May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[riczhang]

You're assuming that the $67m figure doesn't take this into account. It might.

Generally, estimates that early don't take those into account.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I'm serious, if the number comes in at anything less than 70m, I'll be shocked. I was really expecting something more like this when I made my original 163m prediction:

Midnights: 11m

Friday: 53m(Total Friday- 64m)

Saurday: 58m

Sunday: 41m

OW: 163m

Even though my Fri number is close to what's being projected right now, I figured FriDAY would be higher and that would hold over the weekend. Now, if the number is 67, the projection looks uglier:

Midnights: 18.7m

Friday: 48.3m(Total Friday- 67m)

Saurday: 53m

Sunday: 37m

OW: 162m

Which when you take out the midnights is basically the same as IM2's attendance. All of this hype and all it really did was bring more people in for midnight shows? I'm 100% certain this will have better legs than IM2, but still...the Friday number has to be higher and the business for the rest of the weekend has to be better.

[Biggestgeekever]

Sellouts have finally exploded here in Seattle now that people are off work. We're apparently a lazy bunch that don't believe in advance ticketing.

[friendofnarnia]

I know it is rare for estimates to go up with Nikki, but in this case I think it will. As many have mentioned, matinees were on part with The Dark Knight, (which opened in the summer), so how can Friday be any less than 67M?

[spizzer]

I know it is rare for estimates to go up with Nikki, but in this case I think it will. As many have mentioned, matinees were on part with The Dark Knight, (which opened in the summer), so how can Friday be any less than 67M?

Matinees were ahead of TDK by a just a tad bit. Because it's May, business will be backloaded into the evening. I expect nothing less than 70M

[lab276]

I'm disappointed by it quite frankly.

[Neo]

I'm disappointed by it quite frankly.

What were you expecting? 170M+ is in play how can an OW record be disappointing?

[TLK]

I think people are ignoring the frontloaded aspect in some of their predictions. This isn't a first movie of the franchise so big Friday will lead to a smaller Saturday. I think 155 million is a good number at this point if it closely follows TDK trajectory.

[lab276]

What were you expecting?

The OW record, which doesn't look possible with a $67m Friday.

[mdot1982]

Sellouts for 7pm - 8pm shows on Saturday in Toronto already. Some 12:01pm afternoon shows sold out in Toronto and Vancouver.

[spizzer]

I think people are ignoring the frontloaded aspect in some of their predictions. This isn't a first movie of the franchise so big Friday will lead to a smaller Saturday. I think 155 million is a good number at this point if it closely follows TDK trajectory.

It won't follow TDK trajectory day-to-day. Saturday will increase from Friday without midnights. It's just the nature of a film opening in May vs July

[Poseidon]

Generally, estimates that early don't take those into account.

Then i don't get you point. How does it matter, if those numbers are included or not?

[Olive]

I am disappointed too, I was expecting it to smash the former record.

[spizzer]

The OW record, which doesn't look possible with a $67m Friday.

64-67M is not a definite figure. It's an estimated range given out by Disney at 4PM EST, with incomplete matinees everywhere other than the East Coast

[TLK]

It won't follow TDK trajectory day-to-day. Saturday will increase from Friday without midnights. It's just the nature of a film opening in May vs July

I wasn't talking about Day-to-Day trajectory. It isn't going to have a <10% Sunday drop either. If it follows the overall trajectory then 155 million is a good total.

[Neo]

I am disappointed too, I was expecting it to smash the former record.

Were where you? I mean from the Avengers over 150M OW thread?

[Incarnadine]

Heading out to see TA shortly, but first I decided to check the sell outs from the 2 closest theaters again. They both have it on 4 screens, 3 3D and 1 2D each, for a total of 16 showings.Metropolis has sold out 13 of the 16 shows, one of the remaining shows has reserved seating and it shows just 7 seats left out of 404.Scotiabank has sold out 14 of 16 shows, just the 10:30 pm show isn't sold out, and the 11:00 pm Ultra AVX showing left, and the 11:00 show has just 30 seats left out of 410.When I checked these theaters yesterday they had sold out just 4 showings combined. Weird that the sales are so last minute, for THG these same theaters had sold out virtually every showing for the entire weekend well in advance.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Sellouts have finally exploded here in Seattle now that people are off work. We're apparently a lazy bunch that don't believe in advance ticketing.

Have you ever run into Foxy Knoxy?

[rockNrollaDIM]

Sellouts for 7pm - 8pm shows on Saturday in Toronto already. Some 12:01pm afternoon shows sold out in Toronto and Vancouver.

Canadian posters seemm to be reporting massive business- moreso than any other place.

[iceroll]

With all this walk-up business, hopefully the spillover will mean good business for The Hunger Games. Maybe it will have a better than expected hold. Here's hoping