JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

Toy Story 3, Monsters University, Alice in Wonderland and others taught us that post-holiday numbers can be very disappointed. We should also keep in mind what happened in South Korea: some thought that 11M admissions were locked, and it 'only' finished with 10.3M. Frozen's chances of going above 100M are definitively above 50%, but it's still far from being locked.

from corpse

 

"This is the 9th biggest second weekend since at least 1998 (no weekend data prior to this date), and the only film since then to ever open above ¥500 million to see a second weekend increases without Holiday support."

 

Argument for legs:

 

That's got to be a sign(above) that WOM of mouth is huge and the legs should hold up better after spring break

 

Since it skews older it likely to be even less front loaded then the low norm of Japan,

 

SK population less than 1/2, they ran out of people to go;). A lot more people out there can continue to fill theaters after SB

 

While BO is larger(tix50% higher), admissions are lower in Japan than SK. It is shown on less than half of the screens 

 

SK admissions 10.3m , That's $115m in Japan. Could Japan do 10,20 30 or 50% more?

 

I think we have a perfect storm for a phenom 

[Fullbuster]

mfantin,you're so active and passionnate on this thread

Edited March 25, 2014 by Tails Miles Prower

[mfantin65]

mfantin,you're so active and passionnate on this thread

phenoms are rare, im all over it

[catlover]

from corpse

 

"This is the 9th biggest second weekend since at least 1998 (no weekend data prior to this date), and the only film since then to ever open above ¥500 million to see a second weekend increases without Holiday support."

 

Argument for legs:

 

That's got to be a sign(above) that WOM of mouth is huge and the legs should hold up better after spring break

 

Since it skews older it likely to be even less front loaded then the low norm of Japan,

 

SK population less than 1/2, they ran out of people to go;). A lot more people out there can continue to fill theaters after SB

 

While BO is larger(tix50% higher), admissions are lower in Japan than SK. It is shown on less than half of the screens 

 

SK admissions 10.3m , That's $115m in Japan. Could Japan do 10,20 30 or 50% more?

 

I think we have a perfect storm for a phenom 

 

Well, people in SK go to the movies more often than Japanese, especially now. I think the last movie with 10m+ admissions in Japan was Avatar in 2009. Meanwhile, since 2009, there are 7 movies with 10m+ admissions in SK. Their movie going habit and frequency are different so I don't think you can compare them using population.

 

But I agree, the WOM for Frozen is just crazy and it will help its legs. Increasing in its 2nd weekend without any holiday support was indeed a sign that this is something else. Friday was a holiday but I don't think it affected Sat & Sun. In fact, it should have deflated its weekend number a little bit, since a lot of people went to see the movies on Friday instead of Sat or Sun, but it still increased from previous weekend. And yeah, it was a perfect storm. The hype, the release date, the Japanese voice casts, couldn't been better than this.

 

And honestly I want it to beat AIW, at least in yen, because Frozen deserves more than that movie (I wanted TS3 to beat it too, but it couldn't). Seriously, how the hell did it manage to get a 9.5x multiplier and make 11.8b yen?

Edited March 25, 2014 by catlover

[mfantin65]

Phenom Update. If it holds well it looks like this. My original prediction was 110m. Im hoping and thinking it has a chance to beat TS3

Lets see how it tracks TS3 which has a 15% currency advantage.  Its got MU beat no need to compare.

 

TS3                                              Frozen

Weekend         Total

$11,156,768   $11,156,768.     $7,531,000    $9,731,000

$8,312,960.    $27,090,842.     $8,500,000    $29,700,000

$6,121,284.    $44,328,765 $9,500,000   $53,000,000 est

$7,134,502.    $62,557,777   $8,000,000 $73,000,000 Proj- end SB

$4,864,813.    $76,990,462 $6,000,000   $85,000,000 Got to hold well post SB

$6,245,451.    $95,797,512   $5,000,000   $95,000,000

$3,185,494     $107,751,566 $4,000,000   $103,000,000 

$2,908,764     $115,404,636   $5,000,000   $115,000,000 Golden week

$1,600,000  $122,700,000 $3,000,000   $121,000,000

$126,660,533 $130,000,000+ ???

