JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Rsyu]

Spirited away vs frozen after 10 weeks

 

Spirited Away:

wk1: ¥1.001 billion ($8.9 million)wk2: ¥975 million ($8.7 million), -02%, ¥4.240 billion ($34.6 million)wk3: ¥890 million ($7.9 million), -09%, ¥7.220 billion ($59.0 million)wk4: ¥940 million ($8.4 million), +06%, ¥10.75 billion ($87.8 million)wk5: ¥890 million ($7.9 million), -06%, ¥13.26 billion ($109.3 million)wk6: ¥900 million ($8.0 million), +02%, ¥14.90 billion ($123.3 million)wk7: ¥785 million ($6.2 million), -13%, ¥17.13 billion ($148.5 million)wk8: ¥695 million ($6.3 million), -11%, ¥18.65 billion ($160.8 million)wk9: ¥650 million ($5.8 million), -07%, ¥19.98 billion ($171.7 million)wk10: ¥510 million ($4.6 million), -21%, ¥22.40 billion ($183.7 million)

 

Frozen:

wk1: ¥763 million ($7.5 million)wk2: ¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)wk3: ¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)wk4: ¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)wk5: ¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)wk6: ¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)wk7: ¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)wk8: ¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)wk9: ¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)wk10: ¥788 million ($7.7 million), +07%, ¥18.50 billion ($181.6 million) *Estimate*

[Quigley]

I find Frozen's run in Japan very agonising. It is the one and only rare market where films are not at all front-loaded. Films that are very front-loaded in the US (e.g. 2x multiplier) can get a 4x multiplier in Japan and so on. However, this makes everything move very slowly. Yes, Frozen is capable of having decreases smaller than 10% but that just means our expectations rise higher and higher and we have to wait more and more for them to come true. And also, ONE WEEKEND with a very high drop (e.g. -30%) from now on could be enough to destroy all our hopes. In the US, I always think: worst-case scenario is -50% (the times the decrease is greater than 50% are very few). So I adjust my expectations according to that. But for animated films, and especially for Frozen, the mulitpliers have been so high that I've got bored of waiting for milestones to be crossed (and for Deathly Hallows - Part 2 we might have to wait until October). No other film since 2010 (when I started observing the box office) has had such a lengthy and agonising run. It's almost been six months since Frozen was first released and its run has honestly started being painful. The biggest problem is that I can't let it go.

Edited May 18, 2014 by Quigley

[Incarnadine]

 No other film since 2010 (when I started observing the box office) has had such a lengthy and agonising run. It's almost been six months since Frozen was first released and its run has honestly started being painful. The biggest problem is that I can't let it go.

The only thing I find agonizing about Frozen's run now is that it's not playing here anymore!

 

I'd go again in a second if it was playing anywhere around here.

[chuck0]

I find Frozen's run in Japan very agonising. It is the one and only rare market where films are not at all front-loaded. Films that are very front-loaded in the US (e.g. 2x multiplier) can get a 4x multiplier in Japan and so on. However, this makes everything move very slowly. Yes, Frozen is capable of having decreases smaller than 10% but that just means our expectations rise higher and higher and we have to wait more and more for them to come true. And also, ONE WEEKEND with a very high drop (e.g. -30%) from now on could be enough to destroy all our hopes. In the US, I always think: worst-case scenario is -50% (the times the decrease is greater than 50% are very few). So I adjust my expectations according to that. But for animated films, and especially for Frozen, the mulitpliers have been so high that I've got bored of waiting for milestones to be crossed (and for Deathly Hallows - Part 2 we might have to wait until October). No other film since 2010 (when I started observing the box office) has had such a lengthy and agonising run. It's almost been six months since Frozen was first released and its run has honestly started being painful. The biggest problem is that I can't let it go.

