TWR- 3,5M ; Terrifier 3 : 2,5M

[wattage]

32 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It won’t continue, as it was a holiday Monday bump. 
 

Great for Wild Robot & Terrifier 3. 
 

I took my niece to see Wrong Turn & Freddy vs Jason after we bought tickets for Finding Nemo and Pirates of the Caribbean. I was 16 and she was 11.

 

I know the UK are much more strict though. Bet it’s easier nowadays. 

Definitely gotta be easier nowadays with being able to see just how many tickets are sold, in what location, etc. I would've killed for that as a kid. I'd just check showtimes closest to the movie we wanted to see and then pray the movie we were sneaking in to had empty seats that weren't in the front row lol. 

[Cooper Legion]

13 hours ago, CheeseWizard said:

Starting to look like Joker might even fall behind TFOne this week. I know I’m new, but hell I can’t remember the last time I saw word of mouth so toxic that a movie that earned nearly 40 mil on opening weekend might not even make it past 60.

One reason you might not be able to remember it is that it's never happened. The highest OW to miss 60M is the devil inside with ~33.7M. Onward just barely made it over despite being mostly killed by covid in its 2nd weekend

[Cooper Legion]

As for TWR I think I've missed some of the discussion but 30% weekly holds from the most recent mon-aun would take it to low 130s, ~2.5M bonus cash from Columbus day makes that maybe 135ish. Following cloudy from the comunbus tues-mon would be just 127ish. Still thinking O/U 130

[Cooper Legion]

Joker could make it to 61.7 following Hallowen ends for the rest but I suspect it will do considerable worse. Maybe 58.5-60.5 after a 3rd weekend gutting

[AniNate]

I would think Beetlejuice would raise far less suspicions as a Terrifier sneak ruse if a big group of teens bought tickets for it. Have to imagine that benefited moreso than Wild Robot, and it did have an unusually good hold this week too.

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by AniNate

[justnumbers]

Kids wanna get gory

Edited 9 hours ago by justnumbers

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

Any auteur driven blockbuster/cbm movies or Elseworld stories are probably gonna get shot down after Eternals, Marvels, and Joker 2. At least the fanboys can have Hugh Jackman come back as Wolverine until he's 96.

 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, wattage said:

Definitely gotta be easier nowadays with being able to see just how many tickets are sold, in what location, etc. I would've killed for that as a kid. I'd just check showtimes closest to the movie we wanted to see and then pray the movie we were sneaking in to had empty seats that weren't in the front row lol. 

Oh yes! I snuck into a sold out show of 28 Days Later with friends which meant a group couldn’t get seats, one of them turned out to be a very famous singer here in the UK 😂

[wattage]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

I would think Beetlejuice would raise far less suspicions as a Terrifier sneak ruse if a big group of teens bought tickets for it. Have to imagine that benefited moreso than Wild Robot, and it did have an unusually good hold this week too.

 

 

I just think in general if kids are sneaking they're just picking whatever movie has times closer to the one they're looking for and not really caring which movie in particular it is. That's how I was at least. I still don't buy it boosting anything a huge amount in the first place. Nothing about any movies performance was abnormal, except maybe Joker capsizing despite the holiday. It's getting closer to Halloween I actually expect Beetlejuice to start seeing better holds as we get closer. 

 

Terrifier was selling extremely well on its own and had limited seating and showtimes that were noted to be running up against capacity issues. It's not 2004, kids don't buy tickets to sneak in to showings and then magically discover they're sold out. The seat allocations are right there online for anyone to see. They can be stupid but not that stupid lol. I'd actually have an easier time believing some kids wanted to see Terrifier and it was sold out and so business spilled over into other films. 

Edited 8 hours ago by wattage

[titanic2187]

10 hours ago, WebSurfer said:

 

Wtf???

Not gonna deny sure there are somebody out there doing this but big enough to move the trend? I seriously doubt so. TWR's past weekend hold has been great but not insane considering its great WOM, holiday weekend, lack of competition and regain of some PLF. Nothing unusual in TWR's hold.  PIB2 hold at the same point of run is what define "insane". 

[wattage]

25 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Oh yes! I snuck into a sold out show of 28 Days Later with friends which meant a group couldn’t get seats, one of them turned out to be a very famous singer here in the UK 😂

My very last R rated sneak in attempt pre-assigned seating was humiliating enough that I stopped for a long time after. Usually people just tell you to get up because it's sold out and you're way in the front and they know you're not supposed to be there but some older couple called the staff on us for Watchmen 😅 it was a never again moment for that corner of the friend group. 

[CheeseWizard]

2 hours ago, Cooper Legion said:

One reason you might not be able to remember it is that it's never happened. The highest OW to miss 60M is the devil inside with ~33.7M. Onward just barely made it over despite being mostly killed by covid in its 2nd weekend

Fucking hell. If Joker misses 60 it might be an all time failure even moreso than it already is? Wtf

I wonder how well onward would’ve done if Covid didn’t happen.

