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hasanahmad

Tuesday box office estimates 5/23/2012 Avengers 4.8 BS 2.2 Dictator 2.1

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Nice. I predicted 4.8m yesterday. I knew some of you were predicting too harsh of a drop. Victoria Day didn't effect the BO that much, TA still dropped 67% on Monday.

What is your guess for today? 10%, 15% or more?
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1 Marvel's The Avengers $4,917,764 -14% 4,249 -100 $1,157 $468,271,215 3 Disney 2 Battleship $2,269,350 -4% 3,690 -- $615 $30,165,840 1 Universal 3 The Dictator $2,151,734 0% 3,008 -- $715 $28,785,272 1 Paramount 4 Dark Shadows $1,303,235 4% 3,755 0 $347 $53,280,153 2 Warner Bros. 5 What to Expect When You're Expecting $1,298,023 14% 3,021 -- $430 $12,983,380 1 Lionsgate 6 The Hunger Games $346,088 -2% 2,064 -467 $168 $392,280,533 9 Lionsgate 7 Think Like a Man $275,840 6% 1,722 -330 $160 $86,375,017 5 Sony / Screen Gems 8 The Lucky One (2012) $210,354 12% 2,005 -834 $105 $57,333,241 5 Warner Bros. 9 The Five-Year Engagement $152,750 8% 1,175 -1394 $130 $27,396,785 4 Universal 10 The Pirates! Band of Misfits $147,023 -41% 1,840 -1239 $80 $25,886,807 4 Sony / Columbia Limited (100 — 999) # Title Tue, May. 22 2012 Locations Avg. Total Wks. Dist. 1 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $521,656 0% 354 176 $1,474 $9,271,975 3 Fox Searchlight

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I posted this in Monday's thread.5.7m4.8m (-16%)3.8m (-20%)3.8m (+0%)9.6m (+152%)14m (+47%)13.1m (-7%)10.5m (-20%)36.7m 3 day (-34% drop) 47.2m 4 day (-15% drop)

Very good but I am greedy plus I think Sunday could have a softer drop than what you have.
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1 Marvel's The Avengers $4,917,764 -14% 4,249 -100 $1,157 $468,271,215 3 Disney2 Battleship $2,269,350 -4% 3,690 -- $615 $30,165,840 1 Universal3 The Dictator $2,151,734 0% 3,008 -- $715 $28,785,272 1 Paramount4 Dark Shadows $1,303,235 4% 3,755 0 $347 $53,280,153 2 Warner Bros.5 What to Expect When You're Expecting $1,298,023 14% 3,021 -- $430 $12,983,380 1 Lionsgate6 The Hunger Games $346,088 -2% 2,064 -467 $168 $392,280,533 9 Lionsgate7 Think Like a Man $275,840 6% 1,722 -330 $160 $86,375,017 5 Sony / Screen Gems8 The Lucky One (2012) $210,354 12% 2,005 -834 $105 $57,333,241 5 Warner Bros.9 The Five-Year Engagement $152,750 8% 1,175 -1394 $130 $27,396,785 4 Universal10 The Pirates! Band of Misfits $147,023 -41% 1,840 -1239 $80 $25,886,807 4 Sony / ColumbiaLimited (100 — 999) # Title Tue, May. 22 2012 Locations Avg. Total Wks. Dist.1 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $521,656 0% 354 176 $1,474 $9,271,975 3 Fox Searchlight

Dark Shadows increased. What to expect has a big increase 14%. Edited by ECSTASY
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I posted this in Monday's thread.5.7m4.8m (-16%)3.8m (-20%)3.8m (+0%)9.6m (+152%)14m (+47%)13.1m (-7%)10.5m (-20%)36.7m 3 day (-34% drop) 47.2m 4 day (-15% drop)

500m here we come.
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I like blackspider weekend prediction. I am hoping TA can sniff a 50 million 4day.

I'm hoping to win the lottery tonight as well.
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TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day
1 1 Marvel's The Avengers BV $4,917,764 -14% -42% 4,249 $1,157 $468,271,215 19
2 2 Battleship Uni. $2,269,350 -4% - 3,690 $615 $30,165,840 5
3 3 The Dictator Par. $2,151,734 -0% - 3,008 $715 $28,785,272 7
4 4 Dark Shadows WB $1,303,235 +4% -50% 3,755 $347 $53,280,153 12
5 5 What to Expect When You're Expecting LGF $1,298,023 +14% - 3,021 $430 $12,983,380 5
6 6 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FoxS $521,656 -0% +50% 354 $1,474 $9,271,975 19
7 7 The Hunger Games LGF $346,088 -2% -26% 2,064 $168 $392,280,533 61
8 8 Think Like a Man SGem $275,840 +6% -47% 1,722 $160 $86,375,017 33
9 10 The Lucky One WB $210,354 +12% -51% 2,005 $105 $57,333,241 33
10 11 The Five-Year Engagement Uni. $152,750 +8% -67% 1,175 $130 $27,396,785 26
11 9 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony $147,023 -41% -42% 1,840 $80 $25,886,807 26
12 12 Chimpanzee BV $96,190 +16% -47% 895 $107 $27,187,671 33
- - To the Arctic (IMAX) WB $54,113 -8% +27% 49 $1,104 $1,948,207 33
- - The Cabin in the Woods LGF $51,642 -6% -60% 448 $115 $40,658,455 40

 

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I want to see TA have a great hold this weekend too, but wanting to see it fall less than 7% on Sunday seems way too optimistic to me.

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Actually the opposite. If the 3D share dropped and the overall gross percentage drop was steady, that means attendance actually increased (in relative percentage) to offset the lost 3D revenue.If we look at 3D share for first weekend, second weekend and third weekend what I suspect we'll see is that TA's actual attendance is holding better than the final numbers indicate. In other words, the drop is in part due to a shift from 3D to 2D (and I also personally believe the number of children tickets purchases has increased, but there's no way to track that).

There really was no reason for 3D share to continue dropping after the 2nd weekend. We know it was at 60% on the OW, and possibly around 55% on the 2nd and 3rd.This weekend it's going to drop to 40% because of the loss of 3D screens.
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