 

 

Interest in this will fade over the coming weeks/months, but it is imo a pretty nice thing to see this long slow burn... its going to be a little bit like good background music

[Rsyu]

Best Multipliers (Wide-Releases) [2001-]

01. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)

02. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)

03. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)

04. 24.24 - Frozen (Mar., 2014) -estimate

05. 23.21 - Departures (Dec., 2008) 

06. 19.96 - Les Miserabes (Dec., 2012) 

07. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)

08. 16.03 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013)

09. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)

10. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)

11. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)

12. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)

13. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)

14. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)

15. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)

16. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)

17. 13.64 - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (May, 2004)

18. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)

19. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)

20. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013) 

21. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013) 

22. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)

23. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)

24. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)

25. 11.56 - The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (July, 2012)

[mfantin65]

Anyway another day up. If up-trend continues until sunday, we really .... are going out of reality.

and continued up they did. Nice call. The weekday numbers are small and appear boring but they were portending the weekend bump. It'll be fun to track this week and see how far out of reality we go. We have admission number for four chains now week over week. We can see the changes more clearly and find the trajectory. Edited May 18, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[rhfqkddl45]

Spirited away vs frozen after 10 weeks

 

Spirited Away:

wk1: ¥1.001 billion ($8.9 million)

wk2: ¥975 million ($8.7 million), -02%, ¥4.240 billion ($34.6 million)

wk3: ¥890 million ($7.9 million), -09%, ¥7.220 billion ($59.0 million)

wk4: ¥940 million ($8.4 million), +06%, ¥10.75 billion ($87.8 million)

wk5: ¥890 million ($7.9 million), -06%, ¥13.26 billion ($109.3 million)

wk6: ¥900 million ($8.0 million), +02%, ¥14.90 billion ($123.3 million)

wk7: ¥785 million ($6.2 million), -13%, ¥17.13 billion ($148.5 million)

wk8: ¥695 million ($6.3 million), -11%, ¥18.65 billion ($160.8 million)

wk9: ¥650 million ($5.8 million), -07%, ¥19.98 billion ($171.7 million)

wk10: ¥510 million ($4.6 million), -21%, ¥22.40 billion ($183.7 million)

 

Frozen:

wk1: ¥763 million ($7.5 million)

wk2: ¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)

wk3: ¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)

wk4: ¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)

wk5: ¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)

wk6: ¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)

wk7: ¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)

wk8: ¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)

wk9: ¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)

wk10: ¥788 million ($7.7 million), +07%, ¥18.50 billion ($181.6 million) *Estimate*

 

*Weekends [sat-Sun] Total

 

Frozen............8.451b yen

Spirited away..8.236b yen

 

 

*Weekdays [Mon-Fri] Total

 

Frozen............10.049b yen

Spirited away..14.164b yen

Edited May 18, 2014 by Hans13

[mfantin65]

I find Frozen's run in Japan very agonising. It is the one and only rare market where films are not at all front-loaded. Films that are very front-loaded in the US (e.g. 2x multiplier) can get a 4x multiplier in Japan and so on. However, this makes everything move very slowly. Yes, Frozen is capable of having decreases smaller than 10% but that just means our expectations rise higher and higher and we have to wait more and more for them to come true. And also, ONE WEEKEND with a very high drop (e.g. -30%) from now on could be enough to destroy all our hopes. In the US, I always think: worst-case scenario is -50% (the times the decrease is greater than 50% are very few). So I adjust my expectations according to that. But for animated films, and especially for Frozen, the mulitpliers have been so high that I've got bored of waiting for milestones to be crossed (and for Deathly Hallows - Part 2 we might have to wait until October). No other film since 2010 (when I started observing the box office) has had such a lengthy and agonising run. It's almost been six months since Frozen was first released and its run has honestly started being painful. The biggest problem is that I can't let it go.

Thats what trading is like. Always on the edge of a disaster, which happens all the time, but that makes it sweeter when you nail it. We live for that. Fear and adrenaline. Just have to know how to deal with the pain. Sounds like you're a bit like omni in that it hits you viscerally. Me too a little for trading. I dont eat until 5pm on trading days. BO not so much, no money involved. Its just practice for the markets.

[Ajipon]

It has to start dropping from opening weekend sometime right?

"Sometime" is the keyword here.

[The Panda]

I'm still shocked that Frozen is actually going to be the highest grossing 2013 movie, to bad it'll hit it a little less than half way into 2014 when nobody cares about what won 2013.

[Rsyu]

I'm still shocked that Frozen is actually going to be the highest grossing 2013 movie, to bad it'll hit it a little less than half way into 2014 when nobody cares about what won 2013.

 

 

Maybe not but people will care that it passed IM3 to rank 5th highest WW gross which is where we should focus. Yearly rankings, as you say, loses much of their meaning once that year passes. 

[rhfqkddl45]

                FROZEN - Toho Admissions Graph (Week-5,6,7 and 10)

Edited May 19, 2014 by Hans13

[Murgatroyd]

Curious after this number. still "not happening" or is an upgrade coming from you?

