Avengers: $18.7m!

[spizzer]

Oh you're right. I forgot about Dead Man's Chest. It still should end up in that clump of THG, SM1, DH2, and NM that all around the same.

Yeah. Once we get the dynamics of the weekend breakdown we'll be able to make a better estimate.

[fmpro]

I would not be shocked to see this reach $73-75 million today. But I also don't think we should extrapolate too much from the midnight number.Either way, I still see the record going down.

[Fullbuster]

I will be satisfied if it beats TDK.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I think he meant relative to it getting to 280-320m. Which of course is correct.

Hey, I predicted 163m, so I thought its total would be "in line" with TDK, and I hate to extrapolate from Midnights, but for it to make the same midnight number as TDK during this time of the year, indicates it's probably going higher. And his implication was that this would perform like TDK over the rest of the weekend. That implies similar dailies to me.Maybe I'm just being overly critical, but saying that right after a ridiculous extrapolation from IM2...I dunno, I just don't like that article much.

[The Dark Alfred]

Nothing changed. I expected 20m and 163m OW, so it's still in line with my prediction. Of course the record can go down, but the jury is still out. It's going to be decided by its Saturday and Sunday gross, so even a 70m+ Friday wouldn't seal it for me.

[Shawn Robbins]

Ray's article?Yea, I was a bit surprised that he even made that extrapolation. I get his ultimate reasoning, I think, but it just seemed unnecessary to me.

[spizzer]

Let's say it hits 70M flat18.7M Midnights51.3M Friday 53.1M Saturday (+3.5%)38.5M Sunday (-27.5%)161.6M OWTBH that Friday number would look pretty weak to me

[Shawn Robbins]

It looks like TA sold about 30-35% more tickets than SM3 did at midnight. Granted, SM3 didn't have quite as wide a midnight release (IIRC).

I still see a similar weekend performance. Saturday is going to be huge for this thing.

[spizzer]

I agree Shawn. I think Saturday will top 60M.Which, due to massive inflation, still falls well short of the attendance record

[Hatebox]

TA doing a huge OW only makes me think TDKR will do even better than I previously thought.

[vc2002]

So the admissions talk begins even TA hasnt broken the record yet?

[spizzer]

TA won't sniff any admissions records

[Fake]

I still see ~70M as most likely.

[redfirebird2008]

So the admissions talk begins even TA hasnt broken the record yet?

What's wrong with it? From SM1 to DMC to SM3 to TDK, the opening revenue record used to translate into opening admissions records. Potter 8 broke that trend and now it looks like that will become the norm going forward.

[grey ghost]

That one is at a huge disadvantage without 3D. And ghost, do you really think people aren't willing to pay the premium to see a movie they've been waiting for on opening weekend? Opening weekends are all about anticipation and hype. People are willing to pay the premium. Hell, the studios could stick a movie on 100% 3D screens and people would still pay to see it no matter what.

But a movie has to be good or at least popular to warrant that kind of dedication.and if a movie motivates more people to pay higher premiums the records it breaks are fair game. Not just any movie can achieve that with higher prices.

[redfirebird2008]

But a movie has to be good or at least popular to warrant that kind of dedication.and if a movie motivates more people to pay higher premiums the records it breaks are fair game. Not just any movie can achieve that with higher prices.

When we're talking about movies that sold tickets in the same neighborhood as SM1, TDK, SM3, and DMC, we're talking about movies that had some of the biggest demand ever on opening weekend. They definitely would have benefited in the same way from the 3D premiums just like DH2 and Avengers are benefiting from it.

[baumer]

This will be my first and only post for a while, as I just got back from my second viewing of Avengers in 9 hours. So I have to take a nap..lol.....but my theater was insane today. My 10:30 IMAX was about 90% full. The Imax after that had sold out and the 7 and 10:30 IMAX were already sold out. The 3D's were selling "well" and the 2D has one sell out for 7 tonight. I think this will do 75-80 OD, with midnights. Now some shut eye.

[Shawn Robbins]

What's wrong with it? From SM1 to DMC to SM3 to TDK, the opening revenue record used to translate into opening admissions records. Potter 8 broke that trend and now it looks like that will become the norm going forward.

Agreed. I've felt for awhile that the dynamic between TDKR and TA will be perfect. TA has a great shot at the gross record, but I still firmly believe TDKR will sell more tickets.Long run, though...who knows. TA's word of mouth is going to be sick and it has little to stand in its way.

[Hatebox]

But a movie has to be good or at least popular to warrant that kind of dedication.and if a movie motivates more people to pay higher premiums the records it breaks are fair game. Not just any movie can achieve that with higher prices.

That's true if it has good legs, but if someone's willing to see a 2.5 hour movie at midnight on a weekday then the 3D surcharge is negligible to them.

[spizzer]

This will be my first and only post for a while, as I just got back from my second viewing of Avengers in 9 hours. So I have to take a nap..lol.....but my theater was insane today. My 10:30 IMAX was about 90% full. The Imax after that had sold out and the 7 and 10:30 IMAX were already sold out. The 3D's were selling "well" and the 2D has one sell out for 7 tonight. I think this will do 75-80 OD, with midnights. Now some shut eye.

Night B. And I agree with your range