 

2 hours ago, Cooper Legion said:

Joker could make it to 61.7 following Hallowen ends for the rest but I suspect it will do considerable worse. Maybe 58.5-60.5 after a 3rd weekend gutting

How much of a gutting? Furiosa got gutted by 880 despite making only 26mil in its opening, and, 12 days in, had the exact same amount as Joker, despite joker opening to 38. 
Is there a chance it’s theatre count goes under 2000?
 

 

[CheeseWizard]

32 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Oh yes! I snuck into a sold out show of 28 Days Later with friends which meant a group couldn’t get seats, one of them turned out to be a very famous singer here in the UK 😂

Was it Robbie Williams? Cus if it’s him, we better hope he isn’t petty enough to call you out in his new monkey movie 

[wattage]

If we're doing Joker theater loss predictions I'm going 1.8k-1.9k max. I'd say well over 2k+ if there was a bigger release other than Smile 2 this weekend. The theaters need all the revenue they can get, the bigger ones will shove it in the back or have it share a screen with something else but they'll still keep it around to make what bit of money it can for them before dumping it on Venom weekend. 

Edited 8 hours ago by wattage
Typo

[M37]

9 hours ago, wattage said:

That can help and the film veers more towards mid 20s drops for some weeks vs high 20s like CP.

And even that would only be a marginal improvement on final total because the baseline is already low; like +10-25% or $55-$65M more (from this past Thursday) instead of an already optimistic $50M

 

There’s nothing in the numbers thus far that suggests some magical holding run is about to commence for TWR; despite the strong 3 & 4 day numbers, the Sat/Sat drop this past weekend was still -32.5%. As a comparison, for MLK weekend, Puss in Boots was +1.6% Sat/Sat before stringing together 8 consecutive sub-30% Saturday drops through February (-10/ 8/ 25/ 22/ 14/ 22/ 21/ 14%). Even an Argo type run from now through Dec 19 would only be a 2.61x of last weeks $25M, or ~$65M more, or $135M total. There is no reason, even accounting for the lack of completion, to set expectations any higher than that 

[AniNate]

If TWR followed the Antz multiplier from its holiday week (assuming $20mil for this week optimistically), that would put it at about a $140mil finish. Not much bigger but still a goal to aim for.

 

I'm not someone who goes into histrionics if my lofty expectations fail, though, mostly just hoping for the best until I'm absolutely forced to accept otherwise. Not gonna give up on my $200mil club until it actually drops below a $2mil weekend and shows itself to have exhausted its demand.

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by AniNate

[M37]

32 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Fucking hell. If Joker misses 60 it might be an all time failure even moreso than it already is? Wtf

 

Lowest Opening Week to Final Gross multis

(off the top of my head, I'm sure there's more, especially on lower grossing end, feel free to add!)

• Friday the 13th (2009) = $65.0/$47.2 = 1.38x
• Devil Inside: $53.3/$38.3 = 1.39x
• Halloween Ends = $64.1/$46.2 = 1.39x (day & date)
• Flash: $108.1/$72.3 = 1.49x
• The Marvels = $84.5/$54.8 = 1.54x
• Halloween Kills = $90.0/$58.6 = 1.57x (day & date)
• Batman vs Superman: $330.4/$209.1 = 1.58x
• The Suicide Squad: $55.8/$35.2 = 1.59x
• Fantastic Four (2015): $56.1/$34.0 = 1.65x

 

Joker Folie a Duex, if it were to finish at $60M, would be... 1.35x. Would need to claw its way over $66M to avoid a worse run than Flash. All time collapse territory is correct, especially for a $30M+ OW opening film.

[wattage]

34 minutes ago, M37 said:

 $135M total. There is no reason, even accounting for the lack of completion, to set expectations any higher than that 

That's right in the range I said was it's optimistic endpoint. I said it could get in the 130-140 range in the post prior to the one you replied to with the incorrect correction, it was a continuation of that convo. I like doing 10 intervals so the 140 is there but 135ish is right in there and about where I'd like it to land and think it can. It's gonna do whatever it's gonna do in the next weeks until Gladicked (?) weekend and I'm gonna observe. I don't think it's gonna make Elemental money or something and need to be talked down from too high a goal I think, I'd just like it to cross Migration by more than a hair. That's where I'm at anyway.

Edited 7 hours ago by wattage

[AniNate]

I think Glicked rolls off the tongue pretty well

[M37]

47 minutes ago, wattage said:

If we're doing Joker theater loss predictions I'm going 1.8k-1.9k max. I'd say well over 2k+ if there was a bigger release other than Smile 2 this weekend. The theaters need all the revenue they can get, the bigger ones will shove it in the back or have it share a screen with something else but they'll still keep it around to make what bit of money it can for them before dumping it on Venom weekend. 

I'd even take the under there.  The $1700 PTA while low, was still 6th highest in release, and it already endured a lot of show loss (going from 4+ screens to 1-2) this past week already.  Flash only dropped 1500 locations mid-summer for week 3 after its -72% second weekend, I don't why there's a hurry to run Joker out when there's not really anything better to fill with