Weekend estimates thread TA 103,052,274!!

[artist]

Jack's enthusiasm seemed cute initially (see my earlier post) but its gotten so rabid now that I put him on ignore. Just because people were not agreeing with his wildly optimistic projections, he resorted to label them as "Avenger haterz". I mean at that point, I realized that he probably is still in his teens .. Anyway, without his posts visible, thread looks clean to me except occasionally when people quote him and I still see him shooting himself in the foot.Anyway, why are we talking about so rabid poster? Where is rth and where is our Monday fix? Me needs some Avengers monday figures

[Chewy]

He posted this a page ago

Most likely between 7-8m, a 2nd monday outside of any form of holidays pretty good

[artist]

Thanks Chewy!I'll add it to my Avengers graphs tomorrow AM. Night!

[Harpospoke]

Exactly, one of the main things that we do as BO followers is compare current films to previous ones. If you're getting compared to TDK, you must be doing something right. No ones trying to undermine TA's success, because it is pretty much impossible at this point, just putting things in perspective.

"Putting things in perspective" sounds like "Well....It's not that impressive".

Every big money-maker is not very impressive after you "put it in perspective". TDK is suddenly the 28th in box office and Avatar is 14th when we do that. The reason we don't do that is because each big box office hit comes with its own set of rules and its own particular circumstances.

Avengers has a 3D "advantage"...but again...that's because the public volunteering to spend more money. They have the option to spend less and don't do it. The same can't be said about more money made through inflation alone. Didn't TDK have the advantage of getting free hype from E! network over Heath Ledger's death? That's an "advantage" too, right? How do you factor that into the equation? How much do we "take away" from Avatar because it functioned as a bit of a thrill ride instead of a movie? Just what "perspective" are we looking for here?

Well, TDK is the current comic book admissions king, so it should be brought up from that standpoint.

I thought....TDK "transcends the genre"? Doesn't that mean it's more of a crime drama than a comic book movie? You could replace Batman with Bruce Willis, Stallone, or Arnold and have the same plot. It's certainly nothing like The Avengers. They aren't the same kind of movie at all....and neither one is trying to go for the same things. I'm not sure I could come up with ways for them to be more different.

[stuart360]

There is nothing wrong with not being a box office expert, there is also nothing wrong with putting over the top predictions but ijacksparrow takes that to the deluded extreme then attacks you if you go against his view or don't believe that The Avengers is the best movie of all time and is going to gross 5 billion worldwide and will still be grossing huge weekends at Christmas!.

[ZattMurdock]

Not what I meant at all.

"Putting things in perspective" sounds like "Well....It's not that impressive".

Every big money-maker is not very impressive after you "put it in perspective". TDK is suddenly the 28th in box office and Avatar is 14th when we do that. The reason we don't do that is because each big box office hit comes with its own set of rules and its own particular circumstances.

Avengers has a 3D "advantage"...but again...that's because the public volunteering to spend more money. They have the option to spend less and don't do it. The same can't be said about more money made through inflation alone. Didn't TDK have the advantage of getting free hype from E! network over Heath Ledger's death? That's an "advantage" too, right? How do you factor that into the equation? How much do we "take away" from Avatar because it functioned as a bit of a thrill ride instead of a movie? Just what "perspective" are we looking for here?

I thought....TDK "transcends the genre"? Doesn't that mean it's more of a crime drama than a comic book movie? You could replace Batman with Bruce Willis, Stallone, or Arnold and have the same plot. It's certainly nothing like The Avengers. They aren't the same kind of movie at all....and neither one is trying to go for the same things. I'm not sure I could come up with ways for them to be more different.

Great post. I think some of these guys just like to see the World burn. While me, well, I still believe in heroes.

[baumer]

So Jacksparrow, you think The Avengers will make more money on Memorial Day weekend than it did this weekend? Cause that's the only way it's going to beat MIB3 that weekend.

[ZattMurdock]

The prediction for MIB 3 is something like $80m-$100m OW, am I right? Realistically speaking, TA will come as 2nd to MIB, but I don't think MIB will be making as much as people think and having TA as first to MIB OW was more wishful thinking than anything else. I do think it's realistically to affirm that a second week drop could place MIB 3 behind TA though. Edited May 15, 2012 by iJackSparrow

[druv10]

So Jacksparrow, you think The Avengers will make more money on Memorial Day weekend than it did this weekend? Cause that's the only way it's going to beat MIB3 that weekend.

