JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

 Frozen Box office estimates for tomorrow ( Friday )? Do you think that can pass $1 million

Friday should be close to 1m

[FrozenFan626]

Alright looks like we're upping the ante here! $275m 

[Incarnadine]

Look that... why disney is not reporting grosses for Frozen?

 

 

 

Disney stops reporting daily grosses at some point, but should still update for weekends. They reported for Frozen much longer than usual, I think they stopped reporting daily numbers for The Muppets 2 after just 35 days.

[BadAtGender]

Disney stops reporting daily grosses at some point, but should still update for weekends. They reported for Frozen much longer than usual, I think they stopped reporting daily numbers for The Muppets 2 after just 35 days.

 

The last day of daily reports was last Thursday, after 161 days. That's actually a super long time for Disney to do daily reports. They usually stop after about 3 months.

[Quigley]

Why is Wednesday a big weekday compared to other weekdays in Japan?

[BadAtGender]

Why is Wednesday a big weekday compared to other weekdays in Japan?

 

It's Ladies Day. Women get a discount on tickets.

[Rsyu]

So frozen grossed around $36M during golden week (april 29-may 6)? Did anyone predict that high?

[mfantin65]

So frozen grossed around $36M during golden week (april 29-may 6)Did anyone predict that high?

we didnt do a prediction for those specific days, but I was looking for 166m on sunday two weeks ago. Hitting that donkey right on the head!

[tong kosong]

Okay people. Time for another challenge. I projected 165m for the end of GW two weeks ago and there were a lot of non believers judging by so many 200m and below predictions. Mid 160s is going to happen by sunday. Now the question is what kind of hold this weekend and legs are to follow. Its very simple, yet not, to come up with a final number. Determine what the weekend will be, apply a multiplier and add to 165-168m.6m x 10?7m x 15?8m x 20?This is not a revision. The first round stays intact. Someone in the top 5 will win that one. Well, probably me or boxx if it fades.Take the week to contemplate it, due by 1200 Tokyo saturday, 11pm ny friday. This could be months before its decided, if you're all not too low. Aim high and stay in the game until autumn.mfantin............. 325,000,000  KingSlayer............275,000,000

SamComedian.......272,000,000Boxx93.................265,000,000

Henry II................262,000,000

Quigley.................255,000,000

ZackZack..............250,000,000

Incardine..............250,000,000

Chucky.................240,000,000 sticking with first prediction.Omni....................235,000,000

Hans13.................228,000,000

Corpse..................200,000,000 will never break 244m

RaySubers.............I don't know, a lot  Will it crash like Its HMC  or soar like SA  .

 

We could do a third challenge at the start of summer. Triple crown!

 

245m

[Murgatroyd]

And now, from the 20/20 hindsight department, here are all of Corpse's predictions about Frozen's final total.

 

3/15

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The 3D share will be lower than Monsters University, so I think beating its opening weekend of 847 million ($8.2 million) will be tough, but regardless, an opening weekend of ¥800 million ($8 million) is actually possible. And legs during the Spring don't compare to Summer/Winter, but they can still approach a multiplier of 10 (Wreck-It Ralph had a x8.8 last March).

 

So I'd say, if the opening is around ¥800 million ($8 million), it'll be targeting a ¥7-8 billion ($70/80 million) total. Excluding Pixar, that would be by far the highest-grossing Disney animation release beating Dinosaur's long-standing record of ¥4.9 billion.

 

 

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An opening of ~$8 million should result in:

 

$60/65 million: the floor or minimum goal (a lot will have to go wrong here; the plagiarism claims will have to go wide-scale, and I doubt they will).

$70/75 million: the expected target (typical legs for a well-received film before holidays).

$80/85 million: the ceiling or greatly exceeding expectations (it's very, very rare to see multipliers reach or exceed 10 outside of July/Dec.)

 

 

 

3/16

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Its target total is ¥7 billion ($70 million) and 5 million admissions based on the estimated opening.

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The Spring box-office, while lucrative, isn't as strong as the Summer or Winter, but it is capable of great legs and I wouldn't be surprised if Frozen comes close to a multiplier of 10. Wreck-It Ralph had a 8.8 multiplier last March as a recent example. So, Frozen should be on track for ¥7 billion ($70 million), or possibly as much as ¥8 billion ($80 million). Which will crush Dinosaur's ¥4.9 billion as the highest-grossing Walt Disney Animation release.

 

3/23

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Frozen.... pretty unreal. It's going to be tracking ahead of Toy Story 3 and Monsters University for awhile, and depending on the lead it gains before those two films received their Summer/Obon Festival boosts, it could end up challenging them. 

 

¥8 billion ($80 million) looks more than likely now; ¥9 billion ($90 million) is doable; and ¥10 billion+ ($100 million+) will be difficult, but there is a chance.