[chuck0]

Phenom Update. If it holds well it looks like this. My original prediction was 110m. Im hoping and thinking it has a chance to beat TS3

Lets see how it tracks TS3 which has a 15% currency advantage.  Its got MU beat no need to compare.

 

TS3                                              Frozen

Weekend         Total

$11,156,768   $11,156,768.     $7,531,000    $9,731,000

$8,312,960.    $27,090,842.     $8,500,000    $29,700,000

$6,121,284.    $44,328,765 $9,500,000   $53,000,000 est

$7,134,502.    $62,557,777   $8,000,000 $73,000,000 Proj- end SB

$4,864,813.    $76,990,462 $6,000,000   $85,000,000 Got to hold well post SB

$6,245,451.    $95,797,512   $5,000,000   $95,000,000

$3,185,494     $107,751,566 $4,000,000   $103,000,000 

$2,908,764     $115,404,636   $5,000,000   $115,000,000 Golden week

$1,600,000  $122,700,000 $3,000,000   $121,000,000

$126,660,533 $130,000,000+ ???

 

beating TS3 in admissions would be pretty cool already but doing that in actual dollars (exchange rate advantage AND i guess higher 3D share? ) really would be insanely impressive

[Ray]

Based on those 10-day multipliers a few posts back, and the fact that Frozen has fantastic WOM, I'm surprised at how plausible $130m actually is. Time will tell, though. It's got the momentum, but it's a lofty goal.

Edited March 25, 2014 by Ray

[mfantin65]

beating TS3 in admissions would be pretty cool already but doing that in actual dollars (exchange rate advantage AND i guess higher 3D share? ) really would be insanely impressive

100 yen per ticket increase kicks in april 1st. will give a 10% boost for the rest of the run

[lab276]

100 yen per ticket increase kicks in april 1st. will give a 10% boost for the rest of the run

Unless fewer people see it giving no overall benefit.

[Ray]

Based on the data at hand, do we have an estimate as to when it will actually pass TS3 worldwide as the #1 all-time animation? Just so I know when to post on my Facebook.

[mfantin65]

Based on the data at hand, do we have an estimate as to when it will actually pass TS3 worldwide as the #1 all-time animation? Just so I know when to post on my Facebook.

possibly friday. Its on pace to do 13m in japan this week, it'll be close. Definitely Sat. Wont be reported until sunday at noon though.

[Incarnadine]

Based on the data at hand, do we have an estimate as to when it will actually pass TS3 worldwide as the #1 all-time animation? Just so I know when to post on my Facebook.

 

Judging by Japan's weekdays so far this week I'd say Friday, Saturday at the latest.

 

TS3- $1,063,171,911

Frozen- $1,049,815,938

 

So, Frozen needs about $13.356m, weekdays for Japan this week are looking like 13-14m with around 400k domestic (counting Friday) and maybe 200-300k from remaining holdovers

[LABAS]

Japan update by 14 30Toho today 46478last wed 21854last sunday 39384...

[catlover]

Japan update by 14 30Tohotoday 46478last wed21854last sunday 39384...

 

LOL. Bigger admissions than last Sunday, which was already bigger than opening Sunday. I know it's discount day & spring break but still.

[LABAS]

lets see if it can challenge 80000 toho admissions

[Olive]

Japan update by 14:30

 

                  Toho      109      kinezo

  today       46478   11132    7161

 

 last wed    21854    5042     3483

 

By 2:30PM last wednesday, TOHO admissions accounted for 50.4% of the whole day.

[Rsyu]

Those are really some WTF numbers...

[Ray]

Discount day, huh? Obviously it's doing some great numbers because of discounts and/or spring break, and the movie's a hit. Percentage-wise, is that kind of increase for a discount day over spring break normal? Or statistically better than normal, and by how much?

[Omni]

Normal or abnormal, it's still a Wednesday close to 4 millions

[catlover]

Normal or abnormal, it's still a Wednesday close to 4 millions

 

This. Its 2nd Wednesday might be its biggest day so far admission-wise (or at least close to it). Normal or not, that's impressive. It's even more impressive if you think that even though it's a discount day and spring break, it's not a holiday, people still go to work.

Edited March 26, 2014 by catlover