 

No upgrade yet.  If it keeps having ridiculous holds for more than two more weeks, I may have to revise that opinion.

[BadAtGender]

The only thing I find agonizing about Frozen's run now is that it's not playing here anymore!

I'd go again in a second if it was playing anywhere around here.

You're in Vancouver or so? I think it's still playing at a theater or two down here around Seattle.

[Incarnadine]

You're in Vancouver or so? I think it's still playing at a theater or two down here around Seattle.

By "around here" I think my limit is an hour traveling time each way. I really, really like the movie and miss seeing it in the theater, but I'm not totally obsessed with it to the point where I'd plan an entire day around going to see it.

[vc2002]

Spirited away vs frozen after 10 weeks

 

Spirited Away:

wk1: ¥1.001 billion ($8.9 million)wk2: ¥975 million ($8.7 million), -02%, ¥4.240 billion ($34.6 million)wk3: ¥890 million ($7.9 million), -09%, ¥7.220 billion ($59.0 million)wk4: ¥940 million ($8.4 million), +06%, ¥10.75 billion ($87.8 million)wk5: ¥890 million ($7.9 million), -06%, ¥13.26 billion ($109.3 million)wk6: ¥900 million ($8.0 million), +02%, ¥14.90 billion ($123.3 million)wk7: ¥785 million ($6.2 million), -13%, ¥17.13 billion ($148.5 million)wk8: ¥695 million ($6.3 million), -11%, ¥18.65 billion ($160.8 million)wk9: ¥650 million ($5.8 million), -07%, ¥19.98 billion ($171.7 million)wk10: ¥510 million ($4.6 million), -21%, ¥22.40 billion ($183.7 million)

 

Frozen:

wk1: ¥763 million ($7.5 million)wk2: ¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)wk3: ¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)wk4: ¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)wk5: ¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)wk6: ¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)wk7: ¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)wk8: ¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)wk9: ¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)wk10: ¥788 million ($7.7 million), +07%, ¥18.50 billion ($181.6 million) *Estimate*

 

:mouthdropped:

[Boxx93]

If Frozen passes Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and still manages to put The Avengers into danger as well that is when I am going to say this:

 

"Frozen is making WAY TOO MUCH MONEY BOY!!!"

 

I am not gonna say I doubt it will happen because at this point doubting Frozen´s potential is a very stupid thing to do

[BadAtGender]

1.3 billion seems like it might be a safe assumption. If it keeps up the current pace, it should get to $200m in Japan in the next two weeks, so it'd just need $75m or so beyond that to get there. So it should beat Avengers OS.

 

DH2 is a bit harder, because it requires it to get past $300 in Japan.  Tough call, but possible.

 

There's a chance it gets to $1b OS. although that's requiring Japan to get close to $400m

 

Avengers WW probably isn't going to happen, mostly because it needs over 1.1b to do it, so that would be saying that Japan alone is going to be at $500m. Which would be awesome, but it would probably need to not only continue to play strongly through the summer, but then not experience declines to it can take advantage of the New Years holiday. And then probably spring break... Again.

 

I'm not saying it can't, but that's mostly because we're pretty much in the territory where predictions are useless. There's no path to track that provides a guidance at this point. We may as well say it's tracking to earn an undecillion.

 

So, yeah, as much as I've said SK was the most impressive territory before, at this point Japan has supplanted it.

[druv10]

Per Corpse

 

It's run is unbelievable. It could end up above Titanic and come very close to Spirited Away.We might see final figures of:Gross: ¥27 billion ($265 million)Admissions: 21 millionMultiplier: 35.4Other achievements:18 Weeks at #125+ Weeks in the Top 10.Biggest 7th to unknown (so far 7th-10th) weekends.And remember it's only playing in 347 theaters. That's very wide for any film in Japan, but compared to China, Russia, UK, and I'm sure France, Germany, and other markets, it's very small."Let It Go" and the soundtrack are also setting their own records. The song (Japanese version) has been #1 for almost 2 months now I believe, and the soundtrack (after just 2 weeks) became the best-selling soundtrack for an animated film of all-time. It'll end up selling well over 1 million copies.

 

Even Corpse is slowly joining us. 

[LABAS]

toho 2pm 862641% plus fromlast Monday. All the other moviesdown. Elsa is crazy...