 

3/24

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Eventually it should lose its momentum once Spring Break is over, allowing the films it's tracking ahead of currently to catch up since their holidays boosts came later in their runs. But if it keeps up this pace... ¥10 billion ($100 million), while already a possibility, becomes more likely. 

 

3/25

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It won't be able to keep these numbers up after the first week of April, and the first couple weeks in April will decide where it's really heading.

 

3/30

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It will begin to slow down starting this upcoming weekend, post-Spring Break, but it will already have accumulated a massive sum that ¥10 billion (~$100 million) is more than likely in reach.

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It only took Frozen 16/17 days to become Walt Disney's highest-grossing animated film of all-time, but Dinosaur held that record for nearly 14 years!

 

Frozen will end up more than doubling Dinosaur's total.

 

3/31

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Spring Break is still going on, so it's probably going to see another set of weekdays over ¥1 billion ($10 million+), but from there it really should start to slow down. But it'll be around ¥7 billion ($70 million) after four weeks in release anyway, so it'll have to almost collapse to miss ¥10 billion ($100 million), and will probably become the highest-grossing imported animated film of all-time (needs to beat Finding Nemo's ¥11 billion)... Crazy.

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Frozen will have little trouble entering the Top 10 and will end up challenging Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3 at its current pace. It also has a small chance at The Wind Rises and breaking up Miyazaki's Top 5 if it doesn't fall too hard post-Spring Break, but ¥12 billion+ will be quite difficult.

 

4/4

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Frozen will have little trouble entering the Top 10 and will end up challenging Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3 at its current pace. It also has a small chance at The Wind Rises and breaking up Miyazaki's Top 5 if it doesn't fall too hard post-Spring Break, but ¥12 billion+ will be quite difficult.

 

4/5

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It may honestly beat Avatar (admissions is more than 50% likely now I believe), and become Hollywood's biggest film since Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 12 years ago.

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In fact, I think Frozen could end up the top-grossing film for the current decade (2010-2019). Literally the only films that it'll be trailing behind after four weeks will be Spirited Away, Howl's Moving Castle, the first two Harry Potter films, and maybe Ponyo (which it has been tracking closely with). And they're all in the Top 10 films of all-time.

 

4/12

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If it can survive all the upcoming competition (screen/showtimes are the biggest issue), May is weak enough again this year that it could develop strong late legs and perhaps find a way to reach ¥15 billion+ ($150 million).

 

4/14

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Its 31-day cume is now ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million) with 7.56 million admissions. It climbed 22 spots on the all-time grossing films chart, and now ranks 37th after just 5 weeks. ¥12 billion ($120 million) is locked up, making it the highest-grossing imported animated film ever ahead of Finding Nemo's ¥11.0 billion, and ¥13 billion ($130 million) is looking likely. We'll see where it goes from there.

 

 

4/20

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It's not doing over $244 million. It's tracking over 20% behind Spirited Away after 6 weeks despite its weekend business being so strong each week. Spirited Away's weekends are still bigger, and its weekdays are much, much bigger. It'll also still be tracking behind Howl's Moving Castle and Ponyo after 6 weeks, and the former hasn't had any holiday support yet.

 

It doesn't have the weekday support, which is more important than weekends. It'll require a gross of at least ¥25 billion, more than double what its 8 week total will probably be.

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Frozen is having a monstrous run and could potentially become the biggest film this decade. It's likely going to exceed ¥15 billion ($150 million), could reach ¥16/17 billion ($160/170 million), and that'll be very difficult for anything currently on the horizon to beat.

 

4/21

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Frozen becomes the 28th film to reach the ¥10 billion milestone at the box-office, as well as the seventh-fastest to reach the mark. At this pace, it'll crack the Top 10 All-Time in early May and will likely exceed a gross of ¥15 billion ($150 million) in the process. 

 

4/25

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Frozen has locked up a 7th-week on top as it's pretty far ahead of everything else so far this morning and when looking at its afternoon and evening ticket sales. Disney and whoever else that was responsible for releasing the sing-a-long and 3D dubbed version this weekend, right before Golden Week begins, too, was genius. If it manages a 6th-consecutive week grossing over 800 million ($8 million)... we'll be discussing the potential for ¥20 billion ($200 million), making it only the fifth film to ever reach that milestone (Spirited Away > Titanic > Howl's Moving Castle > Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone).

 

4/26

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Also, calling Frozen by "Frozatar" is a big understatement. It's been tracking 20-25% ahead of Avatar for the past month and will out-gross it in a couple weeks, plus it'll have sold more tickets in a just matter of days (Tuesday/Wednesday most likely). It looks like it's going to become the second or third biggest imported release ever, behind just Titanic and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, and it might even challenge the latter. Beating both of them in admissions actually looks possible, too. I've been hesitant on calling ¥20 billion (~$200 million) but... it's become more likely than not.

