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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

By Corpse, in International Box Office

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RJ 95 Sleeper Hit

RJ 95

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

it looks like dropping from yesterday and over 50% drop from last week. I am sure it will recover tomorrow big time. But can it drop like 20% this weekend. @RJ 95 what do you think?

Currently it 20 minutes avg increase dropping only 35-40% from last week friday, but its early number before 1 pm dropping 60% (because last week more preasale heavy) make it seems like 50% drop but it will get better. Based on my projection so far, Friday drop will be 37-42%. Its evening business will be much more important.

 

For weekend, on second weekend saturday TS4 increase 173% from its Friday and increase again 21% on Sunday. Frozen 2 had shown last weekend that it can get better Saturday increase than TS4 and i think it will repeat that again. Lets say for Friday it only drop 40% and get 190% increase on Saturday. Also with discount Sunday ( first day of the month) it will increase again by 40-50% but avg lower ticket will drop on Sunday from 1.335 yen to 1.100 yen.

 

Friday : 98k (-40% over LW)

Saturday : 284k +190%

Sunday : 411k +45% ( so it's more like 338k sunday with normal avg tix)

622k weekend 

 

So 29.5% drop over last weekend for now.

 

Edited by RJ 95
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PKMLover Box Office Gold

PKMLover

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Currently it 20 minutes avg increase dropping only 35-40% from last week friday, but its early number before 1 pm dropping 60% (because last week more preasale heavy) make it seems like 50% drop but it will get better. Based on my projection so far, Friday drop will be 37-42%. Its evening business will be much more important.

 

For weekend, on second weekend saturday TS4 increase 173% from its Friday and increase again 21% on Sunday. Frozen 2 had shown last weekend that it can get better Saturday increase than TS4 but i think it will repeat that again. Lets say for Friday it only drop 40% and get 190% increase on Saturday. Also with discount Sunday ( first day of the month) it will increase again by 40-50% but avg lower ticket will drop on Sunday from 1.335 yen to 1.100 yen.

 

Friday : 98k (-40% over LW)

Saturday : 284k +190%

Sunday : 411k +45% ( so it's more like 340k sunday with normal avg tix)

624k weekend 

 

So 29.5% drop over last weekend for now.

 

Drop 29.5% is quite big..... bad sign for its legs?

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RJ 95 Sleeper Hit

RJ 95

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PKMLover said:

Drop 29.5% is quite big..... bad sign for its legs?

Its still just prediction, also Friday box office is still not even reach half of its total. So lets just wait, it also can get over 200% increase over today because i really think this is much more weekend heavy even with other animation movie.

29.5% isn't bad, its rather average. Neither bad or great. 

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RJ 95 Sleeper Hit

RJ 95

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

29% drop in admissions with discount tickets means bigger drop in gross? Plus next sunday will see bigger drop. but I would say its having a good run considering how big its OW was. But its definitely a HUGE weekend/holiday movie. So DIsney made a mistake in not opening during March like last one.

For 29% weekend drop i already calculated in both admission and gross. That's why if it can get 411k on Sunday. It means 340k Sunday with avg ticket gross, for 622k total weekend and 10.4m weekend.  . Will need confirmation though if all smaller theater chain also does 1100 yen discount ticket like all major theater chain. 

I guess with Japan is #1 OS market for Frozen 1, Disney just think it isn't right for them to wait 5 months like the first one, with this become probably most anticipated movie this year over there. 

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RJ 95 Sleeper Hit

RJ 95

Posted
Posted (edited)

Seems like i overestimate for today, from 10 am to 2 pm local time it rises quickly from 60% to 50% drop over last week. I thought it will get to 40% drop or at least close to it with its increase but somehow it drop to 48-49% right now. So far only Thursday number when i predict and actually close to it. I probably not use to animation off holiday drops pattern. Tracking Joker, Mal 2 or even Terminator daily number is much easier than this because every week pattern basically 

Monday = 0.4x previous Sunday, Tuesday = 0.7-0.75x Monday, Wednesday = Monday or 10% higher, Thursday= 0.65x Wednesday, Friday = 1.1-1.2x Thursday.    

 

This movie pattern so far is 

Monday = 0.24x Sunday

Tuesday = 0.62x Monday

Wednesday = 1.06x Monday

Thursday = 0.55x Wednesday

Friday (projection) = 1.31x Thursday

 

We still can't rule out tomorrow crazy increase. With this movie even 225% increase probably has to be considered.

Edited by RJ 95
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RJ 95 Sleeper Hit

RJ 95

Posted
Posted (edited)

Saturday should be as presale suggest dropping around 30-40%, Sunday as expected will be big with discount 1st day of month ( avg tix. will be dropping a bit though on Sunday). Also last weekend usual location took around 73% of whole market and opening Friday around 67%. 

 

If it really manages to drop 30-35% on Saturday then, 20-25% weekend drop is possible. 

Edited by RJ 95
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PKMLover said:

Passed Friday at 12.00 AM local time

My first reaction was “wow, that’s crazy.” Then I checked and realized that Sat presales in SK were already 37% of Friday final :hahaha:    
 

Anybody paying more attention to hourlies in this market wanna chime in what the morning rate seems to point to?

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PKMLover Box Office Gold

PKMLover

Posted
Posted

From Corpse:

A sub-20% second weekend decline that a lot of uber-openers typically see doesn't look to be in play, but a 30% or better hold seems likely. It's still early though, and second Sundays are more important to watch.

Anything better than a 38.1% drop gives it a ¥1 billion+ second weekend, and that's pretty much guaranteed. A 25-30% drop looks like the most likely range to me right now.

So look for a second weekend around ¥1.15/¥1.2 billion ($10.5-$11.0 million) at this moment. The Biggest Second Weekend record will probably always belong to Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (it managed to increase after a record opening weekend back in the day), but Frozen II will be aiming to crack the Top 5 on that list.
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