May 7 - 10, 2012 Weekday Numbers: AVENGERS 12.5 Thurs pg 61

[baumer]

That would be absolutely fantastic.

But why? RTH gave us the range already. 17.5 looks to be about where it will land.

[Lordmandeep]

Tuesday will be around 17-18Which in May is just crazy guys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited May 9, 2012 by Lordmandeep

[druv10]

Rth, you are a god send. :)

[fishstick]

Rth, you are a god send. :)

I think he`s Asgardian. Heimdal most likely but could be Odin himself.

[Jack Nevada]

Fishnets, your sig made me almost spit out my soda. :D

[Lordmandeep]

Based off a 17.5 million Tuesday, using a 20% Wednesday drop and 8-10% Thursday drop and a 135% increase on FridayThis will still end up around 100 million for the weekend.

[baumer]

Based off a 17.5 million Tuesday, using a 20% Wednesday drop and 8-10% Thursday drop and a 135% increase on FridayThis will still end up around 100 million for the weekend.

This weekend might be just as crazy here as last weekend.

[Ozymandias]

Call me a loon but I don't see anything so far that suggests TA won't have a similar 2nd weekend drop to Spider Man. I mean, if its Tuesday drop is 10%(this is what Spider Man's is) or under, that makes 37% drop for its 2nd weekend look possible.

[druv10]

Call me a loon but I don't see anything so far that suggests TA won't have a similar 2nd weekend drop to Spider Man. I mean, if its Tuesday drop is 10%(this is what Spider Man's is) or under, that makes 37% drop for its 2nd weekend look possible.

SM1 had 166.6% increase on Friday and 53% for Saturday and simlar numbers will lead to under 40% drop. Thats why I have 125M 2nd weekend.

[spizzer]

There's no way this hits 125M. That's not going to happen.

[vc2002]

If TA hits a 100m second wknd, I can see another Friday thread going up to 300 pages.

[Ozymandias]

There's no way this hits 125M. That's not going to happen.

If Wednesday and Thursday drops are the same as Spider Man's, i think its gonna happen. So far its Monday drop is the same as Spiderman's and its Tuesday's hold looks like its gonna be the same or better.

[druv10]

Based off a 17.5 million Tuesday, using a 20% Wednesday drop and 8-10% Thursday drop and a 135% increase on FridayThis will still end up around 100 million for the weekend.

Friday increasesIM 179.1%IM2 138.5%SM1 166.6%SM3 190.5%Thor 127.5%I am not sure why you are only coming up with 135% increase. Thor which had the smallest also jumped 66% on Saturday so I think 150% should be the minmum jump for TA on Friday.

[druv10]

There's no way this hits 125M. That's not going to happen.

By that logic 207.4M shouldn't have happened but it did. The question is why would only jump 125 to 135% for Friday when every other movie is above that barring Thor. Which had 66% jump on Saturday.

[FilmBuff]

There's no way this hits 125M. That's not going to happen.

This post reeks of desperation.

[spizzer]

Friday increases

IM 179.1%

IM2 138.5%

SM1 166.6%

SM3 190.5%

Thor 127.5%

I am not sure why you are only coming up with 135% increase. Thor which had the smallest also jumped 66% on Saturday so I think 150% should be the minmum jump for TA on Friday.

Midnight as a percentage of OD

IM - 15.0% (est.)

IM2 - 14.6%

SM1 - 17.8%

SM3 - 16.7%

Thor - 14.9%

TA - 23.1%

Midnight as a percentage of OW

IM1 - 5.35% (est.)

IM2 - 5.85%

SM1 - 6.1%

SM3 - 6.6%

Thor - 5.8%

TA - 9.0%

The Avengers has burned off a larger percentage of its demand in a shorter period of time. It's more reasonable that it ends up at the low end of those Friday increases than the high end.

Second Friday as a percentage of First Friday minus Midnights

IM1 - 49.6%

IM2 - 34.5%

SM1 - 61.4%

SM3 - 34.3%

Thor - 41.9%

What will be interesting is to see where it places here. How much audience can it retain in a week?

[spizzer]

By that logic 207.4M shouldn't have happened but it did. The question is why would only jump 125 to 135% for Friday when every other movie is above that barring Thor. Which had 66% jump on Saturday.

This post reeks of desperation.

There is no desperation, and it is not the same logic. Hell, I was one of the few that believed that 200M was possible, and I had broken down why weeks ago. I even tried pushing that this may sell >20M tickets over the weekend, and that the presales/awareness/buzz supported it. I was told that there was no chance, so I dropped it. Once Thursday came around, and BKB returned, I AGAIN said that 200M was indeed possible in a high-end scenario. You can go find it if you want.There's no desire on my part to put this film down. I make all my predictions based on mathematics, historical trends and logic, and try my absolute best to not allow myself to make any emotional predictions in haste. When I say 125M is not going to happen, I don't say it because I want this to fail or not succeed, it's because I really just don't see it happening. It's as simple as that.

[Fake]

Number should be up in 2 hours, right?

[spizzer]

Number should be up in 2 hours, right?

Hopefully. If it drops at the low end of Rth's range, that's an 18.3M Tuesday

[druv10]

Midnight as a percentage of OD

IM - 15.0% (est.)

IM2 - 14.6%

SM1 - 17.8%

SM3 - 16.7%

Thor - 14.9%

TA - 23.1%

Midnight as a percentage of OW

IM1 - 5.35% (est.)

IM2 - 5.85%

SM1 - 6.1%

SM3 - 6.6%

Thor - 5.8%

TA - 9.0%

The Avengers has burned off a larger percentage of its demand in a shorter period of time. It's more reasonable that it ends up at the low end of those Friday increases than the high end.

Second Friday as a percentage of First Friday minus Midnights

IM1 - 49.6%

IM2 - 34.5%

SM1 - 61.4%

SM3 - 34.3%

Thor - 41.9%

What will be interesting is to see where it places here. How much audience can it retain in a week?

Thor retention TA would do 26.1M.

IM retention TA would do 30.9M.

IM2 retention TA would do 21.4M.

SM1 retention TA would be 38.13M.

SM3 retention TA would do 21.2M.

You said no way. To me we don't know about retention of audience but SM3 and IM2 are bad comparison because luke warm to bad WOM. SM is really out there so lets go with IM and Thor.