 

4/30

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Frozen could potentially gross more than Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3 combined, which were the Top 2 highest-grossing imported animated films. 

 

5/3

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Very huge for Frozen. Very, very, very huge. This is its biggest mid-day Saturday admission figure to date, and this is definitely going to be its biggest Saturday, and probably weekend as well. It's going to blow the biggest 8th weekend record out of the water by a huge margin. Nothing has had a performance even close to this in over a decade, and it's becoming a serious contender for $200 million+.

 

5/4

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Bye-bye to The Last Samurai. It was in the Top 10 for eleven years, but Frozen had no trouble knocking it out this past weekend. And Frozen is about a ¥1 billion away now from Ponyo and Avatar, which it'll more than likely surpass before next weekend. And beating Harry Potter 2 and Bayside Shakedown 2 is practically a lock now as well.

 

5/5

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Frozen is probably going to pass Titanic. [in USD]

 

 

It's just like reading back through the predictions for the domestic run. One week's optimistic projection is the next week's likelihood, and is passed in less than a month. Of course, like the domestic run, predictions will eventually catch up with reality.

Edited May 9, 2014 by Murgatroyd

[Incarnadine]

That was a fun recap to read. I loved the change in predictions from week to week, and in some cases within a day.

I'm eagerly waiting the

It's not doing over $244 million.

to be changed to "it's possible" then to "it looks likely" and then finally "I can't believe it did it!".

[lab276]

Top Grossing Films - 2014 Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)¥15.94 billion ($156.3 million) / 12.65 million [54] - Frozen (Disney)¥10 billion ↨¥8.69 billion ($84.3 million) / 7.09 million [137] - The Eternal Zero (Toho)¥5 billion ↨¥4.18 billion ($40.4 million) / 3.52 million [E] - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (Toho)¥3.48 billion ($34.3 million) / 3.20 million [60] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho)¥3.15 billion ($30.7 million) / 2.59 million [18] - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho)¥3.14 billion ($30.3 million) / 2.02 million [E] - Gravity (Warner Bros.)¥3 billion ↨¥2.57 billion ($25.2 million) / 1.99 million [11] - Thermae Romae II (Toho)¥2.38 billion ($23.2 million) / 1.99 million [E] - The Tale of Princess Kaguya (Toho)¥2.15 billion ($20.8 million) / 1.70 million [E] - The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho)¥2 billion ↨¥1.97 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.34 million [12] - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony)¥1.76 billion ($17.0 million) / 1.45 million [E] - The Liar and His Lover (Toho)¥1.74 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.35 million [E] - Trick: The Last Stage (Toho)¥1.45 billion ($14.3 million) / 1.22 million [E] - I Want to Hold You (Toho)¥1.40 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.08 million [E] - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.)¥1.32 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.15 million [18] - Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toho)¥1.31 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.06 million [11] - Partners the Movie 3 (Toei)¥1.14 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Little House (Shochiku)¥1.13 billion ($10.9 million) / 0.94 million [E] - Planes (Disney)¥1.04 billion ($10.2 million) / 0.79 million [25] - Crows: Explode (Toho)¥1.02 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.85 million [E] - Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Gaim & Wizard (Toei)¥1.00 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.78 million [E] - The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox)¥1 billion ↑*Figures as of May 06th*[E] = End of Tracking

[Ray]

lol, Dinosaur.

[AJG]

Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another DimensionJEEEEEEEZUS Dat title is AMAZING. I don't know what this movie is, all I know is that I must see it immediately.

[Omni]

244M is Spirited Away's total in USD? I thought it was 230M or so. Damn...

[Robertron]

Hopefully I'll be able to contribute to Frozens Japanese run. It's an aim of mine to see a movie in every country I go to.

[edroger3]

Weekend presales: at the moment low (only 8/65 shows over 50%+ in my theaters panel). I hope it will do better in next hours.

[SamComedian]

Weekend presales: at the moment low (only 8/65 shows over 50%+ in my theaters panel). I hope it will do better in next hours.

 

little by little

[mfantin65]

244M is Spirited Away's total in USD? I thought it was 230M or so. Damn...

BOM states 230m but corpse g as been saying 244 w extended run.

Weekend presales: at the moment low (only 8/65 shows over 50%+ in my theaters panel). I hope it will do better in next hours.

Brace yourself omni for 6m, just in case. Thatll be fine. How it holds the following weekend is more important. Edited May 9, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

Toho 1430. 4214. Above 6,7,8th week.

Edited May 9, 2014 by mfantin65