You are overestimating MIB3. MIB3 will be number 1 for that weekend but no where near 100M+.

[lab276]

"Putting things in perspective" sounds like "Well....It's not that impressive".

Every big money-maker is not very impressive after you "put it in perspective". TDK is suddenly the 28th in box office and Avatar is 14th when we do that. The reason we don't do that is because each big box office hit comes with its own set of rules and its own particular circumstances.

Avengers has a 3D "advantage"...but again...that's because the public volunteering to spend more money. They have the option to spend less and don't do it. The same can't be said about more money made through inflation alone. Didn't TDK have the advantage of getting free hype from E! network over Heath Ledger's death? That's an "advantage" too, right? How do you factor that into the equation? How much do we "take away" from Avatar because it functioned as a bit of a thrill ride instead of a movie? Just what "perspective" are we looking for here?

The kind of "perspective" we're looking for is quite simple; "how many tickets did such and such movie sell?". Nothing more.

I thought....TDK "transcends the genre"? Doesn't that mean it's more of a crime drama than a comic book movie? You could replace Batman with Bruce Willis, Stallone, or Arnold and have the same plot. It's certainly nothing like The Avengers. They aren't the same kind of movie at all....and neither one is trying to go for the same things. I'm not sure I could come up with ways for them to be more different.

It's a different kind of movie to TA, but it's still a comic book movie.

[BK007]

There is nothing wrong with not being a box office expert, there is also nothing wrong with putting over the top predictions but ijacksparrow takes that to the deluded extreme then attacks you if you go against his view or don't believe that The Avengers is the best movie of all time and is going to gross 5 billion worldwide and will still be grossing huge weekends at Christmas!.

Ignored for over a week already. Has to be the best improvement over BOM. Remember the days had to scroll past all kinds of trolls. Now, don't even have to waste time on them.

[Some guy]

One thing I find astonishing is that The Avengers has grossed $310 Million over the course of only 6 days! Non-consecutive, mind you, but is there any other movie that has come remotely close to grossing such a huge amount over the course of it's six richest days?

[Adm56]

I'm a newb too and don't make projections. But is it fair to say that Jacksparrow has been $%#@ on enough at this point?Everyone here seemed pretty polite (for the most part) before I saw this stretch of posts. Maybe a quick newbie primer (or directing him to one) might be more useful that 4-5 people in a row saying he's annoying and they ignore him.It's already amusing that the old timers scream 'off topic!' right up until they start their OWN off topic conversation. :)Just sayin'

[stuart360]

I'm a newb too and don't make projections. But is it fair to say that Jacksparrow has been $%#@ on enough at this point?

Everyone here seemed pretty polite (for the most part) before I saw this stretch of posts. Maybe a quick newbie primer (or directing him to one) might be more useful that 4-5 people in a row saying he's annoying and they ignore him.

It's already amusing that the old timers scream 'off topic!' right up until they start their OWN off topic conversation.

Just sayin'

[ZattMurdock]

Wait a second, nobody did me. Ever.

[Caladbolg]

No more daily threads?

[Jack Nevada]

No more daily threads?

Nope. Sucks, doesnt it? I miss the rambling daily threads..

[doublejack]

Plugging in the percentage drops of other SH films for TA vs TA actual percentage drops (yellow x line), it's clear TA is tracking closest to IM, Thor and IM2. It remains to be seen if past day 20 it will follow IM or Thor more.

I used an optimistic 8M for Monday. Click on graph for clearer image.

TDK really shouldn't be on this chart, as it was a July release. All of the others are tightly grouped through 10 days, and no surprise it is because they all released during the same window of time, just in different summers. It's at this point we'll see what kind of legs TA has, as this is when the lines begin to noticeably diverge.

[hasanahmad]

FYI. Monday's number have been postedhttp://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/3495-monday-box-office-5152012-avengers-82-ds-23/

[doublejack]

it'll stay number one until Memorial Weekend, then:1) MIB2) AvengersJune 1st:1) Snow White2) MIB3) TAJune 8th1) Madagascar2) Prometheus3) Snow White4) MIB5) TA

I think there's a very good chance that TA beats out Snow White and/or MIB3 the weekend of June 8th. My guess is it will finish better than 5th that weekend.